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World Modeling

Core TagLast edit: 9 Feb 2024 2:15 UTC by jimrandomh

World Modeling is getting curious about how the world works. It’s diving into wikipedia, it’s running a survey to get data from your friends, it’s dropping balls from different heights and measuring how long they take to fall. Empiricism, scholarship, googling, introspection, data-gathering, science. Applying your epistemology and curiosity, finding out how the damn thing works, and writing it down for the rest of us.

The eleventh virtue is scholarship. Study many sciences and absorb their power as your own. Each field that you consume makes you larger. If you swallow enough sciences the gaps between them will diminish and your knowledge will become a unified whole. If you are gluttonous you will become vaster than mountains.

Twelve Virtues of Rationality


World Modeling Sub-Topics

Mathematical Sciences

Abstraction
Anthropics
Category Theory
Causality
Game Theory
Decision Theory
Information Theory
Logic & Mathematics
Probability & Statistics

Specifics
Prisoner’s Dilemma

General Science & Eng

Machine Learning
Nanotechnology
Physics
Programming
Space Exploration & Colonization

Specifics
The Great Filter

Meta /​ Misc

Academic Papers
Book Reviews
Distillation & Pedagogy
Fact Posts
Research Agendas
Scholarship & Learning

Social & Economic

Economics
Financial Investing
History
Politics
Progress Studies
Social and Cultural Dynamics

Specifics
Conflict vs Mistake Theory
Cost Disease
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Industrial Revolution
Moral Mazes
Signaling
Social Reality
Social Status

Biological & Psychological

Aging
Biology
Consciousness
Evolution
Evolutionary Psychology
Medicine
Neuroscience
Qualia

Specifics
Coronavirus
General Intelligence
IQ /​ g-factor
Neocortex

The Practice of Modeling

Epistemic Review
Expertise
Gears-Level Models
Falsifiability
Forecasting & Prediction
Forecasts (Lists of)
Inside/​Outside View
Jargon (meta)
Practice and Philosophy of Science
Prediction Markets
Reductionism
Replicability

A definition by elimination

Properly considered, the overwhelming majority of content LessWrong is about modeling how the world is, including almost all posts on Rationality and all practical advice. The intended usage of World Modeling is to capture all content describing how the world is that is not captured by the more specific major tags of Rationality, World Optimization, and AI.

If content warrants a no to all of the above questions, then it is likely to be both relatively pure world modeling (not about optimizing in any direct way) and not already covered by an existing major category. It is then a good fit for the World Modeling category. Stuff like math, science, history

Some more examples

A study of how people historically exercised is World Modeling. Advice on the optimal way to exercise in the present day is World Optimization. A study of the Fall of Rome would be World Modeling. A review of current policies being discussed by people who want to cause changes in a present government should be classified as Optimization. It would be World Modeling too only if it is expected to be of interest to people with no immediate plans to try to alter government, for example a review on the effects of marijuana on productivity, driving, IQ, etc.

A Crash Course in the Neu­ro­science of Hu­man Motivation

lukeprog19 Aug 2011 21:15 UTC
196 points
92 comments38 min readLW link

A non-mag­i­cal ex­pla­na­tion of Jeffrey Epstein

lc28 Dec 2021 21:15 UTC
254 points
56 comments15 min readLW link1 review

Model­ling Trans­for­ma­tive AI Risks (MTAIR) Pro­ject: Introduction

16 Aug 2021 7:12 UTC
89 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Quan­tum Explanations

Eliezer Yudkowsky9 Apr 2008 8:15 UTC
77 points
59 comments6 min readLW link

Monopoly: A Man­i­festo and Fact Post

sarahconstantin31 May 2018 18:40 UTC
33 points
65 comments5 min readLW link
(srconstantin.wordpress.com)

Dis­con­tin­u­ous progress in his­tory: an update

KatjaGrace14 Apr 2020 0:00 UTC
179 points
25 comments31 min readLW link1 review
(aiimpacts.org)

Fact Posts: How and Why

sarahconstantin2 Dec 2016 18:55 UTC
229 points
33 comments3 min readLW link

Why “Chang­ing the World” is a Hor­rible Phrase

ozziegooen25 Dec 2014 6:04 UTC
38 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

Tech­nol­ogy Changes Constraints

johnswentworth25 Jan 2020 23:13 UTC
106 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Co­or­di­na­tion Prob­lems in Evolu­tion: Ei­gen’s Paradox

Martin Sustrik12 Oct 2018 12:40 UTC
101 points
6 comments8 min readLW link
(250bpm.com)

In­sights from Eu­clid’s ‘Ele­ments’

TurnTrout4 May 2020 15:45 UTC
124 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

Liter­a­ture Re­view For Aca­demic Out­siders: What, How, and Why

namespace9 May 2020 22:58 UTC
177 points
6 comments15 min readLW link
(www.thelastrationalist.com)

Fix­ing The Good Reg­u­la­tor Theorem

johnswentworth9 Feb 2021 20:30 UTC
123 points
25 comments8 min readLW link

Trans­porta­tion as a Constraint

johnswentworth6 Apr 2020 4:58 UTC
173 points
27 comments6 min readLW link1 review

A rev­olu­tion in philos­o­phy: the rise of con­cep­tual engineering

Suspended Reason2 Jun 2020 18:30 UTC
127 points
50 comments21 min readLW link

“Win First” vs “Chill First”

lionhearted (Sebastian Marshall)28 Sep 2020 6:48 UTC
91 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling

Zvi6 Jan 2021 18:30 UTC
107 points
22 comments14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

How to Mea­sure Anything

lukeprog7 Aug 2013 4:05 UTC
101 points
52 comments22 min readLW link

Si­mu­lacra Levels and their Interactions

Zvi15 Jun 2020 13:10 UTC
190 points
48 comments17 min readLW link1 review
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Covid 12/​24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over

Zvi24 Dec 2020 15:10 UTC
276 points
147 comments31 min readLW link2 reviews
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

What failure looks like

paulfchristiano17 Mar 2019 20:18 UTC
319 points
49 comments8 min readLW link2 reviews

In Defense of Politics

ChristianKl10 Apr 2020 19:26 UTC
16 points
23 comments7 min readLW link

Paper-Read­ing for Gears

johnswentworth4 Dec 2019 21:02 UTC
150 points
6 comments4 min readLW link1 review

A non-mys­ti­cal ex­pla­na­tion of in­sight med­i­ta­tion and the three char­ac­ter­is­tics of ex­is­tence: in­tro­duc­tion and preamble

Kaj_Sotala5 May 2020 19:09 UTC
114 points
37 comments12 min readLW link

Six eco­nomics mis­con­cep­tions of mine which I’ve re­solved over the last few years

Buck13 Jul 2020 3:01 UTC
189 points
58 comments9 min readLW link

Spaghetti Towers

eukaryote22 Dec 2018 5:29 UTC
146 points
25 comments3 min readLW link1 review
(eukaryotewritesblog.com)

There’s no such thing as a tree (phy­lo­ge­net­i­cally)

eukaryote3 May 2021 3:47 UTC
305 points
52 comments7 min readLW link2 reviews
(eukaryotewritesblog.com)

Re­view: For­agers, Farm­ers, and Fos­sil Fuels

L Rudolf L2 Sep 2021 17:59 UTC
23 points
7 comments25 min readLW link
(strataoftheworld.blogspot.com)

Reflec­tions on six months of fatherhood

jasoncrawford31 Jan 2022 5:28 UTC
337 points
21 comments4 min readLW link
(jasoncrawford.org)

An Alter­na­tive In­ter­pre­ta­tion of Physics

dadadarren9 May 2022 0:52 UTC
18 points
10 comments5 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Repli­ca­tion Dy­nam­ics Bridge to RL in Ther­mo­dy­namic Limit

Zachary Robertson18 May 2020 1:02 UTC
6 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

We’ve built Con­nected Papers—a vi­sual tool for re­searchers to find and ex­plore aca­demic papers

discordy8 Jun 2020 18:44 UTC
202 points
41 comments2 min readLW link

How to an­a­lyze progress, stag­na­tion, and low-hang­ing fruit

jasoncrawford15 Jun 2020 21:02 UTC
42 points
9 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Model­ling Con­tin­u­ous Progress

Sammy Martin23 Jun 2020 18:06 UTC
29 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] What could one do with truly un­limited com­pu­ta­tional power?

Yitz11 Nov 2020 10:03 UTC
30 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

Dark Matters

Diffractor14 Mar 2021 23:36 UTC
226 points
24 comments15 min readLW link

Vari­ables Don’t Rep­re­sent The Phys­i­cal World (And That’s OK)

johnswentworth16 Jun 2021 19:05 UTC
41 points
16 comments3 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Be­ing You by Anil Seth

Alexander26 Oct 2021 5:44 UTC
32 points
20 comments11 min readLW link

Ret­ro­spec­tive forecasting

Ege Erdil30 Jan 2022 16:38 UTC
21 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Hu­man val­ues & bi­ases are in­ac­cessible to the genome

TurnTrout7 Jul 2022 17:29 UTC
92 points
51 comments6 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­ing Past­cast­ing: A tool for fore­cast­ing practice

Sage Future11 Aug 2022 17:38 UTC
86 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

The His­tory of Color in Chinese

lsusr12 Apr 2020 4:05 UTC
30 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.lsusr.com)

Con­sid­er­a­tions On Cost Disease

Scott Alexander10 Feb 2017 4:33 UTC
43 points
7 comments22 min readLW link

Every sys­tem seems ran­dom from the inside

eapache19 Apr 2020 23:02 UTC
11 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

So­lar sys­tem colon­i­sa­tion might not be driven by economics

Stuart_Armstrong21 Apr 2020 17:10 UTC
26 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

The Best Text­books on Every Subject

lukeprog16 Jan 2011 8:30 UTC
597 points
394 comments7 min readLW link

Sex, Lies, and Canaanites

Jacob Falkovich23 Apr 2020 16:26 UTC
16 points
2 comments14 min readLW link

Me­la­tonin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott Alexander11 Jul 2018 17:40 UTC
109 points
18 comments15 min readLW link
(slatestarcodex.com)

Writ­ing Causal Models Like We Write Programs

johnswentworth5 May 2020 18:05 UTC
76 points
8 comments4 min readLW link

English Bread Regulations

jefftk18 May 2020 13:20 UTC
17 points
10 comments6 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Point­ing to a Flower

johnswentworth18 May 2020 18:54 UTC
59 points
18 comments9 min readLW link

What a 20-year-lead in mil­i­tary tech might look like

Daniel Kokotajlo29 Jul 2020 20:10 UTC
68 points
44 comments16 min readLW link

My pa­per was sig­nal­ling the whole time—Robin Han­son wins again

Tim Liptrot4 Aug 2020 21:13 UTC
49 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are some low-in­for­ma­tion pri­ors that you find prac­ti­cally use­ful for think­ing about the world?

Linch7 Aug 2020 4:37 UTC
27 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Are Amer­i­cans Be­com­ing More De­pressed?

calebo7 Aug 2020 15:57 UTC
26 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Out­come Ter­minol­ogy?

Dach14 Sep 2020 18:04 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Large Effects Can’t Prove Small Causes

Bucky6 Oct 2020 17:34 UTC
23 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Alpha α and Beta β

lsusr10 Oct 2020 6:27 UTC
9 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

No Cau­sa­tion with­out Reification

Gordon Seidoh Worley23 Oct 2020 20:28 UTC
23 points
38 comments3 min readLW link

How do you read the news crit­i­cally?

ChristianKl31 Oct 2020 11:48 UTC
39 points
15 comments9 min readLW link

Open Prob­lems Create Paradigms

johnswentworth9 Nov 2020 20:04 UTC
49 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Model Depth as Panacea and Obfuscator

abstractapplic9 Nov 2020 0:02 UTC
8 points
3 comments15 min readLW link

The Power of Annealing

meanderingmoose14 Dec 2020 11:02 UTC
25 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Build­ing Blocks of Poli­tics: An Overview of Selec­torate Theory

Yoav Ravid12 Oct 2021 11:27 UTC
69 points
23 comments47 min readLW link1 review

Tech­nolog­i­cal stag­na­tion: Why I came around

jasoncrawford23 Jan 2021 22:05 UTC
187 points
76 comments8 min readLW link1 review
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] What are some real life Inad­e­quate Equil­ibria?

Eli Tyre29 Jan 2021 12:17 UTC
49 points
63 comments3 min readLW link

Clar­ifi­ca­tions on tech stagnation

jasoncrawford31 Jan 2021 0:59 UTC
20 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Eco­nomic Class

lsusr2 Mar 2021 1:58 UTC
24 points
16 comments3 min readLW link

How To Think About Over­pa­ram­e­ter­ized Models

johnswentworth3 Mar 2021 22:29 UTC
64 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

I’m still mys­tified by the Born rule

So8res4 Mar 2021 2:35 UTC
88 points
43 comments10 min readLW link

Gossip

Yoav Ravid21 Mar 2021 13:36 UTC
12 points
7 comments11 min readLW link

The best fre­quently don’t rise to the top

Adam Zerner25 Mar 2021 6:10 UTC
34 points
37 comments4 min readLW link

We need a ca­reer path for invention

jasoncrawford29 Apr 2021 18:11 UTC
51 points
18 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Your Dog is Even Smarter Than You Think

StyleOfDog1 May 2021 5:16 UTC
244 points
105 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] Is driv­ing worth the risk?

Adam Zerner11 May 2021 5:04 UTC
26 points
29 comments7 min readLW link

Data on fore­cast­ing ac­cu­racy across differ­ent time hori­zons and lev­els of fore­caster experience

CharlesD27 May 2021 18:53 UTC
25 points
0 comments23 min readLW link

So­cial be­hav­ior curves, equil­ibria, and radicalism

Eric Neyman5 Jun 2021 1:39 UTC
183 points
18 comments20 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Why did we wait so long for the thresh­ing ma­chine?

jasoncrawford29 Jun 2021 19:55 UTC
100 points
19 comments12 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Prac­ti­cal an­throp­ics summary

Stuart_Armstrong8 Jul 2021 15:10 UTC
14 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and Fermi: grabby, visi­ble, zoo-keep­ing, and early aliens

Stuart_Armstrong8 Jul 2021 15:07 UTC
14 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Progress, Stag­na­tion, & Collapse

abramdemski22 Jul 2021 16:51 UTC
38 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] What does know­ing the her­i­ta­bil­ity of a trait tell me in prac­tice?

Kaj_Sotala26 Jul 2021 16:29 UTC
58 points
22 comments4 min readLW link

Analo­gies and Gen­eral Pri­ors on Intelligence

20 Aug 2021 21:03 UTC
57 points
12 comments14 min readLW link

Hu­man­ity is Win­ning the Fight Against In­fec­tious Disease

lsusr30 Aug 2021 1:31 UTC
60 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

We Live in an Era of Un­prece­dented World Peace

lsusr30 Aug 2021 22:25 UTC
27 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

[Cross­post] On Hreha On Be­hav­ioral Economics

Scott Alexander31 Aug 2021 18:14 UTC
95 points
6 comments22 min readLW link

How fac­to­ries were made safe

jasoncrawford12 Sep 2021 19:58 UTC
140 points
44 comments18 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

In­sights from Modern Prin­ci­ples of Economics

TurnTrout22 Sep 2021 5:19 UTC
70 points
63 comments13 min readLW link

[Sum­mary] “In­tro­duc­tion to Elec­tro­dy­nam­ics” by David Griffiths—Part 1

lsusr22 Sep 2021 22:22 UTC
24 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Epistemic Strate­gies of Selec­tion Theorems

adamShimi18 Oct 2021 8:57 UTC
32 points
1 comment12 min readLW link

Post­mod­ern Warfare

lsusr25 Oct 2021 9:02 UTC
61 points
25 comments2 min readLW link

We Live in a Post-Scarcity Society

lsusr30 Oct 2021 12:05 UTC
50 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] “The Bell Curve” by Charles Murray

lsusr2 Nov 2021 5:49 UTC
93 points
135 comments23 min readLW link

Chu are you?

Adele Lopez6 Nov 2021 17:39 UTC
60 points
7 comments9 min readLW link
(adelelopez.com)

Robin Han­son’s Grabby Aliens model ex­plained—part 2

Writer9 Nov 2021 17:43 UTC
8 points
3 comments13 min readLW link
(youtu.be)

Are big brains for pro­cess­ing sen­sory in­put?

lsusr10 Dec 2021 7:08 UTC
43 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Ran­dom facts can come back to bite you

tailcalled22 Dec 2021 17:33 UTC
56 points
7 comments2 min readLW link1 review

[Question] Does Braess’s para­dox show up in mar­kets?

TekhneMakre29 Dec 2021 12:09 UTC
31 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are sane rea­sons that Covid data is treated as re­li­able?

Valentine1 Jan 2022 18:47 UTC
41 points
34 comments2 min readLW link

The Map-Ter­ri­tory Distinc­tion Creates Confusion

Gordon Seidoh Worley4 Jan 2022 15:49 UTC
27 points
50 comments4 min readLW link

Be­fore Colour TV, Peo­ple Dreamed in Black and White

Sam Enright1 Feb 2022 12:50 UTC
57 points
24 comments2 min readLW link

Shot­gun Book Re­views: Against Method, The Knowl­edge Ma­chine and Un­der­stand­ing Nature

adamShimi14 Mar 2022 8:13 UTC
27 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Is Grabby Aliens built on good an­thropic rea­son­ing?

Steven Byrnes17 Mar 2022 14:12 UTC
35 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

Ac­count­ing For Col­lege Costs

johnswentworth1 Apr 2022 17:28 UTC
340 points
41 comments7 min readLW link

The Jor­dan Peter­son vs Sam Har­ris Debate

lsusr4 Apr 2022 0:55 UTC
21 points
25 comments6 min readLW link

What is causal­ity to an ev­i­den­tial de­ci­sion the­o­rist?

paulfchristiano17 Apr 2022 16:00 UTC
44 points
26 comments5 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

Repli­cat­ing and ex­tend­ing the grabby aliens model

Tristan Cook23 Apr 2022 0:38 UTC
68 points
22 comments51 min readLW link

The Game of Masks

Slimepriestess27 Apr 2022 18:03 UTC
49 points
18 comments11 min readLW link
(hivewired.wordpress.com)

Ion Im­plan­ta­tion: The­ory, Equip­ment, Pro­cess, Alternatives

ethanmorse8 May 2022 22:30 UTC
5 points
0 comments16 min readLW link
(210ethan.github.io)

Fact post: pro­ject-based learning

dominicq2 Jun 2022 20:18 UTC
11 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

It’s Prob­a­bly Not Lithium

Natália28 Jun 2022 21:24 UTC
423 points
181 comments28 min readLW link

The Reader’s Guide to Op­ti­mal Mone­tary Policy

Ege Erdil25 Jul 2022 15:10 UTC
56 points
10 comments14 min readLW link

Fiber arts, mys­te­ri­ous do­dec­a­he­drons, and wait­ing on “Eureka!”

eukaryote4 Aug 2022 20:37 UTC
106 points
9 comments9 min readLW link
(eukaryotewritesblog.com)

The Book of The Machines (Chap­ter 8)

Justin Bullock7 Oct 2022 19:07 UTC
2 points
0 comments40 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­tion to ab­stract entropy

Alex_Altair20 Oct 2022 21:03 UTC
194 points
70 comments18 min readLW link

Sig­nals of war in Au­gust 2021

yieldthought26 Oct 2022 8:11 UTC
66 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Have epistemic con­di­tions always been this bad?

Wei Dai25 Jan 2020 4:42 UTC
194 points
107 comments4 min readLW link1 review

The World Ac­cord­ing to Do­minic Cummings

Chris_Leong14 Apr 2020 5:05 UTC
58 points
10 comments7 min readLW link

Mar­ijuana: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott Alexander5 Jan 2014 20:41 UTC
25 points
1 comment19 min readLW link

[Question] What are your fa­vorite ex­am­ples of dis­til­la­tion?

NaiveTortoise25 Apr 2020 17:06 UTC
49 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

SlateS­tarCodex 2020 Pre­dic­tions: Buy, Sell, Hold

Zvi1 May 2020 14:30 UTC
53 points
15 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The Tails Com­ing Apart As Me­taphor For Life

Scott Alexander25 Sep 2018 19:10 UTC
137 points
37 comments7 min readLW link4 reviews
(slatestarcodex.com)

In­tro­duc­tion to In­tro­duc­tion to Cat­e­gory Theory

countedblessings6 Oct 2019 14:43 UTC
108 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

A Prob­lem With Patternism

B Jacobs19 May 2020 20:16 UTC
5 points
52 comments1 min readLW link

Im­mor­tal­ity: A Prac­ti­cal Guide

G0W5126 Jan 2015 16:17 UTC
52 points
61 comments37 min readLW link

Every­day Les­sons from High-Di­men­sional Optimization

johnswentworth6 Jun 2020 20:57 UTC
152 points
37 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] By what met­ric do you judge a refer­ence class?

B Jacobs15 Jun 2020 18:34 UTC
7 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Me­di­a­tors of History

johnswentworth27 Jun 2020 19:55 UTC
25 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

The Se­cond Law of Ther­mo­dy­nam­ics, and Eng­ines of Cognition

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 Feb 2008 0:48 UTC
141 points
71 comments9 min readLW link

The Equa­tion of Knowledge

Lê Nguyên Hoang7 Jul 2020 16:09 UTC
58 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Gödel In­com­plete­ness: For Dummies

jollybard12 Jul 2020 9:13 UTC
9 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Life Through Quan­tum An­neal­ing: How a quan­tum com­put­ing tech­nique could shape existence

ChrisM13 Jul 2020 22:48 UTC
2 points
1 comment16 min readLW link

Swiss Poli­ti­cal Sys­tem: More than You ever Wanted to Know (I.)

Martin Sustrik19 Jul 2020 1:11 UTC
158 points
38 comments24 min readLW link2 reviews

A Model of On­tolog­i­cal Development

Gordon Seidoh Worley31 Dec 2020 1:55 UTC
25 points
6 comments24 min readLW link

“Go west, young man!”—Prefer­ences in (im­perfect) maps

Stuart_Armstrong31 Jul 2020 7:50 UTC
24 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

In praise of fake frameworks

Valentine11 Jul 2017 2:12 UTC
85 points
14 comments7 min readLW link

Sapiens

Vaniver8 Apr 2015 2:56 UTC
70 points
12 comments13 min readLW link

So­cial Interfaces

thoughtfulmadison9 Aug 2020 18:13 UTC
14 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Swiss Poli­ti­cal Sys­tem: More than You ever Wanted to Know (III.)

Martin Sustrik11 Aug 2020 5:09 UTC
71 points
7 comments22 min readLW link

Moloch and multi-level selection

thoughtfulmadison11 Aug 2020 7:08 UTC
19 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Sta­tus for sta­tus sake is a fact of poli­ti­cal life

Tim Liptrot18 Aug 2020 22:06 UTC
10 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Em­pa­thetic vs In­trin­sic Oof

Ronny Fernandez24 Aug 2020 0:12 UTC
8 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Changes in Reality

eapache7 Sep 2020 16:18 UTC
5 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

A Toy Model of Hingeyness

B Jacobs7 Sep 2020 17:38 UTC
16 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

The Short Case for Verificationism

ike11 Sep 2020 18:48 UTC
6 points
57 comments1 min readLW link

God in the Loop: How a Causal Loop Could Shape Existence

ChrisM15 Sep 2020 14:40 UTC
1 point
4 comments17 min readLW link

[Question] What is com­plex­ity sci­ence? (Not com­pu­ta­tional com­plex­ity the­ory) How use­ful is it? What ar­eas is it re­lated to?

philip_b26 Sep 2020 9:15 UTC
5 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

The Felt Sense: What, Why and How

Kaj_Sotala5 Oct 2020 15:57 UTC
141 points
21 comments14 min readLW link1 review

[Question] Inac­cessible finely tuned RNG in hu­mans?

Sandi7 Oct 2020 17:04 UTC
23 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Effec­tive Epidemiology

Mike Harris22 Oct 2020 19:45 UTC
25 points
13 comments9 min readLW link

The Power & Tragedy of Names

SocratesDissatisfied6 Nov 2020 22:50 UTC
12 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Anti-EMH Ev­i­dence (and a plea for help)

Wei Dai5 Dec 2020 18:29 UTC
94 points
47 comments5 min readLW link

How long does it take to be­come Gaus­sian?

Maxwell Peterson8 Dec 2020 7:23 UTC
134 points
38 comments4 min readLW link

D&D.Sci Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

abstractapplic12 Dec 2020 15:00 UTC
40 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Would the Real Econ­omy Please Stand Up

eapache28 Dec 2020 14:05 UTC
22 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Evolu­tions Build­ing Evolu­tions: Lay­ers of Gen­er­ate and Test

plex5 Feb 2021 18:21 UTC
11 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

How my school gamed the stats

Srdjan Miletic20 Feb 2021 19:23 UTC
78 points
26 comments4 min readLW link

What is the VIX?

Annapurna26 Feb 2021 1:05 UTC
21 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

We should not raise awareness

lsusr1 Mar 2021 8:46 UTC
34 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

D&D.Sci III: Mancer Matchups

abstractapplic5 Mar 2021 19:07 UTC
19 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

Un­con­ve­nient con­se­quences of the logic be­hind the sec­ond law of thermodynamics

Marco Discendenti7 Mar 2021 18:14 UTC
9 points
45 comments2 min readLW link

Many meth­ods of causal in­fer­ence try to iden­tify a “safe” sub­set of variation

tailcalled30 Mar 2021 14:36 UTC
13 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

Spe­cial­iz­ing in Prob­lems We Don’t Understand

johnswentworth10 Apr 2021 22:40 UTC
144 points
28 comments8 min readLW link

Elec­tion re­sults in Cen­tral Europe match some pre-WW1 borders

ForensicOceanography24 Apr 2021 6:24 UTC
19 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

The Neu­ral­ink Mon­key Demo

scroogemcduck13 May 2021 2:29 UTC
19 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Alzheimer’s, Hunt­ing­ton’s and Mi­to­chon­dria Part 2: Glu­cose Metabolism

J Bostock3 May 2021 14:47 UTC
9 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Could MMRPGs be used to test eco­nomic the­o­ries?

Yair Halberstadt6 May 2021 14:26 UTC
7 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

a vi­sual ex­pla­na­tion of Bayesian updating

Jan Christian Refsgaard8 May 2021 19:45 UTC
20 points
7 comments3 min readLW link
(www.badprior.com)

Tech­no­cratic Plim­soll Line

Martin Sustrik15 May 2021 8:34 UTC
50 points
15 comments5 min readLW link

Ab­strac­tions and translation

Amir Bolous20 May 2021 2:45 UTC
5 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

[Question] What are good re­sources for gears mod­els of joint health?

Randomized, Controlled6 Jun 2021 17:39 UTC
12 points
47 comments1 min readLW link

Im­prov­ing par­li­a­men­tary in­for­ma­tion processing

victorsintnicolaas26 Jun 2021 16:11 UTC
2 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

In­tro to Debt Crises

Connor_Flexman28 Jun 2021 23:50 UTC
59 points
5 comments10 min readLW link

Anal­y­sis of World Records in Speedrun­ning [LINKPOST]

Jsevillamol4 Aug 2021 15:26 UTC
64 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Book re­view: Knowl­edge and De­ci­sions by Thomas Sowell

victorsintnicolaas8 Aug 2021 17:05 UTC
23 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] Altered Traits

lsusr23 Sep 2021 0:33 UTC
62 points
12 comments11 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Who We Are and How We Got Here

Yair Halberstadt24 Sep 2021 5:05 UTC
16 points
4 comments15 min readLW link

An anal­y­sis of the Less Wrong D&D.Sci 4th Edi­tion game

Maxwell Peterson4 Oct 2021 0:03 UTC
14 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

Nu­clear Es­pi­onage and AI Governance

GAA4 Oct 2021 23:04 UTC
26 points
5 comments24 min readLW link

An Un­ex­pected Vic­tory: Con­tainer Stack­ing at the Port of Long Beach

Zvi28 Oct 2021 14:40 UTC
286 points
40 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Is ge­net­ics “dark”?

David Hugh-Jones1 Nov 2021 18:23 UTC
40 points
12 comments5 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

A Brief In­tro­duc­tion to Con­tainer Logistics

Vitor11 Nov 2021 15:58 UTC
245 points
22 comments11 min readLW link1 review

Equity pre­mium puzzles

16 Nov 2021 20:50 UTC
19 points
4 comments12 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

A Bayesian Ag­gre­ga­tion Paradox

Jsevillamol22 Nov 2021 10:39 UTC
73 points
22 comments7 min readLW link

Why Study Physics?

johnswentworth27 Nov 2021 22:30 UTC
65 points
30 comments3 min readLW link

The Learn­ing System

Henrik Karlsson3 Dec 2021 19:08 UTC
16 points
12 comments10 min readLW link
(escapingflatland.substack.com)

A Pos­si­ble Re­s­olu­tion To Spu­ri­ous Counterfactuals

JoshuaOSHickman6 Dec 2021 18:26 UTC
15 points
5 comments4 min readLW link

Per­ish­able Knowledge

lsusr18 Dec 2021 5:53 UTC
98 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What is a prob­a­bil­is­tic phys­i­cal the­ory?

Ege Erdil25 Dec 2021 16:30 UTC
15 points
36 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Can each event in the world be at­tributed con­di­tions un­der which it oc­curs?

Maciej Jałocha1 Jan 2022 16:02 UTC
1 point
3 comments1 min readLW link

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 2 (pref­ace)

Pablo Repetto1 Jan 2022 17:40 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 2 (solu­tion)

Pablo Repetto17 Jan 2022 17:41 UTC
10 points
8 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Lives of the Cam­bridge poly­math geniuses

Owain_Evans25 Jan 2022 4:45 UTC
101 points
40 comments3 min readLW link

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 3 (solu­tion)

Pablo Repetto26 Jan 2022 22:18 UTC
12 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Full Non-In­dex­i­cal Con­di­tion­ing Also As­sumes A Self Sam­pling Pro­cess.

dadadarren12 Feb 2022 1:46 UTC
7 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

D&D.SCP: Ano­ma­lous Acquisitions

aphyer12 Feb 2022 16:03 UTC
44 points
26 comments9 min readLW link

In­tro to Nat­u­ral­ism: Orientation

13 Feb 2022 7:52 UTC
153 points
19 comments7 min readLW link

Knowing

LoganStrohl13 Feb 2022 7:53 UTC
81 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

How Many (Smallish) Or­ganic Com­pounds Are There?

chemslug20 Feb 2022 4:43 UTC
22 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

Am­bi­guity causes conflict

Ege Erdil26 Feb 2022 16:53 UTC
24 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a good dataset for the mo­ments of the in­come dis­tri­bu­tion through­out his­tory?

Ege Erdil12 Mar 2022 13:26 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Is there a link be­tween Im­mi­gra­tion Policy and In­fla­tion?

hawkebia17 Mar 2022 11:26 UTC
9 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

The On­tics and The Decouplers

hawkebia24 Mar 2022 14:04 UTC
11 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

We should stop be­ing so con­fi­dent that AI co­or­di­na­tion is unlikely

trevor11 Apr 2022 22:27 UTC
14 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

April was weird

lsusr22 Apr 2022 16:07 UTC
14 points
16 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Model­ing hu­man­ity’s ro­bust­ness to GCRs?

Fer32dwt34r3dfsz9 Jun 2022 17:34 UTC
2 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Was the In­dus­trial Revolu­tion The In­dus­trial Revolu­tion?

Davis Kedrosky14 Jun 2022 14:48 UTC
29 points
0 comments12 min readLW link
(daviskedrosky.substack.com)

De­liber­a­tion, Re­ac­tions, and Con­trol: Ten­ta­tive Defi­ni­tions and a Res­tate­ment of In­stru­men­tal Convergence

Oliver Sourbut27 Jun 2022 17:25 UTC
10 points
0 comments11 min readLW link

1689: Un­cov­er­ing the World New In­sti­tu­tion­al­ism Created

Davis Kedrosky17 Jun 2022 19:32 UTC
7 points
0 comments9 min readLW link
(daviskedrosky.substack.com)

Heb­bian Learn­ing Is More Com­mon Than You Think

Aleksi Liimatainen19 Jun 2022 15:57 UTC
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

De­liber­a­tion Every­where: Sim­ple Examples

Oliver Sourbut27 Jun 2022 17:26 UTC
14 points
0 comments15 min readLW link

On The Spec­trum, On The Guest List: (vii) The Marquee

party girl25 Jun 2022 16:54 UTC
5 points
0 comments19 min readLW link
(onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com)

Fore­casts are not enough

Ege Erdil30 Jun 2022 22:00 UTC
38 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

What Is The True Name of Mo­du­lar­ity?

1 Jul 2022 14:55 UTC
21 points
10 comments12 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Through Fiction

Yitz6 Jul 2022 5:03 UTC
5 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Mar­burg Virus Pan­demic Pre­dic­tion Checklist

DirectedEvolution18 Jul 2022 23:15 UTC
29 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Ad­den­dum: A non-mag­i­cal ex­pla­na­tion of Jeffrey Epstein

lc18 Jul 2022 17:40 UTC
61 points
20 comments11 min readLW link

Ques­tions for a The­ory of Narratives

Marv K29 Jul 2022 19:31 UTC
5 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Ab­strac­tion sac­ri­fices causal clarity

Marv K31 Jul 2022 19:24 UTC
2 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

I’m mildly skep­ti­cal that blind­ness pre­vents schizophrenia

Steven Byrnes15 Aug 2022 23:36 UTC
81 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

An in­tro­duc­tion to sig­nal­ling theory

Mvolz16 Aug 2022 9:37 UTC
15 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Statis­tics for vague con­cepts and “Colors” of places

Q Home19 Aug 2022 10:33 UTC
−1 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

The shard the­ory of hu­man values

4 Sep 2022 4:28 UTC
202 points
57 comments24 min readLW link

First we shape our so­cial graph; then it shapes us

Henrik Karlsson7 Sep 2022 15:50 UTC
41 points
5 comments8 min readLW link
(escapingflatland.substack.com)

Quan­tified In­tu­itions: An epistemics train­ing web­site in­clud­ing a new EA-themed cal­ibra­tion app

20 Sep 2022 22:25 UTC
28 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Book re­view: “The Heart of the Brain: The Hy­potha­la­mus and Its Hor­mones”

Steven Byrnes27 Sep 2022 13:20 UTC
56 points
3 comments18 min readLW link

[Question] Have you no­ticed any ways that ra­tio­nal­ists differ? [Brain­storm­ing ses­sion]

tailcalled23 Oct 2022 11:32 UTC
23 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

Col­lege Ad­mis­sions as a Bru­tal One-Shot Game

devansh5 Dec 2022 20:05 UTC
15 points
26 comments2 min readLW link

The Ori­gin of Con­scious­ness Read­ing Com­pan­ion, Part 1

Jacob Falkovich6 Apr 2020 22:07 UTC
21 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

[Question] What are the Nth Order Effects of the Coron­avirus?

Yoav Ravid7 Apr 2020 13:55 UTC
8 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Would 2009 H1N1 (Swine Flu) ring the alarm bell?

DirectedEvolution7 Apr 2020 7:16 UTC
32 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

On R0

Zvi7 Apr 2020 23:20 UTC
63 points
6 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Prob­lems with p-values

lifelonglearner8 Apr 2020 0:58 UTC
10 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(mlu.red)

Would 2014-2016 Ebola ring the alarm bell?

DirectedEvolution8 Apr 2020 2:01 UTC
16 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

Link Ret­ro­spec­tive for 2020 Q1

mraxilus8 Apr 2020 12:38 UTC
10 points
4 comments7 min readLW link
(write.as)

Assess­ing Kurzweil’s 1999 pre­dic­tions for 2019

Stuart_Armstrong8 Apr 2020 14:27 UTC
36 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What should I study to un­der­stand real-world eco­nomics? (I.e., To gain fi­nan­cial liter­acy)

Rudi C8 Apr 2020 19:22 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Test­ing and con­tact trac­ing im­pact as­sess­ment model?

JustinShovelain9 Apr 2020 17:42 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

The One Mis­take Rule

Zvi10 Apr 2020 14:50 UTC
43 points
15 comments2 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

How to eval­u­ate (50%) predictions

Rafael Harth10 Apr 2020 17:12 UTC
122 points
50 comments9 min readLW link

Cu­ri­os­ity: A Greedy Feeling

DirectedEvolution11 Apr 2020 4:38 UTC
39 points
7 comments10 min readLW link

Law school taught me nothing

ketchupduck11 Apr 2020 14:30 UTC
22 points
14 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] How should we model com­plex sys­tems?

ClimateDoc12 Apr 2020 21:23 UTC
17 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Are there any nat­u­rally oc­cur­ring heat pumps?

FactorialCode13 Apr 2020 5:24 UTC
14 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion cas­cades in sci­en­tific practice

RichardKennaway29 Jul 2009 12:08 UTC
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­ma­ture death paradox

bfinn13 Apr 2020 23:15 UTC
8 points
21 comments3 min readLW link

Math­e­mat­i­cal In­tu­ition­ism and the Flow of Time

Polytopos14 Apr 2020 0:25 UTC
9 points
5 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Is this vi­able physics?

Daniel Kokotajlo14 Apr 2020 19:29 UTC
59 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

No­body does the thing that they are sup­pos­edly doing

Kaj_Sotala23 Sep 2017 10:40 UTC
56 points
6 comments2 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Noise Simplifies

johnswentworth15 Apr 2020 19:48 UTC
25 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

In­te­grat­ing Hid­den Vari­ables Im­proves Approximation

johnswentworth16 Apr 2020 21:43 UTC
15 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Treat­ments cor­re­lated with harm

Connor_Flexman16 Apr 2020 21:02 UTC
40 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How much mo­ti­va­tion do you de­rive from cu­ri­os­ity alone in your work/​re­search?

NaiveTortoise17 Apr 2020 14:04 UTC
25 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Bet­ter name for “Heavy-tailed­ness of the world?”

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Apr 2020 20:50 UTC
28 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

What Hap­pens Dur­ing a Recession

Elizabeth20 Apr 2020 3:03 UTC
50 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What are the ex­ter­nal­ities of pre­dic­tions on wars?

Mati_Roy20 Apr 2020 17:37 UTC
6 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Link Sum­mary: Top 10 Repli­cated Find­ings from Be­hav­ioral Genetics

ErickBall19 Apr 2020 1:32 UTC
15 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Web Au­dio Echo?

jefftk19 Apr 2020 2:30 UTC
8 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

In­tu­itions on Univer­sal Be­hav­ior of In­for­ma­tion at a Distance

johnswentworth20 Apr 2020 21:44 UTC
20 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

De­scrip­tion vs simu­lated prediction

Richard Korzekwa 22 Apr 2020 16:40 UTC
26 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

In­ner al­ign­ment in the brain

Steven Byrnes22 Apr 2020 13:14 UTC
76 points
16 comments16 min readLW link

Last chance for as­sess­ing Kurzweil

Stuart_Armstrong22 Apr 2020 11:51 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

What’s Hard About Long Tails?

johnswentworth23 Apr 2020 16:32 UTC
24 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

Mo­du­lar em­piri­cal science

yhoiseth23 Apr 2020 11:22 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(yngve.hoiseth.net)

[Question] Do you trust the re­search on hand­writ­ing vs. typ­ing for notes?

NaiveTortoise23 Apr 2020 20:49 UTC
25 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

Player vs. Char­ac­ter: A Two-Level Model of Ethics

sarahconstantin14 Dec 2018 19:40 UTC
77 points
27 comments7 min readLW link3 reviews
(srconstantin.wordpress.com)

The Ineffi­cient Mar­ket Hypothesis

lsusr24 Apr 2020 7:33 UTC
70 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Teach­ers: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott Alexander19 May 2016 6:13 UTC
13 points
2 comments22 min readLW link

Wheat: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott Alexander31 Mar 2014 0:26 UTC
18 points
2 comments17 min readLW link

Kin­der­garten in NYC: Much More than You Wanted to Know

Laura B9 Dec 2018 15:36 UTC
36 points
1 comment11 min readLW link

Autism And In­tel­li­gence: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott Alexander14 Nov 2019 5:30 UTC
70 points
12 comments7 min readLW link1 review
(slatestarcodex.com)

SSRIs: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott Alexander8 Jul 2014 2:06 UTC
18 points
0 comments27 min readLW link

Origi­nal Re­search on Less Wrong

lukeprog29 Oct 2012 22:50 UTC
48 points
48 comments12 min readLW link

Fast Take­off in Biolog­i­cal Intelligence

eapache25 Apr 2020 12:21 UTC
14 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Ma­chine Learn­ing Anal­ogy for Med­i­ta­tion (illus­trated)

abramdemski28 Jun 2018 22:51 UTC
87 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

UAP and Global Catas­trophic Risks

avturchin28 Apr 2020 13:07 UTC
7 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Mark Eichen­laub: How to de­velop sci­en­tific intuition

Kaj_Sotala23 Oct 2018 13:30 UTC
75 points
6 comments8 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Face­book AI: A state-of-the-art open source chatbot

FactorialCode29 Apr 2020 17:21 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(ai.facebook.com)

I do not like math

lsusr29 Apr 2020 11:27 UTC
33 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2020

NunoSempere30 Apr 2020 16:41 UTC
22 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Against strong bayesianism

Richard_Ngo30 Apr 2020 10:48 UTC
57 points
65 comments6 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Effi­cient Mar­kets and Academia

johnswentworth30 Apr 2020 21:59 UTC
52 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

FLI Pod­cast: On Su­perfore­cast­ing with Robert de Neufville

Palus Astra30 Apr 2020 23:08 UTC
6 points
0 comments52 min readLW link

Topolog­i­cal meta­physics: re­lat­ing point-set topol­ogy and lo­cale theory

jessicata1 May 2020 3:57 UTC
13 points
6 comments3 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

In­ter­view with Aubrey de Grey, chief sci­ence officer of the SENS Re­search Foundation

emanuele ascani1 May 2020 9:04 UTC
12 points
7 comments14 min readLW link

[Question] Value of build­ing an on­line “knowl­edge web”

Joe Kwon1 May 2020 4:31 UTC
2 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

2020 predictions

Bucky1 May 2020 20:11 UTC
11 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Narconomics

ketchupduck3 May 2020 1:19 UTC
75 points
11 comments7 min readLW link

Biolog­i­cal evolu­tion as an anal­ogy for the mar­ket economy

Snorkelfarsan3 May 2020 18:51 UTC
6 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

How uniform is the neo­cor­tex?

zhukeepa4 May 2020 2:16 UTC
78 points
23 comments11 min readLW link1 review

Con­struc­tive Definitions

Chris_Leong4 May 2020 23:50 UTC
15 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

“AI and Effi­ciency”, OA (44✕ im­prove­ment in CNNs since 2012)

gwern5 May 2020 16:32 UTC
47 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(openai.com)

Assess­ing Kurzweil pre­dic­tions about 2019: the results

Stuart_Armstrong6 May 2020 13:36 UTC
143 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

Maths writer/​cowrit­ter needed: how you can’t dis­t­in­guish early ex­po­nen­tial from early sigmoid

Stuart_Armstrong6 May 2020 9:41 UTC
41 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How to quan­tify un­cer­tainty about a prob­a­bil­ity es­ti­mate?

mic6 May 2020 12:06 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­tion to fore­cast­ing work­sheet

edoarad6 May 2020 13:54 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.foretold.io)

[Question] Tips/​tricks/​notes on op­ti­miz­ing investments

Wei Dai6 May 2020 23:21 UTC
83 points
67 comments1 min readLW link

[link] How many hu­mans will have their brain pre­served? Fore­casts and trends

Mati_Roy7 May 2020 6:11 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tions’ in­di­vi­d­ual scores

Stuart_Armstrong7 May 2020 17:10 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Covid-19 5/​7: Fight­ing Limbo

Zvi7 May 2020 19:00 UTC
27 points
7 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Failures in tech­nol­ogy fore­cast­ing? A re­ply to Ord and Yudkowsky

MichaelA8 May 2020 12:41 UTC
44 points
19 comments11 min readLW link

[Question] Is there any sci­en­tific ev­i­dence for benefits of med­i­ta­tion?

CheerfulWarrior9 May 2020 8:53 UTC
16 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are ex­am­ples of peren­nial dis­cov­er­ies?

Mati_Roy9 May 2020 6:17 UTC
10 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­ject Pro­posal: Gears of Aging

johnswentworth9 May 2020 18:47 UTC
57 points
44 comments7 min readLW link

There is a war.

Benquo24 May 2018 6:44 UTC
39 points
31 comments14 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Really Fresh Baking

jefftk10 May 2020 11:40 UTC
26 points
8 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

The Great­est Host

trentbrick10 May 2020 20:28 UTC
33 points
8 comments14 min readLW link

Book re­port: The­ory of Games and Eco­nomic Be­hav­ior (von Neu­mann & Mor­gen­stern)

Nisan11 May 2020 9:47 UTC
38 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

Zoom Tech­nolo­gies, Inc. vs. the Effi­cient Mar­kets Hypothesis

Zack_M_Davis11 May 2020 6:00 UTC
72 points
47 comments4 min readLW link

Time­less Identity

Eliezer Yudkowsky3 Jun 2008 8:16 UTC
51 points
248 comments14 min readLW link

How to take smart notes (Ahrens, 2017)

Yuxi_Liu23 Jul 2019 15:34 UTC
69 points
12 comments6 min readLW link

Le­gends of Runeterra: Early Review

Zvi13 May 2020 10:50 UTC
13 points
12 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] What are ar­ti­cles on “lifel­og­ging as life ex­ten­sion”?

Mati_Roy13 May 2020 20:35 UTC
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Dist­in­guish­ing lo­gis­tic curves

Stuart_Armstrong15 May 2020 11:38 UTC
24 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Small Data

lsusr14 May 2020 4:29 UTC
25 points
12 comments4 min readLW link

Covid 5/​21: Limbo Under

Zvi14 May 2020 22:30 UTC
15 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Stud­ies On Slack

Scott Alexander13 May 2020 5:00 UTC
144 points
34 comments24 min readLW link1 review
(slatestarcodex.com)

Sub­space optima

Chris van Merwijk15 May 2020 12:38 UTC
61 points
7 comments1 min readLW link1 review

Dist­in­guish­ing lo­gis­tic curves: visual

Stuart_Armstrong15 May 2020 10:33 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are Michael Vas­sar’s be­liefs?

Chris_Leong15 May 2020 6:15 UTC
20 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

The Ne­glected Virtue of Scholarship

lukeprog5 Jan 2011 7:22 UTC
306 points
157 comments3 min readLW link

Mak­ing your­self small

Helen8 Mar 2018 14:26 UTC
112 points
53 comments11 min readLW link

Why the tails come apart

Thrasymachus1 Aug 2014 22:41 UTC
280 points
100 comments7 min readLW link

Book Re­view: The Se­cret Of Our Success

Scott Alexander5 Jun 2019 6:50 UTC
154 points
19 comments25 min readLW link2 reviews
(slatestarcodex.com)

The EMH Aten’t Dead

Richard Meadows15 May 2020 20:44 UTC
189 points
86 comments19 min readLW link

[Question] Do any mam­mal species ex­hibit an im­mune re­sponse in some of the herd in re­sponse to the in­fec­tion in other herd mem­bers?

jmh16 May 2020 17:33 UTC
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Sig­nal­ing: Why Peo­ple Have Conversations

liam_hinzman20 May 2020 3:18 UTC
15 points
21 comments3 min readLW link
(liamhinzman.com)

An­nounc­ing Progress Stud­ies for Young Schol­ars, an on­line sum­mer pro­gram in the his­tory of technology

jasoncrawford20 May 2020 0:52 UTC
19 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Is there a way to repli­cate pho­to­syn­the­sis ar­tifi­cially?

basu_enterprise20 May 2020 19:45 UTC
−2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] If bac­te­ria gave us a tool for bio en­g­ineer­ing, have viruses given us a de­liv­ery mechanism?

jmh20 May 2020 22:31 UTC
5 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How does pub­lish­ing a pa­per work?

Liron21 May 2020 12:14 UTC
42 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What was your rea­son­ing for de­cid­ing to have ‘your own’/​ nat­u­ral-birthed chil­dren?

R L21 May 2020 1:30 UTC
2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Orthogonality

lsusr21 May 2020 3:17 UTC
21 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

The Oil Cri­sis of 1973

Elizabeth22 May 2020 15:50 UTC
77 points
10 comments3 min readLW link1 review
(acesounderglass.com)

High­lights of Com­par­a­tive and Evolu­tion­ary Aging

johnswentworth22 May 2020 17:01 UTC
55 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Pre­dic­tions/​ques­tions about con­quis­ta­dors?

Daniel Kokotajlo22 May 2020 11:43 UTC
7 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Post-crash mar­ket effi­ciency 1696-2020

bfinn22 May 2020 14:13 UTC
21 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Mazes Se­quence Summary

Zvi23 May 2020 16:40 UTC
78 points
2 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

In Search of Slack

Martin Sustrik23 May 2020 11:20 UTC
47 points
3 comments6 min readLW link
(250bpm.com)

Evolu­tion is sam­pling error

willbradshaw23 May 2020 16:21 UTC
37 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(apomorphic.com)

[Question] Is tak­ing ba­copa good for life ex­ten­sion?

Mati_Roy23 May 2020 8:54 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Plague in As­sas­sin’s Creed Odyssey

Zvi24 May 2020 12:00 UTC
39 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Why We Age, Part 1: What age­ing is and is not

willbradshaw24 May 2020 9:06 UTC
55 points
4 comments7 min readLW link
(apomorphic.com)

[Question] What is your in­ter­net search method­ol­ogy ?

George3d623 May 2020 20:33 UTC
16 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Op­pos­ing a hi­er­ar­chy does not im­ply egalitarianism

Viliam23 May 2020 20:51 UTC
7 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

Notes about psychopharmacology

ksenia23 May 2020 19:31 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(n2t.net)

Why Ra­tion­al­ists Shouldn’t be In­ter­ested in To­pos Theory

jollybard25 May 2020 5:35 UTC
73 points
14 comments5 min readLW link

An ad­den­dum on effec­tive pop­u­la­tion size

willbradshaw25 May 2020 12:35 UTC
18 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(apomorphic.com)

On the Loss and Preser­va­tion of Knowledge

Samo Burja8 Mar 2018 18:40 UTC
55 points
20 comments10 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Book re­view: The Sleep­walk­ers by Arthur Koestler

Richard_Ngo23 Apr 2019 0:10 UTC
68 points
26 comments9 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

The Coper­ni­can Revolu­tion from the Inside

jacobjacob1 Nov 2017 10:51 UTC
117 points
46 comments19 min readLW link

Two Kinds of Tech­nol­ogy Change

johnswentworth11 Oct 2018 4:54 UTC
61 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Why We Age, Part 2: Non-adap­tive theories

willbradshaw26 May 2020 17:41 UTC
86 points
22 comments11 min readLW link
(apomorphic.com)

Wrinkles

johnswentworth19 Nov 2019 22:59 UTC
77 points
15 comments4 min readLW link

Homeosta­sis and “Root Causes” in Aging

johnswentworth5 Jan 2020 18:43 UTC
79 points
25 comments3 min readLW link

The Lens, Proge­rias and Polycausality

johnswentworth8 Mar 2020 17:53 UTC
70 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Adap­tive Im­mune Sys­tem Aging

johnswentworth13 Mar 2020 3:47 UTC
73 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Your ab­strac­tion isn’t wrong, it’s just re­ally bad

George3d626 May 2020 20:14 UTC
24 points
17 comments17 min readLW link
(blog.cerebralab.com)

Shut­tling be­tween sci­ence and invention

jasoncrawford27 May 2020 21:25 UTC
61 points
1 comment6 min readLW link1 review
(rootsofprogress.org)

Nor­mal­iza­tion of Deviance

Gordon Seidoh Worley2 Jan 2020 22:58 UTC
62 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

Spec­u­la­tions on the Fu­ture of Fic­tion Writing

johnswentworth28 May 2020 16:34 UTC
35 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

How to (not) do a liter­a­ture review

Katarina Slama30 May 2020 0:11 UTC
73 points
7 comments6 min readLW link
(katarinaslama.github.io)

The Pre­sump­tu­ous Philoso­pher, self-lo­cat­ing in­for­ma­tion, and Solomonoff induction

Charlie Steiner31 May 2020 16:35 UTC
49 points
28 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Any­one recom­mend a video course on the the­ory of com­pu­ta­tion?

Eli Tyre30 May 2020 19:52 UTC
8 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Restricted Diet and Longevity, does eat­ing pat­tern mat­ter?

jmh1 Jun 2020 21:28 UTC
7 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

May Gw­ern.net newslet­ter (w/​GPT-3 com­men­tary)

gwern2 Jun 2020 15:40 UTC
32 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Spar­sity and in­ter­pretabil­ity?

1 Jun 2020 13:25 UTC
41 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

The Law of Cul­tural Proximity

eapache3 Jun 2020 2:18 UTC
8 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Why isn’t as­sas­si­na­tion/​sab­o­tage more com­mon?

Rudi C4 Jun 2020 18:04 UTC
8 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

Pas­teur’s quadrant

jasoncrawford5 Jun 2020 17:47 UTC
34 points
2 comments5 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] What is Ra?

Chris_Leong6 Jun 2020 4:29 UTC
18 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Most re­li­able news sources?

Eli Tyre6 Jun 2020 20:24 UTC
37 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Philos­o­phy in the Dark­est Timeline: Ba­sics of the Evolu­tion of Meaning

Zack_M_Davis7 Jun 2020 7:52 UTC
116 points
17 comments14 min readLW link

Con­scious­ness as Me­taphor: What Jaynes Has to Offer

Hazard7 Jun 2020 18:41 UTC
15 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

An Illus­trated Proof of the No Free Lunch Theorem

lifelonglearner8 Jun 2020 1:54 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(mlu.red)

Leg­i­bil­ity: Notes on “Man as a Ra­tion­al­ist An­i­mal”

Hazard8 Jun 2020 2:18 UTC
13 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Are there good ways to find ex­pert re­views of pop­u­lar sci­ence books?

Kaj_Sotala9 Jun 2020 14:54 UTC
22 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Public Static: What is Ab­strac­tion?

johnswentworth9 Jun 2020 18:36 UTC
82 points
18 comments12 min readLW link

More on dis­am­biguat­ing “dis­con­ti­nu­ity”

Aryeh Englander9 Jun 2020 15:16 UTC
16 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Self-Pre­dict­ing Markets

eapache10 Jun 2020 22:39 UTC
26 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is there some­thing like a “meta-en­cy­clo­pe­dia”?

Pablo11 Jun 2020 12:16 UTC
16 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Carte­sian Boundary as Ab­strac­tion Boundary

johnswentworth11 Jun 2020 17:38 UTC
34 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Does equa­nim­ity pre­vent nega­tive util­ity?

Chris_Leong11 Jun 2020 7:00 UTC
14 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Two Kinds of Mis­take Theorists

DirectedEvolution11 Jun 2020 14:49 UTC
8 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Ide­ol­ogy/​nar­ra­tive sta­bi­lizes path-de­pen­dent equilibria

Eli Tyre11 Jun 2020 2:50 UTC
22 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Good and bad ways to think about down­side risks

11 Jun 2020 1:38 UTC
17 points
12 comments11 min readLW link

[Link] “Will He Go?” book re­view (Scott Aaron­son)

ioannes12 Jun 2020 22:16 UTC
15 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] For mod­er­ately well-re­sourced peo­ple in the US, how quickly will things go from “un­com­fortable” to “too late to exit”?

Dagon12 Jun 2020 16:59 UTC
76 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Down with Solomonoff In­duc­tion, up with the Pre­sump­tu­ous Philosopher

Charlie Steiner12 Jun 2020 9:44 UTC
13 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Test­ing Han­son’s hy­poth­e­sis about the use­less­ness of health care.

JoshuaFox13 Jun 2020 18:34 UTC
28 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

You Can Do Futarchy Yourself

Tetraspace14 Jun 2020 0:16 UTC
51 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

In­tu­itive La­grangian Mechanics

lsusr13 Jun 2020 9:19 UTC
25 points
10 comments2 min readLW link
(www.lsusr.com)

The Eco­nomic Con­se­quences of Noise Traders

FactorialCode14 Jun 2020 17:14 UTC
45 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.nber.org)

Causal­ity Adds Up to Normality

johnswentworth15 Jun 2020 17:19 UTC
12 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Su­per­ex­po­nen­tial His­toric Growth, by David Roodman

Ben Pace15 Jun 2020 21:49 UTC
43 points
6 comments5 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Re­search snap-shot: ques­tion about Global Workspace Theory

Hazard15 Jun 2020 21:00 UTC
21 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

High-School Alge­bra for Data Structures

johnswentworth17 Jun 2020 18:09 UTC
21 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Bathing Machines and the Lindy Effect

DirectedEvolution17 Jun 2020 21:44 UTC
14 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Deriv­ing Gen­eral Relativity

lsusr22 Jun 2020 9:52 UTC
2 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Re­quest­ing feed­back/​ad­vice: what Type The­ory to study for AI safety?

rvnnt23 Jun 2020 17:03 UTC
7 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Ab­strac­tion, Evolu­tion and Gears

johnswentworth24 Jun 2020 17:39 UTC
29 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Quick Look #1 Dio­phan­tus of Alexandria

JohnBuridan24 Jun 2020 19:12 UTC
19 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

The Dark Mir­a­cle of Optics

Suspended Reason24 Jun 2020 3:09 UTC
26 points
5 comments8 min readLW link

Re­duc­tive Reference

Eliezer Yudkowsky3 Apr 2008 1:37 UTC
44 points
48 comments6 min readLW link

An ag­ile ap­proach to pre-research

DirectedEvolution25 Jun 2020 18:29 UTC
14 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

In­dus­try and workers

smaslennikov25 Jun 2020 20:03 UTC
−3 points
12 comments4 min readLW link
(smaslennikov.com)

Black Death at the Golden Gate (book re­view)

PeterMcCluskey26 Jun 2020 16:09 UTC
17 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Miss­ing dog reasoning

26 Jun 2020 21:30 UTC
27 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Covid 6/​25: The Dam Breaks

Zvi25 Jun 2020 18:30 UTC
115 points
21 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

In­sti­tu­tional Senescence

Martin Sustrik26 Jun 2020 4:40 UTC
26 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(250bpm.com)

A Sketch of Good Communication

Ben Pace31 Mar 2018 22:48 UTC
156 points
35 comments3 min readLW link1 review

[Question] How ought I spend time?

Quinn30 Jun 2020 16:53 UTC
10 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

The ground of optimization

Alex Flint20 Jun 2020 0:38 UTC
218 points
74 comments27 min readLW link1 review

How to Find Sources in an Un­re­li­able World

Elizabeth1 Jul 2020 18:30 UTC
40 points
9 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter. June 2020.

NunoSempere1 Jul 2020 9:46 UTC
27 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Se­cond-Order Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

Ideopunk1 Jul 2020 18:46 UTC
2 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

High Stock Prices Make Sense Right Now

johnswentworth3 Jul 2020 20:16 UTC
83 points
27 comments4 min readLW link

The silence is deaf­en­ing – Devon Zuegel

Ben Pace4 Jul 2020 2:30 UTC
27 points
13 comments1 min readLW link
(devonzuegel.com)

Causal­ity and its harms

George3d64 Jul 2020 14:42 UTC
16 points
19 comments11 min readLW link
(blog.cerebralab.com)

Let There be Sound: A Fris­to­nian Med­i­ta­tion on Creativity

jollybard4 Jul 2020 3:33 UTC
3 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(jollybard.wordpress.com)

[Question] Could Nixon go­ing to China be a cause for the big stag­na­tion?

ChristianKl5 Jul 2020 6:58 UTC
16 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How do you vi­su­al­ize the Pois­son PDF?

Rudi C5 Jul 2020 15:54 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] When a sta­tus sym­bol loses its plau­si­ble de­ni­a­bil­ity, how much power does it lose?

Mati_Roy7 Jul 2020 0:48 UTC
5 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

What should we do about net­work-effect mo­nop­o­lies?

benkuhn6 Jul 2020 0:40 UTC
49 points
17 comments1 min readLW link
(www.benkuhn.net)

[Question] [Refer­ence re­quest] Can Love be Ex­plained?

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel7 Jul 2020 10:09 UTC
5 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What is the sci­en­tific sta­tus of ‘Mus­cle Me­mory’?

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel7 Jul 2020 9:57 UTC
2 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Trans­late mu­sic in­to­na­tion into words us­ing color se­man­tics (as a means of com­mu­ni­ca­tion)

Alexey Smirnov7 Jul 2020 15:26 UTC
3 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Models of Value of Learning

johnswentworth7 Jul 2020 19:08 UTC
24 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Why Would A Cer­tain Hoax Story Be Re­ported For So Long?

Servant24 Mar 2011 17:11 UTC
12 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Worth re­mem­ber­ing (when com­par­ing ‘the US’ to ‘Europe’)

Curiousguy13 Apr 2013 20:35 UTC
20 points
27 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Does 3-2-1 Vot­ing work us­ing a six point scale?

TGetschman7 Jul 2020 21:06 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Say Wrong Things

Gordon Seidoh Worley24 May 2019 22:11 UTC
111 points
12 comments4 min readLW link

Ni­coti­namide ri­boside vs. SARS-coV-2 update

William Walker8 Jul 2020 19:50 UTC
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tive cod­ing = RL + SL + Bayes + MPC

Steven Byrnes10 Dec 2019 11:45 UTC
53 points
8 comments8 min readLW link

The Brain as a Univer­sal Learn­ing Machine

jacob_cannell24 Jun 2015 21:45 UTC
157 points
169 comments19 min readLW link

Was a ter­mi­nal de­gree nec­es­sary for in­vent­ing Boyle’s desider­ata?

DirectedEvolution10 Jul 2020 4:47 UTC
35 points
18 comments5 min readLW link

I Can Tol­er­ate Any­thing Ex­cept The Outgroup

Scott Alexander2 Sep 2017 8:22 UTC
64 points
2 comments28 min readLW link

How The West Was Won

Scott Alexander26 Jul 2016 3:05 UTC
39 points
10 comments17 min readLW link

The Ide­ol­ogy Is Not The Movement

Scott Alexander5 Apr 2016 1:52 UTC
37 points
1 comment24 min readLW link

Differ­ent Worlds

Scott Alexander3 Oct 2017 4:10 UTC
73 points
16 comments14 min readLW link
(slatestarcodex.com)

Eth­nic Ten­sion And Mean­ingless Arguments

Scott Alexander5 Nov 2014 3:38 UTC
63 points
8 comments22 min readLW link

The Cold War di­vided Science

Douglas_Knight5 Apr 2014 23:10 UTC
33 points
53 comments1 min readLW link

Astron­omy, space ex­plo­ra­tion and the Great Filter

JoshuaZ19 Apr 2015 19:26 UTC
36 points
68 comments20 min readLW link

How prob­a­ble is Molec­u­lar Nan­otech?

leplen29 Jun 2013 7:06 UTC
67 points
56 comments8 min readLW link

Was a PhD nec­es­sary to solve out­stand­ing math prob­lems?

DirectedEvolution10 Jul 2020 18:43 UTC
22 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Born as the sev­enth month dies …

Rudi C10 Jul 2020 15:07 UTC
6 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Why are cer­tain trends so pre­cisely ex­po­nen­tial?

orthonormal6 Aug 2011 17:38 UTC
29 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

Canon­i­cal forms

sen11 Jul 2020 18:53 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.fimfiction.net)

Distinc­tions in Types of Thought

sarahconstantin10 Oct 2017 3:36 UTC
33 points
24 comments13 min readLW link

The Power of Intelligence

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Jan 2007 20:00 UTC
66 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Science eats its young

George3d612 Jul 2020 12:32 UTC
14 points
13 comments10 min readLW link
(cerebralab.com)

In praise of con­tribut­ing ex­am­ples, analo­gies and lingo

Adam Zerner13 Jul 2020 6:43 UTC
29 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Al­gorith­mic In­tent: A Han­so­nian Gen­er­al­ized Anti-Zom­bie Principle

Zack_M_Davis14 Jul 2020 6:03 UTC
50 points
17 comments12 min readLW link

Limits of Cur­rent US Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets (Pre­dic­tIt Case Study)

aphyer14 Jul 2020 7:24 UTC
188 points
49 comments7 min readLW link

Cal­ibra­tion Prac­tice: Retro­d­ic­tions on Metaculus

Raemon14 Jul 2020 18:35 UTC
31 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Gold­bach con­jec­ture is prob­a­bly cor­rect; so was Fer­mat’s last theorem

Stuart_Armstrong14 Jul 2020 19:30 UTC
73 points
27 comments4 min readLW link

What Money Can­not Buy

johnswentworth1 Feb 2020 20:11 UTC
279 points
45 comments4 min readLW link1 review

Anti-so­cial Punishment

Martin Sustrik27 Sep 2018 7:08 UTC
254 points
64 comments6 min readLW link3 reviews

The Library of Scott Alexandria

Rob Bensinger14 Sep 2015 1:38 UTC
112 points
33 comments7 min readLW link

The Cat­e­gories Were Made For Man, Not Man For The Categories

Scott Alexander21 Nov 2014 14:34 UTC
74 points
9 comments18 min readLW link

Ta­boo Your Words

Eliezer Yudkowsky15 Feb 2008 22:53 UTC
187 points
131 comments3 min readLW link

Un­con­scious Economics

jacobjacob27 Feb 2019 12:58 UTC
110 points
30 comments4 min readLW link3 reviews

Philos­o­phy: A Diseased Discipline

lukeprog28 Mar 2011 19:31 UTC
142 points
448 comments7 min readLW link

Thou Art Godshatter

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Nov 2007 19:38 UTC
196 points
81 comments5 min readLW link

Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 Dec 2007 3:04 UTC
102 points
36 comments3 min readLW link

Why as­so­ci­a­tive op­er­a­tions?

Sunny from QAD16 Jul 2020 12:36 UTC
6 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(questionsanddaylight.com)

Why ev­ery­thing might have taken so long

KatjaGrace1 Jan 2018 1:00 UTC
103 points
16 comments3 min readLW link1 review
(meteuphoric.wordpress.com)

Why did ev­ery­thing take so long?

KatjaGrace29 Dec 2017 1:00 UTC
29 points
17 comments1 min readLW link
(meteuphoric.wordpress.com)

The Chro­matic Num­ber of the Plane is at Least 5 - Aubrey de Grey

Scott Garrabrant11 Apr 2018 18:19 UTC
61 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

[Question] Erv­ing Goff­man’s ‘pa­per’

Saffron18 Jul 2020 1:12 UTC
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Cal­ibrate words, not just probabilities

MikkW18 Jul 2020 5:56 UTC
11 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Crit­i­cism of some pop­u­lar LW articles

DirectedEvolution19 Jul 2020 1:16 UTC
70 points
19 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Math. proof of the su­pe­ri­or­ity of in­de­pen­dent guesses?

Milton19 Jul 2020 2:38 UTC
−3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Praise of some pop­u­lar LW articles

DirectedEvolution20 Jul 2020 0:32 UTC
40 points
1 comment7 min readLW link

Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

Richard_Ngo20 Jul 2020 20:27 UTC
175 points
36 comments11 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

Un­cal­ibrated quan­tum ex­per­i­ments act cla­si­cally

justinpombrio21 Jul 2020 5:31 UTC
18 points
12 comments8 min readLW link

How good is hu­man­ity at co­or­di­na­tion?

Buck21 Jul 2020 20:01 UTC
78 points
44 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Are par­a­sitic worms an effec­tive weapon against MS?

Demeter23 Jul 2020 13:59 UTC
27 points
11 comments9 min readLW link

Swiss Poli­ti­cal Sys­tem: More than You ever Wanted to Know (II.)

Martin Sustrik22 Jul 2020 13:50 UTC
87 points
24 comments12 min readLW link
(250bpm.com)

A Nat­u­ral Ex­pla­na­tion of Nash Equilibria

Dr. Birdbrain25 Jul 2020 23:40 UTC
3 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Mini-Re­view: ‘The Oxford Hand­book of Philos­o­phy of Cog­ni­tive Science’

lukeprog1 Feb 2012 21:48 UTC
11 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Time se­ries fore­cast­ing for global tem­per­a­ture: an out­side view of cli­mate forecasting

VipulNaik7 Jul 2014 16:25 UTC
5 points
11 comments10 min readLW link

How to Seem (and Be) Deep

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Oct 2007 18:13 UTC
95 points
120 comments4 min readLW link

Ad­vanced Place­ment exam cut­offs and su­perfi­cial knowl­edge over deep knowledge

JonahS1 Sep 2013 21:01 UTC
12 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

The Orange Head Joke

Anatoly_Vorobey25 Jan 2011 20:33 UTC
30 points
96 comments2 min readLW link

LSD, Med­i­ta­tion, En­light­en­ment, and Ego Death

Fink20 Apr 2014 19:41 UTC
9 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

List of com­mon hu­man goals

Elo24 Aug 2015 7:58 UTC
19 points
24 comments7 min readLW link

Effects of Cas­tra­tion on the Life Ex­pec­tancy of Con­tem­po­rary Men

Fluttershy8 Aug 2015 4:37 UTC
16 points
52 comments10 min readLW link

The Atomic Bomb Con­sid­ered As Hun­gar­ian High School Science Fair Project

Scott Alexander26 May 2017 9:45 UTC
41 points
8 comments14 min readLW link

Time­less Physics

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 May 2008 9:09 UTC
51 points
121 comments12 min readLW link

What are the most com­mon and im­por­tant trade-offs that de­ci­sion mak­ers face?

Andy_McKenzie3 Nov 2014 5:03 UTC
13 points
30 comments2 min readLW link

New pa­per: Long-Term Tra­jec­to­ries of Hu­man Civilization

Kaj_Sotala12 Aug 2018 9:10 UTC
33 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Study on what makes peo­ple ap­prove or con­demn mind up­load tech­nol­ogy; refer­ences LW

Kaj_Sotala10 Jul 2018 17:14 UTC
21 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.nature.com)

[Question] Would a halfway copied brain em­u­la­tion be at risk of hav­ing differ­ent val­ues/​iden­tity?

Ghatanathoah30 Jul 2020 5:43 UTC
9 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Covid 7/​30: Whack a Mole

Zvi30 Jul 2020 15:50 UTC
39 points
4 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Run­ning the num­bers: Cryo vs Dis­count rate

RomeoStevens4 Jun 2014 7:54 UTC
9 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

New Paper on Herd Im­mu­nity Thresholds

Zvi29 Jul 2020 20:50 UTC
40 points
17 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] How has the cost of cloth­ing in­su­la­tion changed since 1970 in the USA?

DanielFilan12 Jan 2020 23:31 UTC
14 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

In­sights from ‘The Strat­egy of Con­flict’

DanielFilan4 Jan 2018 5:05 UTC
37 points
13 comments7 min readLW link

Free Ed­u­ca­tional and Re­search Resources

Rachel Shu31 Jul 2020 0:24 UTC
52 points
25 comments6 min readLW link

In­fer­ence & Empiricism

SatvikBeri20 Mar 2018 15:47 UTC
38 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

A Ker­nel of Truth: In­sights from ‘A Friendly Ap­proach to Func­tional Anal­y­sis’

TurnTrout4 Apr 2020 3:38 UTC
31 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

ODE to Joy: In­sights from ‘A First Course in Or­di­nary Differ­en­tial Equa­tions’

TurnTrout25 Mar 2020 20:03 UTC
36 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

En­forc­ing Type Distinction

lionhearted (Sebastian Marshall)31 Jul 2020 11:39 UTC
25 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

[Question] Is this info on zinc lozenges ac­cu­rate?

philh27 Jul 2019 22:05 UTC
36 points
24 comments5 min readLW link

Value Impact

TurnTrout23 Sep 2019 0:47 UTC
62 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

De­duc­ing Impact

TurnTrout24 Sep 2019 21:14 UTC
64 points
26 comments1 min readLW link

At­tain­able Utility The­ory: Why Things Matter

TurnTrout27 Sep 2019 16:48 UTC
60 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

World State is the Wrong Ab­strac­tion for Impact

TurnTrout1 Oct 2019 21:03 UTC
62 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

The Gears of Impact

TurnTrout7 Oct 2019 14:44 UTC
50 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

At­tain­able Utility Land­scape: How The World Is Changed

TurnTrout10 Feb 2020 0:58 UTC
51 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

The Era Of Un­limited Every­thing: Un­limited Ma­te­ri­als & Un­limited Money

jdcampolargo1 Aug 2020 3:01 UTC
4 points
11 comments10 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Effi­cient Mar­kets in Poli­ti­cal Power

johnswentworth1 Aug 2020 4:49 UTC
41 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] What is ab­strac­tion?

Adam Zerner15 Dec 2018 8:36 UTC
25 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2020.

NunoSempere1 Aug 2020 17:08 UTC
21 points
4 comments22 min readLW link

[Question] What are ex­am­ples of ‘sci­en­tific’ stud­ies that con­tra­dict what you be­lieve about your­self?

Mati_Roy3 Aug 2020 6:11 UTC
12 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

How To Use Bureaucracies

Samo Burja17 Jul 2018 8:10 UTC
63 points
37 comments9 min readLW link
(medium.com)

The Re­la­tion­ship Between Hier­ar­chy and Wealth

sarahconstantin23 Jan 2019 2:00 UTC
57 points
8 comments12 min readLW link
(srconstantin.wordpress.com)

A sketch of ‘Si­mu­lacra Levels and their In­ter­ac­tions’

Yoav Ravid4 Aug 2020 9:13 UTC
44 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

The Golden Age of Data

Collisteru4 Aug 2020 21:35 UTC
5 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Is Wire­cut­ter still good?

Ben Pace7 Aug 2020 21:54 UTC
45 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

The Man­ual Economy

eapache7 Aug 2020 22:29 UTC
13 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AI Progress: A Re­search Agenda

10 Aug 2020 1:04 UTC
39 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What’s the ev­i­dence on fal­ling testos­teron and sperm counts in men?

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel10 Aug 2020 8:58 UTC
3 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

So­cial Dynamics

curi10 Aug 2020 19:29 UTC
10 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Money cre­ation and debt

AnthonyC12 Aug 2020 20:30 UTC
27 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Sen­tence by Sen­tence: “Why Most Pub­lished Re­search Find­ings are False”

DirectedEvolution13 Aug 2020 6:51 UTC
22 points
5 comments47 min readLW link

The Case for Education

SamuelKnoche14 Aug 2020 17:20 UTC
23 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

The Best Ed­u­ca­tional In­sti­tu­tion in the World

SamuelKnoche14 Aug 2020 17:18 UTC
39 points
13 comments9 min readLW link

How webs of mean­ing grow and change

Hazard14 Aug 2020 13:58 UTC
13 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

The Hu­man Condition

Martin Sustrik16 Aug 2020 5:23 UTC
25 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Notes on Brain­wash­ing & ‘Cults’

gwern13 Sep 2013 20:49 UTC
76 points
105 comments16 min readLW link

Honors Fuel Achievement

Samo Burja10 Jun 2019 16:10 UTC
38 points
2 comments8 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Mul­ti­tudi­nous out­side views

Davidmanheim18 Aug 2020 6:21 UTC
55 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Cy­ber­netic dreams: Beer’s pond brain

Yuxi_Liu19 Nov 2019 12:48 UTC
37 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Can we use ideas from ecosys­tem man­age­ment to cul­ti­vate a healthy ra­tio­nal­ity memes­pace?

13 Jun 2019 12:38 UTC
36 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Me­taphilo­soph­i­cal Mysteries

Wei Dai27 Jul 2010 0:55 UTC
48 points
265 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How would we check if “Math­e­mat­i­ci­ans are gen­er­ally more Law Abid­ing?”

Raemon12 Jan 2020 20:23 UTC
26 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What ex­per­i­ments would demon­strate “up­per limits of aug­mented work­ing mem­ory?”

Raemon15 Aug 2019 22:09 UTC
33 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

In­tel­li­gence Am­plifi­ca­tion Interview

KatjaGrace28 Mar 2014 22:21 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Sto­ries About Academia

Ben Pace2 Sep 2019 18:40 UTC
34 points
1 comment19 min readLW link

Judg­ment Day: In­sights from ‘Judg­ment in Man­age­rial De­ci­sion Mak­ing’

TurnTrout29 Dec 2019 18:03 UTC
24 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

A Quick Tax­on­omy of Ar­gu­ments for The­o­ret­i­cal Eng­ineer­ing Capabilities

Ruby21 May 2019 22:38 UTC
29 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

See­ing the Ma­trix, Switch­ing Ab­strac­tions, and Miss­ing Moods

Raemon4 Jun 2019 21:08 UTC
34 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] What is re­quired to run a psy­chol­ogy study?

Raemon29 May 2019 6:38 UTC
30 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are some “Com­mu­ni­ties and Cul­tures Differ­ent From Our Own?”

Raemon12 May 2019 22:03 UTC
28 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Stubs of Posts I’d like to Write

Raemon7 Oct 2017 23:27 UTC
11 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How could “Kick­starter for Inad­e­quate Equil­ibria” be used for evil or turn out to be net-nega­tive?

Raemon21 Feb 2019 21:36 UTC
25 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

The Ass­hole Filter

DragonGod7 Oct 2017 16:51 UTC
21 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(siderea.livejournal.com)

The Just World Hypothesis

michael_vassar29 Oct 2017 6:03 UTC
15 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Start Un­der the Streetlight, then Push into the Shadows

lukeprog24 Jun 2013 0:49 UTC
51 points
29 comments8 min readLW link

Real-World Co­or­di­na­tion Prob­lems are Usu­ally In­for­ma­tion Problems

johnswentworth13 Jun 2019 18:21 UTC
33 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Grow­ing Up is Hard

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Jan 2009 3:55 UTC
48 points
41 comments7 min readLW link

Selec­tive pro­cesses bring tag-alongs (but not always!)

AnnaSalamon11 Mar 2009 8:17 UTC
34 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

New Post ver­sion 1 (please read this ONLY if your last name be­ings with a–k)

lukeprog27 Jul 2011 21:57 UTC
39 points
87 comments5 min readLW link

How is your mind differ­ent from ev­ery­one else’s?

Kaj_Sotala5 Dec 2011 8:38 UTC
40 points
267 comments1 min readLW link

How More Knowl­edge is Mak­ing Us Dumber

jdcampolargo20 Aug 2020 15:08 UTC
1 point
4 comments3 min readLW link

“Tech­nol­ogy and the Fu­ture of Per­sons”, by Lynne Rud­der Baker (2013)

Callmesalticidae20 Aug 2020 14:31 UTC
5 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Long-Term Tech­nolog­i­cal Forecasting

lukeprog11 Jan 2012 4:13 UTC
35 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

How about test­ing our ideas?

[deleted]14 Sep 2012 10:28 UTC
42 points
113 comments3 min readLW link

Notes on Psychopathy

gwern19 Dec 2012 4:02 UTC
42 points
100 comments35 min readLW link

Im­prov­ing En­joy­ment and Re­ten­tion Read­ing Tech­ni­cal Literature

sentientplatypus7 Aug 2013 6:29 UTC
45 points
39 comments3 min readLW link

The silos of ex­per­tise: be­yond heuris­tics and biases

Stuart_Armstrong26 Jun 2014 13:13 UTC
48 points
16 comments9 min readLW link

[Re­tracted] Simp­son’s para­dox strikes again: there is no great stag­na­tion?

CarlShulman30 Jul 2012 17:55 UTC
41 points
51 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How much can sur­gi­cal masks help with wild­fire smoke?

Gordon Seidoh Worley21 Aug 2020 15:46 UTC
9 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Epistemic Com­par­i­son: First Prin­ci­ples Land vs. Mime­sis Land

ozziegooen21 Aug 2020 22:28 UTC
32 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What am I miss­ing? (quan­tum physics)

kithpendragon21 Aug 2020 12:39 UTC
10 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What posts on fi­nance would your find helpful or in­ter­est­ing?

Alexei22 Aug 2020 4:31 UTC
32 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

“The Holy Grail” of port­fo­lio management

Alexei22 Aug 2020 4:25 UTC
50 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Why don’t coun­tries, like com­pa­nies, more of­ten merge?

Vishrut Arya22 Aug 2020 23:56 UTC
13 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

Effi­cient Mar­ket Frontier

Alexei22 Aug 2020 23:52 UTC
19 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

We­bBun­dles and URL Randomization

jefftk26 Aug 2020 17:50 UTC
10 points
1 comment3 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Are We Right about How Effec­tive Mock­ery Is?

Ronny Fernandez27 Aug 2020 10:48 UTC
44 points
13 comments9 min readLW link

19th-cen­tury progress studies

jasoncrawford27 Aug 2020 2:28 UTC
30 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Notes on “The An­thro­pol­ogy of Child­hood”

juliawise27 Aug 2020 17:11 UTC
178 points
10 comments45 min readLW link

[Question] What is the in­ter­pre­ta­tion of the do() op­er­a­tor?

Bunthut26 Aug 2020 21:54 UTC
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

A Policy for Bit­ing Bullets

eapache31 Aug 2020 21:00 UTC
6 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2020.

NunoSempere1 Sep 2020 11:38 UTC
16 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

Au­gust 2020 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwern1 Sep 2020 21:04 UTC
25 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Study Group for Progress – 50% off for LessWrongers

jasoncrawford3 Sep 2020 0:17 UTC
14 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What’s the best overview of com­mon Micro­morts?

Raemon3 Sep 2020 2:39 UTC
37 points
8 comments1 min readLW link1 review

The Box Spread Trick: Get rich slightly faster

Thomas Kwa1 Sep 2020 21:41 UTC
40 points
44 comments6 min readLW link

Emo­tional valence vs RL re­ward: a video game analogy

Steven Byrnes3 Sep 2020 15:28 UTC
12 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

“How to Talk About Books You Haven’t Read”, by Pierre Bayard

Callmesalticidae3 Sep 2020 13:05 UTC
10 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Li and Vi­tanyi’s bad scholarship

alanf5 Sep 2020 8:07 UTC
−1 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Hello or­di­nary folks, I’m the Cho­sen One

dadadarren4 Sep 2020 19:59 UTC
20 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Why would code/​English or low-ab­strac­tion/​high-ab­strac­tion sim­plic­ity or brevity cor­re­spond?

curi4 Sep 2020 19:46 UTC
2 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Ice

Slimepriestess6 Sep 2020 18:30 UTC
35 points
1 comment6 min readLW link
(hivewired.wordpress.com)

Es­ca­la­tion Out­side the System

jefftk8 Sep 2020 18:20 UTC
25 points
11 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Loneliness

DirectedEvolution8 Sep 2020 8:14 UTC
15 points
0 comments12 min readLW link

[Question] Effi­cacy of Vi­tamin D in helping with COVID

df fd8 Sep 2020 10:49 UTC
16 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

CTWTB: Paths of Com­pu­ta­tion State

johnswentworth8 Sep 2020 20:44 UTC
38 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

[Question] De­ci­sion the­ory anal­y­sis of whether vac­cines should be dis­tributed prior to the com­ple­tion of stage three tri­als please

Tim Liptrot7 Sep 2020 23:50 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Up­dates Thread

Adam Zerner9 Sep 2020 4:34 UTC
56 points
41 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] So­cial Cap­i­tal Paradoxes

abramdemski10 Sep 2020 18:44 UTC
69 points
24 comments4 min readLW link

“In the Dust of This Planet,” by Eu­gene Thacker

Callmesalticidae10 Sep 2020 19:50 UTC
4 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

What’s Wrong with So­cial Science and How to Fix It: Reflec­tions After Read­ing 2578 Papers

habryka12 Sep 2020 1:46 UTC
104 points
22 comments2 min readLW link
(fantasticanachronism.com)

Progress: Fluke or trend?

jasoncrawford13 Sep 2020 0:21 UTC
16 points
19 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

How To Fermi Model

9 Sep 2020 5:13 UTC
85 points
9 comments11 min readLW link2 reviews

Against boots theory

philh14 Sep 2020 13:20 UTC
42 points
15 comments6 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

[Question] If Star­ship works, how much would it cost to cre­ate a sys­tem of rotable space mir­rors that re­duces tem­per­a­tures on earth by 1° C?

ChristianKl14 Sep 2020 18:46 UTC
13 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Work­ing With Contracts

johnswentworth14 Sep 2020 23:22 UTC
160 points
26 comments11 min readLW link

A case study in simu­lacra lev­els and the Four Chil­dren of the Seder

DirectedEvolution14 Sep 2020 22:31 UTC
32 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Most Pri­soner’s Dilem­mas are Stag Hunts; Most Stag Hunts are Schel­ling Problems

abramdemski14 Sep 2020 22:13 UTC
170 points
37 comments10 min readLW link3 reviews

What Does “Sig­nal­ling” Mean?

abramdemski16 Sep 2020 21:19 UTC
38 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are ex­am­ples of sim­pler uni­verses that have been de­scribed in or­der to ex­plain a con­cept from our more com­plex uni­verse?

Mati_Roy17 Sep 2020 1:31 UTC
4 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­pan­sive trans­la­tions: con­sid­er­a­tions and possibilities

ozziegooen18 Sep 2020 15:39 UTC
43 points
15 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Are air­craft car­ri­ers su­per vuln­er­a­ble in a mod­ern war?

Liron20 Sep 2020 18:52 UTC
15 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How of­ten do se­ries C star­tups fail to exit?

Jessica Shu21 Sep 2020 19:37 UTC
14 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Com­par­a­tive Ad­van­tage is Not About Trade

johnswentworth22 Sep 2020 18:43 UTC
85 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Vi­su­al­iz­ing the text­book for fun and profit

DirectedEvolution24 Sep 2020 19:37 UTC
25 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

I have dis­cov­ered a new kind of un­em­ploy­ment.

Nathan Brooks24 Sep 2020 1:04 UTC
12 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(seekingalpha.com)

[Question] What hard sci­ence fic­tion sto­ries also got the so­cial sci­ences right?

Mati_Roy27 Sep 2020 20:37 UTC
15 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

Do­ing dis­course bet­ter: Stuff I wish I knew

dynomight29 Sep 2020 14:34 UTC
27 points
11 comments1 min readLW link
(dyno-might.github.io)

Holy Grails of Chemistry

chemslug30 Sep 2020 2:03 UTC
34 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Three car seats?

jefftk1 Oct 2020 14:30 UTC
16 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2020 11:00 UTC
21 points
3 comments11 min readLW link

Math That Clicks: Look for Two-Way Correspondences

TurnTrout2 Oct 2020 1:22 UTC
35 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

At­ten­tion to snakes not fear of snakes: evolu­tion en­cod­ing en­vi­ron­men­tal knowl­edge in periph­eral systems

Kaj_Sotala2 Oct 2020 11:50 UTC
44 points
1 comment3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Weird Things About Money

abramdemski3 Oct 2020 17:13 UTC
76 points
31 comments6 min readLW link

Fish­bowl re­al­ity

Elo4 Oct 2020 2:16 UTC
11 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Link] Faster than Light in Our Model of Physics: Some Pre­limi­nary Thoughts—Stephen Wolfram Writings

Kenny4 Oct 2020 20:26 UTC
1 point
14 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Fermi Challenge: Trains and Air Cargo

Ben Pace5 Oct 2020 21:51 UTC
23 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

The Rise and Fall of Amer­i­can Growth: A summary

jasoncrawford5 Oct 2020 21:41 UTC
58 points
9 comments11 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Poli­ti­cal Lot­tery in Switzerland

Martin Sustrik8 Oct 2020 5:03 UTC
29 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

More Ques­tions about Trees

digital_carver9 Oct 2020 8:35 UTC
3 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(bit-player.org)

Some el­e­ments of in­dus­trial literacy

jasoncrawford8 Oct 2020 19:51 UTC
9 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Ex­am­ples of pos­i­tive-sum(ish) games?

NicholasKross10 Oct 2020 21:09 UTC
3 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Charisma is a Force Multiplier

Davis_Kingsley11 Oct 2020 10:21 UTC
34 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Tech­nol­ogy and its side effects

jasoncrawford13 Oct 2020 20:07 UTC
17 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

A prior for tech­nolog­i­cal discontinuities

NunoSempere13 Oct 2020 16:51 UTC
70 points
17 comments6 min readLW link

Le­gal­ize Black­mail: An Example

Tim Liptrot14 Oct 2020 21:18 UTC
0 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is Stu­pidity Ex­pand­ing? Some Hy­pothe­ses.

David Gross15 Oct 2020 3:28 UTC
70 points
42 comments5 min readLW link

Eval­u­at­ing ex­per­tise: a clear box model

JustinShovelain15 Oct 2020 14:18 UTC
36 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Covid 10/​15: Play­time is Over

Zvi15 Oct 2020 14:30 UTC
74 points
22 comments17 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Moloch games

Chris van Merwijk16 Oct 2020 15:19 UTC
79 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

You have re­cov­ered from SARS-CoV-2. Now what?

Annapurna18 Oct 2020 17:52 UTC
15 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

[Question] Has any­one re­searched speci­fi­ca­tion gam­ing with biolog­i­cal an­i­mals?

David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)21 Oct 2020 0:20 UTC
9 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 10/​22: Europe in Crisis

Zvi22 Oct 2020 15:40 UTC
80 points
13 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

“Lit­tle glimpses of em­pa­thy” as the foun­da­tion for so­cial emotions

Steven Byrnes22 Oct 2020 11:02 UTC
31 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Limited agents need ap­prox­i­mate induction

Manfred24 Apr 2015 7:42 UTC
16 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] What is the cur­rent bot­tle­neck on ge­netic en­g­ineer­ing of hu­man em­bryos for im­proved IQ

Eli Tyre23 Oct 2020 2:36 UTC
35 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What is our true life ex­pec­tancy?

Adam Zerner23 Oct 2020 23:17 UTC
14 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Lo­cal So­lar Time

jefftk23 Oct 2020 19:40 UTC
16 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Su­per­vised learn­ing of out­puts in the brain

Steven Byrnes26 Oct 2020 14:32 UTC
27 points
9 comments10 min readLW link

In­te­gers as Compression

Chris_Leong28 Oct 2020 7:36 UTC
9 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What’s hold­ing back out­sourc­ing to cloud labs?

ChristianKl28 Oct 2020 23:07 UTC
25 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

How to Find the Fron­tiers of Knowledge

Samo Burja30 Oct 2020 10:50 UTC
60 points
1 comment9 min readLW link
(medium.com)

[Question] Why does His­tory as­sume equal na­tional in­tel­li­gence?

HumaneAutomation30 Oct 2020 23:11 UTC
1 point
38 comments1 min readLW link

Why I Pre­fer the Copen­hagen In­ter­pre­ta­tion(s)

dadadarren31 Oct 2020 21:06 UTC
5 points
44 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Oc­to­ber 2020 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwern1 Nov 2020 21:38 UTC
24 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

[Question] What is the right phrase for “the­o­ret­i­cal ev­i­dence”?

Adam Zerner1 Nov 2020 20:43 UTC
24 points
41 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Nov 2020 13:09 UTC
11 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

The Born Rule is Time-Symmetric

lsusr1 Nov 2020 23:24 UTC
1 point
17 comments1 min readLW link

Zeno’s Paradoxes

Chris_Leong1 Nov 2020 23:39 UTC
8 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Three more sto­ries about causation

cousin_it3 Nov 2020 15:51 UTC
15 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

When Money Is Abun­dant, Knowl­edge Is The Real Wealth

johnswentworth3 Nov 2020 17:34 UTC
285 points
61 comments5 min readLW link3 reviews

[Question] Where do (did?) sta­ble, co­op­er­a­tive in­sti­tu­tions come from?

AnnaSalamon3 Nov 2020 22:14 UTC
148 points
75 comments4 min readLW link

Gifts Which Money Can­not Buy

johnswentworth4 Nov 2020 19:37 UTC
78 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Mul­ti­ple Wor­lds, One Univer­sal Wave Function

evhub4 Nov 2020 22:28 UTC
47 points
76 comments25 min readLW link

Notes on Jus­tice (as a virtue)

David Gross5 Nov 2020 20:27 UTC
5 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

Im­pos­tor Syn­drome as skill/​dom­i­nance mismatch

Viliam5 Nov 2020 20:05 UTC
90 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Heat Engine

johnswentworth5 Nov 2020 19:01 UTC
155 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

“model scores” is a ques­tion­able concept

Maxwell Peterson6 Nov 2020 3:19 UTC
26 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Heat Eng­ine II: Ther­mo­dy­namic Effi­ciency Limit

johnswentworth6 Nov 2020 17:30 UTC
61 points
1 comment7 min readLW link

A re­view of Where Is My Fly­ing Car? by J. Storrs Hall

jasoncrawford6 Nov 2020 20:01 UTC
101 points
21 comments11 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Ethics in Many Worlds

fin6 Nov 2020 23:21 UTC
8 points
23 comments9 min readLW link

Three Open Prob­lems in Aging

johnswentworth7 Nov 2020 19:39 UTC
48 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions made by Mati Roy in early 2020

Mati_Roy21 Nov 2020 3:24 UTC
23 points
7 comments16 min readLW link

Why philos­o­phy of sci­ence?

Richard_Ngo7 Nov 2020 11:10 UTC
53 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

Can we prime peo­ple to take risk?

tonyoconnor7 Nov 2020 17:17 UTC
5 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Nu­clear war is un­likely to cause hu­man extinction

Jeffrey Ladish7 Nov 2020 5:42 UTC
113 points
47 comments11 min readLW link3 reviews

When Hind­sight Isn’t 20/​20: In­cen­tive De­sign With Im­perfect Credit Allocation

johnswentworth8 Nov 2020 19:16 UTC
71 points
24 comments6 min readLW link

Fre­quen­tist prac­tice in­cor­po­rates prior in­for­ma­tion all the time

Maxwell Peterson7 Nov 2020 20:43 UTC
18 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Costs and benefits of metaphysics

George3d69 Nov 2020 14:31 UTC
11 points
1 comment11 min readLW link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

9 Nov 2020 16:20 UTC
43 points
20 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What frac­tion of Dan Ariely’s Ir­ra­tional Game hasn’t repli­cated?

Mati_Roy9 Nov 2020 20:25 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

My de­fault frame: some fun­da­men­tals and back­ground beliefs

Pontor10 Nov 2020 0:04 UTC
6 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] What Would Ad­vanced So­cial Tech­nol­ogy Look Like?

johnswentworth10 Nov 2020 17:55 UTC
43 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

Why I’m Writ­ing A Book

Samo Burja10 Nov 2020 16:50 UTC
33 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Are the so­cial sci­ences challeng­ing be­cause of fun­da­men­tal difficul­ties or be­cause of im­posed ones?

ozziegooen10 Nov 2020 4:56 UTC
55 points
13 comments11 min readLW link

Think in Terms of Ac­tions, not Attributes

Collisteru11 Nov 2020 15:57 UTC
7 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Link] Digi­tal Democ­racy Is Within Reach

Alexei11 Nov 2020 22:12 UTC
20 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(your-undivided-attention.simplecast.com)

A Cor­re­spon­dence The­o­rem in the Max­i­mum En­tropy Framework

johnswentworth11 Nov 2020 22:46 UTC
33 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Book re­view: Age Later

PeterMcCluskey27 Oct 2020 4:21 UTC
28 points
3 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

[Question] Where can I find good ex­pla­na­tions of the cen­tral limit the­o­rems for peo­ple with a Bayesian back­ground?

Maxwell Peterson13 Nov 2020 16:36 UTC
2 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Charts

Rafael Harth13 Nov 2020 16:12 UTC
28 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

A Self-Embed­ded Prob­a­bil­is­tic Model

johnswentworth13 Nov 2020 20:36 UTC
30 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

The Dar­win Game—Rounds 3 to 9

lsusr14 Nov 2020 2:26 UTC
24 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

The Wis­dom of the Crowd so­cial learn­ing group

Jason Geringer13 Nov 2020 21:33 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forms.gle)

My Con­fu­sion about Mo­ral Philos­o­phy

Nacruno9614 Nov 2020 3:49 UTC
1 point
14 comments3 min readLW link

Spe­cial­ized La­bor and Coun­ter­fac­tual Compensation

philh14 Nov 2020 18:13 UTC
18 points
2 comments19 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

On Ar­gu­ments for God

Chris_Leong14 Nov 2020 9:06 UTC
9 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

15 Nov 2020 21:12 UTC
68 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

How Rood­man’s GWP model trans­lates to TAI timelines

Daniel Kokotajlo16 Nov 2020 14:05 UTC
22 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Anatomy of a Gear

johnswentworth16 Nov 2020 16:34 UTC
76 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] How can labour pro­duc­tivity growth be an in­di­ca­tor of au­toma­tion?

Polytopos16 Nov 2020 21:16 UTC
2 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

On the Shoulders of Giants

meanderingmoose17 Nov 2020 18:10 UTC
1 point
5 comments6 min readLW link

AGI Predictions

21 Nov 2020 3:46 UTC
110 points
36 comments4 min readLW link

The cen­tral limit the­o­rem in terms of convolutions

Maxwell Peterson21 Nov 2020 4:09 UTC
36 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

My in­tel­lec­tual influences

Richard_Ngo22 Nov 2020 18:00 UTC
92 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

It’s not eco­nom­i­cally in­effi­cient for a UBI to re­duce re­cip­i­ent’s employment

paulfchristiano22 Nov 2020 16:40 UTC
87 points
60 comments4 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

De­mys­tify­ing the Se­cond Law of Thermodynamics

Eigil Rischel22 Nov 2020 13:52 UTC
9 points
8 comments6 min readLW link

Syn­tax, se­man­tics, and sym­bol ground­ing, simplified

Stuart_Armstrong23 Nov 2020 16:12 UTC
30 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

Sny­der-Beat­tie, Sand­berg, Drexler & Bon­sall (2020): The Timing of Evolu­tion­ary Tran­si­tions Suggests In­tel­li­gent Life Is Rare

Kaj_Sotala24 Nov 2020 10:36 UTC
83 points
20 comments2 min readLW link
(www.liebertpub.com)

Con­volu­tion as smoothing

Maxwell Peterson25 Nov 2020 6:00 UTC
27 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Squig­gle: An Overview

ozziegooen24 Nov 2020 3:00 UTC
59 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

The Ex­ploita­bil­ity/​Ex­plain­abil­ity Frontier

ike26 Nov 2020 0:59 UTC
24 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Squig­gle: Tech­ni­cal Overview

ozziegooen25 Nov 2020 20:51 UTC
18 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

De­con­struct­ing 321 Voting

abramdemski26 Nov 2020 3:35 UTC
39 points
5 comments6 min readLW link

Ma­tryoshka Fara­day Box

lsusr26 Nov 2020 9:42 UTC
45 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Evolu­tion and fit­ness vs self-aware­ness and memetics

FractalParrot29 Nov 2020 21:07 UTC
3 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Book re­view: WEIRDest People

PeterMcCluskey30 Nov 2020 3:33 UTC
97 points
54 comments9 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

[Question] Why did the Ming trea­sure voy­ages end in 1433?

ChristianKl30 Nov 2020 13:30 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Linkpost] AlphaFold: a solu­tion to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology

adamShimi30 Nov 2020 17:33 UTC
54 points
22 comments1 min readLW link
(deepmind.com)

Non-Book Re­view: Pat­terns of Conflict

johnswentworth30 Nov 2020 21:05 UTC
38 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2020

NunoSempere1 Dec 2020 17:00 UTC
29 points
5 comments12 min readLW link

Book Re­view: ‘His­tory Has Be­gun: The Birth of a New Amer­ica’ by Bruno Maçães

tonyoconnor1 Dec 2020 11:47 UTC
3 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

Why Re­cent Protein Fold­ing Ad­vance­ments Should Change Your Per­sonal Health Strategy

lisperati3 Dec 2020 2:39 UTC
11 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Novem­ber 2020 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwern3 Dec 2020 22:47 UTC
14 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Real-Life Ex­am­ples of Pre­dic­tion Sys­tems In­terfer­ing with the Real World (Pre­dict-O-Matic Prob­lems)

NunoSempere3 Dec 2020 22:00 UTC
120 points
29 comments9 min readLW link

The Hard Prob­lem of Magic

enaumov4 Dec 2020 18:51 UTC
0 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Cul­tural accumulation

KatjaGrace6 Dec 2020 6:20 UTC
91 points
53 comments3 min readLW link
(meteuphoric.com)

1960: The Year The Sin­gu­lar­ity Was Cancelled

Scott Alexander23 Apr 2019 1:30 UTC
96 points
15 comments11 min readLW link1 review
(slatestarcodex.com)

An el­e­gant proof of Laplace’s rule of succession

Eric Neyman7 Dec 2020 22:43 UTC
33 points
12 comments8 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Walk to a San Fran­cisco FedEx

KatjaGrace9 Dec 2020 8:50 UTC
27 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Notes on Know-how

David Gross9 Dec 2020 17:21 UTC
10 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Parable of the Dammed

johnswentworth10 Dec 2020 0:08 UTC
106 points
27 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What tech­nolo­gies could cause world GDP dou­bling times to be <8 years?

Daniel Kokotajlo10 Dec 2020 15:34 UTC
43 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

Un­ex­plored modes of language

KatjaGrace10 Dec 2020 7:00 UTC
28 points
20 comments2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Flights of wonder

KatjaGrace11 Dec 2020 10:50 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

The Fermi Para­dox has not been dis­solved—James Fodor

mako yass12 Dec 2020 23:18 UTC
30 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

[Question] What con­fu­sions do peo­ple have about simu­lacrum lev­els?

johnswentworth14 Dec 2020 20:20 UTC
28 points
31 comments1 min readLW link

The wild

KatjaGrace15 Dec 2020 10:50 UTC
17 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

In­cen­tiviz­ing fore­cast­ing via so­cial media

16 Dec 2020 12:15 UTC
19 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

[Question] How long till In­verse AlphaFold?

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Dec 2020 19:56 UTC
41 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

We des­per­ately need to talk more about hu­man challenge tri­als.

DirectedEvolution19 Dec 2020 10:00 UTC
28 points
25 comments4 min readLW link

In­ter­ac­tive ex­plo­ra­tion of LessWrong and other large col­lec­tions of documents

20 Dec 2020 19:06 UTC
49 points
9 comments10 min readLW link

The Best Vi­su­al­iza­tions on Every Subject

ryan_b21 Dec 2020 22:51 UTC
58 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

When life was liter­ally full of crap

jasoncrawford21 Dec 2020 21:16 UTC
59 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

The First Sam­ple Gives the Most Information

Mark Xu24 Dec 2020 20:39 UTC
118 points
14 comments1 min readLW link1 review
(markxu.com)

[Question] What ev­i­dence will tell us about the new strain? How are you up­dat­ing?

Zvi25 Dec 2020 21:37 UTC
83 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Perfec­tion­ism as depth-first search

MSRayne29 Dec 2020 1:49 UTC
5 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Book Re­view: On In­tel­li­gence by Jeff Hawk­ins (and San­dra Blakeslee)

Rafael Harth29 Dec 2020 19:48 UTC
20 points
7 comments14 min readLW link

The map and ter­ri­tory of NFT art

frcassarino29 Dec 2020 11:45 UTC
27 points
13 comments5 min readLW link
(federicorcassarino.substack.com)

Stock mar­ket hints for 2021 from past crashes

bfinn30 Dec 2020 20:05 UTC
19 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

SpaceX will have mas­sive im­pact in the next decade

ChristianKl31 Dec 2020 1:04 UTC
35 points
30 comments2 min readLW link

A Sim­plified Ver­sion of Per­spec­tive Solu­tion to the Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

dadadarren31 Dec 2020 18:27 UTC
9 points
40 comments5 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Pre­dic­tions for 2021

Eric Neyman31 Dec 2020 21:12 UTC
8 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2020

NunoSempere1 Jan 2021 16:07 UTC
13 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

More predictions

Tim Liptrot2 Jan 2021 15:53 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What tech­ni­cal-ish books do you recom­mend that are read­able on Kin­dle?

Rudi C3 Jan 2021 20:54 UTC
3 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Ra­tional Ot­tawa Pre­dic­tions for 2021

eapache3 Jan 2021 20:53 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(grandunifiedempty.com)

The Sense-Mak­ing Web

Chris_Leong4 Jan 2021 6:17 UTC
39 points
21 comments6 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions for 2021 (+ a tem­plate for yours)

epiphi5 Jan 2021 3:35 UTC
17 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Why is loss of mus­cle cells not con­sid­ered one of the hal­l­marks of ag­ing?

ChristianKl5 Jan 2021 14:19 UTC
11 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Links for Dec 2020

ike5 Jan 2021 19:53 UTC
12 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(www.facebook.com)

Cen­trally planned war

KatjaGrace6 Jan 2021 10:40 UTC
15 points
24 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Grokking illusionism

Joe Carlsmith6 Jan 2021 5:50 UTC
41 points
49 comments9 min readLW link

Les­sons from “The Book of My Life”

bmgarfinkel6 Jan 2021 22:40 UTC
104 points
3 comments16 min readLW link
(benmgarfinkel.wordpress.com)

Grad­ing my 2020 predictions

Eric Neyman7 Jan 2021 0:33 UTC
8 points
0 comments11 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Why the out­side view sug­gests that longevity es­cape ve­loc­ity is a long time away and cry­on­ics is a much more fea­si­ble op­tion for those al­ive to­day: sig­nal-boost­ing a com­ment by Calm-Meet9916 on Reddit

Synaptic8 Jan 2021 17:20 UTC
32 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Jo­hannes Ke­pler, Sun Worshipper

Ruby9 Jan 2021 7:09 UTC
35 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

2020: Fore­cast­ing in Re­view.

NunoSempere10 Jan 2021 16:06 UTC
28 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

A differ­ent dictionary

KatjaGrace10 Jan 2021 6:30 UTC
17 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

[Question] Base rate of RCT from de­vel­op­ing coun­tries find­ing un­ex­pected effects

MichaelLowe12 Jan 2021 1:57 UTC
18 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Any ex­am­ples of peo­ple an­a­lyz­ing/​cri­tiquing sci­en­tific stud­ies or pa­pers?

warrenjordan13 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
3 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

In­te­grat­ing the Lindy Effect

lsusr7 Sep 2019 17:38 UTC
50 points
11 comments2 min readLW link1 review

Med­i­ta­tions on faith

Richard_Ngo15 Jan 2021 22:20 UTC
30 points
9 comments6 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

AR Glasses: Much more than you wanted to know

frcassarino16 Jan 2021 0:31 UTC
12 points
6 comments17 min readLW link
(federicorcassarino.substack.com)

[Question] Why do stocks go up?

tryactions17 Jan 2021 16:36 UTC
27 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How can I find trust­wor­thy dietary ad­vice?

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Jan 2021 13:11 UTC
30 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

What is go­ing on in the world?

KatjaGrace17 Jan 2021 11:30 UTC
84 points
48 comments3 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Use con­di­tional prob­a­bil­ities to clear up er­ror rate confusion

Maxwell Peterson17 Jan 2021 8:27 UTC
5 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Three types of Evidence

Rafael Harth19 Jan 2021 17:25 UTC
14 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Dis­cov­ery fic­tion for the Pythagorean theorem

riceissa19 Jan 2021 2:09 UTC
15 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Demo­cratic Currency

MikkW19 Jan 2021 5:32 UTC
11 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Matt Lev­ine on “Fraud is no fun with­out friends.”

Raemon19 Jan 2021 18:23 UTC
104 points
24 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bloomberg.com)

Deutsch and Yud­kowsky on sci­en­tific explanation

Richard_Ngo20 Jan 2021 1:00 UTC
25 points
19 comments6 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

The Tele­olog­i­cal Mechanism

Gordon Seidoh Worley19 Jan 2021 23:58 UTC
7 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion: As­tra Zeneca ap­proval date

Tim Liptrot19 Jan 2021 21:59 UTC
11 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Zen and Ra­tion­al­ity: Karma

Gordon Seidoh Worley12 Jan 2021 20:56 UTC
11 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Multi-Tower Study Strategy

DirectedEvolution21 Jan 2021 8:42 UTC
51 points
8 comments8 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] The Chrysan­the­mum and the Sword

lsusr22 Jan 2021 6:29 UTC
24 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How good are our mouse mod­els (psy­chol­ogy, biol­ogy, medicine, etc.), ig­nor­ing trans­la­tion into hu­mans, just in terms of un­der­stand­ing mice? (Same ques­tion for drosophila.)

Ruby22 Jan 2021 20:45 UTC
60 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­er­cise: Ta­boo “Should”

johnswentworth22 Jan 2021 21:02 UTC
91 points
25 comments9 min readLW link

Ten­ta­tive covid sur­face risk estimates

KatjaGrace25 Jan 2021 9:40 UTC
92 points
8 comments2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

A per­spec­tive on co­vari­ate ad­just­ment and con­found­ing in ran­dom­ized ex­per­i­ments.

Darren25 Jan 2021 20:22 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

What is up with spiritu­al­ity?

KatjaGrace27 Jan 2021 6:20 UTC
20 points
14 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Build Your Num­ber Sense

DirectedEvolution27 Jan 2021 21:01 UTC
21 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Has any­one on LW writ­ten about ma­te­rial bot­tle­necks be­ing the main fac­tor in mak­ing any tech­nolog­i­cal progress?

George3d627 Jan 2021 14:14 UTC
11 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Did con­va­les­cent plasma ther­apy drive the evolu­tion of more in­fec­tious covid strains?

Angela Pretorius27 Jan 2021 6:16 UTC
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Where num­bers come from

Eigil Rischel28 Jan 2021 21:33 UTC
27 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] For those who ad­vo­cate Anki

jmh31 Jan 2021 0:01 UTC
20 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Smug­gled frames

Artyom Kazak1 Feb 2021 1:22 UTC
64 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2021

NunoSempere1 Feb 2021 23:07 UTC
20 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

Late-talk­ing kids and “Ein­stein syn­drome”

Steven Byrnes3 Feb 2021 15:16 UTC
30 points
27 comments6 min readLW link

Covid cafes

KatjaGrace3 Feb 2021 8:20 UTC
24 points
9 comments3 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

In­tu­itions about utilities

mingyuan6 Feb 2021 0:12 UTC
32 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Fake Frame­works for Zen Med­i­ta­tion (Sum­mary of Sek­ida’s Zen Train­ing)

Gordon Seidoh Worley6 Feb 2021 15:38 UTC
52 points
10 comments10 min readLW link

Democ­racy, Bureau­cracy, Cen­tral Banking

Martin Sustrik7 Feb 2021 8:54 UTC
18 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

Why I Am Not in Charge

Zvi7 Feb 2021 18:20 UTC
142 points
22 comments25 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Met­ric se­lec­tion bias: why Moore’s law is less im­por­tant than you think

Aaron Bergman8 Feb 2021 0:21 UTC
18 points
10 comments6 min readLW link
(aaronbergman.substack.com)

His­tory of the Public Suffix List

jefftk7 Feb 2021 22:20 UTC
11 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Book re­view: The Geog­ra­phy of Thought

PeterMcCluskey9 Feb 2021 18:47 UTC
72 points
37 comments5 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Still Not in Charge

Zvi9 Feb 2021 16:00 UTC
46 points
26 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Un­wit­ting cult leaders

Kaj_Sotala11 Feb 2021 11:10 UTC
107 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

[Question] What does the FDA ac­tu­ally do be­tween get­ting the trial re­sults and hav­ing their meet­ing?

ChristianKl12 Feb 2021 13:08 UTC
28 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Su­per-fore­cast­ers as a ser­vice

frcassarino12 Feb 2021 13:35 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(federicorcassarino.substack.com)

Notes on Hen­rich’s “The WEIRDest Peo­ple in the World” (2020)

MichaelA14 Feb 2021 8:40 UTC
17 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Chi­nese History

lsusr15 Feb 2021 6:43 UTC
43 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Math­e­mat­i­cal Models of Progress?

abramdemski16 Feb 2021 0:21 UTC
28 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

He­lio­cen­trism in the an­cient era

ForensicOceanography16 Feb 2021 8:34 UTC
16 points
6 comments6 min readLW link
(forensicoceanography.wordpress.com)

Gen­er­al­ised mod­els as a category

Stuart_Armstrong16 Feb 2021 16:08 UTC
24 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Prepar­ing to land on Jezero Crater, Mars: Notes from NASEM livestream

Yitz17 Feb 2021 19:35 UTC
3 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

On the Na­ture of Reputation

Martin Sustrik20 Feb 2021 12:50 UTC
17 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

The Kelly Cri­te­rion in 3D

lsusr20 Feb 2021 8:21 UTC
44 points
17 comments2 min readLW link

Ex­po­nen­tial growth is the baseline

jasoncrawford22 Feb 2021 2:08 UTC
27 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

The slopes to com­mon sense

George3d622 Feb 2021 19:22 UTC
47 points
19 comments8 min readLW link
(cerebralab.com)

[Fic­tion] Lena (MMAcevedo)

Kaj_Sotala23 Feb 2021 19:46 UTC
43 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(qntm.org)

Sur­vey on cor­ti­cal unifor­mity—an ex­pert am­plifi­ca­tion exercise

23 Feb 2021 22:13 UTC
37 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Differ­ent kinds of lan­guage proficiency

Kaj_Sotala26 Feb 2021 18:20 UTC
34 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

The Case for Pri­vacy Optimism

bmgarfinkel10 Mar 2020 20:30 UTC
43 points
1 comment32 min readLW link
(benmgarfinkel.wordpress.com)

Naïve Set The­ory—Part 1: Con­struc­tion of Sets

Sai Sasank Y28 Feb 2021 11:57 UTC
1 point
23 comments2 min readLW link

Kelly *is* (just) about log­a­r­ith­mic utility

abramdemski1 Mar 2021 20:02 UTC
83 points
20 comments12 min readLW link

[Question] Are the Born prob­a­bil­ities re­ally that mys­te­ri­ous?

Adele Lopez2 Mar 2021 3:08 UTC
44 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2021

NunoSempere1 Mar 2021 21:51 UTC
13 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Tap Water and Filtration

manaterra2 Mar 2021 3:45 UTC
15 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Some re­cent in­ter­views with AI/​math lu­mi­nar­ies.

fowlertm4 Mar 2021 1:26 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A Semitech­ni­cal In­tro­duc­tory Dialogue on Solomonoff Induction

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Mar 2021 17:27 UTC
127 points
34 comments54 min readLW link

Why Selec­tive Breed­ing is a Bad Way to do Ge­netic Engineering

GeneSmith5 Mar 2021 2:30 UTC
9 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What (fea­si­ble) aug­mented senses would be use­ful or in­ter­est­ing?

AprilSR6 Mar 2021 4:28 UTC
8 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

The av­er­age North Korean mathematician

Malmesbury7 Mar 2021 17:28 UTC
65 points
19 comments8 min readLW link
(www.telescopic-turnip.net)

Teach­ing to Compromise

Martin Sustrik7 Mar 2021 13:57 UTC
15 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Book Notes: Scal­ing, Why is An­i­mal Size so Im­por­tant?

ketchupduck7 Mar 2021 20:16 UTC
19 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

[Lec­ture Club] Awak­en­ing from the Mean­ing Crisis

Vaniver8 Mar 2021 15:22 UTC
69 points
186 comments2 min readLW link

What I’d change about differ­ent philos­o­phy fields

Rob Bensinger8 Mar 2021 18:25 UTC
56 points
52 comments4 min readLW link

Will Mar­tian G be enough to make healthy baseline ba­bies?

Randomized, Controlled9 Mar 2021 3:30 UTC
4 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

D&D.Sci III Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

abstractapplic8 Mar 2021 23:01 UTC
14 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

[Pre­dic­tion] The Con­se­quences of Rad­i­cal Reform

lsusr9 Mar 2021 23:05 UTC
36 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

Defla­tion­ism isn’t the solu­tion to philos­o­phy’s woes

Rob Bensinger10 Mar 2021 0:20 UTC
62 points
45 comments8 min readLW link

Quaran­tine variety

KatjaGrace10 Mar 2021 8:40 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

An­i­mal faces

KatjaGrace11 Mar 2021 8:50 UTC
45 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

[Question] Ri­gor­ous poli­ti­cal sci­ence?

abramdemski12 Mar 2021 15:30 UTC
23 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­iz­ing POWER to multi-agent games

22 Mar 2021 2:41 UTC
52 points
17 comments7 min readLW link

Fe­bru­ary 2021 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwern13 Mar 2021 14:57 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Blue is Arbitrary

lsusr14 Mar 2021 9:04 UTC
59 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

What’s So Bad About Ad-Hoc Math­e­mat­i­cal Defi­ni­tions?

johnswentworth15 Mar 2021 21:51 UTC
168 points
57 comments7 min readLW link

Con­ver­sa­tion Ex­change Statistics

lsusr16 Mar 2021 8:50 UTC
23 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

On At­tempts to Tran­scend our Models of Numbers

Chris_Leong17 Mar 2021 8:37 UTC
9 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

“Ob­jec­tive vs So­cial Real­ity” vs “Si­mu­lacra 1/​3″

Raemon17 Mar 2021 22:15 UTC
27 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Is RL in­volved in sen­sory pro­cess­ing?

Steven Byrnes18 Mar 2021 13:57 UTC
21 points
21 comments5 min readLW link

Acetyl­choline = Learn­ing rate (aka plas­tic­ity)

Steven Byrnes18 Mar 2021 13:57 UTC
32 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Book Club: Soft­ware De­sign for Flexibility

stuhlmueller18 Mar 2021 15:42 UTC
43 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Why sig­moids are so hard to predict

Stuart_Armstrong18 Mar 2021 18:21 UTC
48 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

Chaos In­duces Abstractions

johnswentworth18 Mar 2021 20:08 UTC
88 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

Jean Mon­net: The Guerilla Bureaucrat

Martin Sustrik20 Mar 2021 10:37 UTC
167 points
23 comments18 min readLW link

“Med­i­ta­tion for skep­tics” – a re­view of two books, and some thoughts

Sherrinford20 Mar 2021 23:35 UTC
16 points
4 comments12 min readLW link

Trust sta­tus sigmoidally

DirectedEvolution20 Mar 2021 19:50 UTC
15 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Fish­e­rian Ru­n­away as a de­ci­sion-the­o­retic problem

Bunthut20 Mar 2021 16:34 UTC
11 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

A dash­board for progress

jasoncrawford21 Mar 2021 3:51 UTC
24 points
9 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Mov­ing Data Around is Slow

SatvikBeri22 Mar 2021 2:36 UTC
34 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

My re­search methodology

paulfchristiano22 Mar 2021 21:20 UTC
148 points
36 comments16 min readLW link
(ai-alignment.com)

Thirty-three ran­domly se­lected bioethics papers

Rob Bensinger22 Mar 2021 21:38 UTC
107 points
45 comments50 min readLW link

The dan­ger of er­ror descriptions

gistya25 Mar 2021 20:05 UTC
−1 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Com­mu­ni­ca­tion Re­quires Com­mon In­ter­ests or Differ­en­tial Sig­nal Costs

Zack_M_Davis26 Mar 2021 6:41 UTC
31 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Core Path­ways of Aging

johnswentworth28 Mar 2021 0:31 UTC
245 points
116 comments22 min readLW link1 review

The (not so) para­dox­i­cal asym­me­try be­tween po­si­tion and momentum

Erik Jenner28 Mar 2021 13:31 UTC
21 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

In­framea­sures and Do­main Theory

Diffractor28 Mar 2021 9:19 UTC
27 points
3 comments33 min readLW link

In­fra-Do­main Proofs 2

Diffractor28 Mar 2021 9:15 UTC
13 points
0 comments21 min readLW link

In­fra-Do­main proofs 1

Diffractor28 Mar 2021 9:16 UTC
13 points
0 comments23 min readLW link

Bureau­cracy is a world of magic

dominicq29 Mar 2021 12:41 UTC
68 points
31 comments3 min readLW link

Sys­tem­atiz­ing Epistemics: Prin­ci­ples for Re­solv­ing Forecasts

Davidmanheim29 Mar 2021 20:46 UTC
33 points
8 comments11 min readLW link

Pro­gres­sive High­light­ing: Pick­ing What To Make Into Flashcards

DirectedEvolution29 Mar 2021 22:57 UTC
50 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Ju­lia Galef and Matt Ygle­sias on bioethics and “ethics ex­per­tise”

Rob Bensinger30 Mar 2021 3:06 UTC
45 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] TAI?

Logan Zoellner30 Mar 2021 12:41 UTC
12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

A com­mand-line gram­mar of graphics

philh30 Mar 2021 20:30 UTC
20 points
10 comments3 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Spec­u­la­tions Con­cern­ing the First Free-ish Pre­dic­tion Market

mike_hawke31 Mar 2021 3:20 UTC
29 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Could billions spa­cially dis­con­nected “Boltz­mann neu­rons” give rise to con­scious­ness?

Szymon Kucharski31 Mar 2021 19:58 UTC
5 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

What Do We Know About The Con­scious­ness, Any­way?

SurvivalBias31 Mar 2021 23:30 UTC
12 points
49 comments24 min readLW link

Bridg­ing Two Eso­teric 4-Value Log­ics Us­ing Quan­tum Physics: An­swered Mo­dal Logic vs Catuṣkoṭi

Sven Nilsen1 Apr 2021 0:34 UTC
4 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2021

NunoSempere1 Apr 2021 17:12 UTC
23 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

How Crypto Crosses the Moat

adaminoue1 Apr 2021 15:26 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.inoue.today)

The in­no­cent gene

Joe Carlsmith5 Apr 2021 3:31 UTC
38 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

His­tor­i­cal Ex­am­ples of Op­po­si­tion to Tech­nolog­i­cal Progress

chw5 Apr 2021 21:26 UTC
18 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

I’m from a par­allel Earth with much higher co­or­di­na­tion: AMA

5 Apr 2021 22:09 UTC
140 points
25 comments61 min readLW link

An In­tro­duc­tion to A Crack­pot Physics

ACrackedPot5 Apr 2021 23:59 UTC
−4 points
5 comments15 min readLW link

Test­ing The Nat­u­ral Ab­strac­tion Hy­poth­e­sis: Pro­ject Intro

johnswentworth6 Apr 2021 21:24 UTC
145 points
34 comments6 min readLW link

2020 pre­dic­tions—Poli­tics, Econ, Tech

Bucky7 Apr 2021 14:10 UTC
8 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Com­pound­ing In­cum­bent Advantage

adaminoue7 Apr 2021 13:40 UTC
3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(www.inoue.today)

In­sights from “All of Statis­tics”: Statis­ti­cal Inference

Rafael Harth8 Apr 2021 17:49 UTC
7 points
0 comments18 min readLW link

In­sights from “All of Statis­tics”: Probability

Rafael Harth8 Apr 2021 17:48 UTC
7 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

High­lights from The Au­to­bi­og­ra­phy of An­drew Carnegie

jasoncrawford8 Apr 2021 22:03 UTC
88 points
7 comments19 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

A Brief Re­view of Cur­rent and Near-Fu­ture Meth­ods of Ge­netic Engineering

GeneSmith10 Apr 2021 19:16 UTC
71 points
33 comments15 min readLW link

On Falsify­ing the Si­mu­la­tion Hy­poth­e­sis (or Em­brac­ing its Pre­dic­tions)

lorepieri12 Apr 2021 0:12 UTC
8 points
17 comments5 min readLW link

The Case for Ex­treme Vac­cine Effectiveness

Ruby13 Apr 2021 21:08 UTC
142 points
38 comments23 min readLW link

Placebo effect re­port: chi­ro­prac­tic adjustment

supposedlyfun15 Apr 2021 2:50 UTC
15 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

The Vari­a­tional Char­ac­ter­i­za­tion of Expectation

Zachary Robertson16 Apr 2021 0:12 UTC
3 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Most Analo­gies Are Wrong

J Bostock16 Apr 2021 19:53 UTC
8 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

All is fair in love and war, on Zero-sum games in life

Ratios17 Apr 2021 2:11 UTC
−6 points
22 comments4 min readLW link

Book re­view and policy dis­cus­sion: di­ver­sity and complexity

victorsintnicolaas17 Apr 2021 11:36 UTC
11 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Types of generalism

Nora_Ammann20 Apr 2021 8:22 UTC
24 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Hard vs Soft in fields as at­ti­tudes to­wards model collision

J Bostock20 Apr 2021 18:57 UTC
13 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Thiel on se­crets and indefiniteness

Rob Bensinger20 Apr 2021 21:59 UTC
57 points
7 comments9 min readLW link

A Crack­pot Physics: Time, Spe­cial Rel­a­tivity, and Why Bother?

ACrackedPot21 Apr 2021 20:17 UTC
−3 points
5 comments12 min readLW link

Löb’s the­o­rem sim­ply shows that Peano ar­ith­metic can­not prove its own soundness

Adrià Garriga-alonso22 Apr 2021 9:17 UTC
3 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

The Fall of Rome: Why It’s Rele­vant, And Why We’re Mistaken

LukeOnline23 Apr 2021 12:15 UTC
38 points
33 comments3 min readLW link

The Fall of Rome, II: En­ergy Prob­lems?

LukeOnline23 Apr 2021 17:58 UTC
29 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

How to Play a Sup­port Role in Re­search Conversations

johnswentworth23 Apr 2021 20:57 UTC
91 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Paper re­view: A Cryp­to­graphic Solu­tion to a Game The­o­retic Problem

victorsintnicolaas24 Apr 2021 11:54 UTC
23 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

The Fall of Rome, III: Progress Did Not Exist

LukeOnline25 Apr 2021 5:54 UTC
29 points
20 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] For mRNA vac­cines, is (short-term) effi­cacy re­ally higher af­ter the sec­ond dose?

Sam Marks25 Apr 2021 20:21 UTC
27 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a good soft­ware solu­tion for math­e­mat­i­cal ques­tions?

ChristianKl25 Apr 2021 18:03 UTC
9 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Would robots care about Mean­ing and Re­lat­ing?

Raemon25 Apr 2021 21:17 UTC
29 points
18 comments7 min readLW link

Be­ware over-use of the agent model

Alex Flint25 Apr 2021 22:19 UTC
28 points
10 comments5 min readLW link1 review

Bayesian and Fre­quen­tists Ap­proaches to Statis­ti­cal Analysis

Christopher Clark26 Apr 2021 0:18 UTC
4 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

Zvi27 Apr 2021 0:40 UTC
42 points
39 comments12 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Modern Mone­tary The­ory for Dummies

theflowerpot27 Apr 2021 13:11 UTC
7 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices

SimonM27 Apr 2021 14:03 UTC
51 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 pre­dic­tions: cal­ibra­tion and up­dat­ing exercise

Rob Bensinger29 Apr 2021 19:15 UTC
19 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

On Ch­ester­ton’s Fence

Martin Sustrik29 Apr 2021 14:56 UTC
1 point
9 comments2 min readLW link

Notes on Robert McIn­tyre’s Brain Preser­va­tion Talk at the Long Now Foundation

JohnGreer28 Apr 2021 20:47 UTC
7 points
3 comments13 min readLW link

Death by Red Tape

abramdemski1 May 2021 18:03 UTC
38 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2021

NunoSempere1 May 2021 16:07 UTC
9 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

[Linkpost] Teach­ing Para­dox, Europa Univer­alis IV, Part I: State of Play

adamShimi2 May 2021 9:02 UTC
17 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(acoup.blog)

Thoughts on Re-read­ing Brave New World

chemslug3 May 2021 3:28 UTC
10 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

Alzheimer’s, Hunt­ing­ton’s and Mi­to­chon­dria Part 1: Turnover Rates

J Bostock3 May 2021 14:46 UTC
10 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Alzheimer’s, Hunt­ing­ton’s and Mi­to­chon­dria Part 3: Pre­dic­tions and Retrospective

J Bostock3 May 2021 14:47 UTC
10 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What do the re­ported lev­els of pro­tec­tion offered by var­i­ous vac­cines mean?

David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)4 May 2021 22:06 UTC
10 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Why quan­ti­ta­tive fi­nance is so hard

lsusr7 May 2021 19:29 UTC
41 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Mi­graine hal­lu­ci­na­tions, phe­nomenol­ogy, and cognition

Richard_Kennaway8 May 2021 15:56 UTC
36 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Biolog­i­cal Holism: A New Paradigm?

Waddington9 May 2021 22:42 UTC
3 points
9 comments19 min readLW link

[Question] What is the best chem­istry text­book?

Maxwell Peterson11 May 2021 2:39 UTC
12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Mas­sachusetts Lyme Reporting

jefftk10 May 2021 22:40 UTC
27 points
12 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

A Wiki for Questions

weathersystems11 May 2021 2:31 UTC
17 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

Vac­cine Rol­lout as Wheeled-Lug­gage Problem

DirectedEvolution13 May 2021 21:04 UTC
28 points
24 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What will 2040 prob­a­bly look like as­sum­ing no sin­gu­lar­ity?

Daniel Kokotajlo16 May 2021 22:10 UTC
116 points
87 comments4 min readLW link1 review

Christen­son’s “Episte­mol­ogy of Disagree­ment: The Good News”

Aidan_Kierans16 May 2021 3:58 UTC
1 point
0 comments5 min readLW link

Hy­poth­e­sis Space Entropy

lsusr14 May 2021 7:21 UTC
17 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Love on Carte­sian Planes

bksilv3r17 May 2021 19:19 UTC
36 points
6 comments23 min readLW link

Func­tional Trade-offs

weathersystems19 May 2021 1:06 UTC
5 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

There is no No Evidence

MalcolmOcean19 May 2021 2:44 UTC
47 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

Re: Fierce Nerds

lsusr19 May 2021 20:18 UTC
34 points
18 comments5 min readLW link
(paulgraham.com)

[Question] Is Ray Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tion ac­cu­racy still be­ing tracked?

CraigMichael20 May 2021 0:06 UTC
9 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Re­sponse to “What does the uni­ver­sal prior ac­tu­ally look like?”

michaelcohen20 May 2021 16:12 UTC
36 points
34 comments18 min readLW link

Did the In­dus­trial Revolu­tion de­crease costs or in­crease qual­ity?

jasoncrawford20 May 2021 21:10 UTC
71 points
5 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

The Vari­a­tional Char­ac­ter­i­za­tion of KL-Diver­gence, Er­ror Catas­tro­phes, and Generalization

Zachary Robertson20 May 2021 20:57 UTC
38 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Knowl­edge is not just map/​ter­ri­tory resemblance

Alex Flint25 May 2021 17:58 UTC
28 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Is (“Chem­i­cal Im­bal­ance” ⇒ De­pres­sion) an ex­am­ple of fake causal­ity?

const LIZARDMAN26 May 2021 22:55 UTC
3 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Pre­dic­tion] What war be­tween the USA and China would look like in 2050

lsusr26 May 2021 6:24 UTC
73 points
54 comments8 min readLW link

Freak­ing blockchains: How do they work?

norswap27 May 2021 16:22 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(norswap.com)

A Re­view and Sum­mary of the Land­mark Forum

reviewer27 May 2021 18:22 UTC
50 points
10 comments14 min readLW link

99% shorter

philh27 May 2021 19:50 UTC
16 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

The Ho­muncu­lus Problem

abramdemski27 May 2021 20:25 UTC
41 points
38 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Aphantasia

Crackatook28 May 2021 1:55 UTC
7 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

(Try­ing To) Study Text­books Effec­tively: A Year of Experimentation

DirectedEvolution28 May 2021 5:51 UTC
63 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

Two Defi­ni­tions of Generalization

ozziegooen29 May 2021 4:20 UTC
33 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Elec­tric heat pumps (Mini-Splits) vs Nat­u­ral gas boilers

Steven Byrnes30 May 2021 15:51 UTC
14 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

How count­ing neu­trons ex­plains nu­clear waste

jasoncrawford30 May 2021 18:10 UTC
92 points
11 comments14 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Po­modoros worked dur­ing a day: an anal­y­sis of Alex’s data

Derek M. Jones31 May 2021 13:27 UTC
5 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(shape-of-code.coding-guidelines.com)

Paper Re­view: Math­e­mat­i­cal Truth

Alex Hollow30 May 2021 20:25 UTC
5 points
14 comments3 min readLW link
(alexhollow.wordpress.com)

Mega Links Post for Mar-Apr-May 2021

ike31 May 2021 3:47 UTC
13 points
0 comments12 min readLW link
(misinfounderload.substack.com)

Anatomy, dis­eases and ag­ing damage

ChristianKl31 May 2021 14:01 UTC
24 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Net­works of Trust vs Markets

Henrik Karlsson31 May 2021 19:59 UTC
101 points
22 comments5 min readLW link

Power dy­nam­ics as a blind spot or blurry spot in our col­lec­tive world-mod­el­ing, es­pe­cially around AI

Andrew_Critch1 Jun 2021 18:45 UTC
176 points
26 comments6 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2021

NunoSempere1 Jun 2021 15:51 UTC
11 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

April 2021 Gw­ern.net newsletter

gwern3 Jun 2021 15:13 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

SIA is ba­si­cally just Bayesian up­dat­ing on existence

Stuart_Armstrong4 Jun 2021 13:17 UTC
25 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Al­co­hol, health, and the ruth­less logic of the Asian flush

dynomight4 Jun 2021 18:14 UTC
146 points
44 comments1 min readLW link
(dynomight.net)

The un­der­ly­ing model of a morphism

Stuart_Armstrong4 Jun 2021 22:29 UTC
10 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Hy­poth­e­sis: lab mice have more ac­tive trans­posons then wild mice

ChristianKl5 Jun 2021 12:36 UTC
19 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Restora­tion of en­ergy home­osta­sis by SIRT6 ex­tends healthy lifespan

DirectedEvolution5 Jun 2021 21:11 UTC
11 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

An­thropic Para­doxes and Self Refer­ence

dadadarren6 Jun 2021 2:52 UTC
6 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Often, en­e­mies re­ally are in­nately evil.

Andrew Vlahos7 Jun 2021 6:42 UTC
20 points
56 comments5 min readLW link

Re­vis­it­ing shared experiences

bksilv3r7 Jun 2021 11:12 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Big pic­ture of pha­sic dopamine

Steven Byrnes8 Jun 2021 13:07 UTC
59 points
18 comments36 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] Blueprint for Revolution

lsusr7 Jun 2021 18:14 UTC
28 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Sup­ple­ment to “Big pic­ture of pha­sic dopamine”

Steven Byrnes8 Jun 2021 13:08 UTC
13 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] What are the gears of gluten sen­si­tivity?

Gordon Seidoh Worley8 Jun 2021 16:42 UTC
20 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Will out­lets like the NYT be cap­tured by Chi­nese in­fluence and if so, when?

ChristianKl8 Jun 2021 16:31 UTC
20 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Against intelligence

George3d68 Jun 2021 13:03 UTC
12 points
17 comments10 min readLW link
(cerebralab.com)

The Gen­er­al­ized Product Rule

aysajan8 Jun 2021 16:39 UTC
34 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

...and then some­times, for no clear rea­son, they in­nately be­come good.

Andrew Vlahos9 Jun 2021 3:07 UTC
2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Other Con­struc­tions of Gravity

michaelcohen9 Jun 2021 20:06 UTC
4 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Knowl­edge is not just mu­tual information

Alex Flint10 Jun 2021 1:01 UTC
27 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] ML is now au­tomat­ing parts of chip R&D. How big a deal is this?

Daniel Kokotajlo10 Jun 2021 9:51 UTC
45 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

May 2021 Gw­ern.net newsletter

gwern11 Jun 2021 14:13 UTC
31 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

[Question] Does any­one have any Data Sid­e­quests?

abstractapplic11 Jun 2021 23:40 UTC
18 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Self-study ideas for micro-pro­jects in “ab­stract” sub­jects?

DirectedEvolution11 Jun 2021 19:09 UTC
13 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

The Cult Deficit: Anal­y­sis and Speculation

rogersbacon13 Jun 2021 5:33 UTC
11 points
11 comments13 min readLW link

Shall we count the liv­ing or the dead?

Anders_H14 Jun 2021 0:38 UTC
30 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Coron­avirus crash vs history

bfinn14 Jun 2021 10:55 UTC
39 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Dooms­day, Sam­pling As­sump­tions, and Bayes

Yair Halberstadt14 Jun 2021 12:41 UTC
6 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

Avoid News, Part 2: What the Stock Mar­ket Taught Me about News

PeterMcCluskey14 Jun 2021 20:54 UTC
42 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

[Question] Are there any ex­ist­ing open source hu­man evolu­tion mod­els?

ChristianKl14 Jun 2021 17:28 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A Break­down of AI Chip Companies

Tomás B.14 Jun 2021 19:25 UTC
20 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(geohot.github.io)

Knowl­edge is not just digi­tal ab­strac­tion layers

Alex Flint15 Jun 2021 3:49 UTC
18 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

(Another) Us­ing a Me­mory Palace to Me­morize a Textbook

Spencer_Green14 Jun 2021 22:12 UTC
13 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Any­one have ex­pe­rience with metabolic net­work mod­el­ling that would be will­ing to help me out?

CraigMichael14 Jun 2021 22:40 UTC
3 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Can some­one help me un­der­stand the ar­row of time?

Yair Halberstadt15 Jun 2021 17:26 UTC
6 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] If in­stead of giv­ing out div­i­dends, pub­lic com­pa­nies bought to­tal mar­ket in­dex funds, which com­pa­nies would be the biggest?

Mati_Roy15 Jun 2021 17:07 UTC
9 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Un­bundling Hu­mans, or, Un­bundling Hu­man Creation.

Sajith Pai16 Jun 2021 0:03 UTC
10 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Vi­su­al­iz­ing in 5 dimensions

TekhneMakre19 Jun 2021 18:15 UTC
16 points
14 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Ques­tions about mul­ti­vi­tam­ins, es­pe­cially manganese

ryan_greenblatt19 Jun 2021 16:09 UTC
6 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Four Com­po­nents of Au­dac­ity

lsusr21 Jun 2021 4:49 UTC
24 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

The home­work as­sign­ment in­cen­tives, and why it’s now so extreme

Andrew Vlahos22 Jun 2021 4:19 UTC
22 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Is there work look­ing at the im­pli­ca­tions of many wor­lds QM for ex­is­ten­tial risk?

Quintin Pope22 Jun 2021 6:06 UTC
−5 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

The Point of Trade

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Jun 2021 17:56 UTC
159 points
78 comments4 min readLW link1 review

Hard­ware for Trans­for­ma­tive AI

ViktorThink22 Jun 2021 18:13 UTC
17 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Fre­quent ar­gu­ments about alignment

John Schulman23 Jun 2021 0:46 UTC
95 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

In­ter­nal In­for­ma­tion Cascades

JenniferRM25 Jun 2021 16:35 UTC
42 points
8 comments10 min readLW link

Cliffnotes to Craft of Re­search parts I, II, and III

Quinn26 Jun 2021 14:00 UTC
7 points
1 comment17 min readLW link

Sam Alt­man and Ezra Klein on the AI Revolution

Zack_M_Davis27 Jun 2021 4:53 UTC
38 points
17 comments1 min readLW link
(www.nytimes.com)

The Un­ex­pected Hang­ing Paradox

Chris_Leong27 Jun 2021 6:17 UTC
16 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Try­ing to ap­prox­i­mate Statis­ti­cal Models as Scor­ing Tables

Jsevillamol29 Jun 2021 17:20 UTC
18 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

Causes of a Debt Cri­sis—Economic

Connor_Flexman1 Jul 2021 22:46 UTC
39 points
11 comments8 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2021

NunoSempere1 Jul 2021 21:35 UTC
13 points
2 comments14 min readLW link

Con­fu­sions re: Higher-Level Game Theory

Diffractor2 Jul 2021 3:15 UTC
38 points
5 comments9 min readLW link

Mus­ing on the Many Wor­lds Hypothesis

David Gross5 Jul 2021 19:38 UTC
26 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

In-group loy­alty is so­cial cement

David Hugh-Jones6 Jul 2021 9:57 UTC
19 points
10 comments3 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

[Question] Should gov­ern­ment set in­ter­est rates?

yhoiseth6 Jul 2021 13:57 UTC
1 point
8 comments1 min readLW link

In­tel­li­gence with­out Consciousness

Andrew Vlahos7 Jul 2021 5:27 UTC
13 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Agency and the un­re­li­able au­tonomous car

Alex Flint7 Jul 2021 14:58 UTC
29 points
24 comments10 min readLW link

An­throp­ics in in­finite universes

Stuart_Armstrong8 Jul 2021 6:56 UTC
12 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

The SIA pop­u­la­tion up­date can be sur­pris­ingly small

Stuart_Armstrong8 Jul 2021 10:45 UTC
47 points
11 comments10 min readLW link

In­ter­mit­tent Distil­la­tions #4: Semi­con­duc­tors, Eco­nomics, In­tel­li­gence, and Tech­nolog­i­cal Progress.

Mark Xu8 Jul 2021 22:14 UTC
81 points
9 comments10 min readLW link

The news at­ten­tion span

damiensnyder9 Jul 2021 1:44 UTC
13 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(www.damiensnyder.com)

Im­prov­ing cap­i­tal gains taxes

paulfchristiano9 Jul 2021 5:20 UTC
58 points
38 comments3 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

Gen­er­al­ised mod­els: im­perfect mor­phisms and in­for­ma­tional entropy

Stuart_Armstrong9 Jul 2021 17:35 UTC
9 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Order Without Law

philh10 Jul 2021 21:50 UTC
64 points
5 comments49 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Win­ston Churchill, fu­tur­ist and EA

jasoncrawford12 Jul 2021 2:07 UTC
66 points
11 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Ty­pol­ogy of blog posts that don’t always add any­thing clear and insightful

KatjaGrace13 Jul 2021 1:40 UTC
49 points
3 comments9 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

The Ad­di­tive Sum­mary Equation

johnswentworth13 Jul 2021 18:23 UTC
11 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Epony­mous Laws Part 3: Mis­cel­la­neous

rogersbacon13 Jul 2021 19:56 UTC
4 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

CGP Grey on the difficulty of know­ing what’s true [au­dio]

DanielFilan13 Jul 2021 20:40 UTC
23 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.relay.fm)

Imag­i­nary reen­act­ment to heal trauma – how and when does it work?

Kaj_Sotala13 Jul 2021 22:10 UTC
41 points
2 comments3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Essen­tial­ness of Data

jefftk14 Jul 2021 3:40 UTC
15 points
21 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

La­fayette: traf­fic vessels

KatjaGrace15 Jul 2021 1:00 UTC
27 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Gen­er­al­iz­ing Koop­man-Pit­man-Darmois

johnswentworth15 Jul 2021 22:33 UTC
54 points
8 comments11 min readLW link

Un­der­ly­ing model of an im­perfect morphism

Stuart_Armstrong16 Jul 2021 13:13 UTC
13 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Fix­ing the ar­bi­trari­ness of game depth

cousin_it17 Jul 2021 12:37 UTC
6 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­is­ing Logic Gates

J Bostock17 Jul 2021 17:25 UTC
6 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Equiv­a­lent of In­for­ma­tion The­ory but for Com­pu­ta­tion?

J Bostock17 Jul 2021 9:38 UTC
5 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are some ex­am­ples from his­tory where a sci­en­tific the­ory pre­dicted a sig­nifi­cant ex­per­i­men­tal ob­ser­va­tion in ad­vance?

Insub17 Jul 2021 5:39 UTC
8 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

A model of de­ci­sion-mak­ing in the brain (the short ver­sion)

Steven Byrnes18 Jul 2021 14:39 UTC
20 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Any tax­onomies of con­scious ex­pe­rience?

JohnDavidBustard18 Jul 2021 18:28 UTC
7 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Book re­view: The Ex­pla­na­tion of Ideology

PeterMcCluskey20 Jul 2021 3:42 UTC
43 points
10 comments9 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

The Utility Func­tion of a Prepper

Alex Hollow21 Jul 2021 2:26 UTC
4 points
20 comments1 min readLW link
(alexhollow.wordpress.com)

How is low-la­tency pha­sic dopamine so fast?

Steven Byrnes23 Jul 2021 17:43 UTC
31 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Believ­ing vs understanding

Adam Zerner24 Jul 2021 3:39 UTC
15 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] What are some trig­gers that prompt you to do a Fermi es­ti­mate, or to pull up a spread­sheet and make a sim­ple/​rough quan­ti­ta­tive model?

Eli Tyre25 Jul 2021 6:47 UTC
37 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

A Con­tam­i­na­tion The­ory of the Obe­sity Epidemic

Bob Baker25 Jul 2021 2:39 UTC
98 points
45 comments5 min readLW link

Failing safely is the anomaly

Andrew Vlahos25 Jul 2021 4:56 UTC
12 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

The biolog­i­cal in­tel­li­gence explosion

Rob Lucas25 Jul 2021 13:08 UTC
8 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Can I teach my­self sci­en­tific cre­ativity?

DirectedEvolution25 Jul 2021 20:15 UTC
13 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

When writ­ing trig­gers mem­ory reconsolidation

Adam Zerner25 Jul 2021 22:10 UTC
34 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Neu­ro­science things that con­fuse me right now

Steven Byrnes26 Jul 2021 21:01 UTC
15 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] How to bayesian up­date on mul­ti­ple covid tests?

rchplg29 Jul 2021 13:15 UTC
12 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Do we have a term for the is­sue with quan­tify­ing policy effect Scott Alexan­der stum­bled on mul­ti­ple times?

yhoiseth29 Jul 2021 8:45 UTC
11 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Uncer­tainty can De­fuse Log­i­cal Explosions

J Bostock30 Jul 2021 12:36 UTC
11 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion-based-Medicine in­stead of E̵v̵i̵d̵e̵n̵c̵e̵ ̵b̵a̵s̵e̵d̵ ̵M̵e̵d̵i̵c̵i̵n̵e̵ Author­ity-based-Medicine

ChristianKl30 Jul 2021 10:42 UTC
11 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

The World is Con­tin­u­ous, Not Discrete

Anshul Jain31 Jul 2021 2:26 UTC
5 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(www.anshuljain.me)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2021

NunoSempere1 Aug 2021 17:00 UTC
21 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Scien­tific Free­dom by Don Braben

willbobaggins4 Aug 2021 1:38 UTC
12 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] What psy­chol­ogy stud­ies are most im­por­tant to the ra­tio­nal­ist wor­ld­view?

cogitoprime4 Aug 2021 3:53 UTC
16 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

Should doc­tors be neu­tral?

Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) 4 Aug 2021 20:37 UTC
32 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Traps of For­mal­iza­tion in Deconfusion

adamShimi5 Aug 2021 22:40 UTC
24 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions about the state of crypto in ten years

mike_hawke8 Aug 2021 16:18 UTC
5 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The Fu­ture: Where are the Colors and the Sports?

rogersbacon8 Aug 2021 18:55 UTC
82 points
38 comments8 min readLW link

Against “blank­faces”

philh8 Aug 2021 23:00 UTC
102 points
12 comments4 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

[Question] Ques­tion about Test-sets and Bayesian ma­chine learn­ing

Haziq Muhammad9 Aug 2021 17:16 UTC
2 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

The Re­duc­tion­ist Trap

J Bostock9 Aug 2021 17:00 UTC
11 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

A new defi­ni­tion of “op­ti­mizer”

Chantiel9 Aug 2021 13:42 UTC
5 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Dopamine-su­per­vised learn­ing in mam­mals & fruit flies

Steven Byrnes10 Aug 2021 16:13 UTC
16 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

The two-headed bacterium

Malmesbury10 Aug 2021 15:28 UTC
65 points
4 comments7 min readLW link
(www.telescopic-turnip.net)

A Re­sponse to A Con­tam­i­na­tion The­ory of the Obe­sity Epidemic

skot52312 Aug 2021 4:23 UTC
68 points
35 comments10 min readLW link
(goodtosell.substack.com)

Com­bin­ing the best of Ge­or­gian and Har­berger taxes

Yair Halberstadt12 Aug 2021 5:55 UTC
19 points
21 comments10 min readLW link

A deeper look at dox­epin and the FDA

DirectedEvolution13 Aug 2021 18:59 UTC
22 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Coase’s “Na­ture of the Firm” on Polyamory

1a3orn13 Aug 2021 13:15 UTC
92 points
26 comments1 min readLW link

The halt­ing prob­lem is overstated

Yair Halberstadt16 Aug 2021 5:26 UTC
15 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Grav­ity Turn

alkjash16 Aug 2021 19:20 UTC
209 points
20 comments5 min readLW link
(radimentary.wordpress.com)

All Metafore­cast COVID predictions

NunoSempere16 Aug 2021 18:30 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Si­mul­ta­neous Re­dun­dant Research

eg17 Aug 2021 12:17 UTC
4 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

When Pro­gram­mers Don’t Un­der­stand Code, Don’t Blame The User

Adam Zerner18 Aug 2021 19:59 UTC
60 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] De­bate over Cox’s the­o­rem

Haziq Muhammad18 Aug 2021 4:51 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What is Akaike statis­tics?

Haziq Muhammad18 Aug 2021 4:49 UTC
4 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­plor­ing the Land­scape of Scien­tific Minds (Let my Peo­ple Go)

rogersbacon19 Aug 2021 16:21 UTC
34 points
21 comments12 min readLW link

The Death of Be­hav­ioral Economics

habryka22 Aug 2021 22:39 UTC
138 points
23 comments1 min readLW link1 review
(www.thebehavioralscientist.com)

Ran­dal Koene on brain un­der­stand­ing be­fore whole brain emulation

Steven Byrnes23 Aug 2021 20:59 UTC
36 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

We need a new philos­o­phy of progress

jasoncrawford23 Aug 2021 21:31 UTC
64 points
45 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

18 pos­si­ble mean­ings of “I Like Red”

ozziegooen23 Aug 2021 23:25 UTC
29 points
14 comments3 min readLW link

Yet More Mo­dal Combat

Donald Hobson24 Aug 2021 10:32 UTC
10 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Sig­nal­ing Vir­tu­ous Vic­tim­hood as Indi­ca­tors of Dark Triad Personalities

Ben Smith26 Aug 2021 19:18 UTC
18 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(mlpol.net)

Amy­loid Plaques: Chem­i­cal Streetlight, Med­i­cal Goodhart

J Bostock26 Aug 2021 21:25 UTC
17 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Gödel’s Le­gacy: A game with­out end

Hazard28 Jun 2020 18:50 UTC
39 points
10 comments12 min readLW link

Cog­ni­tive sci­en­tist Joel Chan on meta­science, scal­ing and au­tomat­ing in­no­va­tion, col­lec­tive in­tel­li­gence, and tools for thought.

fowlertm27 Aug 2021 16:33 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

How To Write Quickly While Main­tain­ing Epistemic Rigor

johnswentworth28 Aug 2021 17:52 UTC
368 points
35 comments4 min readLW link2 reviews

The Solow-Swan model of eco­nomic growth

Matthew Barnett29 Aug 2021 18:55 UTC
30 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

A Small Vacation

DanB29 Aug 2021 19:55 UTC
44 points
24 comments8 min readLW link

An­ti­dotes to Num­ber Numbness

Collisteru30 Aug 2021 20:17 UTC
12 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

World War Zero

lsusr31 Aug 2021 7:22 UTC
27 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

The Tele­phone The­o­rem: In­for­ma­tion At A Dis­tance Is Me­di­ated By Deter­minis­tic Constraints

johnswentworth31 Aug 2021 16:50 UTC
86 points
21 comments9 min readLW link

A Lay­man’s Guide to Re­cre­ational Math­e­mat­ics Videos

Sam Enright31 Aug 2021 23:11 UTC
22 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Finite Fac­tored Sets: Applications

Scott Garrabrant31 Aug 2021 21:19 UTC
27 points
1 comment10 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2021

NunoSempere1 Sep 2021 17:01 UTC
20 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Blind Spots in Science and Culture

rogersbacon2 Sep 2021 0:02 UTC
7 points
3 comments15 min readLW link

[Question] Growth of pre­dic­tion mar­kets over time?

Daniel Kokotajlo2 Sep 2021 13:43 UTC
16 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Lak­shmi’s Magic Rope: An In­tu­itive Ex­pla­na­tion of Ra­manu­jan Primes

DirectedEvolution2 Sep 2021 16:36 UTC
16 points
21 comments11 min readLW link

Ad­den­dum to “Amy­loid Plaques: Med­i­cal Good­hart, Chem­i­cal Streetlight”

J Bostock2 Sep 2021 17:42 UTC
10 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

[Question] Fram­ing Practicum: Selec­tion Incentive

aysajan2 Sep 2021 20:26 UTC
12 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Book re­view: Shut Out

PeterMcCluskey3 Sep 2021 19:07 UTC
33 points
8 comments9 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

[Question] Are there any web­sites that col­late use­ful psy­cholog­i­cal study re­sults?

Phoenix Eliot5 Sep 2021 21:45 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Kids Learn by Copying

lsusr5 Sep 2021 23:09 UTC
32 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

A Primer on the Sym­me­try The­ory of Valence

Michael Edward Johnson6 Sep 2021 11:39 UTC
20 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

[Link post] When pool­ing fore­casts, use the ge­o­met­ric mean of odds

Jsevillamol6 Sep 2021 6:45 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

I read “White Frag­ility” so you don’t have to (but maybe you should)

David Gross6 Sep 2021 22:31 UTC
34 points
105 comments7 min readLW link

How to Find a Problem

J Bostock8 Sep 2021 20:05 UTC
8 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

A Tax­on­omy of Research

J Bostock8 Sep 2021 19:30 UTC
5 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Digi­tal Peo­ple FAQ

HoldenKarnofsky13 Sep 2021 15:24 UTC
28 points
14 comments16 min readLW link

Digi­tal Peo­ple Would Be An Even Big­ger Deal

HoldenKarnofsky13 Sep 2021 15:23 UTC
34 points
14 comments13 min readLW link

Film Study for Research

jsteinhardt14 Sep 2021 18:53 UTC
50 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Or­a­cle pre­dic­tions don’t ap­ply to non-ex­is­tent worlds

Chris_Leong15 Sep 2021 9:44 UTC
10 points
25 comments3 min readLW link

Op­ti­miz­ing Mul­ti­ple Im­perfect Filters

johnswentworth15 Sep 2021 22:57 UTC
49 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

“Who’s In Charge? Free Will and the Science of the Brain”

David Gross16 Sep 2021 2:38 UTC
10 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Jit­ters No Ev­i­dence of Stu­pidity in RL

1a3orn16 Sep 2021 22:43 UTC
82 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

How feel­ing more se­cure feels differ­ent than I expected

Kaj_Sotala17 Sep 2021 9:20 UTC
75 points
15 comments3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Re­search speedruns

drossbucket17 Sep 2021 6:54 UTC
40 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Born Again: Dis­con­nected Psy­chol­ogy, Mar­tian Science, and the Order of the Phoenix

rogersbacon17 Sep 2021 14:23 UTC
4 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

Truth + Rea­son = The True Reli­gion?

David Gross17 Sep 2021 22:14 UTC
34 points
2 comments19 min readLW link

[Question] What is the ev­i­dence on the Church-Tur­ing Th­e­sis?

Morpheus19 Sep 2021 11:34 UTC
15 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Where do your eyes go?

alkjash19 Sep 2021 22:43 UTC
238 points
24 comments14 min readLW link
(radimentary.wordpress.com)

David Wolpert on Knowledge

Alex Flint21 Sep 2021 1:54 UTC
33 points
3 comments13 min readLW link

The Effec­tive­ness Of Masks is Limited

Mike Harris21 Sep 2021 17:03 UTC
24 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Three enig­mas at the heart of our reasoning

Alex Flint21 Sep 2021 16:52 UTC
56 points
68 comments9 min readLW link1 review

Ac­ci­den­tal Optimizers

aysajan22 Sep 2021 13:27 UTC
7 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Robin Han­son’s Grabby Aliens model ex­plained—part 1

Writer22 Sep 2021 18:51 UTC
72 points
34 comments8 min readLW link1 review
(youtu.be)

Shared Frames Are Cap­i­tal In­vest­ments in Coordination

johnswentworth23 Sep 2021 23:24 UTC
84 points
3 comments14 min readLW link

Re­view: Mar­tyr Made Podcast

Elizabeth23 Sep 2021 20:10 UTC
20 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Fore­cast­ing Trans­for­ma­tive AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?

HoldenKarnofsky24 Sep 2021 0:46 UTC
17 points
17 comments9 min readLW link

How’s it go­ing with the Univer­sal Cul­tural Takeover? Part I

David Hugh-Jones23 Sep 2021 19:07 UTC
22 points
13 comments8 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

Carte­sian Frames and Fac­tored Sets on ArXiv

Scott Garrabrant24 Sep 2021 4:58 UTC
37 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­pla­na­tions as Hard to Vary Assertions

Alexander24 Sep 2021 11:33 UTC
17 points
24 comments8 min readLW link

How’s it go­ing with the Univer­sal Cul­tural Takeover? Part II

David Hugh-Jones24 Sep 2021 9:37 UTC
22 points
1 comment4 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

My Hyper­mind Aris­ing In­tel­li­gence Fore­casts and Reflections

elifland26 Sep 2021 20:47 UTC
23 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(www.foxy-scout.com)

The Para­dox of Ex­pert Opinion

Emrik26 Sep 2021 21:39 UTC
12 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Does any­one have the refer­ence to the “re­searchers should be spend­ing more time on liter­a­ture re­views” study?

tb_throwaway26 Sep 2021 21:47 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A Con­fused Chemist’s Re­view of AlphaFold 2

J Bostock27 Sep 2021 11:10 UTC
23 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

The In­tense World The­ory of Autism

Steven Byrnes27 Sep 2021 13:23 UTC
89 points
29 comments14 min readLW link

Reach­a­bil­ity De­bates (Are Often In­visi­ble)

J Bostock27 Sep 2021 22:05 UTC
17 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Be­ware Su­perfi­cial Plausibility

Celer28 Sep 2021 3:58 UTC
32 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

Selec­tion The­o­rems: A Pro­gram For Un­der­stand­ing Agents

johnswentworth28 Sep 2021 5:03 UTC
103 points
23 comments6 min readLW link

Take­off Speeds and Discontinuities

30 Sep 2021 13:50 UTC
62 points
1 comment15 min readLW link

[Book re­view] Gödel, Escher, Bach: an in-depth explainer

Sam Marks29 Sep 2021 19:03 UTC
89 points
20 comments23 min readLW link

[Book re­view] Who we are and how we got here

mukashi30 Sep 2021 4:26 UTC
14 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Some Ex­ist­ing Selec­tion Theorems

johnswentworth30 Sep 2021 16:13 UTC
48 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] How can one train philo­soph­i­cal skill?

abramdemski30 Sep 2021 14:56 UTC
30 points
47 comments1 min readLW link

SIA > SSA, part 1: Learn­ing from the fact that you exist

Joe Carlsmith1 Oct 2021 5:43 UTC
41 points
17 comments16 min readLW link

How does fore­cast quan­tity im­pact fore­cast qual­ity on Me­tac­u­lus?

CharlesD1 Oct 2021 19:09 UTC
8 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

What Selec­tion The­o­rems Do We Ex­pect/​Want?

johnswentworth1 Oct 2021 16:03 UTC
57 points
11 comments7 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2021.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2021 17:06 UTC
13 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Con­tra Paul Chris­ti­ano on Sex

George3d61 Oct 2021 11:17 UTC
22 points
19 comments9 min readLW link
(cerebralab.com)

SIA > SSA, part 2: Telekine­sis, refer­ence classes, and other scandals

Joe Carlsmith1 Oct 2021 5:49 UTC
19 points
1 comment35 min readLW link

SIA > SSA, part 3: An aside on bet­ting in anthropics

Joe Carlsmith1 Oct 2021 5:52 UTC
11 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

SIA > SSA, part 4: In defense of the pre­sump­tu­ous philosopher

Joe Carlsmith1 Oct 2021 5:59 UTC
13 points
20 comments22 min readLW link

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion: No Progress on C. el­gans After 10 Years

niconiconi1 Oct 2021 21:44 UTC
185 points
77 comments5 min readLW link

The Si­mu­la­tion Hy­poth­e­sis Un­der­cuts the SIA/​Great Filter Dooms­day Argument

1 Oct 2021 22:23 UTC
45 points
10 comments7 min readLW link

[linkpost] Vi­talik Bu­terin on Nathan Sch­nei­der on the limits of cryp­toe­co­nomics

mike_hawke2 Oct 2021 19:11 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(vitalik.ca)

[Book Re­view] Evolu­tion of Sex

Alex Hollow3 Oct 2021 18:54 UTC
36 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(alexhollow.wordpress.com)

How to build a mind—neu­ro­science edition

Jan3 Oct 2021 21:45 UTC
17 points
7 comments12 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

[Book Re­view] “I Con­tain Mul­ti­tudes” by Ed Yong

J Bostock4 Oct 2021 19:29 UTC
10 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

What can we learn from tra­di­tional so­cieties?

mukashi5 Oct 2021 0:24 UTC
18 points
11 comments11 min readLW link

[Question] How do bounded util­ity func­tions work if you are un­cer­tain how close to the bound your util­ity is?

Ghatanathoah6 Oct 2021 21:31 UTC
7 points
26 comments2 min readLW link

What Do GDP Growth Curves Really Mean?

johnswentworth7 Oct 2021 21:58 UTC
195 points
59 comments8 min readLW link

Book sum­mary: Selfish Rea­sons to Have More Kids

Optimization Process7 Oct 2021 20:19 UTC
19 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

Per­cep­tual dex­ter­ity: a case study

[DEACTIVATED] Duncan Sabien7 Oct 2021 22:25 UTC
63 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

(Book Re­view) The Ge­netic Lot­tery: Why DNA Mat­ters for So­cial Equality

Xylitol7 Oct 2021 22:21 UTC
25 points
11 comments17 min readLW link

“Eat­ing Dirt Benefits Kids” is Ba­si­cally Made Up

Elizabeth8 Oct 2021 8:30 UTC
65 points
13 comments3 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Book Re­view: Why Every­one (Else) Is a Hypocrite

PeterMcCluskey9 Oct 2021 3:31 UTC
26 points
7 comments3 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Ap­pren­tice­ship Online

Henrik Karlsson9 Oct 2021 13:50 UTC
48 points
19 comments11 min readLW link
(escapingflatland.substack.com)

Book Re­view: Churchill and Orwell

Sammy Martin9 Oct 2021 19:01 UTC
41 points
5 comments11 min readLW link

Cup-Stack­ing Skills (or, Reflex­ive In­vol­un­tary Men­tal Mo­tions)

[DEACTIVATED] Duncan Sabien11 Oct 2021 7:16 UTC
104 points
35 comments7 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Free Will

Ape in the coat11 Oct 2021 18:41 UTC
28 points
22 comments8 min readLW link

EDT with up­dat­ing dou­ble counts

paulfchristiano12 Oct 2021 4:40 UTC
46 points
10 comments7 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

Book Re­view: Philo­soph­i­cal In­ves­ti­ga­tions by Wittgenstein

Chris_Leong12 Oct 2021 20:14 UTC
30 points
12 comments32 min readLW link

Notes from the book ‘First Three Minutes’ by Steven Weinberg

invertedpassion13 Oct 2021 9:06 UTC
6 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Books Re­view: “Sapi­ens”, “Homo Deus” and “21 Les­sons For The 21st Cen­tury”, by Yu­val Noah Harari

Luca Parodi13 Oct 2021 16:21 UTC
14 points
2 comments16 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

TheRealSlimHippo13 Oct 2021 16:22 UTC
28 points
3 comments17 min readLW link

Book Re­view: The End of Average

Vanilla_cabs14 Oct 2021 1:49 UTC
17 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

Book Re­view: De­nial of Death

PatrickDFarley14 Oct 2021 4:28 UTC
14 points
5 comments37 min readLW link

Con­scious­ness, Free Will and Scien­tific Ob­jec­tivity in Per­spec­tive-Based Reasoning

dadadarren14 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
7 points
25 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Book Re­view: A Pat­tern Lan­guage by Christo­pher Alexander

lincolnquirk15 Oct 2021 1:11 UTC
34 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Fram­ing Practicum: Semistable Equilibrium

DirectedEvolution14 Oct 2021 23:31 UTC
26 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Do you think you are a Boltz­mann brain? If not, why not?

Jack R15 Oct 2021 6:02 UTC
2 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­plain­ing Cap­i­tal­ism Harder

jefftk17 Oct 2021 2:40 UTC
98 points
12 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Ap­plied Math­e­mat­i­cal Logic For The Prac­tic­ing Researcher

Jan17 Oct 2021 20:28 UTC
9 points
9 comments6 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

Ap­plied Math­e­mat­i­cal Logic For The Prac­tic­ing Researcher

Jan17 Oct 2021 20:28 UTC
9 points
9 comments6 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

Quick Look: Alti­tude and Child Development

Elizabeth18 Oct 2021 1:20 UTC
58 points
1 comment3 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Pre­dic­tive Cat­e­gories Make Bad Causal Variables

Hazard18 Oct 2021 15:02 UTC
19 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

Hu­mans are the uni­ver­sal eco­nomic bottleneck

Dach18 Oct 2021 8:32 UTC
24 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

Pri­ori­ti­za­tion Re­search for Ad­vanc­ing Wis­dom and Intelligence

ozziegooen18 Oct 2021 22:28 UTC
48 points
8 comments5 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Book Re­view: ‘Pre­dict­ing the Next Pres­i­dent: The Keys to the White House’

TranscendetalIdealist20 Oct 2021 0:42 UTC
10 points
0 comments15 min readLW link

Mo­ravec’s Para­dox Comes From The Availa­bil­ity Heuristic

james.lucassen20 Oct 2021 6:23 UTC
32 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(jlucassen.com)

Sen­tience, Sapi­ence, Con­scious­ness & Self-Aware­ness: Defin­ing Com­plex Terms

LukeOnline20 Oct 2021 13:48 UTC
8 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Young Scientists

A Ray22 Oct 2021 18:01 UTC
28 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Frank­furt Dec­la­ra­tion on the Cam­bridge Dec­la­ra­tion on Consciousness

Jan24 Oct 2021 9:54 UTC
9 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

P₂B: Plan to P₂B Better

24 Oct 2021 15:21 UTC
33 points
14 comments6 min readLW link

Nanosys­tems are Poorly Abstracted

J Bostock24 Oct 2021 10:44 UTC
24 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Phil Tram­mell on Eco­nomic Growth Un­der Trans­for­ma­tive AI

Michaël Trazzi24 Oct 2021 18:11 UTC
11 points
3 comments54 min readLW link
(youtu.be)

[Question] Orthog­o­nal­ity and the in­creased over­lap of ac­tions with the set of all events that comes with in­creased intelligence

Jay9525 Oct 2021 5:17 UTC
−8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Don’t Use the “God’s-Eye View” in An­thropic Prob­lems.

dadadarren26 Oct 2021 13:47 UTC
6 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

They don’t make ’em like they used to

jasoncrawford27 Oct 2021 19:44 UTC
39 points
87 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Bet­ter and Worse Ways of Stat­ing SIA

dadadarren28 Oct 2021 16:04 UTC
4 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

On the Univer­sal Distribution

Joe Carlsmith29 Oct 2021 17:50 UTC
34 points
4 comments32 min readLW link

Naval Ravikant and Chris Dixon Didn’t Ex­plain Any Web3 Use Cases

Liron29 Oct 2021 21:54 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(medium.com)

[Question] Which of our on­line writ­ings was used to train GPT-3?

Mati_Roy30 Oct 2021 21:52 UTC
9 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Great-Filter Hard-Step Math, Ex­plained Intuitively

Daniel_Eth1 Nov 2021 23:45 UTC
26 points
7 comments16 min readLW link

2020 PhilPapers Sur­vey Results

Rob Bensinger2 Nov 2021 5:00 UTC
58 points
50 comments12 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2021.

NunoSempere2 Nov 2021 14:07 UTC
22 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

The Opt-Out Clause

Raymond D3 Nov 2021 22:02 UTC
36 points
54 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Are there any es­says on what scares us? A study of fear, so-to-speak.

sunokthinks4 Nov 2021 21:12 UTC
−2 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Some Re­marks on Reg­u­la­tor The­o­rems No One Asked For

Zachary Robertson5 Nov 2021 19:33 UTC
19 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Con­cen­tra­tion of Force

[DEACTIVATED] Duncan Sabien6 Nov 2021 8:20 UTC
206 points
21 comments12 min readLW link

You Don’t Need An­throp­ics To Do Science

dadadarren7 Nov 2021 15:07 UTC
0 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

[Question] How much of the sup­ply-chain is­sues are due to mon­e­tary policy?

ChristianKl7 Nov 2021 21:21 UTC
11 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­cerpts from Veyne’s “Did the Greeks Believe in Their Myths?”

Rob Bensinger8 Nov 2021 20:23 UTC
24 points
1 comment16 min readLW link

Where did the 5 micron num­ber come from? Nowhere good. [Wired.com]

Elizabeth9 Nov 2021 7:14 UTC
99 points
6 comments1 min readLW link
(www.wired.com)

Re­lax­ation-Based Search, From Every­day Life To Un­fa­mil­iar Territory

johnswentworth10 Nov 2021 21:47 UTC
57 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

AGI is at least as far away as Nu­clear Fu­sion.

Logan Zoellner11 Nov 2021 21:33 UTC
0 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Preprint is out! 100,000 lu­mens to treat sea­sonal af­fec­tive disorder

Fabienne12 Nov 2021 17:59 UTC
156 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Aver­age prob­a­bil­ities, not log odds

AlexMennen12 Nov 2021 21:39 UTC
20 points
20 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Is Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory still an ac­tive area of re­search?

Grant Demaree13 Nov 2021 0:30 UTC
5 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Tele­vised sports ex­ist to gam­ble with testos­terone lev­els us­ing pre­dic­tion skill

Lucent14 Nov 2021 18:24 UTC
22 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

A phar­ma­ceu­ti­cal stock pric­ing mystery

DirectedEvolution14 Nov 2021 1:19 UTC
14 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Re: At­tempted Gears Anal­y­sis of AGI In­ter­ven­tion Dis­cus­sion With Eliezer

lsusr15 Nov 2021 10:02 UTC
20 points
8 comments15 min readLW link

The po­etry of progress

jasoncrawford15 Nov 2021 19:24 UTC
50 points
6 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Stream­ing Science on Twitch

A Ray15 Nov 2021 22:24 UTC
21 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Tak­ing a sim­plified model

dominicq16 Nov 2021 22:21 UTC
9 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Sasha Chapin on bad so­cial norms in ra­tio­nal­ity/​EA

Kaj_Sotala17 Nov 2021 9:43 UTC
47 points
22 comments5 min readLW link
(sashachapin.substack.com)

Fore­cast­ing: Zeroth and First Order

jsteinhardt18 Nov 2021 1:30 UTC
33 points
6 comments5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

[Question] Which booster shot to get and when?

NormanPerlmutter19 Nov 2021 8:52 UTC
22 points
17 comments2 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] “Sorceror’s Ap­pren­tice” by Tahir Shah

lsusr20 Nov 2021 11:29 UTC
87 points
11 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Do fac­tored sets elu­ci­date any­thing about how to up­date ev­ery­day be­liefs?

TekhneMakre22 Nov 2021 6:51 UTC
5 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

In­te­grat­ing Three Models of (Hu­man) Cognition

jbkjr23 Nov 2021 1:06 UTC
29 points
4 comments32 min readLW link

Laplace’s rule of succession

Ege Erdil23 Nov 2021 15:48 UTC
47 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

[Linkpost] Danger of mo­ti­va­tio­ge­n­e­sis in in­ter­dis­ci­plinary work

particlemania25 Nov 2021 0:13 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Economist Irene Ng on Mar­ket de­sign, en­trepreneur­ship, and in­no­va­tion.

fowlertm26 Nov 2021 19:00 UTC
7 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Find­ing the Cen­tral Limit The­o­rem in Bayes’ rule

Maxwell Peterson27 Nov 2021 5:48 UTC
21 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How com­mon are abio­ge­n­e­sis events?

Dach27 Nov 2021 19:40 UTC
3 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Frame Control

Aella27 Nov 2021 22:59 UTC
273 points
270 comments23 min readLW link1 review

The bonds of fam­ily and com­mu­nity: Poverty and cru­elty among Rus­sian peas­ants in the late 19th century

jasoncrawford28 Nov 2021 17:22 UTC
111 points
34 comments15 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Ap­par­ently win­ning by the bias of your opponents

tailcalled28 Nov 2021 13:20 UTC
18 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Should PAXLOVID be given pre­ven­tively?

ChristianKl27 Nov 2021 16:51 UTC
11 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

An­throp­ics and the Univer­sal Distribution

Joe Carlsmith28 Nov 2021 20:35 UTC
53 points
11 comments47 min readLW link

Ques­tion/​Is­sue with the 5/​10 Problem

acgt29 Nov 2021 10:45 UTC
6 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Self-study­ing to de­velop an in­side-view model of AI al­ign­ment; co-studiers wel­come!

Vael Gates30 Nov 2021 9:25 UTC
13 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

My take on higher-or­der game theory

Nisan30 Nov 2021 5:56 UTC
38 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Ma­chine Agents, Hy­brid Su­per­in­tel­li­gences, and The Loss of Hu­man Con­trol (Chap­ter 1)

Justin Bullock30 Nov 2021 17:35 UTC
4 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

In­fra-Bayesian phys­i­cal­ism: proofs part II

Vanessa Kosoy30 Nov 2021 22:27 UTC
9 points
0 comments25 min readLW link

In­fra-Bayesian phys­i­cal­ism: proofs part I

Vanessa Kosoy30 Nov 2021 22:26 UTC
9 points
0 comments22 min readLW link

[Question] Are ex­pla­na­tions that ex­plain more phe­nom­ena always more un­likely than nar­rower ver­sions?

FinalFormal21 Dec 2021 18:34 UTC
3 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Hy­pothe­ses about Find­ing Knowl­edge and One-Shot Causal Entanglements

J Bostock1 Dec 2021 17:01 UTC
16 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2021

NunoSempere2 Dec 2021 21:44 UTC
18 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Se­cond-or­der se­lec­tion against the immortal

Malmesbury3 Dec 2021 5:01 UTC
43 points
46 comments6 min readLW link

Im­pli­ca­tions of the Grabby Aliens Model

harsimony6 Dec 2021 18:34 UTC
2 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(harsimony.wordpress.com)

A Frame­work to Ex­plain Bayesian Models

Jsevillamol6 Dec 2021 10:38 UTC
24 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

Anti-cor­re­lated causation

DirectedEvolution6 Dec 2021 4:36 UTC
18 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Declus­ter­ing, reclus­ter­ing, and filling in thingspace

Stuart_Armstrong6 Dec 2021 20:53 UTC
16 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Ran­dom­ness in Science

rogersbacon7 Dec 2021 18:17 UTC
19 points
15 comments9 min readLW link

The Last Ques­tions (part 1)

rogersbacon8 Dec 2021 18:09 UTC
4 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

COVID and the holidays

Connor_Flexman8 Dec 2021 23:13 UTC
71 points
31 comments9 min readLW link

The end of Vic­to­rian cul­ture, part I: struc­tural forces

David Hugh-Jones9 Dec 2021 19:25 UTC
22 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

Com­bin­ing Forecasts

jsteinhardt10 Dec 2021 2:10 UTC
10 points
1 comment6 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

There is es­sen­tially one best-val­i­dated the­ory of cog­ni­tion.

abramdemski10 Dec 2021 15:51 UTC
88 points
34 comments3 min readLW link

The Promise and Peril of Finite Sets

davidad10 Dec 2021 12:29 UTC
37 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Nu­clear war anthropics

smountjoy12 Dec 2021 4:54 UTC
11 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Why do gov­ern­ments re­fer to ex­is­ten­tial risks pri­mar­ily in terms of na­tional se­cu­rity?

Evan_Gaensbauer13 Dec 2021 1:05 UTC
3 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 1

Pablo Repetto12 Dec 2021 23:10 UTC
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

[Question] Is “gears-level” just a syn­onym for “mechanis­tic”?

David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)13 Dec 2021 4:11 UTC
48 points
30 comments1 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory Break­down—Per­sonal At­tempt at a Review

Jake Arft-Guatelli14 Dec 2021 0:40 UTC
4 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

Leverage

lsusr15 Dec 2021 5:20 UTC
23 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

More power to you

jasoncrawford15 Dec 2021 23:50 UTC
16 points
14 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Where can one learn deep in­tu­itions about in­for­ma­tion the­ory?

Valentine16 Dec 2021 15:47 UTC
66 points
25 comments2 min readLW link

Omicron Post #7

Zvi16 Dec 2021 17:30 UTC
154 points
41 comments12 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The “Other” Option

jsteinhardt16 Dec 2021 20:20 UTC
24 points
1 comment7 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Viru­lence Management

harsimony16 Dec 2021 19:25 UTC
4 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(harsimony.wordpress.com)

The end of Vic­to­rian cul­ture, part II: peo­ple and history

David Hugh-Jones18 Dec 2021 18:55 UTC
9 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

How the Equiv­a­lent Bet Test Ac­tu­ally Works

Erich_Grunewald18 Dec 2021 11:17 UTC
4 points
1 comment4 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Law of No Evidence

Zvi20 Dec 2021 13:50 UTC
111 points
20 comments4 min readLW link1 review
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Are “non-com­putable func­tions” always hard to solve in prac­tice?

Morpheus20 Dec 2021 16:32 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

A Short Note on My Value Notion

aysajan20 Dec 2021 14:35 UTC
11 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Per­pet­ual Dick­en­sian Poverty?

jefftk21 Dec 2021 13:30 UTC
116 points
18 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Quick Poll: Booster Reactions

Elizabeth21 Dec 2021 7:40 UTC
40 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

On (Not) Read­ing Papers

Jan21 Dec 2021 9:57 UTC
52 points
8 comments7 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

Six Spe­cial­iza­tions Makes You World-Class

lsusr22 Dec 2021 8:03 UTC
52 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

DnD.Sci GURPS Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

J Bostock22 Dec 2021 19:05 UTC
16 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Wor­ld­build­ing ex­er­cise: The High­way­verse.

Yair Halberstadt22 Dec 2021 6:47 UTC
12 points
13 comments11 min readLW link

Pri­ori­tiz­ing Information

jsteinhardt24 Dec 2021 0:00 UTC
15 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Belief-con­di­tional things—things that only ex­ist when you be­lieve in them

Jan25 Dec 2021 10:49 UTC
7 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

My Overview of the AI Align­ment Land­scape: Threat Models

Neel Nanda25 Dec 2021 23:07 UTC
50 points
4 comments28 min readLW link

In­ter­net Liter­acy Atrophy

Elizabeth26 Dec 2021 12:30 UTC
107 points
49 comments3 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

The Debtor’s Revolt

Vaniver26 Dec 2021 19:32 UTC
22 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

On State­less Societies

Martin Sustrik27 Dec 2021 7:28 UTC
52 points
24 comments3 min readLW link

Omicron: My Cur­rent Model

Zvi28 Dec 2021 17:10 UTC
251 points
73 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Omicron Post #10

Zvi28 Dec 2021 18:20 UTC
67 points
18 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Why did Europe con­quer the world?

lsusr28 Dec 2021 12:00 UTC
1 point
48 comments6 min readLW link

More ac­cu­rate mod­els can be worse

tailcalled28 Dec 2021 12:20 UTC
19 points
16 comments3 min readLW link

From Con­sid­er­a­tions to Probabilities

jsteinhardt31 Dec 2021 2:10 UTC
10 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Exegesis

rogersbacon31 Dec 2021 17:48 UTC
9 points
2 comments20 min readLW link
(rogersbacon.substack.com)

D&D.Sci Holi­day Spe­cial: How the Grinch Pes­simized Christmas

aphyer31 Dec 2021 16:23 UTC
35 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

New Year’s Pre­dic­tion Thread (2022)

Daniel Kokotajlo1 Jan 2022 19:49 UTC
13 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Care­ful With Trailing Averages

jefftk1 Jan 2022 16:00 UTC
31 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

$1000 USD prize—Cir­cu­lar Depen­dency of Counterfactuals

Chris_Leong1 Jan 2022 9:43 UTC
37 points
114 comments4 min readLW link

Ge­net­ics: It some­times skips a gen­er­a­tion is a ter­rible ex­pla­na­tion!

Jan Christian Refsgaard1 Jan 2022 15:12 UTC
15 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Fun with bit­strings and bijections

Adam Scherlis2 Jan 2022 5:07 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(adam.scherlis.com)

What is a Coun­ter­fac­tual: An Ele­men­tary In­tro­duc­tion to the Causal Hierarchy

Darmani2 Jan 2022 3:46 UTC
11 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Each refer­ence class has its own end

avturchin2 Jan 2022 15:59 UTC
8 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der 2021 Pre­dic­tions: Mar­ket Prices—Resolution

SimonM2 Jan 2022 11:55 UTC
56 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tu­als from en­sem­bles of peers

David Johnston4 Jan 2022 7:01 UTC
3 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

Causal­ity and de­ter­minism in so­cial sci­ence—An in­ves­ti­ga­tion us­ing Pearl’s causal ladder

tailcalled3 Jan 2022 17:51 UTC
12 points
10 comments9 min readLW link

Some thoughts about an es­ti­ma­tor by Taleb

paladim4 Jan 2022 5:37 UTC
4 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

New­comb’s Prob­lem as an Iter­ated Pri­soner’s Dilemma

Jerdle5 Jan 2022 22:48 UTC
13 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 4

lsusr5 Jan 2022 11:03 UTC
27 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

A Re­ac­tion to Wolf­gang Sch­warz’s “On Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory”

Heighn5 Jan 2022 9:00 UTC
6 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

[Book Re­view]: The Bonobo and the Athe­ist by Frans De Waal

J Bostock5 Jan 2022 22:29 UTC
18 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

The Prob­lem of the Cri­te­rion is NOT an Open Problem

Gordon Seidoh Worley6 Jan 2022 16:31 UTC
5 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Sig­nal­ing isn’t about sig­nal­ing, it’s about Goodhart

Valentine6 Jan 2022 18:49 UTC
57 points
31 comments9 min readLW link

A com­mon mis­con­cep­tion about the evolu­tion of viruses

mukashi6 Jan 2022 10:00 UTC
7 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Re­duc­tion­ism is not the ul­ti­mate tool for causal inference

tailcalled7 Jan 2022 21:51 UTC
11 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

[Question] The best cur­ricu­lum for ev­ery goal

Randomized, Controlled8 Jan 2022 18:47 UTC
22 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] To­tal com­pute available to evolution

redbird9 Jan 2022 3:25 UTC
16 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2021

NunoSempere10 Jan 2022 19:35 UTC
30 points
5 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] Is state a (semi-) ra­tio­nal agent?

Birke10 Jan 2022 19:53 UTC
2 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

No Ab­strac­tion Without a Goal

dkirmani10 Jan 2022 20:24 UTC
27 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

Cri­tiquing Scasper’s Defi­ni­tion of Sub­junc­tive Dependence

Heighn10 Jan 2022 16:22 UTC
6 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

The First Per­son And The Phys­i­cal Person

dadadarren10 Jan 2022 19:47 UTC
13 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

D&D.Sci Holi­day Spe­cial: How the Grinch Pes­simized Christ­mas Eval­u­a­tion & Ruleset

aphyer11 Jan 2022 1:29 UTC
22 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 1

lsusr12 Jan 2022 9:30 UTC
33 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Poli­ti­cal Office for Begin­ners?

Asgård12 Jan 2022 17:27 UTC
36 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 2

Pablo Repetto12 Jan 2022 22:32 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

On the Im­pos­si­bil­ity of In­ter­ac­tion with Si­mu­lated Agents

Walkabout13 Jan 2022 17:50 UTC
−3 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Un­der­stand­ing as hi­er­ar­chi­cal model building

invertedpassion13 Jan 2022 9:28 UTC
5 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

2020 Re­view Article

Vaniver14 Jan 2022 4:58 UTC
74 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Look For Prin­ci­ples Which Will Carry Over To The Next Paradigm

johnswentworth14 Jan 2022 20:22 UTC
158 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Some thoughts on “The Na­ture of Coun­ter­fac­tu­als”

tailcalled16 Jan 2022 18:12 UTC
18 points
10 comments11 min readLW link

A con­nec­tomic study of a petas­cale frag­ment of hu­man cere­bral cortex

PointlessOne17 Jan 2022 8:49 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(vcg.seas.harvard.edu)

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 2

lsusr19 Jan 2022 23:36 UTC
46 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Harry Pot­ter and the Meth­ods of Psy­chomagic | Chap­ter 3: In­tel­li­gence Explosions

Henry Prowbell20 Jan 2022 13:11 UTC
21 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Im­pli­ca­tions of Civ­i­liza­tional Inad­e­quacy (re­view­ing mazes/​simu­lacra/​etc)

Raemon21 Jan 2022 1:45 UTC
91 points
14 comments10 min readLW link

Eval­u­at­ing 2021 ACX Predictions

Zvi25 Jan 2022 18:30 UTC
34 points
11 comments22 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Freudi­anism among the 17th cen­tury Wendat

David Gross26 Jan 2022 18:15 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Disam­biguat­ing the ‘Ob­serv­able Uni­verse’

Sam Enright26 Jan 2022 16:50 UTC
24 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

New­comb’s Lot­tery Problem

Heighn27 Jan 2022 16:28 UTC
1 point
9 comments1 min readLW link

Cop­ing with Undecidability

Morpheus27 Jan 2022 10:31 UTC
6 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 3

lsusr26 Jan 2022 20:56 UTC
34 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Look­ing back at 2021

NunoSempere27 Jan 2022 20:08 UTC
57 points
6 comments9 min readLW link
(forecasting.substack.com)

How A Highly Sen­si­tive Per­son Sees Words

LightStar28 Jan 2022 3:16 UTC
8 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] New­comb’s Grandfather

Yair Halberstadt28 Jan 2022 8:56 UTC
5 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

De­con­fus­ing Deception

J Bostock29 Jan 2022 16:43 UTC
26 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Knowl­edge Lo­cal­iza­tion: Ten­ta­tively Pos­i­tive Re­sults on OCR

J Bostock30 Jan 2022 11:57 UTC
7 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

What do we mean when we say the brain com­putes?

Adam Shai31 Jan 2022 3:33 UTC
3 points
5 comments10 min readLW link

Ca­reer Day: A Short Story

vernamcipher30 Jan 2022 22:22 UTC
12 points
0 comments16 min readLW link
(mflood.substack.com)

Mean­ing of Words—An Ex­er­cise for Ac­tive Thinking

aysajan31 Jan 2022 20:18 UTC
13 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

2022 ACX Pre­dic­tions: Buy/​Sell/​Hold

Zvi1 Feb 2022 20:30 UTC
30 points
2 comments18 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

SIA be­comes SSA in the multiverse

avturchin1 Feb 2022 11:31 UTC
7 points
35 comments5 min readLW link

Im­mune, In a Nutshell

Jsevillamol31 Jan 2022 23:07 UTC
50 points
4 comments17 min readLW link

Con­tra In­finite Ethics, Utility Functions

kyleherndon2 Feb 2022 22:32 UTC
6 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 5

lsusr2 Feb 2022 22:01 UTC
21 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2022

NunoSempere3 Feb 2022 19:22 UTC
17 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Im­pact­ful Fore­cast­ing Prize for fore­cast write­ups on cu­rated Me­tac­u­lus questions

4 Feb 2022 20:06 UTC
36 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

A Quick Look At 20% Time

Elizabeth4 Feb 2022 22:10 UTC
78 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

What is a “philos­o­phy of progress?”

jasoncrawford4 Feb 2022 22:02 UTC
10 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Anti-Parfit’s Hitchhiker

k644 Feb 2022 23:37 UTC
2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Phonol­ogy | Sekko

Zmavli Caimle5 Feb 2022 11:59 UTC
2 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

Con­fi­dence in­ter­vals seem to be rarely use­ful, in and of themselves

anorangicc5 Feb 2022 11:23 UTC
1 point
4 comments3 min readLW link

Com­putabil­ity and Complexity

5 Feb 2022 14:53 UTC
21 points
4 comments11 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

[Question] Pre­dic­tions for 2050?

FinalFormal26 Feb 2022 20:33 UTC
−2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Med­i­ta­tion and Neu­ro­science, some odds and ends

MarkL8 Feb 2022 1:47 UTC
28 points
12 comments10 min readLW link

Defend­ing Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

Heighn8 Feb 2022 14:58 UTC
4 points
10 comments11 min readLW link

Create a pre­dic­tion mar­ket in two min­utes on Man­i­fold Markets

9 Feb 2022 17:36 UTC
46 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets are for Out­comes Beyond Our Control

lsusr9 Feb 2022 9:54 UTC
51 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 6

lsusr9 Feb 2022 8:30 UTC
28 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

An ex­ten­sion of Au­mann’s ap­proach for re­duc­ing game the­ory to bayesian de­ci­sion the­ory to in­clude EDT and UDT like agents

Karl Brisebois9 Feb 2022 4:17 UTC
1 point
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Re­v­erse en­g­ineer­ing of the simulation

jan betley7 Feb 2022 21:36 UTC
1 point
2 comments1 min readLW link

Bet on Rare Un­de­sir­able Out­comes when Seed­ing a Pre­dic­tion Market

lsusr10 Feb 2022 0:20 UTC
33 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Your Ene­mies Can Use Your Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Against You

lsusr10 Feb 2022 10:37 UTC
42 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

The Defeat of Rea­son?

M. Y. Zuo10 Feb 2022 4:29 UTC
4 points
49 comments6 min readLW link

Clar­ify­ing the palata­bil­ity the­ory of obesity

Matthew Barnett10 Feb 2022 19:16 UTC
86 points
19 comments10 min readLW link

Es­cap­ing Locality

L3moncak311 Feb 2022 4:08 UTC
1 point
1 comment1 min readLW link

Does nee­dle anx­iety drive vac­cine hes­i­tancy?

Matthew Barnett11 Feb 2022 19:35 UTC
59 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Our philo­soph­i­cal thought ex­per­i­ments aren’t good enough and we can do better

Dead Hour Canoe11 Feb 2022 16:48 UTC
8 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Th­e­ses on Sleep

guzey11 Feb 2022 12:58 UTC
122 points
102 comments34 min readLW link

No, hu­man life was not a mis­ery un­til the 1950s

David Hugh-Jones11 Feb 2022 10:39 UTC
19 points
34 comments4 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

Chaos and Stability

lsusr12 Feb 2022 10:19 UTC
33 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

An ar­gu­ment against ex­ces­sive con­sump­tion of coffee from 1674

M. Y. Zuo12 Feb 2022 18:39 UTC
7 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Most likely is not likely

Malmesbury12 Feb 2022 17:27 UTC
17 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

If you want to live longer, be­come President

Bezzi11 Feb 2022 23:14 UTC
8 points
10 comments7 min readLW link

The in­no­cent self

Richard_Ngo13 Feb 2022 3:10 UTC
27 points
5 comments3 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

Ab­strac­tions as Re­dun­dant Information

johnswentworth13 Feb 2022 4:17 UTC
62 points
7 comments14 min readLW link

Observation

LoganStrohl19 Feb 2022 18:47 UTC
58 points
24 comments3 min readLW link

In­ter­lude: On Realness

LoganStrohl17 Feb 2022 19:02 UTC
47 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

The Territory

LoganStrohl15 Feb 2022 18:56 UTC
94 points
12 comments5 min readLW link

Whence the sexes?

Richard_Ngo13 Feb 2022 20:40 UTC
61 points
35 comments3 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

Book re­view: The Age of Surveillance Capitalism

Richard_Ngo14 Feb 2022 7:50 UTC
34 points
5 comments4 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

[Question] Fram­ing Practicum: Gen­eral Factor

tailcalled14 Feb 2022 16:35 UTC
20 points
10 comments7 min readLW link

Me­mory de­cay in hu­man brains from op­tions pric­ing theory

Jalex Stark14 Feb 2022 7:52 UTC
14 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Strevens on sci­en­tific explanation

Richard_Ngo14 Feb 2022 8:10 UTC
16 points
5 comments7 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

Some limi­ta­tions of re­duc­tion­ism about epistemology

Richard_Ngo14 Feb 2022 8:50 UTC
18 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

A com­pila­tion of mi­suses of statistics

Younes Kamel14 Feb 2022 21:53 UTC
4 points
11 comments13 min readLW link
(youneskamel.substack.com)

Bazant: An al­ter­nate covid calculator

Elizabeth15 Feb 2022 19:50 UTC
24 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

High­lights from “In­te­gral Spiritu­al­ity”

Gordon Seidoh Worley12 Apr 2019 18:19 UTC
15 points
27 comments24 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 7

lsusr16 Feb 2022 19:10 UTC
14 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

[Question] How to es­ti­mate con­fi­dence in­ter­vals for fermi es­ti­mate?

Sønderjye20 Feb 2022 1:26 UTC
3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Si­mu­la­tion arguments

Joe Carlsmith18 Feb 2022 10:45 UTC
44 points
16 comments65 min readLW link

What The Foucault

adamShimi19 Feb 2022 22:48 UTC
37 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

12 in­ter­est­ing things I learned study­ing the dis­cov­ery of na­ture’s laws

Ben Pace19 Feb 2022 23:39 UTC
246 points
40 comments9 min readLW link

An­ti­cor­re­lated Noise In­jec­tion for Im­proved Generalization

tailcalled20 Feb 2022 10:15 UTC
2 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Break­ing the SIA with an ex­po­nen­tially-Sleep­ing Beauty

0naut20 Feb 2022 8:03 UTC
7 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Prac­ti­tioner: Novice

The Guild of the Rose20 Feb 2022 19:01 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(guildoftherose.org)

Sum­mary/​Re­view/​Quotes of “The WEIRDest Peo­ple in the World” by Joseph Henrich

Torello21 Feb 2022 20:03 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

D&D.SCP: Ano­ma­lous Ac­qui­si­tions Eval­u­a­tion & Ruleset

aphyer22 Feb 2022 18:19 UTC
31 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

But­terfly Ideas

Elizabeth22 Feb 2022 7:40 UTC
120 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Pa­tient Observation

LoganStrohl23 Feb 2022 19:31 UTC
103 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

[Question] Was the K-T event a Great Filter?

Yoreth23 Feb 2022 20:35 UTC
8 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Rus­sia has In­vaded Ukraine

lsusr24 Feb 2022 7:52 UTC
170 points
274 comments3 min readLW link

Naturalism

LoganStrohl24 Feb 2022 19:45 UTC
68 points
21 comments3 min readLW link

Cap­tur­ing Uncer­tainty in Pre­dic­tion Markets

hawkebia24 Feb 2022 17:23 UTC
2 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Cryptoepistemology

davidad24 Feb 2022 20:34 UTC
30 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Ar­tifi­cial Wordcels

Jacob Falkovich24 Feb 2022 21:18 UTC
17 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

My at­ti­tude to­wards death

Richard_Ngo25 Feb 2022 15:20 UTC
62 points
30 comments6 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

[Question] Why would GDP X GDP Per Cap­ita be used as a mea­sure­ment of power? What’s the pur­pose of squar­ing GDP?

dqups125 Feb 2022 2:56 UTC
1 point
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Graphol­ogy posts.

Nocturnal Atavistic27 Feb 2022 20:50 UTC
0 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Mun­dane, sharp, crazy

Nyeogmi28 Feb 2022 20:02 UTC
14 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Con­spir­acy-proof archeology

Malmesbury27 Feb 2022 22:59 UTC
64 points
10 comments6 min readLW link

Seek Mis­takes in the Space Between Math and Reality

aphyer1 Mar 2022 5:58 UTC
29 points
23 comments4 min readLW link

The Wicked Prob­lem Experience

HoldenKarnofsky2 Mar 2022 17:50 UTC
111 points
5 comments9 min readLW link
(www.cold-takes.com)

[Question] Can you help me find this book?

mukashi2 Mar 2022 10:19 UTC
4 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 9

lsusr2 Mar 2022 9:45 UTC
21 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Sum­mit-Seek­ing as Distinct From Mountaineering

Sable2 Mar 2022 10:40 UTC
16 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

The Geo­met­ric Series of 1/​(d+1) is a Frac­tion in Base-d

lsusr3 Mar 2022 5:06 UTC
14 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

How satis­fied should you ex­pect to be with your part­ner?

Vaniver22 Feb 2022 23:27 UTC
84 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

A Warm Up Prob­lem for Yud­kowsky’s New Fiction

Robert Kennedy3 Mar 2022 15:25 UTC
14 points
45 comments1 min readLW link

Re­sid­ing in the mor­tal realm

So8res6 Sep 2015 3:00 UTC
10 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(mindingourway.com)

The Agent

Ideopunk2 Mar 2022 22:43 UTC
13 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Deter­minis­tic Strate­gies Can Be Suboptimal

Robert Kennedy4 Mar 2022 21:09 UTC
4 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2022

NunoSempere5 Mar 2022 19:30 UTC
33 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Pa­tri­cia Hall & The War­lock Curse

Jsevillamol6 Mar 2022 16:32 UTC
14 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Ac­cel­er­ated [Honors] Calculus

lsusr6 Mar 2022 10:34 UTC
31 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

2022 ACX pre­dic­tions: mar­ket prices

Sam Marks6 Mar 2022 6:24 UTC
21 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

You can tell a draw­ing from a painting

alkexr7 Mar 2022 11:45 UTC
77 points
22 comments6 min readLW link

How to Best Use Twitter

Zvi7 Mar 2022 15:40 UTC
61 points
9 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket News/​Ticker?

Raelifin8 Mar 2022 21:44 UTC
13 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Meadow Theory

[DEACTIVATED] Duncan Sabien9 Mar 2022 17:13 UTC
120 points
15 comments16 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Fidelius Curse—Part 10

lsusr9 Mar 2022 19:59 UTC
24 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Best LessWrong posts for un­der­stand­ing sci­en­tific stud­ies.

Sean McAneny10 Mar 2022 13:13 UTC
10 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Treat Ex­am­ples as World-Building

adamShimi10 Mar 2022 15:09 UTC
19 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

What’s the chance a smart Lon­don res­i­dent dies of a Rus­sian nuke in the next month?

DanielFilan10 Mar 2022 19:20 UTC
40 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

Book re­view: The Dawn of Everything

PeterMcCluskey11 Mar 2022 1:56 UTC
24 points
1 comment7 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Al­gorith­mic Mea­sure of Emer­gence v2.0

interstice10 Mar 2022 20:26 UTC
14 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Book re­view of “Mengzi”

Anonymous12 Mar 2022 4:54 UTC
31 points
2 comments12 min readLW link

Deep Dives: My Ad­vice for Pur­su­ing Work in Re­search

scasper11 Mar 2022 17:56 UTC
21 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Why Rome?

Erich_Grunewald12 Mar 2022 11:29 UTC
19 points
7 comments8 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

Game the­ory, sanc­tions, and Ukraine

Dumbledore's Army13 Mar 2022 17:45 UTC
27 points
37 comments3 min readLW link

Whence the de­ter­mi­nant?

Ege Erdil13 Mar 2022 19:38 UTC
23 points
28 comments6 min readLW link

One pos­si­ble ap­proach to de­velop the best pos­si­ble gen­eral learn­ing algorithm

martillopart14 Mar 2022 19:24 UTC
3 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Smok­ing cigarettes in air­planes made the air­planes safer?

CraigMichael15 Mar 2022 17:03 UTC
9 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

I read Ein­stein’s bi­og­ra­phy. Here are 15 quotes that re­veal his philos­o­phy on life.

dmabery15 Mar 2022 18:14 UTC
−7 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Thoughts on Crowd­fund­ing with Re­fund Bonuses

Yoav Ravid16 Mar 2022 16:29 UTC
25 points
15 comments6 min readLW link

[Quote] Why does i show up in Quan­tum Me­chan­ics and other Beau­tiful Math Mysteries

Gunnar_Zarncke16 Mar 2022 11:58 UTC
9 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

War Mode vs. Peace Mode

konstell16 Mar 2022 3:36 UTC
10 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Can you only re­al­ize ob­jects in your mind af­ter they ap­pear?

Cui16 Mar 2022 16:12 UTC
3 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Phase tran­si­tions and AGI

17 Mar 2022 17:22 UTC
44 points
19 comments9 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Cold Takes reader sur­vey—let me know what you want more and less of!

HoldenKarnofsky18 Mar 2022 19:20 UTC
17 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.cold-takes.com)

[Question] Thoughts on the SPIES Fore­cast­ing Method?

Fer32dwt34r3dfsz19 Mar 2022 15:22 UTC
19 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Wargam­ing AGI Development

ryan_b19 Mar 2022 17:59 UTC
36 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What are the best el­e­men­tary math prob­lems you know?

Ege Erdil20 Mar 2022 17:18 UTC
36 points
85 comments1 min readLW link

On Con­text And People

Jan19 Mar 2022 23:38 UTC
7 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

The Dawn of Every­thing: a review

David Hugh-Jones21 Mar 2022 12:53 UTC
32 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

Counter-the­ses on Sleep

Natália21 Mar 2022 23:21 UTC
409 points
130 comments15 min readLW link

Even more cu­rated con­ver­sa­tions with brilli­ant rationalists

spencerg21 Mar 2022 23:49 UTC
57 points
0 comments15 min readLW link

Cir­cu­lar Coun­ter­fac­tu­als “Only that which Hap­pens is Pos­si­ble”

JohnBuridan23 Mar 2022 14:40 UTC
4 points
15 comments9 min readLW link

Fly­wheels of progress

jasoncrawford23 Mar 2022 20:42 UTC
30 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Why Mir­a­cles Should Not Be Used as a Rea­son to Believe in a Religion

Yitz23 Mar 2022 20:53 UTC
−2 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing research

Pablo Repetto23 Mar 2022 20:43 UTC
2 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

In the very near fu­ture the in­ter­net will an­swer all of our ques­tions and that makes me sad

David Gross24 Mar 2022 3:55 UTC
24 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 3/​24/​22: Respite

Zvi24 Mar 2022 15:00 UTC
23 points
4 comments13 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] What if fiat money was cre­ated at a fixed rate and given to gov­ern­ment?

ViktorThink24 Mar 2022 13:02 UTC
3 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Fake Jour­nal Club proposal

gwern25 Mar 2022 14:23 UTC
26 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Les­son Plan: Bi­ases in Quan­tity Estimation

abstractapplic26 Mar 2022 0:23 UTC
9 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Prim­i­tive Per­spec­tives and Sleep­ing Beauty

dadadarren26 Mar 2022 1:55 UTC
16 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

My mis­take about the war in Ukraine

Ege Erdil25 Mar 2022 23:04 UTC
40 points
35 comments3 min readLW link

Is Me­tac­u­lus Slow to Up­date?

SimonM25 Mar 2022 19:44 UTC
73 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Magic, tricks, and high-di­men­sional con­figu­ra­tion spaces

pchvykov26 Mar 2022 19:14 UTC
7 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

A Primer on God, Liber­al­ism and the End of History

Mahdi Complex26 Mar 2022 20:07 UTC
33 points
2 comments14 min readLW link

Beyond Blame Minimization

physicaleconomics27 Mar 2022 0:03 UTC
137 points
47 comments4 min readLW link

Toward a gen­eral struc­ture of eco­nomic explanation

physicaleconomics27 Mar 2022 23:33 UTC
9 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Sums and products

27 Mar 2022 21:57 UTC
23 points
11 comments12 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Beyond Blame Min­i­miza­tion: Thoughts from the comments

physicaleconomics29 Mar 2022 22:28 UTC
25 points
8 comments17 min readLW link

Aban­doned pro­to­type video game teach­ing el­e­men­tary cir­cuit theory

Steven Byrnes30 Mar 2022 20:37 UTC
17 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

No, EDT Did Not Get It Right All Along: Why the Coin Flip Creation Prob­lem Is Irrelevant

Heighn30 Mar 2022 18:41 UTC
6 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

The lure of technocracy

jasoncrawford31 Mar 2022 19:58 UTC
27 points
13 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

The Halt­ing Prob­lem and the Im­pos­si­ble Photocopier

J Bostock31 Mar 2022 18:19 UTC
35 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2222

NunoSempere1 Apr 2022 7:07 UTC
82 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

In­tro to hack­ing with the lambda calculus

L Rudolf L31 Mar 2022 21:51 UTC
9 points
1 comment26 min readLW link
(www.strataoftheworld.com)

Jeff Shain­line thinks that there is too much serendipity in the physics of op­ti­cal/​su­per­con­duct­ing com­put­ing, sug­gest­ing that they were part of the crite­ria of Cos­molog­i­cal Nat­u­ral Selec­tion, which could have some fairly love­craf­tian implications

mako yass1 Apr 2022 7:09 UTC
16 points
3 comments26 min readLW link

Anti-Cor­rup­tion Market

lsusr1 Apr 2022 12:57 UTC
78 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

Anti-Cor­rup­tion Market

lsusr1 Apr 2022 12:57 UTC
78 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

How Does The Fi­nance In­dus­try Gen­er­ate Real Eco­nomic Value?

johnswentworth1 Apr 2022 15:21 UTC
52 points
13 comments6 min readLW link

Kosher Hot Dogs

johnswentworth1 Apr 2022 15:10 UTC
53 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

A Very Math­e­mat­i­cal Ex­pla­na­tion of Derivatives

Heighn1 Apr 2022 14:40 UTC
3 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

To Make Bet­ter Soft­ware, Do What Artists Do

matto1 Apr 2022 18:34 UTC
17 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Op­tional stopping

Ege Erdil2 Apr 2022 13:58 UTC
14 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

Book re­view: Very Im­por­tant People

Richard_Ngo2 Apr 2022 19:00 UTC
102 points
17 comments3 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

Real biosafety is so­cially inconvenient

ChristianKl2 Apr 2022 18:50 UTC
31 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

How I re­peat­edly failed to use To­bit mod­el­ling on cen­sored data

abstractapplic2 Apr 2022 18:10 UTC
14 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

Monthly Linkspost 3/​2022

Keller2 Apr 2022 23:57 UTC
8 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Vari­adic func­tions in Hindley Milner

philh2 Apr 2022 20:00 UTC
10 points
5 comments23 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

A Sum­mary of “Four Thou­sand Weeks” by Oliver Burkeman

Magnus2 Apr 2022 2:17 UTC
8 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Prac­ti­cal use of the Beta dis­tri­bu­tion for data analysis

Maxwell Peterson3 Apr 2022 7:34 UTC
9 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

The dooms­day ar­gu­ment is normal

avturchin3 Apr 2022 15:17 UTC
7 points
45 comments2 min readLW link

How Real Mo­ral Mazes (in Bay Area star­tups)?

Gordon Seidoh Worley3 Apr 2022 18:08 UTC
48 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

PD-al­ikes in two dimensions

philh23 Apr 2022 9:52 UTC
13 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Moloch and the sand­pile catastrophe

Eric Raymond2 Apr 2022 15:35 UTC
111 points
25 comments3 min readLW link

A Word to the Wise is Suffi­cient be­cause the Wise Know So Many Words

lsusr4 Apr 2022 1:08 UTC
30 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

The finger­prints of ide­ol­ogy in science

Malmesbury3 Apr 2022 20:40 UTC
21 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] Best non-text­books on ev­ery subject

Yair Halberstadt4 Apr 2022 11:54 UTC
68 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Why are we so early?

Flaglandbase4 Apr 2022 8:49 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Debt, Sub­mis­sion, and a Tech­ni­cal Defi­ni­tion of Drama

Benquo4 Apr 2022 20:37 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

In­ner Ring as Adversary

Benquo4 Apr 2022 20:36 UTC
39 points
15 comments1 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Lan­guage, Power, and the Cat­e­gor­i­cal Imperative

Benquo4 Apr 2022 20:33 UTC
17 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Dr Fauci as Machi­avel­lian Boddhisattva

Benquo4 Apr 2022 20:38 UTC
35 points
39 comments5 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Civil Law and Poli­ti­cal Drama

Benquo4 Apr 2022 20:32 UTC
19 points
3 comments4 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Why Iraq is so violent

Tim Liptrot5 Apr 2022 5:13 UTC
10 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Case for emer­gency re­sponse teams

5 Apr 2022 12:45 UTC
17 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Are the fun­da­men­tal phys­i­cal con­stants com­putable?

Yair Halberstadt5 Apr 2022 15:05 UTC
15 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Re­sults: Cir­cu­lar Depen­dency of Coun­ter­fac­tu­als Prize

Chris_Leong5 Apr 2022 6:29 UTC
19 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A Solu­tion to the Un­ex­pected Hang­ing Problem

Dawn Drain5 Apr 2022 6:19 UTC
6 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Duels & D.Sci March 2022: Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

aphyer5 Apr 2022 0:21 UTC
37 points
10 comments6 min readLW link

Over-Or­ga­ni­za­tion (Chap­ter 5)

Justin Bullock4 Apr 2022 20:58 UTC
3 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Ukraine Post #9: Again

Zvi5 Apr 2022 19:40 UTC
97 points
37 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2022

NunoSempere5 Apr 2022 20:23 UTC
15 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Pre­dic­tions on when the re­quire­ment for pre-flight COVID test­ing for re­turn­ing cit­i­zen will be dropped?

jmh6 Apr 2022 1:30 UTC
6 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

What I Was Think­ing About Be­fore Alignment

johnswentworth6 Apr 2022 16:08 UTC
77 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

Solv­ing the Brazilian Chil­dren’s Game of 007

Epirito6 Apr 2022 13:03 UTC
3 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Re­quest for beta readers

physicaleconomics6 Apr 2022 5:29 UTC
14 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Distill­ing and ap­proaches to the determinant

AprilSR6 Apr 2022 6:34 UTC
6 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Distill­ing and ap­proaches to the determinant

AprilSR6 Apr 2022 6:34 UTC
6 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

When to use “meta” vs “self-refer­ence”, “re­cur­sive”, etc.

Alex_Altair6 Apr 2022 4:57 UTC
20 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Com­men­su­rable Scien­tific Paradigms; or, com­putable induction

samshap13 Apr 2022 0:01 UTC
14 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Elas­tic­ity of Wheat Sup­ply?

johnswentworth6 Apr 2022 20:20 UTC
26 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Un­der­stand­ing Gödel’s In­com­plete­ness Theorem

Rafael Harth6 Apr 2022 19:31 UTC
12 points
1 comment20 min readLW link

How to In­ter­pret Vi­tamin D Dosage Us­ing Numbers

Benquo6 Apr 2022 19:36 UTC
11 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Notes on the Au­to­bi­og­ra­phy of Mal­colm X

Benquo6 Apr 2022 19:34 UTC
13 points
4 comments3 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Na­ture’s an­swer to the ex­plore/​ex­ploit problem

lizard_brain8 Apr 2022 5:13 UTC
5 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Edge cases don’t in­val­i­date the rule

Adam Selker8 Apr 2022 4:17 UTC
6 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Is Fish­e­rian Ru­n­away Gra­di­ent Hack­ing?

Ryan Kidd10 Apr 2022 13:47 UTC
15 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

A Brief Ex­cur­sion Into Molec­u­lar Neuroscience

Jan10 Apr 2022 17:55 UTC
45 points
8 comments19 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

[Question] Im­pact­ful data sci­ence projects

Just Learning11 Apr 2022 4:27 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Good­hart’s Law Causal Diagrams

11 Apr 2022 13:52 UTC
28 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Is there an equiv­a­lent of the CDF for grad­ing pre­dic­tions?

Optimization Process11 Apr 2022 5:30 UTC
6 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

The Effi­cient LessWrong Hy­poth­e­sis—Stock In­vest­ing Competition

ViktorThink11 Apr 2022 20:43 UTC
30 points
30 comments2 min readLW link

The Amish

PeterMcCluskey12 Apr 2022 2:54 UTC
49 points
5 comments6 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Re­view: Struc­ture and In­ter­pre­ta­tion of Com­puter Programs

L Rudolf L11 Apr 2022 20:27 UTC
14 points
9 comments10 min readLW link
(www.strataoftheworld.com)

Ukraine Post #10: Next Phase

Zvi12 Apr 2022 13:40 UTC
45 points
13 comments14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] What do you think will most prob­a­bly hap­pen to our con­scious­ness when our simu­la­tion ends?

ArtMi12 Apr 2022 8:23 UTC
1 point
6 comments1 min readLW link

Com­mon Knowl­edge is a Cir­cle Game for Toddlers

ryan_b13 Apr 2022 15:24 UTC
56 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Cage of the Language

Martin Sustrik13 Apr 2022 5:20 UTC
51 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Sum­mary: “How to Do Re­search” by OSP’s Red

Pablo Repetto13 Apr 2022 19:46 UTC
9 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Fea­tures that make a re­port es­pe­cially helpful to me

lukeprog14 Apr 2022 1:12 UTC
37 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Covid 4/​14/​22: China Stays the Course

Zvi14 Apr 2022 16:10 UTC
26 points
1 comment7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing Wiki

nikos15 Apr 2022 9:52 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Clem’s Memo

abstractapplic16 Apr 2022 11:59 UTC
96 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­ing Mnosis

Evenflair16 Apr 2022 14:35 UTC
15 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(guildoftherose.org)

Con­scious­ness: A Com­pres­sion-Based Approach

interstice16 Apr 2022 16:40 UTC
12 points
13 comments6 min readLW link

Are defer­ence games a thing?

Daniel Kokotajlo18 Apr 2022 8:57 UTC
32 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

Fuck Your Mir­a­cle Year

rogersbacon17 Apr 2022 16:10 UTC
8 points
15 comments8 min readLW link
(rogersbacon.substack.com)

Limi­ta­tions of Laplace’s rule of succession

Tom Davidson19 Apr 2022 0:27 UTC
26 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Fixed points and free will

Ege Erdil19 Apr 2022 17:18 UTC
30 points
35 comments4 min readLW link

Is growth lin­ear, not ex­po­nen­tial?

jasoncrawford20 Apr 2022 18:46 UTC
28 points
9 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

How to place a bet on the end of the world

DirectedEvolution20 Apr 2022 18:24 UTC
26 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

If ev­ery­thing is ge­netic, then noth­ing is ge­netic—Un­der­stand­ing the phe­no­typic null hypothesis

tailcalled20 Apr 2022 16:25 UTC
16 points
4 comments8 min readLW link

Covid 4/​21/​22: Var­i­ants Work­ing Overtime

Zvi21 Apr 2022 15:10 UTC
40 points
19 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Pr­ereg­is­tra­tion: Air Con­di­tioner Test

johnswentworth21 Apr 2022 19:48 UTC
109 points
64 comments9 min readLW link

Un­der­stand­ing the Merg­ing of Opinions with In­creas­ing In­for­ma­tion theorem

ViktoriaMalyasova21 Apr 2022 14:13 UTC
13 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Are smart peo­ple’s per­sonal ex­pe­riences bi­ased against gen­eral in­tel­li­gence?

tailcalled21 Apr 2022 19:25 UTC
100 points
43 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] (When) do high-di­men­sional spaces have lin­ear paths down to lo­cal min­ima?

Thomas Kwa22 Apr 2022 15:35 UTC
12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Should I buy roofies from the dark­net?

Malmesbury22 Apr 2022 15:40 UTC
11 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

In­fra-Topology

Diffractor22 Apr 2022 2:10 UTC
35 points
1 comment17 min readLW link

Why “progress stud­ies” is interdisciplinary

jasoncrawford22 Apr 2022 21:58 UTC
12 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Re­port like­li­hood ratios

Ege Erdil23 Apr 2022 17:10 UTC
80 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

The Con­sis­tency Mystery

Flaglandbase23 Apr 2022 8:05 UTC
−2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Any­one Fa­mil­iar with Ground News?

jmh24 Apr 2022 12:46 UTC
2 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

In­tu­itions about solv­ing hard problems

Richard_Ngo25 Apr 2022 15:29 UTC
92 points
23 comments6 min readLW link

Why pes­simism sounds smart

jasoncrawford25 Apr 2022 20:10 UTC
74 points
15 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Con­ti­nen­tal Philos­o­phy as Un­der­grad­u­ate Mathematics

Jan26 Apr 2022 8:05 UTC
13 points
3 comments9 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

[Link] Ev­i­dence of Fabri­cated Data in a Vi­tamin C trial by Paul E Marik et al in CHEST

Kenny27 Apr 2022 6:48 UTC
6 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

A Parable Of Explainability

George3d628 Apr 2022 16:46 UTC
10 points
5 comments5 min readLW link
(www.epistem.ink)

Dis­cus­sion on Thomas Philip­pon’s pa­per on TFP growth be­ing linear

Arjun Yadav30 Apr 2022 14:25 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

[Question] How good is spend­ing?

tryactions30 Apr 2022 7:27 UTC
5 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Nar­ra­tive Syncing

AnnaSalamon1 May 2022 1:48 UTC
117 points
46 comments7 min readLW link

How to be skep­ti­cal about med­i­ta­tion/​Buddhism

Viliam1 May 2022 10:30 UTC
69 points
39 comments2 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] “Heart of Dark­ness” by Joseph Conrad

lsusr1 May 2022 17:02 UTC
−10 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How con­fi­dent are we that there are no Ex­tremely Ob­vi­ous Aliens?

Logan Zoellner1 May 2022 10:59 UTC
56 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

[Linkpost] A con­cep­tual frame­work for consciousness

Gunnar_Zarncke2 May 2022 1:05 UTC
12 points
17 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What Would It Cost to Build a World-Class Dredg­ing Ves­sel in Amer­ica?

Zvi2 May 2022 17:47 UTC
54 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

My thoughts on nan­otech­nol­ogy strat­egy re­search as an EA cause area

Ben_Snodin2 May 2022 17:57 UTC
32 points
0 comments42 min readLW link

[Question] What would be the im­pact of cheap en­ergy and stor­age?

Yair Halberstadt3 May 2022 5:20 UTC
5 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Monthly Shorts 4/​2022

Celer3 May 2022 4:10 UTC
8 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(keller.substack.com)

Pre­dict­ing for charity

Austin Chen2 May 2022 22:59 UTC
43 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Steer the Sun?

Shay4 May 2022 3:36 UTC
2 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

What are the best ex­am­ples of catas­trophic re­source short­ages?

jasoncrawford4 May 2022 14:37 UTC
35 points
14 comments5 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Covid 5/​5/​22: A Lack of Care

Zvi5 May 2022 15:10 UTC
37 points
6 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Get­ting GPT-3 to pre­dict Me­tac­u­lus questions

MathiasKB6 May 2022 6:01 UTC
68 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a con­ve­nient way to make “sealed” pre­dic­tions?

Daniel Kokotajlo6 May 2022 23:00 UTC
32 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

D&D.Sci Div­ina­tion: Nine Black Doves

aphyer6 May 2022 23:02 UTC
41 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

Sealed pre­dic­tions thread

Zach Stein-Perlman7 May 2022 18:00 UTC
22 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Al­gorith­mic for­mal­iza­tion of FDT?

shminux8 May 2022 1:36 UTC
12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What does Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory say to do in im­perfect New­comb situ­a­tions?

Daniel_Eth7 May 2022 22:26 UTC
4 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Notes from a con­ver­sa­tion with Ing. Agr. Adri­ana Balzarini

Pablo Repetto8 May 2022 15:56 UTC
5 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

De­mon­strat­ing MWI by in­terfer­ing hu­man simulations

Yair Halberstadt8 May 2022 17:28 UTC
14 points
25 comments2 min readLW link

Ele­men­tary In­fra-Bayesianism

Jan8 May 2022 12:23 UTC
38 points
2 comments7 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

[Question] Long COVID risk: How to main­tain an up to date risk as­sess­ment so we can go back to nor­mal life?

Sameerishere8 May 2022 19:56 UTC
19 points
34 comments1 min readLW link

[Scrib­ble] Bad Rea­sons Be­hind Differ­ent Sys­tems and a Story with No Good Moral

Rana Dexsin9 May 2022 5:21 UTC
9 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Fight­ing in var­i­ous places for a re­ally long time

KatjaGrace11 May 2022 1:50 UTC
29 points
9 comments4 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Costs and benefits of am­nio­cen­te­sis for nor­mal pregnancies

braces13 May 2022 22:47 UTC
13 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

How close to nu­clear war did we get over Cuba?

NathanBarnard13 May 2022 19:58 UTC
13 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

Pre­dict­ing the Elec­tions with Deep Learn­ing—Part 1 - Results

Quentin Chenevier14 May 2022 12:54 UTC
0 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[link] The Lion and the Worm

TsviBT16 May 2022 20:40 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

The Cuban mis­sile crisis: the strate­gic context

NathanBarnard16 May 2022 12:12 UTC
18 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

D&D.Sci Div­ina­tion: Nine Black Doves Eval­u­a­tion & Ruleset

aphyer17 May 2022 0:34 UTC
27 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

I just watched the Open C3 Sub­com­mit­tee Hear­ing on Uniden­ti­fied Ae­rial Phenom­ena (UFOs). Here’s a suc­cinct sum­mary and com­men­tary + some background

mako yass18 May 2022 4:15 UTC
23 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] What’s up with the re­cent mon­key­pox cases?

johnswentworth18 May 2022 22:06 UTC
61 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

For­mula for a Shortage

Zvi19 May 2022 19:30 UTC
54 points
9 comments24 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Be­ware boast­ing about non-ex­is­tent fore­cast­ing track records

Jotto99920 May 2022 19:20 UTC
259 points
110 comments5 min readLW link

The Fu­ture of Nu­clear War

avturchin21 May 2022 7:52 UTC
33 points
1 comment34 min readLW link

An Agent Based Con­scious­ness Model (un­for­tu­nately it’s not com­putable)

Logan Zoellner21 May 2022 23:00 UTC
8 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Wormy the Worm

River Lewis21 May 2022 15:34 UTC
3 points
23 comments5 min readLW link
(heytraveler.substack.com)

On The Spec­trum, On The Guest List

party girl22 May 2022 3:31 UTC
24 points
6 comments1 min readLW link
(onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com)

Philo­soph­i­cal con­sid­er­a­tions of ces­sa­tion of brain activity

clockwork21 May 2022 15:18 UTC
9 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

My Take On Philosophy

UtilityMonster22 May 2022 16:43 UTC
2 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

Bits of Op­ti­miza­tion Can Only Be Lost Over A Distance

johnswentworth23 May 2022 18:55 UTC
26 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

Con­tra As­tral Codex Ten’s “On Sexy In-Laws”

Dalton Mabery23 May 2022 22:53 UTC
1 point
0 comments5 min readLW link

The No Free Lunch the­o­rems and their Razor

Adrià Garriga-alonso24 May 2022 6:40 UTC
47 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

MERV Filters for Covid?

jefftk25 May 2022 1:50 UTC
35 points
11 comments4 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Visi­ble Home­less­ness in SF: A Quick Break­down of Causes

alyssavance25 May 2022 1:40 UTC
197 points
40 comments2 min readLW link

Manda­tory Post About Monkeypox

Zvi24 May 2022 20:00 UTC
54 points
17 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Game The­ory and Part­ner Abuse

arielleplus24 May 2022 20:03 UTC
−10 points
4 comments16 min readLW link

[Question] What’s The Best Place to Look When You Have A Ques­tion About x?

Jalen Lyle-Holmes25 May 2022 13:51 UTC
39 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Re­quest for small text­book recommendations

Alex_Altair25 May 2022 22:19 UTC
11 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

How to get peo­ple to pro­duce more great ex­po­si­tion? Some strate­gies and their assumptions

riceissa25 May 2022 22:30 UTC
26 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Covid 5/​26/​22: I Guess I Should Re­spond To This Week’s Long Covid Study

Zvi26 May 2022 17:30 UTC
46 points
5 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Can growth con­tinue?

jasoncrawford27 May 2022 16:19 UTC
28 points
24 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

On The Spec­trum, On The Guest List: (ii) LAVO

party girl27 May 2022 16:45 UTC
18 points
3 comments18 min readLW link
(onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com)

An aca­demic jour­nal is just a Twit­ter feed

David Hugh-Jones27 May 2022 11:14 UTC
13 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

Grabby An­i­mals: Ob­ser­va­tion-se­lec­tion effects fa­vor the hy­poth­e­sis that UAP are an­i­mals which con­sist of the “field-mat­ter”:

avturchin27 May 2022 9:27 UTC
19 points
15 comments8 min readLW link

De­con­fus­ing Lan­dauer’s Principle

EuanMcLean27 May 2022 17:58 UTC
44 points
12 comments15 min readLW link

New Water Qual­ity x Obe­sity Dataset Available

Elizabeth27 May 2022 19:50 UTC
74 points
14 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

An in­quiry into the thoughts of twenty-five peo­ple in India

KatjaGrace28 May 2022 8:30 UTC
21 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

The Un­bear­able Light­ness of Web Vulnerabilities

aiiixiii29 May 2022 21:13 UTC
29 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.theoreticalstructures.io)

Distributed Decisions

johnswentworth29 May 2022 2:43 UTC
65 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

No­tion tem­plate for per­sonal predictions

Arjun Yadav30 May 2022 17:47 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Ceiling Air Purifier

jefftk30 May 2022 19:20 UTC
69 points
8 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Progress links and tweets, 2022-05-30

jasoncrawford30 May 2022 23:20 UTC
18 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Is there any for­mal ar­gu­ment that cli­mate change needs to more ex­treme weather events?

ChristianKl31 May 2022 9:01 UTC
8 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Any prior work on mu­ti­a­gent dy­nam­ics for con­tin­u­ous dis­tri­bu­tions over agents?

Quintin Pope1 Jun 2022 18:12 UTC
10 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Prob­a­bil­ity that the Pres­i­dent would win elec­tion against a ran­dom adult cit­i­zen?

Daniel Kokotajlo1 Jun 2022 20:38 UTC
15 points
27 comments1 min readLW link

On The Spec­trum, On The Guest List: (iii) Etiquette

party girl3 Jun 2022 18:44 UTC
7 points
1 comment8 min readLW link
(onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com)

[Question] Does quan­tum me­chan­ics pre­dict all the effects of rel­a­tivity ex­cept grav­ity?

EniScien4 Jun 2022 13:52 UTC
4 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

D&D.Sci June 2022: A God­dess Tried To Rein­car­nate Me Into A Fan­tasy World, But I In­sisted On Us­ing Data Science To Select An Op­ti­mal Com­bi­na­tion Of Cheat Skills!

abstractapplic4 Jun 2022 1:28 UTC
37 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

Quick Look: Asymp­tomatic Her­pes Shedding

Elizabeth4 Jun 2022 21:40 UTC
37 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Rein­vent­ing the wheel

jasoncrawford4 Jun 2022 22:39 UTC
78 points
13 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Some ques­tions I’ve been pon­der­ing...

Dalton Mabery5 Jun 2022 4:21 UTC
1 point
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How Does Cog­ni­tive Perfor­mance Trans­late to Real World Ca­pa­bil­ity?

DragonGod7 Jun 2022 17:39 UTC
5 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Stephen Wolfram’s ideas are un­der-appreciated

Kenny7 Jun 2022 20:09 UTC
16 points
50 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Silly On­line Rules

Gunnar_Zarncke8 Jun 2022 20:40 UTC
8 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

The “mind-body vi­cious cy­cle” model of RSI & back pain

Steven Byrnes9 Jun 2022 12:30 UTC
64 points
21 comments12 min readLW link

Book Re­view: How the World Be­came Rich

Davis Kedrosky9 Jun 2022 16:55 UTC
14 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(daviskedrosky.substack.com)

Progress links and tweets, 2022-06-08

jasoncrawford9 Jun 2022 19:13 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Kol­mogorov’s AI Forecast

interstice10 Jun 2022 2:36 UTC
9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

On The Spec­trum, On The Guest List: (v) The Fleur Room

party girl10 Jun 2022 14:50 UTC
8 points
1 comment14 min readLW link
(onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com)

Why the Kal­dor-Hicks crite­rion can be non-transitive

Rupert12 Jun 2022 17:26 UTC
4 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

D&D.Sci June 2022 Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

abstractapplic13 Jun 2022 10:31 UTC
29 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Who said some­thing like “The fact that putting 2 ap­ples next to 2 other ap­ples leads to there be­ing 4 ap­ples there has noth­ing to do with the fact that 2 + 2 = 4”?

hunterglenn13 Jun 2022 22:23 UTC
1 point
2 comments1 min readLW link

Yes, AI re­search will be sub­stan­tially cur­tailed if a lab causes a ma­jor disaster

lc14 Jun 2022 22:17 UTC
96 points
35 comments2 min readLW link

Ge­or­gism, in theory

Stuart_Armstrong15 Jun 2022 15:20 UTC
38 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-06-13

jasoncrawford15 Jun 2022 19:47 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Se­cu­rity anal­y­sis of ‘cloud chem­istry labs’?

Kenny16 Jun 2022 16:06 UTC
6 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a worked ex­am­ple of Ge­or­gian taxes?

Dagon16 Jun 2022 14:07 UTC
8 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

[Link] “The mad­ness of re­duced med­i­cal di­ag­nos­tics” by Dynomight

Kenny16 Jun 2022 19:20 UTC
16 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

BBC Fu­ture cov­ers progress studies

jasoncrawford16 Jun 2022 22:44 UTC
20 points
6 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Fore­cast­ing Fu­sion Power

Daniel Kokotajlo18 Jun 2022 0:04 UTC
18 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(astralcodexten.substack.com)

[Question] Why don’t we think we’re in the sim­plest uni­verse with in­tel­li­gent life?

ADifferentAnonymous18 Jun 2022 3:05 UTC
29 points
32 comments1 min readLW link

To what ex­tent have ideas and sci­en­tific dis­cov­er­ies got­ten harder to find?

lsusr18 Jun 2022 7:15 UTC
32 points
10 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] What’s the in­for­ma­tion value of gov­ern­ment hear­ings?

Kenny18 Jun 2022 17:13 UTC
6 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

The Malthu­sian Trap: An Ex­tremely Short Introduction

Davis Kedrosky19 Jun 2022 15:25 UTC
5 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(daviskedrosky.substack.com)

[Linkpost] The im­por­tance of stu­pidity in sci­en­tific research

Pattern19 Jun 2022 5:17 UTC
17 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(journals.biologists.com)

[Linkpost] The im­por­tance of stu­pidity in sci­en­tific research

Pattern19 Jun 2022 5:17 UTC
17 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(journals.biologists.com)

Where I agree and dis­agree with Eliezer

paulfchristiano19 Jun 2022 19:15 UTC
777 points
205 comments20 min readLW link

Is This Thing Sen­tient, Y/​N?

Thane Ruthenis20 Jun 2022 18:37 UTC
6 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-06-20

jasoncrawford21 Jun 2022 17:12 UTC
12 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Sols­tice Movie Re­view: Sum­mer Wars

JohnBuridan22 Jun 2022 1:09 UTC
22 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How do I use caf­feine op­ti­mally?

randomstring22 Jun 2022 17:59 UTC
18 points
31 comments1 min readLW link

Air Con­di­tioner Test Re­sults & Discussion

johnswentworth22 Jun 2022 22:26 UTC
80 points
38 comments6 min readLW link

Worked Ex­am­ples of Shap­ley Values

lalaithion24 Jun 2022 17:13 UTC
68 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

Cracks in the Wall, Part I: The Conscious

silo24 Jun 2022 18:29 UTC
−3 points
28 comments12 min readLW link
(stephenfoster.substack.com)

[Link] Child­care : what the sci­ence says

Gunnar_Zarncke24 Jun 2022 21:45 UTC
45 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(criticalscience.medium.com)

Iden­ti­fi­ca­tion of Nat­u­ral Modularity

Stephen Fowler25 Jun 2022 15:05 UTC
15 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Quick Sum­maries of Two Papers on Kant and Game Theory

Erich_Grunewald25 Jun 2022 10:25 UTC
8 points
2 comments4 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

[Question] How “should” coun­ter­fac­tual pre­dic­tion mar­kets work?

eapi25 Jun 2022 17:44 UTC
9 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

My cur­rent take on In­ter­nal Fam­ily Sys­tems “parts”

Kaj_Sotala26 Jun 2022 17:40 UTC
67 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Dust The­ory vs Ruliad

svemirski26 Jun 2022 16:08 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

How do poor coun­tries get rich: some the­o­ries

NathanBarnard26 Jun 2022 10:41 UTC
8 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

What Diet Books Don’t Teach: A book re­view and a re­quest for more reading

Lone Pine28 Jun 2022 12:27 UTC
22 points
34 comments4 min readLW link

Reflec­tions on Liv­ing in “Guess Cul­ture”

Dalton Mabery28 Jun 2022 21:00 UTC
13 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Limits to Legibility

Jan_Kulveit29 Jun 2022 17:42 UTC
102 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

The table of differ­ent sam­pling as­sump­tions in anthropics

avturchin29 Jun 2022 10:41 UTC
26 points
3 comments12 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-06-29

jasoncrawford29 Jun 2022 21:33 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Covid 6/​30/​22: Vac­cine Up­date Update

Zvi30 Jun 2022 14:00 UTC
32 points
6 comments12 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The Track Record of Fu­tur­ists Seems … Fine

HoldenKarnofsky30 Jun 2022 19:40 UTC
91 points
23 comments12 min readLW link
(www.cold-takes.com)

On viewquakes

Dalton Mabery30 Jun 2022 20:08 UTC
6 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How to Nav­i­gate Eval­u­at­ing Poli­ti­cized Re­search?

Davis_Kingsley1 Jul 2022 5:59 UTC
11 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

One is (al­most) nor­mal in base π

Adam Scherlis1 Jul 2022 4:05 UTC
14 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(adam.scherlis.com)

Defin­ing Op­ti­miza­tion in a Deeper Way Part 1

J Bostock1 Jul 2022 14:03 UTC
7 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Ex­am­ples of prac­ti­cal im­pli­ca­tions of Judea Pearl’s Causal­ity work

ChristianKl1 Jul 2022 20:58 UTC
23 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Paper: Fore­cast­ing world events with neu­ral nets

1 Jul 2022 19:40 UTC
39 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Disarm­ing status

sano1 Jul 2022 20:00 UTC
−4 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

Liter­a­ture recom­men­da­tions July 2022

ChristianKl2 Jul 2022 9:14 UTC
16 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Na­ture ab­hors an im­mutable repli­ca­tor… usually

MSRayne3 Jul 2022 15:08 UTC
26 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

SOMA—A story about Consciousness

Johannes C. Mayer3 Jul 2022 4:46 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

Evolu­tion Doesn’t Have Feelings

UtilityMonster3 Jul 2022 17:13 UTC
−1 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Five routes of ac­cess to sci­en­tific literature

DirectedEvolution3 Jul 2022 20:53 UTC
13 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

Toni Kurz and the In­san­ity of Climb­ing Mountains

GeneSmith3 Jul 2022 20:51 UTC
219 points
51 comments10 min readLW link

As­sorted thoughts about ab­strac­tion

Adam Zerner5 Jul 2022 6:40 UTC
16 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

How to de­stroy the uni­verse with a hypercomputer

Trevor Cappallo5 Jul 2022 19:05 UTC
−3 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Im­pe­rial Rus­sia was do­ing fine with­out the Soviets

Davis Kedrosky5 Jul 2022 22:24 UTC
6 points
3 comments14 min readLW link
(daviskedrosky.substack.com)

Un­der­stand­ing up­date­less­ness in the con­text of EDT and CDT

Sylvester Kollin5 Jul 2022 23:05 UTC
25 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Wealth as a source of tech­nolog­i­cal stag­na­tion?

alyssavance7 Jul 2022 5:46 UTC
21 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

[Question] What one pa­per would you show to some­one to get them ex­cited about your field?

oh543217 Jul 2022 2:55 UTC
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

​Some Ad­ven­tures of a Cu­ri­ous Richard Feynman

Dalton Mabery6 Jul 2022 23:11 UTC
10 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

MATS Models

johnswentworth9 Jul 2022 0:14 UTC
84 points
5 comments16 min readLW link

Us­ing Ngram to es­ti­mate de­pres­sion prevalence over time

David Gross9 Jul 2022 14:57 UTC
10 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(www.pnas.org)

Ars D&D.sci: Mys­ter­ies of Mana

aphyer9 Jul 2022 12:19 UTC
34 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Neal Stephen­son’s “Ter­mi­na­tion Shock”

Tyler Simmons12 Jul 2022 0:07 UTC
13 points
0 comments30 min readLW link
(www.words-and-dirt.com)

Defin­ing Op­ti­miza­tion in a Deeper Way Part 2

J Bostock11 Jul 2022 20:29 UTC
7 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Rainmaking

WalterL12 Jul 2022 0:42 UTC
25 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

Progress links and tweets, 2022-07-12

jasoncrawford12 Jul 2022 15:30 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] How could the uni­verse be in­finitely large?

amarai13 Jul 2022 13:45 UTC
0 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

A re­view of Nate Hilger’s The Par­ent Trap

David Hugh-Jones15 Jul 2022 9:30 UTC
15 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

High­lights from the mem­o­irs of Van­nevar Bush

jasoncrawford15 Jul 2022 18:08 UTC
10 points
0 comments13 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

A time-in­var­i­ant ver­sion of Laplace’s rule

15 Jul 2022 19:28 UTC
63 points
5 comments17 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

Ma­chine Learn­ing Model Sizes and the Pa­ram­e­ter Gap [abridged]

Pablo Villalobos18 Jul 2022 16:51 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

How the ---- did Feyn­man Get Here !?

George3d618 Jul 2022 9:43 UTC
4 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(www.epistem.ink)

Without spe­cific coun­ter­mea­sures, the eas­iest path to trans­for­ma­tive AI likely leads to AI takeover

Ajeya Cotra18 Jul 2022 19:06 UTC
310 points
89 comments84 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-07-19

jasoncrawford19 Jul 2022 20:50 UTC
11 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Per­sonal fore­cast­ing ret­ro­spec­tive: 2020-2022

elifland21 Jul 2022 0:07 UTC
31 points
3 comments8 min readLW link
(www.foxy-scout.com)

Defin­ing Op­ti­miza­tion in a Deeper Way Part 3

J Bostock20 Jul 2022 22:06 UTC
8 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Don’t take the or­ga­ni­za­tional chart literally

lc21 Jul 2022 0:56 UTC
44 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

Wy­clif’s Dust: the miss­ing chapter

David Hugh-Jones22 Jul 2022 18:27 UTC
9 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(wyclif.substack.com)

Eat­ing Boogers

George3d623 Jul 2022 11:20 UTC
17 points
5 comments6 min readLW link
(www.epistem.ink)

[Question] Is there any ev­i­dence that hand­wash­ing does any­thing to pre­vent COVID?

mukashi25 Jul 2022 7:34 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

My Bit­coin Th­e­sis @2022 - Part 1

aysajan25 Jul 2022 15:49 UTC
6 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

Pro­tec­tion­ism in One Coun­try: How In­dus­trial Policy Worked in Canada

Davis Kedrosky25 Jul 2022 22:08 UTC
5 points
0 comments16 min readLW link
(daviskedrosky.substack.com)

Tech­noc­racy and the Space Age

jasoncrawford26 Jul 2022 23:14 UTC
24 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

The gen­er­al­ized Sier­pin­ski-Mazurk­iewicz the­o­rem.

Donald Hobson29 Jul 2022 0:12 UTC
11 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Com­par­ing Four Ap­proaches to In­ner Alignment

Lucas Teixeira29 Jul 2022 21:06 UTC
33 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

Drexler’s Nan­otech Forecast

PeterMcCluskey30 Jul 2022 0:45 UTC
26 points
28 comments3 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Let­ter from lead­ing Soviet Aca­demi­ci­ans to party and gov­ern­ment lead­ers of the Soviet Union re­gard­ing signs of de­cline and struc­tural prob­lems of the eco­nomic-poli­ti­cal sys­tem (1970)

M. Y. Zuo1 Aug 2022 22:35 UTC
20 points
10 comments16 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-08-02

jasoncrawford2 Aug 2022 17:03 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

An­nounc­ing Squig­gle: Early Access

ozziegooen3 Aug 2022 19:48 UTC
51 points
7 comments7 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Coun­ter­fac­tu­als are Con­fus­ing be­cause of an On­tolog­i­cal Shift

Chris_Leong5 Aug 2022 19:03 UTC
17 points
35 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt is clos­ing due to CFTC chang­ing its mind

eigen6 Aug 2022 3:34 UTC
20 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus and medians

rossry6 Aug 2022 3:34 UTC
18 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Do meta-memes and meta-an­timemes ex­ist? e.g. ‘The map is not the ter­ri­tory’ is also a map

M. Y. Zuo7 Aug 2022 1:17 UTC
4 points
31 comments1 min readLW link

New­comb­ness of the Din­ing Philoso­phers Problem

Nathan11236 Aug 2022 21:58 UTC
10 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The need for certainty

Thomas McMurtry5 Aug 2022 20:18 UTC
2 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

The les­sons of Xanadu

jasoncrawford7 Aug 2022 17:59 UTC
108 points
20 comments8 min readLW link
(jasoncrawford.org)

Care­ful with Caching

jefftk7 Aug 2022 15:20 UTC
15 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Paper read­ing as a Cargo Cult

jem-mosig7 Aug 2022 7:50 UTC
66 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Are ya win­ning, son?

Nathan11239 Aug 2022 0:06 UTC
14 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

How (not) to choose a re­search project

9 Aug 2022 0:26 UTC
76 points
11 comments7 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-08-09

jasoncrawford9 Aug 2022 17:35 UTC
11 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

An­nounc­ing: Mechanism De­sign for AI Safety—Read­ing Group

Rubi J. Hudson9 Aug 2022 4:21 UTC
17 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

The Medium Is The Bandage

party girl10 Aug 2022 1:45 UTC
11 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

What is es­ti­ma­tional pro­gram­ming? Squig­gle in context

Quinn12 Aug 2022 18:39 UTC
14 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] How to bet against civ­i­liza­tional ad­e­quacy?

Wei Dai12 Aug 2022 23:33 UTC
51 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

An ex­tended rocket al­ign­ment analogy

remember13 Aug 2022 18:22 UTC
25 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

And the Rev­enues Are So Small

Zvi15 Aug 2022 13:00 UTC
19 points
4 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] If a nuke is com­ing to­wards SF Bay can peo­ple bunker in BART tun­nels?

Pee Doom15 Aug 2022 1:56 UTC
15 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Cap­i­tal and in­equal­ity

NathanBarnard15 Aug 2022 17:23 UTC
7 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Covid 8/​11/​22: The End Is Never The End

Zvi11 Aug 2022 16:20 UTC
28 points
11 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Post-mortem?

gwern5 Aug 2022 16:32 UTC
73 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

The longest train­ing run

17 Aug 2022 17:18 UTC
68 points
11 comments9 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

[Question] Could the simu­la­tion ar­gu­ment also ap­ply to dreams?

Nathan112317 Aug 2022 19:55 UTC
4 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Con­crete Ad­vice for Form­ing In­side Views on AI Safety

Neel Nanda17 Aug 2022 22:02 UTC
18 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

What’s up with the bad Meta pro­jects?

Yitz18 Aug 2022 5:34 UTC
41 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-08-17

jasoncrawford17 Aug 2022 21:27 UTC
11 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Covid 8/​18/​22: CDC Ad­mits Mistakes

Zvi18 Aug 2022 14:30 UTC
46 points
8 comments17 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Spoons and My­ofas­cial Trig­ger Points

vitaliya17 Aug 2022 22:54 UTC
5 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Goal-di­rect­ed­ness: rel­a­tivis­ing complexity

Morgan_Rogers18 Aug 2022 9:48 UTC
3 points
0 comments11 min readLW link

How to do the­o­ret­i­cal re­search, a per­sonal perspective

Mark Xu19 Aug 2022 19:41 UTC
84 points
4 comments15 min readLW link

Can You Upload Your Mind & Live For­ever? From Kurzge­sagt—In a Nutshell

Noosphere8919 Aug 2022 19:32 UTC
3 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

Less Threat-Depen­dent Bar­gain­ing Solu­tions?? (3/​2)

Diffractor20 Aug 2022 2:19 UTC
69 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

The Loire Is Not Dry

jefftk20 Aug 2022 13:40 UTC
77 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Vague con­cepts, fam­ily re­sem­blance and cluster prop­er­ties

Q Home20 Aug 2022 10:21 UTC
18 points
8 comments7 min readLW link

Re­view: Amus­ing Our­selves to Death

L Rudolf L20 Aug 2022 21:13 UTC
40 points
5 comments16 min readLW link
(www.strataoftheworld.com)

A First At­tempt to Dis­solve “Is Con­scious­ness Re­ducible?”

DragonGod20 Aug 2022 23:39 UTC
5 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Please (re)ex­plain your per­sonal jargon

Nathan Helm-Burger22 Aug 2022 14:30 UTC
19 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-08-23

jasoncrawford23 Aug 2022 17:30 UTC
7 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Sur­vey advice

KatjaGrace24 Aug 2022 3:10 UTC
92 points
10 comments3 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

The Case Against Digi­tal Sen­tience: A Summary

lucas1124 Aug 2022 17:59 UTC
4 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Con­scious­ness Ac­tu­ally Ex­plained: EC Theory

Zahima24 Aug 2022 22:18 UTC
19 points
69 comments1 min readLW link
(gdoc.pub)

Covid 8/​25/​22: What We Owe

Zvi25 Aug 2022 14:40 UTC
33 points
3 comments19 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

An In­tro­duc­tion to Cur­rent The­o­ries of Consciousness

hohenheim28 Aug 2022 17:55 UTC
59 points
44 comments49 min readLW link

Who or­dered al­ign­ment’s ap­ple?

Eleni Angelou28 Aug 2022 4:05 UTC
6 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

More Clothes Over Time?

jefftk28 Aug 2022 20:30 UTC
30 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Se­quenc­ing Intro

jefftk29 Aug 2022 17:50 UTC
39 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

How much im­pact can any one man have?

GregorDeVillain31 Aug 2022 10:26 UTC
9 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-08-31

jasoncrawford31 Aug 2022 21:54 UTC
13 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Enantiodromia

ChristianKl31 Aug 2022 21:13 UTC
38 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Covid 9/​1/​22: Meet the New Booster

Zvi1 Sep 2022 14:00 UTC
41 points
6 comments14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Why was progress so slow in the past?

jasoncrawford1 Sep 2022 20:26 UTC
53 points
31 comments6 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Monthly Shorts 8/​22

Celer4 Sep 2022 2:30 UTC
3 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(keller.substack.com)

Break­ing New­comb’s Prob­lem with Non-Halt­ing states

Slimepriestess4 Sep 2022 4:01 UTC
16 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

[Ex­plo­ra­tory] What does it mean that an ex­per­i­ment is high bit?

Johannes C. Mayer5 Sep 2022 3:13 UTC
5 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

(Link) I’m Miss­ing a Chunk of My Brain

mukashi5 Sep 2022 2:10 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.nytimes.com)

The Power (and limits?) of Chunking

NicholasKross6 Sep 2022 2:26 UTC
7 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

On oxy­tocin-sen­si­tive neu­rons in au­di­tory cortex

Steven Byrnes6 Sep 2022 12:54 UTC
31 points
6 comments12 min readLW link

Re­jected Early Drafts of New­comb’s Problem

zahmahkibo6 Sep 2022 19:04 UTC
104 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

No, hu­man brains are not (much) more effi­cient than computers

Jesse Hoogland6 Sep 2022 13:53 UTC
19 points
16 comments4 min readLW link
(www.jessehoogland.com)

[Question] In a lack of data, how should you weigh cre­dences in the­o­ret­i­cal physics’s The­o­ries of Every­thing, or TOEs?

Noosphere897 Sep 2022 18:25 UTC
7 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Shröd­inger’s lot­tery or: Why you are go­ing to live forever

Chase Dowdell7 Sep 2022 18:13 UTC
1 point
2 comments4 min readLW link

Covid 9/​8/​22: Booster Boosting

Zvi8 Sep 2022 13:50 UTC
34 points
9 comments24 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Progress links & tweets, 2022-09-08

jasoncrawford8 Sep 2022 20:43 UTC
13 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Un­bounded util­ity func­tions and precommitment

MichaelStJules10 Sep 2022 16:16 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] In fore­cast­ing, how do ac­cu­racy, cal­ibra­tion and re­li­a­bil­ity re­late to each other?

amarai11 Sep 2022 12:04 UTC
3 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Fermi Para­dox: Iron Age Milky Way

Rofel Wodring11 Sep 2022 20:32 UTC
−10 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Log­i­cal coun­ter­fac­tu­als are brit­tle; use conditionals

Sylvester Kollin15 Sep 2022 8:55 UTC
17 points
1 comment16 min readLW link

Con­tem­po­rary Lin­guis­tics: A Per­spec­tive on Re­search and In­for­ma­tion Sharing

Miniman12 Sep 2022 19:02 UTC
1 point
5 comments3 min readLW link

Guessti­mate Al­gorithm for Med­i­cal Research

Elizabeth14 Sep 2022 17:30 UTC
26 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Renor­mal­iza­tion: Why Big­ger is Simpler

tailcalled14 Sep 2022 17:52 UTC
30 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

Progress links and tweets, 2022-09-14

jasoncrawford14 Sep 2022 23:21 UTC
9 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Se­quenc­ing In­tro II: Adapters

jefftk15 Sep 2022 3:30 UTC
12 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] What’s the longest a sen­tient ob­server could sur­vive in the Dark Era?

Raemon15 Sep 2022 8:43 UTC
33 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 9/​15/​22: Per­ma­nent Normal

Zvi15 Sep 2022 16:00 UTC
32 points
9 comments20 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

In­tel­li­gence failures and a the­ory of change for forecasting

NathanBarnard15 Sep 2022 15:02 UTC
5 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

D&D.Sci Septem­ber 2022: The Allo­ca­tion Helm

abstractapplic16 Sep 2022 23:10 UTC
31 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

Do bam­boos set them­selves on fire?

Malmesbury19 Sep 2022 15:34 UTC
145 points
13 comments6 min readLW link

Gene drives: why the wait?

Metacelsus19 Sep 2022 23:37 UTC
116 points
53 comments3 min readLW link
(denovo.substack.com)

You Are Not Mea­sur­ing What You Think You Are Measuring

johnswentworth20 Sep 2022 20:04 UTC
308 points
38 comments8 min readLW link

An is­sue with MacAskill’s Ev­i­den­tial­ist’s Wager

Martín Soto21 Sep 2022 22:02 UTC
3 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Fake qual­ities of mind

Kaj_Sotala22 Sep 2022 16:40 UTC
53 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Ukraine Post #12

Zvi22 Sep 2022 14:40 UTC
104 points
3 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Covid 9/​22/​22: The Joe Bi­den Sings

Zvi22 Sep 2022 14:40 UTC
15 points
17 comments24 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Method­olog­i­cal Ther­apy: An Agenda For Tack­ling Re­search Bottlenecks

22 Sep 2022 18:41 UTC
54 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

“Free Will” in a Com­pu­ta­tional Universe

DragonGod22 Sep 2022 21:25 UTC
5 points
6 comments14 min readLW link

Ini­tial Thoughts on Dis­solv­ing “Could­ness”

DragonGod22 Sep 2022 21:23 UTC
6 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Why do som many things break in a 2 el­e­ment set?

Alok Singh23 Sep 2022 6:30 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(alok.github.io)

Am­bi­guity in Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Re­s­olu­tion is Harmful

aphyer26 Sep 2022 16:22 UTC
69 points
17 comments5 min readLW link

Tri­an­gle Opportunity

Alex Beyman26 Sep 2022 20:42 UTC
55 points
10 comments54 min readLW link

Re­view of Ex­am­ine.com’s vi­tamin write-ups

26 Sep 2022 23:40 UTC
58 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

D&D.Sci Septem­ber 2022 Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

abstractapplic26 Sep 2022 22:19 UTC
25 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

A Prince, a Pau­per, Power, Panama

Alok Singh27 Sep 2022 7:10 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(alok.github.io)

FDT is not di­rectly com­pa­rable to CDT and EDT

Sylvester Kollin29 Sep 2022 14:42 UTC
26 points
7 comments11 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-09-28

jasoncrawford28 Sep 2022 20:26 UTC
13 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

A Few Ter­rify­ing Facts About The Russo-Ukrainian War

Pee Doom30 Sep 2022 21:34 UTC
71 points
102 comments3 min readLW link

Are c-sec­tions un­der­rated?

braces1 Oct 2022 20:32 UTC
47 points
12 comments6 min readLW link

The com­pu­ta­tional com­plex­ity of progress

Malmesbury1 Oct 2022 21:50 UTC
18 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

Monthly Shorts 9/​22, and An Es­say in Defense of Technodeterminism

Celer2 Oct 2022 16:10 UTC
10 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(keller.substack.com)

Iver­mectin: Much Less Than You Needed To Know

George3d63 Oct 2022 15:02 UTC
31 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(doyourownresearch.substack.com)

Quick notes on “mir­ror neu­rons”

Steven Byrnes4 Oct 2022 17:39 UTC
31 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Dep­re­cated: Some hu­mans are fit­ness maximizers

Shoshannah Tekofsky4 Oct 2022 19:38 UTC
6 points
22 comments6 min readLW link

Depen­dency Tree For The Devel­op­ment Of Plate Tectonics

Elizabeth5 Oct 2022 22:40 UTC
38 points
3 comments4 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Progress links and tweets, 2022-10-05

jasoncrawford5 Oct 2022 19:24 UTC
9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

A blog post is a very long and com­plex search query to find fas­ci­nat­ing peo­ple and make them route in­ter­est­ing stuff to your inbox

Henrik Karlsson5 Oct 2022 19:07 UTC
75 points
10 comments11 min readLW link
(escapingflatland.substack.com)

Notes on Notes on the Syn­the­sis of Form

Vaniver6 Oct 2022 2:36 UTC
20 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Foot­ball, quan­tum chro­mo­dy­nam­ics, figure skat­ing and statistics

Malmesbury8 Oct 2022 19:46 UTC
8 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

The Balto/​Togo the­ory of sci­en­tific development

Elizabeth9 Oct 2022 18:30 UTC
64 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Clean­ing a Spoon is Complex

jefftk9 Oct 2022 1:10 UTC
20 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Wanna bet?

ThomasJ9 Oct 2022 21:26 UTC
4 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

On the Beauty of Na­ture, and the Na­ture of Beauty

Alex Beyman9 Oct 2022 21:47 UTC
−2 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Why So Many Cookie Ban­ners?

jefftk10 Oct 2022 2:20 UTC
35 points
28 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Six (and a half) in­tu­itions for KL divergence

CallumMcDougall12 Oct 2022 21:07 UTC
114 points
16 comments10 min readLW link
(www.perfectlynormal.co.uk)

[Question] Does biol­ogy re­li­ably find the global max­i­mum, or at least get close?

Noosphere8910 Oct 2022 20:55 UTC
24 points
70 comments1 min readLW link

Why I think nu­clear war trig­gered by Rus­sian tac­ti­cal nukes in Ukraine is unlikely

Dave Orr11 Oct 2022 18:30 UTC
50 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

From tech­noc­racy to the counterculture

jasoncrawford11 Oct 2022 19:37 UTC
28 points
1 comment26 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Progress links and tweets, 2022-10-12

jasoncrawford12 Oct 2022 16:59 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Cal­ibra­tion of a thou­sand predictions

KatjaGrace12 Oct 2022 8:50 UTC
56 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Towards a com­pre­hen­sive study of po­ten­tial psy­cholog­i­cal causes of the or­di­nary range of vari­a­tion of af­fec­tive gen­der iden­tity in males

tailcalled12 Oct 2022 21:10 UTC
44 points
4 comments37 min readLW link

Towards a com­pre­hen­sive study of po­ten­tial psy­cholog­i­cal causes of the or­di­nary range of vari­a­tion of af­fec­tive gen­der iden­tity in males

tailcalled12 Oct 2022 21:10 UTC
44 points
4 comments37 min readLW link

Trans­for­ma­tive VR Is Likely Com­ing Soon

jimrandomh13 Oct 2022 6:25 UTC
89 points
42 comments2 min readLW link

Weekly Non-Covid News #1 (10/​13/​22)

Zvi13 Oct 2022 15:40 UTC
52 points
16 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Covid 10/​13/​22: Just the Facts

Zvi13 Oct 2022 14:40 UTC
28 points
7 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Feelings

Oren Montano13 Oct 2022 17:48 UTC
9 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Luck based medicine: my re­sent­ful story of be­com­ing a med­i­cal miracle

Elizabeth16 Oct 2022 17:40 UTC
428 points
87 comments12 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Age changes what you care about

Dentin16 Oct 2022 15:36 UTC
134 points
36 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Sig­nifi­cance of the Lan­guage of Thought Hy­poth­e­sis?

DrFlaggstaff16 Oct 2022 18:09 UTC
1 point
3 comments1 min readLW link

Max­i­mal lot­ter­ies for value learning

ViktoriaMalyasova16 Oct 2022 23:44 UTC
15 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Why Weren’t Hot Air Bal­loons In­vented Sooner?

Lost Futures18 Oct 2022 0:41 UTC
107 points
52 comments6 min readLW link
(lostfutures.substack.com)

Max­i­mal Lot­tery-Lotteries

Scott Garrabrant17 Oct 2022 20:39 UTC
60 points
15 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Is the mean­ing of words cho­sen/​in­ter­preted to max­i­mize cor­re­la­tions with other rele­vant queries?

tailcalled20 Oct 2022 10:03 UTC
9 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

What is Con­scious­ness?

belkarx19 Oct 2022 21:14 UTC
1 point
2 comments2 min readLW link

Covid 10/​20/​22: Wait, We Did WHAT?

Zvi20 Oct 2022 21:50 UTC
55 points
16 comments16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Weekly Roundup #2

Zvi21 Oct 2022 12:10 UTC
37 points
2 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The im­por­tance of study­ing sub­jec­tive experience

Q Home21 Oct 2022 8:43 UTC
8 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Telic in­tu­itions across the sciences

mrcbarbier22 Oct 2022 21:31 UTC
3 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

Noth­ing.

rogersbacon25 Oct 2022 16:33 UTC
−10 points
4 comments6 min readLW link
(www.secretorum.life)

Beyond Kol­mogorov and Shannon

25 Oct 2022 15:13 UTC
60 points
14 comments5 min readLW link

The Game of Antonyms

Faustify26 Oct 2022 19:26 UTC
3 points
4 comments8 min readLW link

Con­nec­tions be­tween Mind-Body Prob­lem & Civilizations

oblivion24 Oct 2022 21:55 UTC
−3 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Fu­til­ity of Religion

nmc24 Oct 2022 19:42 UTC
−1 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Covid 10/​27/​22: Another Ori­gin Story

Zvi27 Oct 2022 13:40 UTC
32 points
1 comment13 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Why are prob­a­bil­ities rep­re­sented as real num­bers in­stead of ra­tio­nal num­bers?

Yaakov T27 Oct 2022 11:23 UTC
5 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Nash equil­ibria of sym­met­ric zero-sum games

Ege Erdil27 Oct 2022 23:50 UTC
14 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

[Question] Good psy­chol­ogy books/​books that con­tain good psy­cholog­i­cal mod­els?

shuffled-cantaloupe27 Oct 2022 23:04 UTC
1 point
1 comment1 min readLW link

Ukraine and the Crimea Question

ChristianKl28 Oct 2022 12:26 UTC
7 points
150 comments11 min readLW link

Rapid Test Throat Swab­bing?

jefftk28 Oct 2022 16:30 UTC
18 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Pon­der­ing com­pu­ta­tion in the real world

Adam Shai28 Oct 2022 15:57 UTC
24 points
11 comments5 min readLW link

The So­cial Re­ces­sion: By the Numbers

antonomon29 Oct 2022 18:45 UTC
88 points
11 comments8 min readLW link
(novum.substack.com)

Don’t ex­pect your life part­ner to be bet­ter than your exes in more than one way: a math­e­mat­i­cal model

mdd29 Oct 2022 18:47 UTC
8 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

«Boundaries», Part 3a: Defin­ing bound­aries as di­rected Markov blankets

Andrew_Critch30 Oct 2022 6:31 UTC
58 points
13 comments15 min readLW link

“Nor­mal” is the equil­ibrium state of past op­ti­miza­tion processes

Alex_Altair30 Oct 2022 19:03 UTC
77 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-11-01

jasoncrawford1 Nov 2022 17:48 UTC
16 points
4 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Why is fiber good for you?

braces2 Nov 2022 2:04 UTC
16 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Markets

eva_2 Nov 2022 1:24 UTC
44 points
4 comments12 min readLW link

Mind is uncountable

Filip Sondej2 Nov 2022 11:51 UTC
12 points
22 comments1 min readLW link

Far-UVC Light Up­date: No, LEDs are not around the cor­ner (tweet­storm)

Davidmanheim2 Nov 2022 12:57 UTC
70 points
27 comments4 min readLW link
(twitter.com)

“Are Ex­per­i­ments Pos­si­ble?” Seeds of Science call for reviewers

rogersbacon2 Nov 2022 20:05 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 11/​3/​22: Ask­ing Forgiveness

Zvi3 Nov 2022 13:50 UTC
23 points
3 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Video] How hav­ing Fast Fourier Trans­forms sooner could have helped with Nu­clear Disar­ma­ment—Veritaserum

mako yass3 Nov 2022 21:04 UTC
17 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Monthly Shorts 10/​22

Celer4 Nov 2022 16:30 UTC
12 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(keller.substack.com)

Weekly Roundup #4

Zvi4 Nov 2022 15:00 UTC
42 points
1 comment6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

A new place to dis­cuss cog­ni­tive sci­ence, ethics and hu­man alignment

Daniel_Friedrich4 Nov 2022 14:34 UTC
3 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Fol­low up to med­i­cal miracle

Elizabeth4 Nov 2022 18:00 UTC
69 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

What is epi­ge­net­ics?

Metacelsus6 Nov 2022 1:24 UTC
68 points
4 comments6 min readLW link
(denovo.substack.com)

Eu­daimo­nia, Voltron, and The Multi-Di­men­sional Cri­sis Revolution

Jarred Filmer6 Nov 2022 1:03 UTC
22 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

What’s the Deal with Elon Musk and Twit­ter?

Zvi7 Nov 2022 13:50 UTC
60 points
11 comments31 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Is there some kind of back­log or de­lay for data cen­ter AI?

trevor7 Nov 2022 8:18 UTC
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Google Search as a Washed Up Ser­vice Dog: “I HALP!”

shminux7 Nov 2022 7:02 UTC
20 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Counterfactability

Scott Garrabrant7 Nov 2022 5:39 UTC
36 points
4 comments11 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] “Sta­tion Eleven” by Emily St. John Mandel

lsusr7 Nov 2022 5:56 UTC
16 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The op­ti­mal an­gle for a so­lar boiler is differ­ent than for a so­lar panel

Yair Halberstadt10 Nov 2022 10:32 UTC
42 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

What it’s like to dis­sect a cadaver

Alok Singh10 Nov 2022 6:40 UTC
178 points
18 comments5 min readLW link
(alok.github.io)

Mastodon Link­ing Norms

jefftk10 Nov 2022 15:10 UTC
9 points
9 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Covid 11/​10/​22: Into the Background

Zvi10 Nov 2022 13:40 UTC
31 points
5 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] What are ex­am­ples of prob­lems that were caused by in­tel­li­gence, that couldn’t be solved with in­tel­li­gence?

Peter O'Malley10 Nov 2022 2:04 UTC
1 point
2 comments1 min readLW link

Weekly Roundup #5

Zvi11 Nov 2022 16:20 UTC
33 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

“Ru­de­ness”, a use­ful co­or­di­na­tion mechanic

Raemon11 Nov 2022 22:27 UTC
49 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Some re­search ideas in forecasting

Jsevillamol15 Nov 2022 19:47 UTC
35 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

We need bet­ter pre­dic­tion markets

eigen15 Nov 2022 4:54 UTC
9 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

En­tropy Scal­ing And In­trin­sic Me­mory

15 Nov 2022 18:11 UTC
17 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

When should we be sur­prised that an in­ven­tion took “so long”?

jasoncrawford16 Nov 2022 20:04 UTC
32 points
9 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Why are prof­itable com­pa­nies lay­ing off staff?

Yair Halberstadt17 Nov 2022 6:19 UTC
15 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

log­i­cal vs in­dex­i­cal dignity

Tamsin Leake19 Nov 2022 12:43 UTC
25 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(carado.moe)

[Question] How does acausal trade work in a de­ter­minis­tic mul­ti­verse?

sisyphus19 Nov 2022 1:50 UTC
2 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is Crypto built on a foun­da­tion of ig­no­rance about In­for­ma­tion Asym­me­try?

trevor18 Nov 2022 19:43 UTC
3 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Re­view: Bayesian Statis­tics the Fun Way by Will Kurt

matto19 Nov 2022 18:52 UTC
4 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory but also Ghosts

eva_20 Nov 2022 13:24 UTC
17 points
21 comments10 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-11-22

jasoncrawford22 Nov 2022 17:39 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

My take on Ja­cob Can­nell’s take on AGI safety

Steven Byrnes28 Nov 2022 14:01 UTC
61 points
13 comments30 min readLW link

[Question] When do you vi­su­al­ize (or not) while do­ing math?

Alex_Altair23 Nov 2022 20:15 UTC
20 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Meme Dialects

jefftk23 Nov 2022 21:30 UTC
26 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

The Geo­met­ric Expectation

Scott Garrabrant23 Nov 2022 18:05 UTC
97 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

Covid 11/​24/​22: Thanks for Good Health

Zvi24 Nov 2022 13:00 UTC
26 points
4 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Open tech­ni­cal prob­lem: A Quinean proof of Löb’s the­o­rem, for an eas­ier car­toon guide

Andrew_Critch24 Nov 2022 21:16 UTC
43 points
34 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] His­tor­i­cal ex­am­ples of peo­ple gain­ing un­usual cog­ni­tive abil­ities?

NicholasKross24 Nov 2022 19:01 UTC
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Geo­met­ric Ex­plo­ra­tion, Arith­metic Exploitation

Scott Garrabrant24 Nov 2022 15:36 UTC
53 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

Take part in our gi­ant study of cog­ni­tive abil­ities and get a cus­tomized re­port of your strengths and weak­nesses!

spencerg25 Nov 2022 16:28 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.guidedtrack.com)

The many types of blog posts

Adam Zerner26 Nov 2022 3:57 UTC
10 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Why square er­rors?

Aprillion (Peter Hozák)26 Nov 2022 13:40 UTC
40 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] As­sum­ing that at least one re­li­gion is true, what would you ex­pect it to be?

risedive26 Nov 2022 8:34 UTC
−9 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

The First Filter

26 Nov 2022 19:37 UTC
55 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Always know where your ab­strac­tions break

lsusr27 Nov 2022 6:32 UTC
74 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Some thoughts about nat­u­ral com­pu­ta­tion and interactions

Adam Shai27 Nov 2022 18:15 UTC
11 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

[Question] About probabilities

mikbp27 Nov 2022 8:19 UTC
5 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Cur­rent Trends in Eco­nomics and their Shortcoming

joshlevent28 Nov 2022 19:36 UTC
5 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-11-29

jasoncrawford29 Nov 2022 20:54 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Bi­ases are en­g­ines of cognition

30 Nov 2022 16:47 UTC
41 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 12/​1/​22: China Protests

Zvi1 Dec 2022 17:10 UTC
38 points
2 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Brun’s the­o­rem and sieve theory

Ege Erdil2 Dec 2022 20:57 UTC
24 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

D&D.Sci De­cem­ber 2022: The Boojumologist

abstractapplic2 Dec 2022 23:39 UTC
28 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Log­i­cal in­duc­tion for soft­ware engineers

Alex Flint3 Dec 2022 19:55 UTC
124 points
2 comments27 min readLW link

Finite Fac­tored Sets in Pictures

Magdalena Wache11 Dec 2022 18:49 UTC
148 points
31 comments12 min readLW link

A Ten­ta­tive Timeline of The Near Fu­ture (2022-2025) for Self-Accountability

Yitz5 Dec 2022 5:33 UTC
26 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Scott Alexan­der’s “Iver­mectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know”

Raemon5 Dec 2021 5:43 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link2 reviews
(astralcodexten.substack.com)

Nook Nature

[DEACTIVATED] Duncan Sabien5 Dec 2022 4:10 UTC
54 points
17 comments10 min readLW link

Monthly Shorts 11/​22

Celer5 Dec 2022 7:30 UTC
8 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(keller.substack.com)

[ASoT] Prob­a­bil­ity In­fects Con­cepts it Touches

Ulisse Mini7 Dec 2022 1:48 UTC
10 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Peter Thiel on Tech­nolog­i­cal Stag­na­tion and Out of Touch Rationalists

Matt Goldenberg7 Dec 2022 13:15 UTC
8 points
25 comments1 min readLW link
(youtu.be)

[Question] Where’s the eco­nomic in­cen­tive for wok­ism com­ing from?

Valentine8 Dec 2022 23:28 UTC
−6 points
97 comments1 min readLW link

[Link] Wave­func­tions: from Lin­ear Alge­bra to Spinors

sen7 Dec 2022 12:44 UTC
11 points
12 comments1 min readLW link
(paperclip.substack.com)

Sys­tems of Survival

Vaniver9 Dec 2022 5:13 UTC
52 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Monthly Roundup #1

Zvi9 Dec 2022 17:10 UTC
30 points
6 comments21 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Do You Have an In­ter­nal Monologue?

belkarx9 Dec 2022 3:04 UTC
22 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

A dy­nam­i­cal sys­tems primer for en­tropy and optimization

Alex_Altair10 Dec 2022 0:13 UTC
29 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Will Man­i­fold Mar­kets/​Me­tac­u­lus have built-in sup­port for re­flec­tive la­tent vari­ables by 2025?

tailcalled10 Dec 2022 13:55 UTC
32 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] A thought experiment

sisyphus10 Dec 2022 5:23 UTC
3 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Rev­ers­ing a quan­tum simu­la­tion on the plane­tary scale

Mythopoeist10 Dec 2022 20:26 UTC
2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

For­mal­iza­tion as sus­pen­sion of intuition

adamShimi11 Dec 2022 15:16 UTC
54 points
18 comments1 min readLW link
(epistemologicalvigilance.substack.com)

Con­fus­ing the goal and the path

adamShimi12 Dec 2022 16:42 UTC
43 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(epistemologicalvigilance.substack.com)

Psy­cholog­i­cal Di­sor­ders and Problems

12 Dec 2022 18:15 UTC
35 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

D&D.Sci De­cem­ber 2022 Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

abstractapplic12 Dec 2022 21:21 UTC
10 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Log-odds are bet­ter than Probabilities

Robert_AIZI12 Dec 2022 20:10 UTC
19 points
4 comments4 min readLW link
(aizi.substack.com)

[In­com­plete] What is Com­pu­ta­tion Any­way?

DragonGod14 Dec 2022 16:17 UTC
7 points
1 comment13 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

[Question] Stan­ley Meyer’s wa­ter fuel cell

mikbp14 Dec 2022 21:19 UTC
2 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Robin Han­son’s “Hu­mans are Early”

Raemon14 Dec 2021 22:07 UTC
11 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.overcomingbias.com)

Ba­sic build­ing blocks of de­pen­dent type theory

Thomas Kehrenberg15 Dec 2022 14:54 UTC
39 points
4 comments13 min readLW link

Two Dog­mas of LessWrong

omnizoid15 Dec 2022 17:56 UTC
−6 points
142 comments69 min readLW link

Beyond the mo­ment of invention

jasoncrawford16 Dec 2022 20:18 UTC
35 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Pre­dic­tive Pro­cess­ing, Hetero­sex­u­al­ity and Delu­sions of Grandeur

lsusr17 Dec 2022 7:37 UTC
30 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Why Are Women Hot?

Jacob Falkovich18 Dec 2022 23:20 UTC
20 points
12 comments11 min readLW link

[Question] Can we, in prin­ci­ple, know the mea­sure of coun­ter­fac­tual quan­tum branches?

sisyphus18 Dec 2022 22:07 UTC
1 point
15 comments1 min readLW link

Slick hy­per­finite Ram­sey the­ory proof

Alok Singh19 Dec 2022 8:40 UTC
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(alok.github.io)

Con­di­tions for Su­per­ra­tional­ity-mo­ti­vated Co­op­er­a­tion in a one-shot Pri­soner’s Dilemma

Jim Buhler19 Dec 2022 15:00 UTC
11 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

[Fic­tion] Un­spo­ken Stone

Gordon Seidoh Worley20 Dec 2022 5:11 UTC
19 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Fibromyal­gia, Pain & De­pres­sion. How much is due to phys­i­cal mis­al­ign­ment?

leggi29 Oct 2019 14:58 UTC
7 points
4 comments18 min readLW link

Should the­o­ries have a con­trol group

George3d624 Apr 2020 14:45 UTC
5 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(blog.cerebralab.com)

A Book Review

Zack_M_Davis28 Apr 2020 17:43 UTC
15 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(unremediatedgender.space)

In­di­vi­d­ual Ra­tion­al­ity Needn’t Gen­er­al­ize to Ra­tional Consensus

Akshat Mahajan4 May 2020 22:53 UTC
42 points
17 comments4 min readLW link

Kids and Mo­ral Agency

jefftk8 May 2020 12:50 UTC
30 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Nihilism doesn’t matter

B Jacobs21 May 2020 18:19 UTC
7 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

The Valley of Bad Theory

johnswentworth6 Oct 2018 3:06 UTC
64 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

Will AI un­dergo dis­con­tin­u­ous progress?

Sammy Martin21 Feb 2020 22:16 UTC
26 points
21 comments20 min readLW link

Coron­avirus as a test-run for X-risks

Sammy Martin13 Jun 2020 21:00 UTC
69 points
10 comments18 min readLW link

Ed­u­ca­tion 2.0 — A brand new ed­u­ca­tion system

aryan15 Jul 2020 10:09 UTC
−8 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Mu­si­cal Outgroups

eapache19 Jul 2020 22:55 UTC
9 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

The abrupt­ness of nu­clear weapons

paulfchristiano25 Feb 2018 17:40 UTC
47 points
35 comments2 min readLW link

Se­cu­rity Mind­set and Or­di­nary Paranoia

Eliezer Yudkowsky25 Nov 2017 17:53 UTC
98 points
24 comments29 min readLW link

Self-fulfilling correlations

PhilGoetz26 Aug 2010 21:07 UTC
144 points
50 comments3 min readLW link

Life at Three Tails of the Bell Curve

lsusr27 Jun 2020 8:49 UTC
63 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

Gears in understanding

Valentine12 May 2017 0:36 UTC
159 points
38 comments10 min readLW link

What can the prin­ci­pal-agent liter­a­ture tell us about AI risk?

apc8 Feb 2020 21:28 UTC
102 points
31 comments16 min readLW link

In­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

So8res9 May 2019 19:16 UTC
68 points
22 comments5 min readLW link

Science like a chef

Adam Zerner8 Feb 2018 21:23 UTC
32 points
17 comments3 min readLW link

How Doomed are Large Or­ga­ni­za­tions?

Zvi21 Jan 2020 12:20 UTC
76 points
42 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Sepa­ra­tion of Concerns

abramdemski23 May 2019 21:47 UTC
66 points
30 comments6 min readLW link

Six Plau­si­ble Meta-Eth­i­cal Alternatives

Wei Dai6 Aug 2014 0:04 UTC
81 points
36 comments3 min readLW link

The Sim­ple Math of Everything

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Nov 2007 22:42 UTC
84 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

1001 Pre­dic­tionBook Nights

gwern8 Oct 2011 16:04 UTC
72 points
49 comments1 min readLW link

News ⊂ Advertising

lsusr22 Jun 2020 19:19 UTC
40 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

“But that’s your job”: why or­gani­sa­tions can work

Stuart_Armstrong5 Feb 2020 12:25 UTC
71 points
12 comments4 min readLW link

What is a School?

Zvi13 Mar 2020 22:00 UTC
51 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Franken­stein De­lenda Est

eapache10 Jul 2020 14:38 UTC
11 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Fight the Power

Jacob Falkovich22 Jun 2020 2:19 UTC
23 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Con­figu­ra­tions and Amplitude

Eliezer Yudkowsky11 Apr 2008 3:14 UTC
59 points
390 comments10 min readLW link

No One Knows What Science Doesn’t Know

Eliezer Yudkowsky25 Oct 2007 23:47 UTC
77 points
107 comments3 min readLW link

What Botswana Can Teach Us About Poli­ti­cal Stability

Samo Burja9 May 2019 18:30 UTC
40 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Joint Configurations

Eliezer Yudkowsky11 Apr 2008 5:00 UTC
63 points
40 comments4 min readLW link

Noisy Poll Re­sults And Rep­tilian Mus­lim Cli­ma­tol­o­gists from Mars

Scott Alexander12 Apr 2013 10:49 UTC
38 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

An­gry Atoms

Eliezer Yudkowsky31 Mar 2008 0:28 UTC
57 points
60 comments4 min readLW link

Bleach

jefftk4 Mar 2020 3:20 UTC
32 points
2 comments3 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Knowl­edge is Freedom

Scott Garrabrant9 Feb 2018 5:24 UTC
31 points
16 comments6 min readLW link

Form Your Own Opinions

Ben Pace28 Apr 2018 19:50 UTC
33 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Lay­ers of Ex­per­tise and the Curse of Curiosity

Gyrodiot12 Feb 2019 23:41 UTC
19 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

So­phie Grouchy on A Build-Break Model of Cooperation

weft25 May 2018 14:55 UTC
24 points
6 comments8 min readLW link
(sophiegrouchy.wordpress.com)

How to pick your categories

[deleted]11 Nov 2010 15:13 UTC
78 points
22 comments6 min readLW link

Me­gapro­ject management

ryan_b11 Jan 2019 17:08 UTC
55 points
11 comments5 min readLW link1 review

Burnout: What it is and how to Treat it.

Elizabeth7 Nov 2018 22:02 UTC
49 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

How fea­si­ble is long-range fore­cast­ing?

Ben Pace10 Oct 2019 22:11 UTC
40 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

On Defense Mechanisms

Quaerendo4 Mar 2018 18:53 UTC
25 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

The Three Stages Of Model Development

katerinjo22 Feb 2018 14:33 UTC
17 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

A vot­ing the­ory primer for rationalists

Jameson Quinn12 Apr 2018 15:15 UTC
207 points
96 comments17 min readLW link2 reviews

In­tel­lec­tual Hip­sters and Meta-Contrarianism

Scott Alexander13 Sep 2010 21:36 UTC
333 points
368 comments8 min readLW link

Cred­i­bil­ity of the CDC on SARS-CoV-2

7 Mar 2020 2:00 UTC
224 points
119 comments6 min readLW link1 review

Lizard Jock­ey­ing for Fun and Profit

ialdabaoth10 Nov 2017 18:51 UTC
24 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

Me­mory, nu­tri­tion, mo­ti­va­tion, and genes

PhilGoetz26 Feb 2013 5:25 UTC
24 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Cri­tiquing Gary Taubes, Part 2: Atk­ins Redux

ChrisHallquist30 Dec 2013 0:58 UTC
7 points
191 comments4 min readLW link

Cri­tiquing Gary Taubes, Part 3: Did the US Govern­ment Give Us Ab­surd Ad­vice About Su­gar?

ChrisHallquist30 Dec 2013 0:58 UTC
8 points
153 comments6 min readLW link

Prospect­ing for Con­cep­tual Holes

lsusr30 Oct 2019 8:34 UTC
69 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Hy­po­thet­i­cals: The Direct Ap­pli­ca­tion Fallacy

Chris_Leong9 May 2018 14:23 UTC
21 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

En­tan­gled Truths, Con­ta­gious Lies

Eliezer Yudkowsky15 Oct 2008 23:39 UTC
84 points
42 comments4 min readLW link

Is the World Get­ting Bet­ter? A brief sum­mary of re­cent debate

ErickBall6 Feb 2019 17:38 UTC
35 points
8 comments2 min readLW link
(capx.co)

How to Un­der­stand and Miti­gate Risk

Matt Goldenberg12 Mar 2019 10:14 UTC
55 points
30 comments16 min readLW link

“Every­thing is Cor­re­lated”: An An­thol­ogy of the Psy­chol­ogy Debate

gwern27 Apr 2019 13:48 UTC
40 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Cat­e­gories: mod­els of models

countedblessings9 Oct 2019 2:45 UTC
49 points
18 comments12 min readLW link

Philos­o­phy as low-en­ergy approximation

Charlie Steiner5 Feb 2019 19:34 UTC
39 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How Can Peo­ple Eval­u­ate Com­plex Ques­tions Con­sis­tently?

Elizabeth26 Aug 2019 20:33 UTC
46 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

How Should We Cri­tique Re­search? A De­ci­sion Perspective

gwern14 Jul 2019 22:51 UTC
46 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

In­tel­lec­tual Dark Matter

Samo Burja16 Jul 2019 15:20 UTC
43 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Hearsay, Dou­ble Hearsay, and Bayesian Updates

Mass_Driver16 Feb 2012 22:31 UTC
68 points
107 comments6 min readLW link

Defin­ing “An­timeme”

lsusr26 Dec 2019 9:35 UTC
16 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Peck­ing Order and Flight Leadership

sarahconstantin29 Apr 2019 20:30 UTC
43 points
18 comments3 min readLW link
(srconstantin.wordpress.com)

Minor, per­spec­tive chang­ing facts

Stuart_Armstrong22 Apr 2013 19:01 UTC
58 points
158 comments1 min readLW link

What Are Prob­a­bil­ities, Any­way?

Wei Dai11 Dec 2009 0:25 UTC
45 points
89 comments2 min readLW link

Com­plete Class: Con­se­quen­tial­ist Foundations

abramdemski11 Jul 2018 1:57 UTC
50 points
34 comments13 min readLW link

Cor­re­spon­dence vi­su­al­iza­tions for differ­ent in­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

So8res10 May 2019 17:10 UTC
42 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Ac­ti­va­tion En­er­gies and Uncertainty

whpearson1 Nov 2017 10:23 UTC
20 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The Mean­ing of Right

Eliezer Yudkowsky29 Jul 2008 1:28 UTC
50 points
152 comments23 min readLW link

Set­ting Up Metaethics

Eliezer Yudkowsky28 Jul 2008 2:25 UTC
22 points
34 comments4 min readLW link

Chang­ing Your Metaethics

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 Jul 2008 12:36 UTC
43 points
21 comments5 min readLW link

Is Mo­ral­ity Given?

Eliezer Yudkowsky6 Jul 2008 8:12 UTC
31 points
100 comments8 min readLW link

Mo­ral Complexities

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Jul 2008 6:43 UTC
27 points
40 comments1 min readLW link

The Be­drock of Fairness

Eliezer Yudkowsky3 Jul 2008 6:00 UTC
47 points
103 comments5 min readLW link

Could Any­thing Be Right?

Eliezer Yudkowsky18 Jul 2008 7:19 UTC
52 points
39 comments6 min readLW link

This Ter­ri­tory Does Not Exist

ike13 Aug 2020 0:30 UTC
7 points
199 comments7 min readLW link

Many-wor­lds ver­sus dis­crete knowledge

jessicata13 Aug 2020 18:35 UTC
20 points
27 comments1 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

[Link] “Fewer than X% of Amer­i­cans know Y”

Nisan10 Oct 2012 16:59 UTC
60 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

When (Not) To Use Probabilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky23 Jul 2008 10:58 UTC
49 points
44 comments6 min readLW link

How does per­son­al­ity vary across US cities?

JonahS20 Dec 2016 8:00 UTC
66 points
17 comments6 min readLW link

Ap­ply­ing util­ity func­tions to hu­mans con­sid­ered harmful

Kaj_Sotala3 Feb 2010 19:22 UTC
36 points
116 comments5 min readLW link

[Link] A gen­tle video in­tro­duc­tion to game the­ory

[deleted]13 Dec 2011 8:52 UTC
46 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

Real­ity has a sur­pris­ing amount of detail

jsalvatier13 May 2017 20:02 UTC
65 points
24 comments1 min readLW link
(johnsalvatier.org)

Real­ity is weirdly normal

Rob Bensinger25 Aug 2013 19:29 UTC
55 points
81 comments5 min readLW link

Univer­sal Law

Eliezer Yudkowsky29 Apr 2007 6:41 UTC
89 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Acausal romance

lukeprog25 Feb 2012 9:13 UTC
39 points
37 comments1 min readLW link

Con­fused as to use­ful­ness of ‘con­scious­ness’ as a concept

KnaveOfAllTrades13 Jul 2014 11:01 UTC
54 points
230 comments7 min readLW link

Test­ing the Effi­cacy of Disagree­ment Re­s­olu­tion Tech­niques (and a Pro­posal for Test­ing Dou­ble Crux)

Ronny Fernandez21 Oct 2019 22:57 UTC
35 points
4 comments15 min readLW link

[Question] What au­thors con­sis­tently give ac­cu­rate pic­tures of com­plex top­ics they dis­cuss?

seez21 Aug 2019 0:09 UTC
34 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

To what de­gree do you model peo­ple as agents?

Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) 25 Aug 2013 19:29 UTC
47 points
133 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Hard to find fac­tors mess­ing up ex­per­i­ments: Ex­am­ples?

Hazard15 Nov 2019 17:46 UTC
32 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

In­spec­tion Para­dox as a Driver of Group Separation

shminux17 Aug 2019 21:47 UTC
29 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

By de­fault, avoid am­bigu­ous dis­tant situations

Stuart_Armstrong21 May 2019 14:48 UTC
33 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

The Do­main of Your Utility Function

Peter_de_Blanc23 Jun 2009 4:58 UTC
42 points
99 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How do we iden­tify bot­tle­necks to sci­en­tific and tech­nolog­i­cal progress?

NaiveTortoise31 Dec 2018 20:21 UTC
31 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

A hun­dred Shakespeares

Stuart_Armstrong11 Dec 2018 23:11 UTC
29 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

The State of Affairs

Jacob Falkovich3 May 2019 16:18 UTC
33 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

Nat­u­ral Laws Are De­scrip­tions, not Rules

pragmatist8 Aug 2012 4:27 UTC
39 points
236 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] What’s your big idea?

Gordon Seidoh Worley18 Oct 2019 15:47 UTC
30 points
64 comments1 min readLW link

Is That Your True Re­jec­tion? by Eliezer Yud­kowsky @ Cato Unbound

XiXiDu7 Sep 2011 18:27 UTC
44 points
83 comments1 min readLW link

Episte­mol­ogy and the Psy­chol­ogy of Hu­man Judgment

badger28 May 2011 5:15 UTC
44 points
9 comments11 min readLW link

An Agent is a Wor­ldline in Teg­mark V

komponisto12 Jul 2018 5:12 UTC
24 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Risk aver­sion does not ex­plain peo­ple’s bet­ting behaviours

Stuart_Armstrong20 Aug 2012 12:38 UTC
19 points
36 comments2 min readLW link

Risk is not em­piri­cally cor­re­lated with return

jsalvatier22 Nov 2010 5:31 UTC
11 points
28 comments2 min readLW link

Risk of Mass Hu­man Suffer­ing /​ Ex­tinc­tion due to Cli­mate Emer­gency

willfranks14 Mar 2019 18:32 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Risk aver­sion vs. con­cave util­ity function

dvasya31 Jan 2012 6:25 UTC
3 points
35 comments3 min readLW link

Risk and un­cer­tainty: A false di­chotomy?

MichaelA18 Jan 2020 3:09 UTC
3 points
9 comments20 min readLW link

[Question] How can guessti­mates work?

jacobjacob10 Jul 2019 19:33 UTC
24 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Levels of AI Self-Im­prove­ment

avturchin29 Apr 2018 11:45 UTC
11 points
0 comments39 min readLW link

Distinct Configurations

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 Apr 2008 4:42 UTC
54 points
24 comments6 min readLW link

Col­lapse Postulates

Eliezer Yudkowsky9 May 2008 7:49 UTC
47 points
65 comments3 min readLW link

De­co­her­ence is Simple

Eliezer Yudkowsky6 May 2008 7:44 UTC
57 points
61 comments11 min readLW link

De­co­her­ence is Falsifi­able and Testable

Eliezer Yudkowsky7 May 2008 7:54 UTC
40 points
42 comments9 min readLW link

Quan­tum Non-Realism

Eliezer Yudkowsky8 May 2008 5:27 UTC
48 points
41 comments8 min readLW link

Quan­tum com­put­ing for the de­ter­mined (Link)

XiXiDu13 Jun 2011 17:42 UTC
23 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Quan­tum Joint Con­figu­ra­tion ar­ti­cle: need help from physicists

mwengler22 Dec 2010 18:32 UTC
25 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Quan­tum Me­chan­ics, Noth­ing to do with Consciousness

Donald Hobson26 Nov 2018 18:59 UTC
10 points
27 comments3 min readLW link

The In­spec­tion Para­dox is Everywhere

Chris_Leong15 Nov 2018 10:55 UTC
24 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(allendowney.blogspot.com)

The Web Browser is Not Your Client (But You Don’t Need To Know That)

Error22 Apr 2016 0:12 UTC
44 points
47 comments7 min readLW link

A Cri­tique of Lev­er­age Re­search’s Con­nec­tion Theory

Peter Wildeford20 Sep 2012 4:28 UTC
43 points
31 comments6 min readLW link

Con­nec­tion The­ory Has Less Than No Evidence

WilliamJames1 Aug 2014 10:17 UTC
30 points
50 comments2 min readLW link

Knigh­tian un­cer­tainty: a re­jec­tion of the MMEU rule

So8res26 Aug 2014 3:03 UTC
40 points
9 comments15 min readLW link

Beyond Rea­son­able Doubt? - Richard Dawk­ins [link]

Dreaded_Anomaly10 Feb 2012 2:28 UTC
33 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

Hier­ar­chy and wings

Benquo6 May 2019 18:39 UTC
25 points
22 comments2 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

On See­ing Through ‘On See­ing Through: A Unified The­ory’: A Unified Theory

gwern15 Jun 2019 18:57 UTC
26 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

To un­der­stand, study edge cases

shminux2 Mar 2019 21:18 UTC
25 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Ev­i­den­tial De­ci­sion The­ory, Selec­tion Bias, and Refer­ence Classes

Qiaochu_Yuan8 Jul 2013 5:16 UTC
34 points
128 comments6 min readLW link

Over­con­fi­dent Pessimism

lukeprog24 Nov 2012 0:47 UTC
37 points
38 comments4 min readLW link

Analog­i­cal Rea­son­ing and Creativity

jacob_cannell1 Jul 2015 20:38 UTC
38 points
15 comments14 min readLW link

Philo­soph­i­cal self-ratification

jessicata3 Feb 2020 22:48 UTC
23 points
13 comments5 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Pre­dic­tive Rea­son­ing Systems

ozziegooen20 Feb 2019 19:44 UTC
26 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What to make of Aubrey de Grey’s pre­dic­tion?

Rafael Harth28 Feb 2020 19:25 UTC
23 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Time Binders

Slimepriestess24 Feb 2020 9:55 UTC
24 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(hivewired.wordpress.com)

June 2020 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwern2 Jul 2020 14:19 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

[Question] Why hasn’t there been re­search on the effec­tive­ness of zinc for Covid-19?

Rudi C24 Aug 2020 20:58 UTC
12 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

The Values-to-Ac­tions De­ci­sion Chain

Remmelt30 Jun 2018 21:52 UTC
25 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

Indig­na­tion in re­sponse to the 1890 census

jasoncrawford8 Sep 2020 20:14 UTC
26 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Clar­ify­ing “What failure looks like”

Sam Clarke20 Sep 2020 20:40 UTC
95 points
14 comments17 min readLW link

Up close and per­sonal with the world

dominicq25 Sep 2020 6:52 UTC
12 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

COVID Strat­egy 101

Mike Harris5 Oct 2020 19:30 UTC
55 points
7 comments18 min readLW link

Philos­o­phy of Therapy

DaystarEld10 Oct 2020 20:12 UTC
115 points
28 comments16 min readLW link
(daystareld.com)

How to come up with ver­bal probabilities

jimmy29 Apr 2009 8:35 UTC
27 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

A Toy Model for Me­dia Sharing

Zachary Robertson17 Oct 2020 15:59 UTC
12 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Does play­ing hard to get work? AB test­ing for romance

amplemaple26 Oct 2020 15:29 UTC
16 points
26 comments5 min readLW link

The Con­scious Sorites Paradox

Eliezer Yudkowsky28 Apr 2008 2:58 UTC
16 points
41 comments5 min readLW link

The Com­edy of Behaviorism

Eliezer Yudkowsky2 Aug 2008 20:42 UTC
30 points
56 comments6 min readLW link

Con­tam­i­nated by Optimism

Eliezer Yudkowsky6 Aug 2008 0:26 UTC
17 points
78 comments7 min readLW link

Fried­man’s “Pre­dic­tion vs. Ex­pla­na­tion”

Eliezer Yudkowsky29 Sep 2008 6:15 UTC
9 points
79 comments1 min readLW link

To­tal Nano Domination

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 Nov 2008 9:54 UTC
26 points
23 comments10 min readLW link

Disjunc­tions, An­tipre­dic­tions, Etc.

Eliezer Yudkowsky9 Dec 2008 15:13 UTC
27 points
26 comments5 min readLW link

Get­ting Nearer

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Jan 2009 9:28 UTC
16 points
23 comments3 min readLW link

In­vest­ing for the Long Slump

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Jan 2009 8:56 UTC
11 points
54 comments1 min readLW link

Lies and Secrets

steven04618 Mar 2009 14:43 UTC
18 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Two rea­sons to ex­pect a peace­ful change of power in the US

Tim Liptrot8 Nov 2020 17:13 UTC
11 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Where Do We Go From Here?

eapache8 Nov 2020 19:53 UTC
7 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Read­ing/​listen­ing list for the US failing or other sig­nifi­cant shifts?

Nicole Ross13 Nov 2020 15:34 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Without models

RichardKennaway4 May 2009 11:31 UTC
21 points
56 comments7 min readLW link

Ex­am­ples of Measures

Maxwell Peterson15 Nov 2020 1:44 UTC
22 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Con­sider Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Data Sets

Vladimir_Nesov6 May 2009 1:49 UTC
12 points
15 comments5 min readLW link

Eth2 Stak­ing ex­plained as a Fi­nan­cial Instrument

Annapurna2 Dec 2020 3:33 UTC
18 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

How We Failed COVID-19

LukeOnline2 Dec 2020 21:29 UTC
16 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

D&D.Sci

abstractapplic5 Dec 2020 23:26 UTC
41 points
52 comments1 min readLW link

Chance that “AI safety ba­si­cally [doesn’t need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by de­fault un­less we’re com­pletely com­pletely care­less”

8 Dec 2020 21:08 UTC
27 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Chap­ter 10: What does it Mean?

ld972 Mar 2020 18:21 UTC
3 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

An ap­peal for vi­tamin D sup­ple­men­ta­tion as a pro­phy­lac­tic for coro­n­aviruses and in­fluenza and a sim­ple evolu­tion­ary the­ory for why this is plau­si­ble.

Michael A22 Dec 2020 19:40 UTC
11 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

Risk Map of AI Systems

15 Dec 2020 9:16 UTC
25 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

The Perver­sity of High Standards

SocratesDissatisfied27 Dec 2020 14:37 UTC
19 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

AI Align­ment, Philo­soph­i­cal Plu­ral­ism, and the Rele­vance of Non-Western Philosophy

xuan1 Jan 2021 0:08 UTC
30 points
21 comments20 min readLW link

[Question] If the fun­da­men­tal prob­lem that eco­nomics ad­dresses is the scarcity of re­sources, then what are the ba­sic ques­tions other sub­jects at­tempt to solve?

Kaveh-Sedghi3 Jan 2021 2:36 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Co­her­ent de­ci­sions im­ply con­sis­tent utilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 May 2019 21:33 UTC
139 points
81 comments26 min readLW link3 reviews

Fit­ting­ness: Ra­tional suc­cess in con­cept formation

Polytopos10 Jan 2021 15:58 UTC
6 points
9 comments6 min readLW link

Mini thoughts on mintheism

CraigMichael11 Jan 2021 5:14 UTC
15 points
1 comment7 min readLW link

D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror’s Per­sonal Shopper

abstractapplic12 Jan 2021 1:38 UTC
51 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

Physi­cist’s dissociation

Mateusz Mazurkiewicz12 Jan 2021 4:40 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Con­tra StatNews: How Long to Herd Im­mu­nity?

AppliedDivinityStudies20 Jan 2021 22:06 UTC
24 points
0 comments11 min readLW link

Is the world be­com­ing bet­ter?

invertedpassion6 Feb 2021 9:28 UTC
34 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

Ob­jec­tive truth?

pchvykov15 Feb 2021 21:47 UTC
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Bit­coin and ESG Investing

Annapurna15 Feb 2021 21:01 UTC
3 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are the most pow­er­ful lo­tuses?

ForensicOceanography20 Feb 2021 19:05 UTC
12 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

The Pro­to­typ­i­cal Ne­go­ti­a­tion Game

johnswentworth20 Feb 2021 21:33 UTC
90 points
16 comments5 min readLW link1 review

Chaotic era: avoid or sur­vive?

Just Learning22 Feb 2021 1:34 UTC
3 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

A Primer on United States Treasuries

Annapurna10 Mar 2021 3:08 UTC
14 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Can an econ­omy keep on grow­ing?

invertedpassion16 Mar 2021 9:55 UTC
1 point
12 comments6 min readLW link

Open, Free, Safe: Choose Two

jaspax20 Mar 2021 16:42 UTC
101 points
17 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What does the re­ac­tion to NFTs tell us about how peo­ple eval­u­ate ecolog­i­cal dam­age?

sxae24 Mar 2021 16:01 UTC
1 point
5 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What is the se­man­tics of as­sign­ing prob­a­bil­ities to fu­ture events?

Michal1 Apr 2021 0:29 UTC
12 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

An­a­lyz­ing Mul­ti­player Games us­ing IMPACT

midco2 Apr 2021 19:10 UTC
10 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

Con­vict Con­di­tion­ing Book Review

Borasko9 Apr 2021 22:10 UTC
40 points
11 comments11 min readLW link

The se­cret of Wikipe­dia’s success

Aaron Bergman14 Apr 2021 22:18 UTC
65 points
10 comments6 min readLW link
(aaronbergman.substack.com)

[Question] Can you im­prove IQ by prac­tic­ing IQ tests?

ForensicOceanography27 Apr 2021 11:28 UTC
8 points
40 comments1 min readLW link

Re­view and Com­par­i­son: Onto-Car­tog­ra­phy & Promise Theory

Josephine9 May 2021 0:42 UTC
13 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Are PS5 scalpers ac­tu­ally bad?

willbradshaw18 May 2021 12:27 UTC
23 points
29 comments3 min readLW link

The Ree­bok effect

Jan Christian Refsgaard21 May 2021 17:11 UTC
13 points
15 comments1 min readLW link
(statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu)

The BTC equil­ibriu­mat­ing and the ETH one-eightening

Randomized, Controlled25 May 2021 21:32 UTC
22 points
7 comments13 min readLW link

[Question] How likely is our view of the cos­mos?

Yitz27 May 2021 16:35 UTC
8 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Thoughts on the Align­ment Im­pli­ca­tions of Scal­ing Lan­guage Models

leogao2 Jun 2021 21:32 UTC
79 points
11 comments17 min readLW link

Unat­tributed Good

Filip Dousek4 Jun 2021 20:47 UTC
10 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Gam­ing Incentives

Jozdien29 Jul 2021 13:51 UTC
10 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Thoughts on a “Se­quences In­spired” PhD Topic

goose00017 Jun 2021 20:36 UTC
7 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The Effi­cient Mar­ket Hy­poth­e­sis in Research

libai8 Jul 2021 17:00 UTC
11 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

The Bul­lwhip Effect

aysajan13 Jul 2021 20:40 UTC
19 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

So­cial me­dia: de­signed to be bad for you & for society

matto24 Jul 2021 18:59 UTC
29 points
18 comments4 min readLW link

In Most Mar­kets, Lower Risk Means Higher Reward

dawangy13 Aug 2021 17:32 UTC
33 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

As­sign­ing prob­a­bil­ities to meta­phys­i­cal ideas

Jotto9998 Sep 2021 0:15 UTC
14 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

Dist­in­guish­ing AI takeover scenarios

8 Sep 2021 16:19 UTC
67 points
11 comments14 min readLW link

Paths To High-Level Ma­chine Intelligence

Daniel_Eth10 Sep 2021 13:21 UTC
67 points
8 comments33 min readLW link

[linkpost] The Psy­cholog­i­cal Econ­omy of In­ac­tion by William Gillis

Quinn12 Sep 2021 22:04 UTC
12 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(humaniterations.net)

Sun­screen: much more than you wanted to know

Pierre Vandenberghe28 Sep 2021 10:42 UTC
29 points
10 comments6 min readLW link
(pierreavdb.substack.com)

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion: Look­ing At Progress On C. elgans

jefftk29 Oct 2011 15:21 UTC
59 points
85 comments2 min readLW link

AI Pre­dic­tion Ser­vices and Risks of War

isaduan3 Oct 2021 10:26 UTC
3 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

Pos­si­ble Wor­lds af­ter Pre­dic­tion Take-off

isaduan3 Oct 2021 10:26 UTC
5 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Rul­ing Out Every­thing Else

[DEACTIVATED] Duncan Sabien27 Oct 2021 21:50 UTC
163 points
49 comments21 min readLW link2 reviews

What are red flags for Neu­ral Net­work suffer­ing?

Marius Hobbhahn8 Nov 2021 12:51 UTC
26 points
15 comments12 min readLW link

Study Guide

johnswentworth6 Nov 2021 1:23 UTC
220 points
41 comments16 min readLW link

A FLI post­doc­toral grant ap­pli­ca­tion: AI al­ign­ment via causal anal­y­sis and de­sign of agents

PabloAMC13 Nov 2021 1:44 UTC
4 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Where in the world will a UBI de­velop first?

Asgård3 Dec 2021 15:54 UTC
4 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Model­ing Failure Modes of High-Level Ma­chine Intelligence

6 Dec 2021 13:54 UTC
54 points
1 comment12 min readLW link

See­ing the In­visi­ble (And How to Think About Ma­chine Learn­ing)

Filip Dousek8 Dec 2021 21:04 UTC
3 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Ex­pec­ta­tions In­fluence Real­ity (and AI)

purplelight4 Feb 2022 21:31 UTC
0 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Hous­ing Mar­kets, Satis­ficers, and One-Track Goodhart

J Bostock16 Dec 2021 21:38 UTC
1 point
2 comments2 min readLW link

Po­ten­tial gears level ex­pla­na­tions of smooth progress

ryan_greenblatt22 Dec 2021 18:05 UTC
4 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Hedg­ing the Pos­si­bil­ity of Rus­sia in­vad­ing Ukraine

Annapurna23 Dec 2021 1:13 UTC
22 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 1 (solu­tion)

Pablo Repetto21 Dec 2021 17:42 UTC
9 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Use Nor­mal Predictions

Jan Christian Refsgaard9 Jan 2022 15:01 UTC
137 points
69 comments6 min readLW link

The pos­si­bil­ity of no good amaz­ing forecasters

Johannes C. Mayer3 Jan 2022 12:57 UTC
3 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Two om­i­nous charts on the fi­nan­cial mar­kets

arunto8 Jan 2022 14:07 UTC
25 points
26 comments2 min readLW link

An Open Philan­thropy grant pro­posal: Causal rep­re­sen­ta­tion learn­ing of hu­man preferences

PabloAMC11 Jan 2022 11:28 UTC
19 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

Ques­tion Gravity

Isaac King13 Jan 2022 6:30 UTC
50 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Work­ing through D&D.Sci, prob­lem 3

Pablo Repetto23 Jan 2022 2:49 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Re­vis­it­ing Brave New World Re­vis­ited (Chap­ter 3)

Justin Bullock1 Feb 2022 17:17 UTC
5 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

The ’Why’s of an In­ter­na­tional Aux­iliary Lan­guage (IAL part 1)

Long try8 Feb 2022 4:39 UTC
−1 points
26 comments5 min readLW link

To Change the World

lsusr10 Feb 2022 6:08 UTC
88 points
12 comments5 min readLW link

Abun­dance and scarcity; work­ing for­wards and work­ing backwards

Quinn18 Feb 2022 19:05 UTC
27 points
4 comments8 min readLW link

Books Wor­thy of Integration

Roven Skyfal20 Feb 2022 8:03 UTC
11 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

[Sur­vey] Ex­pec­ta­tions of a Post-ASI Order

Lone Pine9 Mar 2022 19:17 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Nu­clear Deter­rence 101 (and why the US can’t even hint at in­ter­ven­ing in Ukraine)

Darmani18 Mar 2022 7:25 UTC
36 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Ex­per­i­men­tal longter­mism: the­ory needs data

24 Mar 2022 8:23 UTC
50 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Science is Min­ing, not Foraging

Seb Farquhar3 Apr 2022 18:19 UTC
17 points
0 comments15 min readLW link

Pro­ject In­tro: Selec­tion The­o­rems for Modularity

4 Apr 2022 12:59 UTC
69 points
20 comments16 min readLW link

A para­dox of existence

Chris van Merwijk5 Apr 2022 9:45 UTC
27 points
27 comments5 min readLW link

The Zom­bie Ar­gu­ment for Empiricists

JonathanErhardt6 Apr 2022 19:10 UTC
5 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Set­ting the Brains Difficulty-Anchor

Johannes C. Mayer7 Apr 2022 5:04 UTC
2 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Find­ing Use­ful Things

Johannes C. Mayer7 Apr 2022 5:57 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Pre­dict­ing a global catas­tro­phe: the Ukrainian model

RomanS7 Apr 2022 12:06 UTC
5 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Book Re­view: A PhD is Not Enough

ljh27 Apr 2022 5:15 UTC
21 points
4 comments23 min readLW link

Hyper­bolic takeoff

Ege Erdil9 Apr 2022 15:57 UTC
17 points
8 comments10 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

[Question] How path-de­pen­dent are hu­man val­ues?

Ege Erdil15 Apr 2022 9:34 UTC
13 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What re­cent aca­demic ar­eas of study have a sam­ple size that is ‘too small’?

hatta_afiq16 Apr 2022 13:52 UTC
2 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Key ques­tions about ar­tifi­cial sen­tience: an opinionated guide

Robbo25 Apr 2022 12:09 UTC
45 points
31 comments18 min readLW link

Hard ev­i­dence that mild COVID cases fre­quently re­duce intelligence

trevor7 May 2022 5:55 UTC
4 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

[Linkpost] diffu­sion mag­ne­tizes man­i­folds (DALL-E 2 in­tu­ition build­ing)

Paul Bricman7 May 2022 11:01 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(paulbricman.com)

[Question] The Eco­nomics of a New En­ergy Source

hatta_afiq13 May 2022 14:08 UTC
2 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Inequal­ity is in­sep­a­rable from mar­kets

NathanBarnard14 May 2022 13:39 UTC
22 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Gato as the Dawn of Early AGI

David Udell15 May 2022 6:52 UTC
84 points
29 comments12 min readLW link

Fem­i­nism and Femininity

NathanBarnard18 May 2022 22:53 UTC
4 points
8 comments6 min readLW link

A dis­cus­sion of the pa­per, “Large Lan­guage Models are Zero-Shot Rea­son­ers”

HiroSakuraba26 May 2022 15:55 UTC
7 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] A ter­rify­ing var­i­ant of Boltz­mann’s brains problem

Zeruel01730 May 2022 20:08 UTC
5 points
12 comments4 min readLW link

The Fourth Arena: What’s Up in the world these days? We’re mov­ing to a new, a new what?

Bill Benzon4 Jun 2022 19:07 UTC
2 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

On The Spec­trum, On The Guest List: (iv) Silencio

party girl7 Jun 2022 15:39 UTC
5 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(onthespectrumontheguestlist.substack.com)

You Only Get One Shot: an In­tu­ition Pump for Embed­ded Agency

Oliver Sourbut9 Jun 2022 21:38 UTC
22 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

I No Longer Believe In­tel­li­gence to be “Mag­i­cal”

DragonGod10 Jun 2022 8:58 UTC
31 points
34 comments6 min readLW link

Break­ing Down Goal-Directed Behaviour

Oliver Sourbut16 Jun 2022 18:45 UTC
10 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

[Question] How Do You Quan­tify [Physics In­ter­fac­ing] Real World Ca­pa­bil­ities?

DragonGod14 Jun 2022 14:49 UTC
17 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

One sin­gle meme that makes you Less Wrong in general

trevor21 Jun 2022 20:29 UTC
−1 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Build­ing an Epistemic Sta­tus Tracker

rcu22 Jun 2022 18:57 UTC
6 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Poli­tics is the Mind Killer. But is it get­ting worse?

trevor22 Jun 2022 19:47 UTC
5 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

LessWrong Has Agree/​Disagree Vot­ing On All New Com­ment Threads

Ben Pace24 Jun 2022 0:43 UTC
140 points
215 comments2 min readLW link

Every­thing you need to know about UFOs (in 26 words)

trevor25 Jun 2022 18:04 UTC
−5 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

The Ba­sics of AGI Policy (Flowchart)

trevor26 Jun 2022 2:01 UTC
18 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Is Gen­eral In­tel­li­gence “Com­pact”?

DragonGod4 Jul 2022 13:27 UTC
21 points
6 comments22 min readLW link

A physi­cist’s ap­proach to Ori­gins of Life

pchvykov28 Jun 2022 15:23 UTC
11 points
6 comments16 min readLW link

Could an AI Align­ment Sand­box be use­ful?

Michael Soareverix2 Jul 2022 5:06 UTC
2 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

When is it ap­pro­pri­ate to use statis­ti­cal mod­els and prob­a­bil­ities for de­ci­sion mak­ing ?

Younes Kamel5 Jul 2022 12:34 UTC
10 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(youneskamel.substack.com)

How hu­man­ity would re­spond to slow take­off, with take­aways from the en­tire COVID-19 pan­demic

Noosphere896 Jul 2022 17:52 UTC
4 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Covid 7/​7/​22: Paxlovid at the Pharmacy

Zvi7 Jul 2022 14:30 UTC
34 points
11 comments12 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Gen­ders Discrimination

Jacob Falkovich7 Jul 2022 15:20 UTC
10 points
16 comments4 min readLW link

Re­in­force­ment Learner Wireheading

Nate Showell8 Jul 2022 5:32 UTC
8 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

In Search of Strate­gic Clarity

james.lucassen8 Jul 2022 0:52 UTC
8 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(jlucassen.com)

Un­bounded In­tel­li­gence Lottery

kman7 Jul 2022 23:28 UTC
4 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

We are now at the point of deep­fake job interviews

trevor10 Jul 2022 3:37 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.businessinsider.com)

Every­one is an Im­poster

Tharin13 Jul 2022 8:46 UTC
18 points
1 comment9 min readLW link
(echoesandchimes.com)

Covid 7/​14/​22: BA.2.75 Plus Tax

Zvi14 Jul 2022 14:40 UTC
39 points
9 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Cog­ni­tive In­sta­bil­ity, Phys­i­cal­ism, and Free Will

dadadarren16 Jul 2022 13:13 UTC
5 points
27 comments2 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Ars D&D.Sci: Mys­ter­ies of Mana Eval­u­a­tion & Ruleset

aphyer19 Jul 2022 2:06 UTC
29 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Are In­tel­li­gence and Gen­er­al­ity Orthog­o­nal?

cubefox18 Jul 2022 20:07 UTC
17 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 7/​21/​22: Fea­tur­ing ASPR

Zvi21 Jul 2022 13:50 UTC
27 points
0 comments14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Is Gas Green?

ChristianKl21 Jul 2022 10:30 UTC
18 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Guns, Gods and Genders

Ben Amitay21 Jul 2022 22:49 UTC
−12 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Mis­takes as agency

pchvykov25 Jul 2022 16:17 UTC
12 points
8 comments4 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-07-27

jasoncrawford27 Jul 2022 17:20 UTC
18 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] “Fa­nat­i­cal” Longter­mists: Why is Pas­cal’s Wager wrong?

Yitz27 Jul 2022 4:16 UTC
1 point
7 comments1 min readLW link

My take­aways from the EA In-depth 4th week dis­cus­sion: An­i­mal Welfare

Kriz Tahimic3 Aug 2022 18:31 UTC
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Covid 8/​4/​22: Rebound

Zvi4 Aug 2022 11:20 UTC
36 points
0 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Shard The­ory: An Overview

David Udell11 Aug 2022 5:44 UTC
135 points
34 comments10 min readLW link

Most Ivy-smart stu­dents aren’t at Ivy-tier schools

Aaron Bergman7 Aug 2022 3:18 UTC
85 points
7 comments8 min readLW link
(www.aaronbergman.net)

[Question] How would Log­i­cal De­ci­sion The­o­ries ad­dress the Psy­chopath But­ton?

Nathan11237 Aug 2022 15:19 UTC
5 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Do ad­vance­ments in De­ci­sion The­ory point to­wards moral ab­solutism?

Nathan112311 Aug 2022 0:59 UTC
0 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

The Host Minds of HBO’s West­world.

Nerret12 Aug 2022 18:53 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What are some good ar­gu­ments against build­ing new nu­clear power plants?

RomanS12 Aug 2022 7:32 UTC
16 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

How I think about alignment

Linda Linsefors13 Aug 2022 10:01 UTC
30 points
11 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What is an agent in re­duc­tion­ist ma­te­ri­al­ism?

Valentine13 Aug 2022 15:39 UTC
7 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Dwarves & D.Sci: Data Fortress Eval­u­a­tion & Ruleset

aphyer16 Aug 2022 0:15 UTC
23 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

The Open So­ciety and Its Ene­mies: Sum­mary and Thoughts

matto16 Aug 2022 11:44 UTC
9 points
4 comments17 min readLW link

So, I Want to Be a “Think­fluencer”

DragonGod20 Aug 2022 18:39 UTC
3 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] What are the Limits on Com­putabil­ity?

DragonGod20 Aug 2022 22:02 UTC
6 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Ad­ver­sar­ial epistemology

jchan24 Aug 2022 16:57 UTC
25 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

Please Do Fight the Hypothetical

Lone Pine29 Aug 2022 8:35 UTC
18 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

And the word was “God”

pchvykov30 Aug 2022 21:13 UTC
−22 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Pon­der­ing the paucity of vol­canic pro­fan­ity post Pom­peii perusal

CraigMichael1 Sep 2022 9:29 UTC
21 points
2 comments15 min readLW link

How to Do Re­search. v1

Pablo Repetto8 Sep 2022 1:08 UTC
27 points
4 comments41 min readLW link
(pabloernesto.github.io)

Turn­ing What­sApp Chat Data into Prompt-Re­sponse Form for Fine-Tuning

hatta_afiq8 Sep 2022 20:05 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

elifland9 Sep 2022 4:01 UTC
44 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

In­ter­pret­ing Afford­able Housing

jefftk9 Sep 2022 19:40 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Sim­ple proofs of the age of the uni­verse (or other things)

Astynax13 Sep 2022 18:20 UTC
16 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Dan Luu on Fu­tur­ist Predictions

RobertM14 Sep 2022 3:01 UTC
50 points
9 comments5 min readLW link
(danluu.com)

[Question] Fore­cast­ing thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?

elifland14 Sep 2022 23:56 UTC
33 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Ca­pa­bil­ity and Agency as Corner­stones of AI risk ­— My cur­rent model

wilm15 Sep 2022 8:25 UTC
10 points
4 comments12 min readLW link

[To Be Re­vised]Per­haps the Mean­ing of Life, An Ad­ven­ture in Plu­ral­is­tic Morality

NoBadCake18 Sep 2022 22:37 UTC
−5 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Some of the most im­por­tant en­trepreneur­ship skills are tacit knowledge

Ruhul20 Sep 2022 12:06 UTC
20 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Progress links and tweets, 2022-09-20

jasoncrawford20 Sep 2022 14:07 UTC
7 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

$13,000 of prizes for chang­ing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Think­ing Re­grants Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment)

spencerg20 Sep 2022 16:06 UTC
12 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(manifold.markets)

Trends in Train­ing Dataset Sizes

Pablo Villalobos21 Sep 2022 15:47 UTC
24 points
2 comments5 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

There’s One Thing Fu­tur­ists are Never Wrong About

Alex Beyman25 Sep 2022 19:41 UTC
−4 points
45 comments19 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­is­tic rea­son­ing for de­scrip­tion and experience

Q Home27 Sep 2022 10:57 UTC
0 points
0 comments26 min readLW link

Si­mu­lacra Levels in Literature

Miniman2 Oct 2022 21:13 UTC
1 point
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Linkpost] “In­ten­sity and fre­quency of ex­treme novel epi­demics” by Mar­i­ani et al. (2021)

Fer32dwt34r3dfsz28 Sep 2022 3:31 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Ge­or­gism in Space

harsimony28 Sep 2022 16:05 UTC
40 points
13 comments4 min readLW link
(harsimony.wordpress.com)

Covid 9/​29/​22: The Jones Act Waver

Zvi29 Sep 2022 18:20 UTC
47 points
10 comments24 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Should rea­son­ably healthy peo­ple still take Paxlovid?

Sameerishere29 Sep 2022 3:41 UTC
15 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Bet­ter Con­struc­tion Cost Es­ti­mates?

jefftk29 Sep 2022 2:30 UTC
12 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

His­tory of the the­ory of well-being

David Hartsough30 Sep 2022 10:08 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Do in­sects’ lives mat­ter?

Carn30 Sep 2022 15:38 UTC
0 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] In­ter­est­ing pre­dic­tions on man­i­fold.markets

jmh1 Oct 2022 16:09 UTC
6 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a cul­ture over­hang?

Aleksi Liimatainen3 Oct 2022 7:26 UTC
18 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Rus­sia will do a nu­clear test

sanxiyn4 Oct 2022 14:59 UTC
3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Ad­ver­sar­ial vs Col­lab­o­ra­tive Contexts

jefftk4 Oct 2022 2:40 UTC
31 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Lay­ers Of Mind

PeteG4 Oct 2022 16:52 UTC
−8 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Amer­i­can in­ven­tion from the “heroic age” to the sys­tem-build­ing era

jasoncrawford6 Oct 2022 17:19 UTC
13 points
1 comment10 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Against Ar­gu­ments For Exploitation

blackstampede6 Oct 2022 1:58 UTC
18 points
8 comments7 min readLW link

Analysing a 2036 Takeover Scenario

ukc100146 Oct 2022 20:48 UTC
8 points
2 comments27 min readLW link

[Question] Do un­cer­tainty/​plan­ning costs make con­vex hulls un­re­al­is­tic?

eapi6 Oct 2022 0:10 UTC
16 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an im­mi­nent global nu­clear war

Max Tegmark8 Oct 2022 6:26 UTC
171 points
169 comments4 min readLW link

Re­quired read­ing for un­der­stand­ing the cur­rent nu­clear standoff

trevor8 Oct 2022 20:46 UTC
4 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

What if hu­man rea­son­ing is anti-in­duc­tive?

Q Home11 Oct 2022 5:15 UTC
1 point
2 comments13 min readLW link

Did you en­joy Ramez Naam’s “Nexus” tril­ogy? Check out this in­ter­view on neu­rotech and the law.

fowlertm11 Oct 2022 11:10 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Sketch] Val­idity Cri­te­rion for Log­i­cal Counterfactuals

DragonGod11 Oct 2022 13:31 UTC
6 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] How much does the risk of dy­ing from nu­clear war differ within and be­tween coun­tries?

amarai11 Oct 2022 11:55 UTC
4 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

What “The Mes­sage” Was For Me

Alex Beyman11 Oct 2022 8:08 UTC
−3 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

some simu­la­tion hypotheses

Tamsin Leake12 Oct 2022 13:34 UTC
13 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(carado.moe)

Ab­bots Brom­ley Horn Dance History

jefftk12 Oct 2022 2:10 UTC
11 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

That one apoc­a­lyp­tic nu­clear famine pa­per is bunk

Lao Mein12 Oct 2022 3:33 UTC
102 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Ac­tu­ally, All Nu­clear Famine Papers are Bunk

Lao Mein12 Oct 2022 5:58 UTC
104 points
34 comments2 min readLW link

A stub­born un­be­liever fi­nally gets the depth of the AI al­ign­ment problem

aelwood13 Oct 2022 15:16 UTC
17 points
8 comments3 min readLW link
(pursuingreality.substack.com)

Against the nor­ma­tive re­al­ist’s wager

Joe Carlsmith13 Oct 2022 16:35 UTC
16 points
9 comments23 min readLW link

[Question] How much of China’s Zero COVID policy is ac­tu­ally about COVID?

jmh14 Oct 2022 7:23 UTC
9 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches the ‘Fore­cast­ing Our World In Data’ Pro­ject to Probe the Long-Term Future

ChristianWilliams14 Oct 2022 17:00 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

The Space Between Moments

Alex Beyman14 Oct 2022 23:34 UTC
7 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

Bounded dis­trust or Bounded trust?

M. Y. Zuo15 Oct 2022 16:41 UTC
2 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Life, Death, and Fi­nance in the Cos­mic Mul­ti­verse

peterb16 Oct 2022 18:57 UTC
−4 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] If I asked for an ex­pla­na­tion of a perfect Utopia, could you give one?

Akkira19 Oct 2022 17:56 UTC
−4 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Tra­jec­to­ries to 2036

ukc1001420 Oct 2022 20:23 UTC
1 point
1 comment14 min readLW link

The high­est-prob­a­bil­ity out­come can be out of distribution

tailcalled22 Oct 2022 20:00 UTC
13 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] When try­ing to define gen­eral in­tel­li­gence is abil­ity to achieve goals the best met­ric?

jmh22 Oct 2022 3:09 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Crypto loves im­pact mar­kets: Notes from Schel­ling Point Bogotá

Rachel Shu22 Oct 2022 15:58 UTC
12 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Do we have the right kind of math for roles, goals and mean­ing?

mrcbarbier22 Oct 2022 21:28 UTC
12 points
1 comment7 min readLW link

A ba­sic lex­i­con of telic concepts

mrcbarbier22 Oct 2022 21:28 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readLW link

Trans­lated tran­scripts of Putin’s ma­jor speeches from Oct 27, 2022

trevor28 Oct 2022 3:40 UTC
28 points
10 comments13 min readLW link
(en.kremlin.ru)

Method of state­ments: an al­ter­na­tive to taboo

Q Home16 Nov 2022 10:57 UTC
7 points
0 comments41 min readLW link

Syncretism

Annapurna28 Oct 2022 16:08 UTC
16 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(jorgevelez.substack.com)

Hu­mans do acausal co­or­di­na­tion all the time

Adam Jermyn2 Nov 2022 14:40 UTC
51 points
36 comments3 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Mar­kets 2: Op­ti­mally Shaped Re­ward Bets

eva_3 Nov 2022 11:08 UTC
9 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Cross-Void Optimization

pneumynym4 Nov 2022 17:47 UTC
−5 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

In­stead of tech­ni­cal re­search, more peo­ple should fo­cus on buy­ing time

5 Nov 2022 20:43 UTC
80 points
51 comments14 min readLW link

Un­pri­ca­ble In­for­ma­tion and Cer­tifi­cate Hell

eva_5 Nov 2022 22:56 UTC
12 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Has Pas­cal’s Mug­ging prob­lem been com­pletely solved yet?

EniScien6 Nov 2022 12:52 UTC
3 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

The sky is not blue (par­don the ob­vi­ous­ness)

banev13 Nov 2022 10:49 UTC
−13 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

The Fu­til­ity of Sta­tus and Signalling

Ape in the coat13 Nov 2022 17:14 UTC
17 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Fic­tion: The Tale of XDer—In­tro -

Lil Xander17 Nov 2022 16:47 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

The Echo Principle

Jonathan Moregård16 Nov 2022 20:09 UTC
5 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(honestliving.substack.com)

Care­fully-ed­ited Tran­script of Trump’s Nov 15th Cam­paign Announcement

trevor16 Nov 2022 20:11 UTC
0 points
8 comments32 min readLW link

Cog­ni­tive sci­ence and failed AI fore­casts

Eleni Angelou24 Nov 2022 21:02 UTC
0 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is Ger­man ra­tio­nal­ity more memet­i­cally de­rived from the west or former east?

trevor21 Nov 2022 5:35 UTC
3 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Mo­ti­vated Cog­ni­tion and the Mul­ti­verse of Truth

Q Home22 Nov 2022 12:51 UTC
8 points
12 comments24 min readLW link

[Question] How does late-2022 COVID trans­mis­si­bil­ity drop over time?

Daniel Dewey22 Nov 2022 19:54 UTC
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Feel­ing Old: Leav­ing your 20s in the 2020s

squidious22 Nov 2022 22:50 UTC
37 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(opalsandbonobos.blogspot.com)

Against a Gen­eral Fac­tor of Doom

Jeffrey Heninger23 Nov 2022 16:50 UTC
56 points
18 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

The man and the tool

pedroalvarado25 Nov 2022 19:51 UTC
1 point
0 comments4 min readLW link

In­tu­itions by ML re­searchers may get pro­gres­sively worse con­cern­ing likely can­di­dates for trans­for­ma­tive AI

Viktor Rehnberg25 Nov 2022 15:49 UTC
7 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

New Fron­tiers in Mojibake

Adam Scherlis26 Nov 2022 2:37 UTC
60 points
6 comments6 min readLW link
(adam.scherlis.com)

Wired Magaz­ine prints mis­in­for­ma­tion about AI safety

trevor1 Dec 2022 3:39 UTC
2 points
6 comments4 min readLW link
(www.wired.com)

De­con­fus­ing Direct vs Amor­tised Optimization

beren2 Dec 2022 11:30 UTC
48 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

Chat GPT’s views on Me­ta­physics and Ethics

Cole Killian3 Dec 2022 18:12 UTC
5 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(twitter.com)

AGI as a Black Swan Event

Stephen McAleese4 Dec 2022 23:00 UTC
8 points
8 comments7 min readLW link

Covid 12/​8/​22: Another Win­ter Wave

Zvi8 Dec 2022 14:40 UTC
23 points
8 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The Story Of VaccinateCA

hath9 Dec 2022 23:54 UTC
93 points
4 comments10 min readLW link
(www.worksinprogress.co)

Trade­offs in com­plex­ity, ab­strac­tion, and generality

12 Dec 2022 15:55 UTC
27 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

An ex­plo­ra­tion of GPT-2′s em­bed­ding weights

Adam Scherlis13 Dec 2022 0:46 UTC
26 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

Kol­mogorov Com­plex­ity and Si­mu­la­tion Hypothesis

False Name14 Dec 2022 22:01 UTC
−1 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Reflec­tions: Bureau­cratic Hell

Haris Rashid20 Dec 2022 19:22 UTC
−5 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.harisrab.com)

AGI is here, but no­body wants it. Why should we even care?

MGow20 Dec 2022 19:14 UTC
−20 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

How Death Feels

sisyphus18 Dec 2022 23:47 UTC
−12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­lifer­at­ing Education

Haris Rashid20 Dec 2022 19:22 UTC
−1 points
2 comments5 min readLW link
(www.harisrab.com)

AGI Timelines in Gover­nance: Differ­ent Strate­gies for Differ­ent Timeframes

19 Dec 2022 21:31 UTC
47 points
14 comments10 min readLW link

Prop­er­ties of cur­rent AIs and some pre­dic­tions of the evolu­tion of AI from the per­spec­tive of scale-free the­o­ries of agency and reg­u­la­tive development

Roman Leventov20 Dec 2022 17:13 UTC
7 points
0 comments36 min readLW link

The Aver­a­ge­ness of The Internet

louis03019520 Dec 2022 6:32 UTC
−9 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(brain.louis030195.com)
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