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World Modeling

Core TagLast edit: 19 Aug 2020 19:26 UTC by Ruby

World Modeling is getting curious about how the world works. It’s diving into wikipedia, it’s running a survey to get data from your friends, it’s dropping balls from different heights and measuring how long they take to fall. Empiricism, scholarship, googling, introspection, data-gathering, science. Applying your epistemology and curiosity, finding out how the damn thing works, and writing it down for the rest of us.

The eleventh virtue is scholarship. Study many sciences and absorb their power as your own. Each field that you consume makes you larger. If you swallow enough sciences the gaps between them will diminish and your knowledge will become a unified whole. If you are gluttonous you will become vaster than mountains.

-- Twelve Virtues of Rationality


World Modeling Sub-Topics

Mathematical Sciences

Abstraction
Anthropics
Category Theory
Causality
Game Theory
Decision Theory
Information Theory
Logic & Mathematics
Probability & Statistics

Specifics
Prisoner’s Dilemma

General Science & Eng

Machine Learning
Nanotechnology
Physics
Programming
Space Exploration & Colonization

Specifics
The Great Filter

Meta /​ Misc

Academic Papers
Book Reviews
Distillation & Pedagogy
Fact Posts
Research Agendas
Scholarship & Learning

Social & Economic

Economics
Financial Investing
History
Politics
Progress Studies
Social and Cultural Dynamics

Specifics
Conflict vs Mistake Theory
Cost Disease
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Industrial Revolution
Moral Mazes
Signaling
Social Reality
Social Status

Biological & Psychological

Aging
Biology
Consciousness
Evolution
Evolutionary Psychology
Medicine
Neuroscience
Qualia

Specifics
Coronavirus
General Intelligence
IQ /​ g-factor
Neocortex

The Practice of Modeling

Epistemic Review
Expertise
Gears-Level Models
Falsifiability
Forecasting & Prediction
Forecasts (Lists of)
Inside/​Outside View
Jargon (meta)
Practice and Philosophy of Science
Prediction Markets
Reductionism
Replicability

A definition by elimination

Properly considered, the overwhelming majority of content LessWrong is about modeling how the world is, including almost all posts on Rationality and all practical advice. The intended usage of World Modeling is to capture all content describing how the world is that is not captured by the more specific major tags of Rationality, World Optimization, and AI.

If content warrants a no to all of the above questions, then it is likely to be both relatively pure world modeling (not about optimizing in any direct way) and not already covered by an existing major category. It is then a good fit for the World Modeling category. Stuff like math, science, history

Some more examples

A study of how people historically exercised is World Modeling. Advice on the optimal way to exercise in the present day is World Optimization. A study of the Fall of Rome would be World Modeling. A review of current policies being discussed by people who want to cause changes in a present government should be classified as Optimization. It would be World Modeling too only if it is expected to be of interest to people with no immediate plans to try to alter government, for example a review on the effects of marijuana on productivity, driving, IQ, etc.

A Crash Course in the Neu­ro­science of Hu­man Motivation

lukeprog19 Aug 2011 21:15 UTC
175 points
91 comments38 min readLW link

Quan­tum Explanations

Eliezer Yudkowsky9 Apr 2008 8:15 UTC
64 points
58 comments6 min readLW link

Monopoly: A Man­i­festo and Fact Post

sarahconstantin31 May 2018 18:40 UTC
33 points
65 comments5 min readLW link
(srconstantin.wordpress.com)

Dis­con­tin­u­ous progress in his­tory: an update

KatjaGrace14 Apr 2020 0:00 UTC
163 points
23 comments31 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Fact Posts: How and Why

sarahconstantin2 Dec 2016 18:55 UTC
182 points
32 comments3 min readLW link

Why “Chang­ing the World” is a Hor­rible Phrase

ozziegooen25 Dec 2014 6:04 UTC
38 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

Co­or­di­na­tion Prob­lems in Evolu­tion: Ei­gen’s Paradox

Martin Sustrik12 Oct 2018 12:40 UTC
96 points
6 comments8 min readLW link
(250bpm.com)

In­sights from Eu­clid’s ‘Ele­ments’

TurnTrout4 May 2020 15:45 UTC
118 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

Liter­a­ture Re­view For Aca­demic Out­siders: What, How, and Why

namespace9 May 2020 22:58 UTC
160 points
5 comments15 min readLW link
(www.thelastrationalist.com)

Trans­porta­tion as a Constraint

johnswentworth6 Apr 2020 4:58 UTC
143 points
25 comments6 min readLW link

Tech­nol­ogy Changes Constraints

johnswentworth25 Jan 2020 23:13 UTC
85 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Con­cep­tual en­g­ineer­ing: the rev­olu­tion in philos­o­phy you’ve never heard of

Suspended Reason2 Jun 2020 18:30 UTC
115 points
45 comments21 min readLW link

“Win First” vs “Chill First”

lionhearted28 Sep 2020 6:48 UTC
71 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling

Zvi6 Jan 2021 18:30 UTC
107 points
22 comments14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

How to Mea­sure Anything

lukeprog7 Aug 2013 4:05 UTC
92 points
52 comments22 min readLW link

Si­mu­lacra Levels and their Interactions

Zvi15 Jun 2020 13:10 UTC
153 points
46 comments17 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Covid 12/​24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over

Zvi24 Dec 2020 15:10 UTC
304 points
137 comments30 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

What failure looks like

paulfchristiano17 Mar 2019 20:18 UTC
240 points
48 comments8 min readLW link2 nominations2 reviews

In Defense of Politics

ChristianKl10 Apr 2020 19:26 UTC
14 points
23 comments7 min readLW link

Paper-Read­ing for Gears

johnswentworth4 Dec 2019 21:02 UTC
127 points
6 comments4 min readLW link2 nominations1 review

A non-mys­ti­cal ex­pla­na­tion of in­sight med­i­ta­tion and the three char­ac­ter­is­tics of ex­is­tence: in­tro­duc­tion and preamble

Kaj_Sotala5 May 2020 19:09 UTC
95 points
36 comments12 min readLW link

Six eco­nomics mis­con­cep­tions of mine which I’ve re­solved over the last few years

Buck13 Jul 2020 3:01 UTC
143 points
53 comments9 min readLW link

Spaghetti Towers

eukaryote22 Dec 2018 5:29 UTC
120 points
24 comments3 min readLW link
(eukaryotewritesblog.com)

Repli­ca­tion Dy­nam­ics Bridge to RL in Ther­mo­dy­namic Limit

Zachary Robertson18 May 2020 1:02 UTC
6 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

We’ve built Con­nected Papers—a vi­sual tool for re­searchers to find and ex­plore aca­demic papers

discordy8 Jun 2020 18:44 UTC
173 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

How to an­a­lyze progress, stag­na­tion, and low-hang­ing fruit

jasoncrawford15 Jun 2020 21:02 UTC
40 points
9 comments4 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Model­ling Con­tin­u­ous Progress

SDM23 Jun 2020 18:06 UTC
29 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] What could one do with truly un­limited com­pu­ta­tional power?

Yitz11 Nov 2020 10:03 UTC
29 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

Dark Matters

Diffractor14 Mar 2021 23:36 UTC
200 points
22 comments15 min readLW link

The His­tory of Color in Chinese

lsusr12 Apr 2020 4:05 UTC
30 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.lsusr.com)

Con­sid­er­a­tions On Cost Disease

Scott Alexander10 Feb 2017 4:33 UTC
27 points
4 comments22 min readLW link

Every sys­tem seems ran­dom from the inside

eapache19 Apr 2020 23:02 UTC
11 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

So­lar sys­tem colon­i­sa­tion might not be driven by economics

Stuart_Armstrong21 Apr 2020 17:10 UTC
26 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

The Best Text­books on Every Subject

lukeprog16 Jan 2011 8:30 UTC
424 points
373 comments7 min readLW link

Sex, Lies, and Canaanites

Jacob Falkovich23 Apr 2020 16:26 UTC
16 points
2 comments14 min readLW link

Me­la­tonin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott Alexander11 Jul 2018 17:40 UTC
94 points
16 comments15 min readLW link
(slatestarcodex.com)

Writ­ing Causal Models Like We Write Programs

johnswentworth5 May 2020 18:05 UTC
59 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

English Bread Regulations

jefftk18 May 2020 13:20 UTC
17 points
10 comments6 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Point­ing to a Flower

johnswentworth18 May 2020 18:54 UTC
54 points
18 comments9 min readLW link

What a 20-year-lead in mil­i­tary tech might look like

Daniel Kokotajlo29 Jul 2020 20:10 UTC
62 points
44 comments16 min readLW link

My pa­per was sig­nal­ling the whole time—Robin Han­son wins again

rockthecasbah4 Aug 2020 21:13 UTC
49 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are some low-in­for­ma­tion pri­ors that you find prac­ti­cally use­ful for think­ing about the world?

Linch7 Aug 2020 4:37 UTC
27 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Are Amer­i­cans Be­com­ing More De­pressed?

calebo7 Aug 2020 15:57 UTC
26 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Out­come Ter­minol­ogy?

Dach14 Sep 2020 18:04 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Large Effects Can’t Prove Small Causes

Bucky6 Oct 2020 17:34 UTC
23 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

No Cau­sa­tion with­out Reification

G Gordon Worley III23 Oct 2020 20:28 UTC
21 points
38 comments3 min readLW link

How do you read the news crit­i­cally?

ChristianKl31 Oct 2020 11:48 UTC
39 points
15 comments9 min readLW link

Open Prob­lems Create Paradigms

johnswentworth9 Nov 2020 20:04 UTC
49 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Model Depth as Panacea and Obfuscator

abstractapplic9 Nov 2020 0:02 UTC
8 points
3 comments15 min readLW link

The Power of Annealing

meanderingmoose14 Dec 2020 11:02 UTC
20 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Tech­nolog­i­cal stag­na­tion: Why I came around

jasoncrawford23 Jan 2021 22:05 UTC
156 points
73 comments8 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] What are some real life Inad­e­quate Equil­ibria?

Eli Tyre29 Jan 2021 12:17 UTC
44 points
61 comments3 min readLW link

Clar­ifi­ca­tions on tech stagnation

jasoncrawford31 Jan 2021 0:59 UTC
20 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Eco­nomic Class

lsusr2 Mar 2021 1:58 UTC
23 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

How To Think About Over­pa­ram­e­ter­ized Models

johnswentworth3 Mar 2021 22:29 UTC
40 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

I’m still mys­tified by the Born rule

So8res4 Mar 2021 2:35 UTC
74 points
42 comments10 min readLW link

Gossip

Yoav Ravid21 Mar 2021 13:36 UTC
12 points
6 comments11 min readLW link

The best fre­quently don’t rise to the top

adamzerner25 Mar 2021 6:10 UTC
31 points
34 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Have epistemic con­di­tions always been this bad?

Wei_Dai25 Jan 2020 4:42 UTC
165 points
105 comments4 min readLW link

An ex­tra way to gain from mul­ti­verse-wide cooperation

Sublation11 Apr 2020 14:50 UTC
6 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Mar­ijuana: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott Alexander5 Jan 2014 20:41 UTC
16 points
0 comments19 min readLW link

[Question] What are your fa­vorite ex­am­ples of dis­til­la­tion?

NaiveTortoise25 Apr 2020 17:06 UTC
49 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Juke­box: how to up­date from AI imi­tat­ing hu­mans?

Michaël Trazzi30 Apr 2020 20:50 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

SlateS­tarCodex 2020 Pre­dic­tions: Buy, Sell, Hold

Zvi1 May 2020 14:30 UTC
53 points
15 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The Tails Com­ing Apart As Me­taphor For Life

Scott Alexander25 Sep 2018 19:10 UTC
118 points
35 comments7 min readLW link
(slatestarcodex.com)

In­tro­duc­tion to In­tro­duc­tion to Cat­e­gory Theory

countedblessings6 Oct 2019 14:43 UTC
103 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

A Prob­lem With Patternism

Bob Jacobs19 May 2020 20:16 UTC
5 points
52 comments1 min readLW link

Im­mor­tal­ity: A Prac­ti­cal Guide

G0W5126 Jan 2015 16:17 UTC
49 points
61 comments37 min readLW link

Every­day Les­sons from High-Di­men­sional Optimization

johnswentworth6 Jun 2020 20:57 UTC
129 points
33 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] By what met­ric do you judge a refer­ence class?

Bob Jacobs15 Jun 2020 18:34 UTC
7 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Me­di­a­tors of History

johnswentworth27 Jun 2020 19:55 UTC
25 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

The Se­cond Law of Ther­mo­dy­nam­ics, and Eng­ines of Cognition

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 Feb 2008 0:48 UTC
103 points
69 comments9 min readLW link

The Equa­tion of Knowledge

Lê Nguyên Hoang7 Jul 2020 16:09 UTC
57 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Gödel In­com­plete­ness: For Dummies

jollybard12 Jul 2020 9:13 UTC
8 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Life Through Quan­tum An­neal­ing: How a quan­tum com­put­ing tech­nique could shape existence

ChrisM13 Jul 2020 22:48 UTC
2 points
1 comment16 min readLW link

Swiss Poli­ti­cal Sys­tem: More than You ever Wanted to Know (I.)

Martin Sustrik19 Jul 2020 1:11 UTC
140 points
28 comments24 min readLW link

A Model of On­tolog­i­cal Development

G Gordon Worley III31 Dec 2020 1:55 UTC
22 points
0 comments24 min readLW link

“Go west, young man!”—Prefer­ences in (im­perfect) maps

Stuart_Armstrong31 Jul 2020 7:50 UTC
21 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

In praise of fake frameworks

Valentine11 Jul 2017 2:12 UTC
74 points
14 comments7 min readLW link

Sapiens

Vaniver8 Apr 2015 2:56 UTC
64 points
12 comments13 min readLW link

So­cial Interfaces

thoughtfulmadison9 Aug 2020 18:13 UTC
14 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Swiss Poli­ti­cal Sys­tem: More than You ever Wanted to Know (III.)

Martin Sustrik11 Aug 2020 5:09 UTC
62 points
5 comments22 min readLW link

Moloch and multi-level selection

thoughtfulmadison11 Aug 2020 7:08 UTC
19 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Sta­tus for sta­tus sake is a fact of poli­ti­cal life

rockthecasbah18 Aug 2020 22:06 UTC
10 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Em­pa­thetic vs In­trin­sic Oof

Ronny24 Aug 2020 0:12 UTC
2 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Changes in Reality

eapache7 Sep 2020 16:18 UTC
5 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

A Toy Model of Hingeyness

Bob Jacobs7 Sep 2020 17:38 UTC
16 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

The Short Case for Verificationism

ike11 Sep 2020 18:48 UTC
5 points
58 comments1 min readLW link

God in the Loop: How a Causal Loop Could Shape Existence

ChrisM15 Sep 2020 14:40 UTC
1 point
4 comments17 min readLW link

[Question] What is com­plex­ity sci­ence? (Not com­pu­ta­tional com­plex­ity the­ory) How use­ful is it? What ar­eas is it re­lated to?

philip_b26 Sep 2020 9:15 UTC
5 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

The Felt Sense: What, Why and How

Kaj_Sotala5 Oct 2020 15:57 UTC
118 points
21 comments14 min readLW link

[Question] Inac­cessible finely tuned RNG in hu­mans?

Sandi7 Oct 2020 17:04 UTC
22 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Effec­tive Epidemiology

Mike Harris22 Oct 2020 19:45 UTC
25 points
13 comments9 min readLW link

The Power & Tragedy of Names

SocratesDissatisfied6 Nov 2020 22:50 UTC
12 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

How long does it take to be­come Gaus­sian?

Maxwell Peterson8 Dec 2020 7:23 UTC
123 points
36 comments4 min readLW link

D&D.Sci Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

abstractapplic12 Dec 2020 15:00 UTC
36 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Would the Real Econ­omy Please Stand Up

eapache28 Dec 2020 14:05 UTC
22 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Evolu­tions Build­ing Evolu­tions: Lay­ers of Gen­er­ate and Test

plex5 Feb 2021 18:21 UTC
11 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

How my school gamed the stats

Srdjan Miletic20 Feb 2021 19:23 UTC
75 points
26 comments4 min readLW link

What is the VIX?

Annapurna26 Feb 2021 1:05 UTC
21 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­gres­sive avant-gardes

ForensicOceanography1 Mar 2021 11:19 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

We should not raise awareness

lsusr1 Mar 2021 8:46 UTC
28 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

D&D.Sci III: Mancer Matchups

abstractapplic5 Mar 2021 19:07 UTC
18 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

Un­con­ve­nient con­se­quences of the logic be­hind the sec­ond law of thermodynamics

Marco Discendenti7 Mar 2021 18:14 UTC
9 points
45 comments2 min readLW link

Many meth­ods of causal in­fer­ence try to iden­tify a “safe” sub­set of variation

tailcalled30 Mar 2021 14:36 UTC
12 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] What are the Nth Order Effects of the Coron­avirus?

Yoav Ravid7 Apr 2020 13:55 UTC
8 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What should I study to un­der­stand real-world eco­nomics? (I.e., To gain fi­nan­cial liter­acy)

Rudi C8 Apr 2020 19:22 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Prob­lems with p-values

lifelonglearner8 Apr 2020 0:58 UTC
10 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(mlu.red)

The Ori­gin of Con­scious­ness Read­ing Com­pan­ion, Part 1

Jacob Falkovich6 Apr 2020 22:07 UTC
21 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

Would 2014-2016 Ebola ring the alarm bell?

AllAmericanBreakfast8 Apr 2020 2:01 UTC
16 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

On R0

Zvi7 Apr 2020 23:20 UTC
63 points
6 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Link Ret­ro­spec­tive for 2020 Q1

mraxilus8 Apr 2020 12:38 UTC
10 points
4 comments7 min readLW link
(write.as)

Would 2009 H1N1 (Swine Flu) ring the alarm bell?

AllAmericanBreakfast7 Apr 2020 7:16 UTC
32 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

Assess­ing Kurzweil’s 1999 pre­dic­tions for 2019

Stuart_Armstrong8 Apr 2020 14:27 UTC
36 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Test­ing and con­tact trac­ing im­pact as­sess­ment model?

JustinShovelain9 Apr 2020 17:42 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

The One Mis­take Rule

Zvi10 Apr 2020 14:50 UTC
42 points
15 comments2 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

How to eval­u­ate (50%) predictions

Rafael Harth10 Apr 2020 17:12 UTC
118 points
48 comments9 min readLW link

Cu­ri­os­ity: A Greedy Feeling

AllAmericanBreakfast11 Apr 2020 4:38 UTC
39 points
7 comments10 min readLW link

Law school taught me nothing

ketchupduck11 Apr 2020 14:30 UTC
22 points
13 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] How should we model com­plex sys­tems?

OxDoc12 Apr 2020 21:23 UTC
17 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Are there any nat­u­rally oc­cur­ring heat pumps?

FactorialCode13 Apr 2020 5:24 UTC
14 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion cas­cades in sci­en­tific practice

RichardKennaway29 Jul 2009 12:08 UTC
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­ma­ture death paradox

bfinn13 Apr 2020 23:15 UTC
8 points
21 comments3 min readLW link

Math­e­mat­i­cal In­tu­ition­ism and the Flow of Time

Polytopos14 Apr 2020 0:25 UTC
9 points
5 comments6 min readLW link

The World Ac­cord­ing to Do­minic Cummings

Chris_Leong14 Apr 2020 5:05 UTC
49 points
10 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Is this vi­able physics?

Daniel Kokotajlo14 Apr 2020 19:29 UTC
59 points
26 comments1 min readLW link

No­body does the thing that they are sup­pos­edly doing

Kaj_Sotala23 Sep 2017 10:40 UTC
52 points
6 comments2 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Noise Simplifies

johnswentworth15 Apr 2020 19:48 UTC
24 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

In­te­grat­ing Hid­den Vari­ables Im­proves Approximation

johnswentworth16 Apr 2020 21:43 UTC
15 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Treat­ments cor­re­lated with harm

Connor_Flexman16 Apr 2020 21:02 UTC
37 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How much mo­ti­va­tion do you de­rive from cu­ri­os­ity alone in your work/​re­search?

NaiveTortoise17 Apr 2020 14:04 UTC
25 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Bet­ter name for “Heavy-tailed­ness of the world?”

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Apr 2020 20:50 UTC
28 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

What Hap­pens Dur­ing a Recession

Elizabeth20 Apr 2020 3:03 UTC
49 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What are the ex­ter­nal­ities of pre­dic­tions on wars?

Mati_Roy20 Apr 2020 17:37 UTC
6 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Link Sum­mary: Top 10 Repli­cated Find­ings from Be­hav­ioral Genetics

ErickBall19 Apr 2020 1:32 UTC
15 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Web Au­dio Echo?

jefftk19 Apr 2020 2:30 UTC
8 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

In­tu­itions on Univer­sal Be­hav­ior of In­for­ma­tion at a Distance

johnswentworth20 Apr 2020 21:44 UTC
18 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

De­scrip­tion vs simu­lated prediction

Richard Korzekwa 22 Apr 2020 16:40 UTC
26 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

In­ner al­ign­ment in the brain

Steven Byrnes22 Apr 2020 13:14 UTC
74 points
16 comments15 min readLW link

Last chance for as­sess­ing Kurzweil

Stuart_Armstrong22 Apr 2020 11:51 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

What’s Hard About Long Tails?

johnswentworth23 Apr 2020 16:32 UTC
24 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

Mo­du­lar em­piri­cal science

yhoiseth23 Apr 2020 11:22 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(yngve.hoiseth.net)

[Question] Do you trust the re­search on hand­writ­ing vs. typ­ing for notes?

NaiveTortoise23 Apr 2020 20:49 UTC
25 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

Player vs. Char­ac­ter: A Two-Level Model of Ethics

sarahconstantin14 Dec 2018 19:40 UTC
73 points
26 comments7 min readLW link
(srconstantin.wordpress.com)

The Ineffi­cient Mar­ket Hypothesis

lsusr24 Apr 2020 7:33 UTC
65 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

Teach­ers: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott Alexander19 May 2016 6:13 UTC
7 points
2 comments22 min readLW link

Wheat: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott Alexander31 Mar 2014 0:26 UTC
10 points
1 comment17 min readLW link

Kin­der­garten in NYC: Much More than You Wanted to Know

Laura B9 Dec 2018 15:36 UTC
36 points
1 comment11 min readLW link

Autism And In­tel­li­gence: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott Alexander14 Nov 2019 5:30 UTC
65 points
11 comments7 min readLW link2 nominations1 review
(slatestarcodex.com)

SSRIs: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Scott Alexander8 Jul 2014 2:06 UTC
12 points
0 comments27 min readLW link

Origi­nal Re­search on Less Wrong

lukeprog29 Oct 2012 22:50 UTC
39 points
47 comments12 min readLW link

Fast Take­off in Biolog­i­cal Intelligence

eapache25 Apr 2020 12:21 UTC
14 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

What truths are worth seek­ing?

Natália Mendonça27 Apr 2020 1:06 UTC
11 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Ma­chine Learn­ing Anal­ogy for Med­i­ta­tion (illus­trated)

abramdemski28 Jun 2018 22:51 UTC
85 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

UAP and Global Catas­trophic Risks

avturchin28 Apr 2020 13:07 UTC
7 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Mark Eichen­laub: How to de­velop sci­en­tific intuition

Kaj_Sotala23 Oct 2018 13:30 UTC
74 points
6 comments8 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Face­book AI: A state-of-the-art open source chatbot

FactorialCode29 Apr 2020 17:21 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(ai.facebook.com)

I do not like math

lsusr29 Apr 2020 11:27 UTC
33 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2020

NunoSempere30 Apr 2020 16:41 UTC
22 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Against strong bayesianism

Richard_Ngo30 Apr 2020 10:48 UTC
54 points
65 comments6 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Effi­cient Mar­kets and Academia

johnswentworth30 Apr 2020 21:59 UTC
45 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

FLI Pod­cast: On Su­perfore­cast­ing with Robert de Neufville

Palus Astra30 Apr 2020 23:08 UTC
6 points
0 comments52 min readLW link

Topolog­i­cal meta­physics: re­lat­ing point-set topol­ogy and lo­cale theory

jessicata1 May 2020 3:57 UTC
12 points
6 comments3 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

In­ter­view with Aubrey de Grey, chief sci­ence officer of the SENS Re­search Foundation

emanuele ascani1 May 2020 9:04 UTC
12 points
7 comments14 min readLW link

[Question] Value of build­ing an on­line “knowl­edge web”

Joe Kwon1 May 2020 4:31 UTC
2 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

2020 predictions

Bucky1 May 2020 20:11 UTC
11 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

Stop say­ing wrong things

lc1 May 2020 20:50 UTC
68 points
34 comments6 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Narconomics

ketchupduck3 May 2020 1:19 UTC
67 points
11 comments7 min readLW link

Biolog­i­cal evolu­tion as an anal­ogy for the mar­ket economy

Snorkelfarsan3 May 2020 18:51 UTC
6 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

How uniform is the neo­cor­tex?

zhukeepa4 May 2020 2:16 UTC
70 points
22 comments11 min readLW link

Con­struc­tive Definitions

Chris_Leong4 May 2020 23:50 UTC
15 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

“AI and Effi­ciency”, OA (44✕ im­prove­ment in CNNs since 2012)

gwern5 May 2020 16:32 UTC
47 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(openai.com)

Assess­ing Kurzweil pre­dic­tions about 2019: the results

Stuart_Armstrong6 May 2020 13:36 UTC
135 points
18 comments4 min readLW link

Maths writer/​cowrit­ter needed: how you can’t dis­t­in­guish early ex­po­nen­tial from early sigmoid

Stuart_Armstrong6 May 2020 9:41 UTC
39 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How to quan­tify un­cer­tainty about a prob­a­bil­ity es­ti­mate?

Michael Chen6 May 2020 12:06 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­tion to fore­cast­ing work­sheet

edoarad6 May 2020 13:54 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.foretold.io)

[Question] Tips/​tricks/​notes on op­ti­miz­ing investments

Wei_Dai6 May 2020 23:21 UTC
88 points
66 comments1 min readLW link

[link] How many hu­mans will have their brain pre­served? Fore­casts and trends

Mati_Roy7 May 2020 6:11 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tions’ in­di­vi­d­ual scores

Stuart_Armstrong7 May 2020 17:10 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Covid-19 5/​7: Fight­ing Limbo

Zvi7 May 2020 19:00 UTC
27 points
7 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Failures in tech­nol­ogy fore­cast­ing? A re­ply to Ord and Yudkowsky

MichaelA8 May 2020 12:41 UTC
44 points
19 comments11 min readLW link

[Question] Is there any sci­en­tific ev­i­dence for benefits of med­i­ta­tion?

CheerfulWarrior9 May 2020 8:53 UTC
12 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are ex­am­ples of peren­nial dis­cov­er­ies?

Mati_Roy9 May 2020 6:17 UTC
10 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­ject Pro­posal: Gears of Aging

johnswentworth9 May 2020 18:47 UTC
57 points
38 comments7 min readLW link

There is a war.

Benquo24 May 2018 6:44 UTC
39 points
31 comments14 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

Really Fresh Baking

jefftk10 May 2020 11:40 UTC
26 points
8 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

The Great­est Host

trentbrick10 May 2020 20:28 UTC
33 points
8 comments14 min readLW link

Book re­port: The­ory of Games and Eco­nomic Be­hav­ior (von Neu­mann & Mor­gen­stern)

Nisan11 May 2020 9:47 UTC
38 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

Zoom Tech­nolo­gies, Inc. vs. the Effi­cient Mar­kets Hypothesis

Zack_M_Davis11 May 2020 6:00 UTC
68 points
47 comments4 min readLW link

Time­less Identity

Eliezer Yudkowsky3 Jun 2008 8:16 UTC
42 points
246 comments14 min readLW link

How to take smart notes (Ahrens, 2017)

Yuxi_Liu23 Jul 2019 15:34 UTC
62 points
10 comments6 min readLW link

Le­gends of Runeterra: Early Review

Zvi13 May 2020 10:50 UTC
13 points
12 comments11 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] What are ar­ti­cles on “lifel­og­ging as life ex­ten­sion”?

Mati_Roy13 May 2020 20:35 UTC
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Dist­in­guish­ing lo­gis­tic curves

Stuart_Armstrong15 May 2020 11:38 UTC
23 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Small Data

lsusr14 May 2020 4:29 UTC
23 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Covid 5/​21: Limbo Under

Zvi14 May 2020 22:30 UTC
15 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Stud­ies On Slack

Scott Alexander13 May 2020 5:00 UTC
126 points
27 comments24 min readLW link
(slatestarcodex.com)

Sub­space optima

Chris van Merwijk15 May 2020 12:38 UTC
49 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Dist­in­guish­ing lo­gis­tic curves: visual

Stuart_Armstrong15 May 2020 10:33 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are Michael Vas­sar’s be­liefs?

Chris_Leong15 May 2020 6:15 UTC
20 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

The Ne­glected Virtue of Scholarship

lukeprog5 Jan 2011 7:22 UTC
258 points
153 comments3 min readLW link

Mak­ing your­self small

Helen8 Mar 2018 14:26 UTC
107 points
53 comments11 min readLW link

Why the tails come apart

Thrasymachus1 Aug 2014 22:41 UTC
238 points
100 comments7 min readLW link

Book Re­view: The Se­cret Of Our Success

Scott Alexander5 Jun 2019 6:50 UTC
145 points
19 comments25 min readLW link3 nominations2 reviews
(slatestarcodex.com)

The EMH Aten’t Dead

Richard Meadows15 May 2020 20:44 UTC
166 points
85 comments19 min readLW link

[Question] Do any mam­mal species ex­hibit an im­mune re­sponse in some of the herd in re­sponse to the in­fec­tion in other herd mem­bers?

jmh16 May 2020 17:33 UTC
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Sig­nal­ing: Why Peo­ple Have Conversations

liam_hinzman20 May 2020 3:18 UTC
15 points
21 comments3 min readLW link
(liamhinzman.com)

An­nounc­ing Progress Stud­ies for Young Schol­ars, an on­line sum­mer pro­gram in the his­tory of technology

jasoncrawford20 May 2020 0:52 UTC
19 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] Is there a way to repli­cate pho­to­syn­the­sis ar­tifi­cially?

basu_enterprise20 May 2020 19:45 UTC
−2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] If bac­te­ria gave us a tool for bio en­g­ineer­ing, have viruses given us a de­liv­ery mechanism?

jmh20 May 2020 22:31 UTC
5 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How does pub­lish­ing a pa­per work?

Liron21 May 2020 12:14 UTC
42 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What was your rea­son­ing for de­cid­ing to have ‘your own’/​ nat­u­ral-birthed chil­dren?

R L21 May 2020 1:30 UTC
2 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Orthogonality

lsusr21 May 2020 3:17 UTC
21 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

The Oil Cri­sis of 1973

Elizabeth22 May 2020 15:50 UTC
65 points
9 comments3 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

High­lights of Com­par­a­tive and Evolu­tion­ary Aging

johnswentworth22 May 2020 17:01 UTC
48 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Pre­dic­tions/​ques­tions about con­quis­ta­dors?

Daniel Kokotajlo22 May 2020 11:43 UTC
7 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Post-crash mar­ket effi­ciency 1696-2020

bfinn22 May 2020 14:13 UTC
16 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Mazes Se­quence Summary

Zvi23 May 2020 16:40 UTC
70 points
2 comments7 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

In Search of Slack

Martin Sustrik23 May 2020 11:20 UTC
47 points
3 comments6 min readLW link
(250bpm.com)

Evolu­tion is sam­pling error

willbradshaw23 May 2020 16:21 UTC
31 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(apomorphic.com)

[Question] Is tak­ing ba­copa good for life ex­ten­sion?

Mati_Roy23 May 2020 8:54 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Plague in As­sas­sin’s Creed Odyssey

Zvi24 May 2020 12:00 UTC
37 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Why We Age, Part 1: What age­ing is and is not

willbradshaw24 May 2020 9:06 UTC
47 points
4 comments7 min readLW link
(apomorphic.com)

[Question] What is your in­ter­net search method­ol­ogy ?

George23 May 2020 20:33 UTC
16 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Op­pos­ing a hi­er­ar­chy does not im­ply egalitarianism

Viliam23 May 2020 20:51 UTC
7 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

Notes about psychopharmacology

ksenia23 May 2020 19:31 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(n2t.net)

Why Ra­tion­al­ists Shouldn’t be In­ter­ested in To­pos Theory

jollybard25 May 2020 5:35 UTC
68 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

An ad­den­dum on effec­tive pop­u­la­tion size

willbradshaw25 May 2020 12:35 UTC
17 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(apomorphic.com)

On the Loss and Preser­va­tion of Knowledge

Samo Burja8 Mar 2018 18:40 UTC
51 points
20 comments10 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Book re­view: The Sleep­walk­ers by Arthur Koestler

Richard_Ngo23 Apr 2019 0:10 UTC
67 points
26 comments9 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

The Coper­ni­can Revolu­tion from the Inside

jacobjacob1 Nov 2017 10:51 UTC
94 points
45 comments19 min readLW link

Two Kinds of Tech­nol­ogy Change

johnswentworth11 Oct 2018 4:54 UTC
60 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Why We Age, Part 2: Non-adap­tive theories

willbradshaw26 May 2020 17:41 UTC
75 points
21 comments11 min readLW link
(apomorphic.com)

Wrinkles

johnswentworth19 Nov 2019 22:59 UTC
64 points
15 comments4 min readLW link

Homeosta­sis and “Root Causes” in Aging

johnswentworth5 Jan 2020 18:43 UTC
74 points
25 comments3 min readLW link

The Lens, Proge­rias and Polycausality

johnswentworth8 Mar 2020 17:53 UTC
63 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Adap­tive Im­mune Sys­tem Aging

johnswentworth13 Mar 2020 3:47 UTC
68 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Your ab­strac­tion isn’t wrong, it’s just re­ally bad

George26 May 2020 20:14 UTC
24 points
17 comments17 min readLW link
(blog.cerebralab.com)

Shut­tling be­tween sci­ence and invention

jasoncrawford27 May 2020 21:25 UTC
35 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Nor­mal­iza­tion of Deviance

G Gordon Worley III2 Jan 2020 22:58 UTC
60 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

Spec­u­la­tions on the Fu­ture of Fic­tion Writing

johnswentworth28 May 2020 16:34 UTC
35 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

How to (not) do a liter­a­ture review

Katarina Slama30 May 2020 0:11 UTC
71 points
7 comments6 min readLW link
(katarinaslama.github.io)

The Pre­sump­tu­ous Philoso­pher, self-lo­cat­ing in­for­ma­tion, and Solomonoff induction

Charlie Steiner31 May 2020 16:35 UTC
49 points
28 comments3 min readLW link

[Link] Lex Frid­man In­ter­views Karl Friston

Adam Scholl31 May 2020 9:53 UTC
7 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Any­one recom­mend a video course on the the­ory of com­pu­ta­tion?

Eli Tyre30 May 2020 19:52 UTC
8 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Restricted Diet and Longevity, does eat­ing pat­tern mat­ter?

jmh1 Jun 2020 21:28 UTC
6 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Un­der which con­di­tions are hu­man be­ings most likely to be al­tru­is­ti­cally mo­ti­vated?

toonalfrink1 Jun 2020 19:16 UTC
16 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

May Gw­ern.net newslet­ter (w/​GPT-3 com­men­tary)

gwern2 Jun 2020 15:40 UTC
32 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Spar­sity and in­ter­pretabil­ity?

1 Jun 2020 13:25 UTC
40 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

The Law of Cul­tural Proximity

eapache3 Jun 2020 2:18 UTC
8 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Why isn’t as­sas­si­na­tion/​sab­o­tage more com­mon?

Rudi C4 Jun 2020 18:04 UTC
8 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

Pas­teur’s quadrant

jasoncrawford5 Jun 2020 17:47 UTC
34 points
2 comments5 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

[Question] What is Ra?

Chris_Leong6 Jun 2020 4:29 UTC
18 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Most re­li­able news sources?

Eli Tyre6 Jun 2020 20:24 UTC
35 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Philos­o­phy in the Dark­est Timeline: Ba­sics of the Evolu­tion of Meaning

Zack_M_Davis7 Jun 2020 7:52 UTC
102 points
13 comments14 min readLW link

Con­scious­ness as Me­taphor: What Jaynes Has to Offer

Hazard7 Jun 2020 18:41 UTC
14 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

An Illus­trated Proof of the No Free Lunch Theorem

lifelonglearner8 Jun 2020 1:54 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(mlu.red)

Leg­i­bil­ity: Notes on “Man as a Ra­tion­al­ist An­i­mal”

Hazard8 Jun 2020 2:18 UTC
13 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Are there good ways to find ex­pert re­views of pop­u­lar sci­ence books?

Kaj_Sotala9 Jun 2020 14:54 UTC
22 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Public Static: What is Ab­strac­tion?

johnswentworth9 Jun 2020 18:36 UTC
66 points
17 comments12 min readLW link

More on dis­am­biguat­ing “dis­con­ti­nu­ity”

alenglander9 Jun 2020 15:16 UTC
16 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Self-Pre­dict­ing Markets

eapache10 Jun 2020 22:39 UTC
26 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is there some­thing like a “meta-en­cy­clo­pe­dia”?

Pablo11 Jun 2020 12:16 UTC
15 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Carte­sian Boundary as Ab­strac­tion Boundary

johnswentworth11 Jun 2020 17:38 UTC
24 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Does equa­nim­ity pre­vent nega­tive util­ity?

Chris_Leong11 Jun 2020 7:00 UTC
14 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Two Kinds of Mis­take Theorists

AllAmericanBreakfast11 Jun 2020 14:49 UTC
8 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Ide­ol­ogy/​nar­ra­tive sta­bi­lizes path-de­pen­dent equilibria

Eli Tyre11 Jun 2020 2:50 UTC
19 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Good and bad ways to think about down­side risks

11 Jun 2020 1:38 UTC
16 points
11 comments11 min readLW link

[Link] “Will He Go?” book re­view (Scott Aaron­son)

ioannes12 Jun 2020 22:16 UTC
15 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] For mod­er­ately well-re­sourced peo­ple in the US, how quickly will things go from “un­com­fortable” to “too late to exit”?

Dagon12 Jun 2020 16:59 UTC
72 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Down with Solomonoff In­duc­tion, up with the Pre­sump­tu­ous Philosopher

Charlie Steiner12 Jun 2020 9:44 UTC
13 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Test­ing Han­son’s hy­poth­e­sis about the use­less­ness of health care.

JoshuaFox13 Jun 2020 18:34 UTC
28 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

You Can Do Futarchy Yourself

Tetraspace Grouping14 Jun 2020 0:16 UTC
50 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

In­tu­itive La­grangian Mechanics

lsusr13 Jun 2020 9:19 UTC
23 points
10 comments2 min readLW link
(www.lsusr.com)

The Eco­nomic Con­se­quences of Noise Traders

FactorialCode14 Jun 2020 17:14 UTC
45 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.nber.org)

Causal­ity Adds Up to Normality

johnswentworth15 Jun 2020 17:19 UTC
12 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Su­per­ex­po­nen­tial His­toric Growth, by David Roodman

Ben Pace15 Jun 2020 21:49 UTC
43 points
6 comments5 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Re­search snap-shot: ques­tion about Global Workspace Theory

Hazard15 Jun 2020 21:00 UTC
21 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

High-School Alge­bra for Data Structures

johnswentworth17 Jun 2020 18:09 UTC
20 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Bathing Machines and the Lindy Effect

AllAmericanBreakfast17 Jun 2020 21:44 UTC
14 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Deriv­ing Gen­eral Relativity

lsusr22 Jun 2020 9:52 UTC
2 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Re­quest­ing feed­back/​ad­vice: what Type The­ory to study for AI safety?

rvnnt23 Jun 2020 17:03 UTC
7 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Ab­strac­tion, Evolu­tion and Gears

johnswentworth24 Jun 2020 17:39 UTC
25 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Quick Look #1 Dio­phan­tus of Alexandria

JohnBuridan24 Jun 2020 19:12 UTC
19 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

The Dark Mir­a­cle of Optics

Suspended Reason24 Jun 2020 3:09 UTC
26 points
5 comments8 min readLW link

Re­duc­tive Reference

Eliezer Yudkowsky3 Apr 2008 1:37 UTC
38 points
46 comments6 min readLW link

An ag­ile ap­proach to pre-research

AllAmericanBreakfast25 Jun 2020 18:29 UTC
14 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

In­dus­try and workers

smaslennikov25 Jun 2020 20:03 UTC
−3 points
12 comments4 min readLW link
(smaslennikov.com)

Black Death at the Golden Gate (book re­view)

PeterMcCluskey26 Jun 2020 16:09 UTC
17 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Miss­ing dog reasoning

26 Jun 2020 21:30 UTC
27 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Covid 6/​25: The Dam Breaks

Zvi25 Jun 2020 18:30 UTC
115 points
21 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

In­sti­tu­tional Senescence

Martin Sustrik26 Jun 2020 4:40 UTC
26 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(250bpm.com)

[Question] How ought I spend time?

Quinn30 Jun 2020 16:53 UTC
10 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

The ground of optimization

alexflint20 Jun 2020 0:38 UTC
158 points
64 comments27 min readLW link

How to Find Sources in an Un­re­li­able World

Elizabeth1 Jul 2020 18:30 UTC
39 points
10 comments2 min readLW link
(acesounderglass.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter. June 2020.

NunoSempere1 Jul 2020 9:46 UTC
27 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Se­cond-Order Ex­is­ten­tial Risk

Ideopunk1 Jul 2020 18:46 UTC
2 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

High Stock Prices Make Sense Right Now

johnswentworth3 Jul 2020 20:16 UTC
79 points
27 comments4 min readLW link

The silence is deaf­en­ing – Devon Zuegel

Ben Pace4 Jul 2020 2:30 UTC
27 points
12 comments1 min readLW link
(devonzuegel.com)

Causal­ity and its harms

George4 Jul 2020 14:42 UTC
16 points
19 comments11 min readLW link
(blog.cerebralab.com)

Let There be Sound: A Fris­to­nian Med­i­ta­tion on Creativity

jollybard4 Jul 2020 3:33 UTC
3 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(jollybard.wordpress.com)

[Question] Could Nixon go­ing to China be a cause for the big stag­na­tion?

ChristianKl5 Jul 2020 6:58 UTC
16 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How do you vi­su­al­ize the Pois­son PDF?

Rudi C5 Jul 2020 15:54 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] When a sta­tus sym­bol loses its plau­si­ble de­ni­a­bil­ity, how much power does it lose?

Mati_Roy7 Jul 2020 0:48 UTC
5 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

What should we do about net­work-effect mo­nop­o­lies?

benkuhn6 Jul 2020 0:40 UTC
49 points
17 comments1 min readLW link
(www.benkuhn.net)

[Question] [Refer­ence re­quest] Can Love be Ex­plained?

Self-Embedded Agent7 Jul 2020 10:09 UTC
2 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What is the sci­en­tific sta­tus of ‘Mus­cle Me­mory’?

Self-Embedded Agent7 Jul 2020 9:57 UTC
2 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Trans­late mu­sic in­to­na­tion into words us­ing color se­man­tics (as a means of com­mu­ni­ca­tion)

Alexey Smirnov7 Jul 2020 15:26 UTC
3 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Models of Value of Learning

johnswentworth7 Jul 2020 19:08 UTC
24 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Why Would A Cer­tain Hoax Story Be Re­ported For So Long?

Servant24 Mar 2011 17:11 UTC
12 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

Worth re­mem­ber­ing (when com­par­ing ‘the US’ to ‘Europe’)

Curiousguy13 Apr 2013 20:35 UTC
20 points
27 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Does 3-2-1 Vot­ing work us­ing a six point scale?

TGetschman7 Jul 2020 21:06 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Say Wrong Things

G Gordon Worley III24 May 2019 22:11 UTC
100 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Ni­coti­namide ri­boside vs. SARS-coV-2 update

William Walker8 Jul 2020 19:50 UTC
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tive cod­ing = RL + SL + Bayes + MPC

Steven Byrnes10 Dec 2019 11:45 UTC
50 points
8 comments7 min readLW link

The Brain as a Univer­sal Learn­ing Machine

jacob_cannell24 Jun 2015 21:45 UTC
132 points
169 comments19 min readLW link

Was a ter­mi­nal de­gree ~nec­es­sary for in­vent­ing Boyle’s desider­ata?

AllAmericanBreakfast10 Jul 2020 4:47 UTC
33 points
18 comments5 min readLW link

I Can Tol­er­ate Any­thing Ex­cept The Outgroup

Scott Alexander2 Sep 2017 8:22 UTC
36 points
1 comment28 min readLW link

How The West Was Won

Scott Alexander26 Jul 2016 3:05 UTC
22 points
4 comments17 min readLW link

The Ide­ol­ogy Is Not The Movement

Scott Alexander5 Apr 2016 1:52 UTC
14 points
1 comment24 min readLW link

Differ­ent Worlds

Scott Alexander3 Oct 2017 4:10 UTC
61 points
16 comments14 min readLW link
(slatestarcodex.com)

Eth­nic Ten­sion And Mean­ingless Arguments

Scott Alexander5 Nov 2014 3:38 UTC
41 points
5 comments22 min readLW link

The Cold War di­vided Science

Douglas_Knight5 Apr 2014 23:10 UTC
33 points
53 comments1 min readLW link

Astron­omy, space ex­plo­ra­tion and the Great Filter

JoshuaZ19 Apr 2015 19:26 UTC
36 points
68 comments20 min readLW link

How prob­a­ble is Molec­u­lar Nan­otech?

leplen29 Jun 2013 7:06 UTC
66 points
56 comments8 min readLW link

Was a PhD nec­es­sary to solve out­stand­ing math prob­lems?

AllAmericanBreakfast10 Jul 2020 18:43 UTC
22 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Born as the sev­enth month dies …

Rudi C10 Jul 2020 15:07 UTC
6 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Why are cer­tain trends so pre­cisely ex­po­nen­tial?

orthonormal6 Aug 2011 17:38 UTC
29 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

Canon­i­cal forms

sen11 Jul 2020 18:53 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.fimfiction.net)

Distinc­tions in Types of Thought

sarahconstantin10 Oct 2017 3:36 UTC
33 points
24 comments13 min readLW link

The Power of Intelligence

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Jan 2007 20:00 UTC
42 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Science eats its young

George12 Jul 2020 12:32 UTC
14 points
13 comments10 min readLW link
(cerebralab.com)

In praise of con­tribut­ing ex­am­ples, analo­gies and lingo

adamzerner13 Jul 2020 6:43 UTC
27 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Al­gorith­mic In­tent: A Han­so­nian Gen­er­al­ized Anti-Zom­bie Principle

Zack_M_Davis14 Jul 2020 6:03 UTC
34 points
17 comments12 min readLW link

Limits of Cur­rent US Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets (Pre­dic­tIt Case Study)

aphyer14 Jul 2020 7:24 UTC
177 points
49 comments7 min readLW link

Cal­ibra­tion Prac­tice: Retro­d­ic­tions on Metaculus

Raemon14 Jul 2020 18:35 UTC
31 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Gold­bach con­jec­ture is prob­a­bly cor­rect; so was Fer­mat’s last theorem

Stuart_Armstrong14 Jul 2020 19:30 UTC
69 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

What Money Can­not Buy

johnswentworth1 Feb 2020 20:11 UTC
215 points
44 comments4 min readLW link

Anti-so­cial Punishment

Martin Sustrik27 Sep 2018 7:08 UTC
219 points
64 comments6 min readLW link

The Library of Scott Alexandria

Rob Bensinger14 Sep 2015 1:38 UTC
98 points
33 comments7 min readLW link

The Cat­e­gories Were Made For Man, Not Man For The Categories

Scott Alexander21 Nov 2014 14:34 UTC
52 points
7 comments18 min readLW link

Ta­boo Your Words

Eliezer Yudkowsky15 Feb 2008 22:53 UTC
144 points
129 comments3 min readLW link

Un­con­scious Economics

jacobjacob27 Feb 2019 12:58 UTC
94 points
28 comments4 min readLW link2 nominations3 reviews

Philos­o­phy: A Diseased Discipline

lukeprog28 Mar 2011 19:31 UTC
128 points
448 comments7 min readLW link

Thou Art Godshatter

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Nov 2007 19:38 UTC
126 points
75 comments5 min readLW link

Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 Dec 2007 3:04 UTC
79 points
33 comments3 min readLW link

Why as­so­ci­a­tive op­er­a­tions?

Sunny from QAD16 Jul 2020 12:36 UTC
6 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(questionsanddaylight.com)

Why ev­ery­thing might have taken so long

KatjaGrace1 Jan 2018 1:00 UTC
98 points
16 comments3 min readLW link
(meteuphoric.wordpress.com)

Why did ev­ery­thing take so long?

KatjaGrace29 Dec 2017 1:00 UTC
25 points
17 comments1 min readLW link
(meteuphoric.wordpress.com)

The Chro­matic Num­ber of the Plane is at Least 5 - Aubrey de Grey

Scott Garrabrant11 Apr 2018 18:19 UTC
61 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

[Question] Erv­ing Goff­man’s ‘pa­per’

Saffron18 Jul 2020 1:12 UTC
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Cal­ibrate words, not just probabilities

MikkW18 Jul 2020 5:56 UTC
11 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Crit­i­cism of some pop­u­lar LW articles

AllAmericanBreakfast19 Jul 2020 1:16 UTC
64 points
19 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Math. proof of the su­pe­ri­or­ity of in­de­pen­dent guesses?

Milton19 Jul 2020 2:38 UTC
−3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Praise of some pop­u­lar LW articles

AllAmericanBreakfast20 Jul 2020 0:32 UTC
38 points
1 comment7 min readLW link

Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

Richard_Ngo20 Jul 2020 20:27 UTC
146 points
30 comments11 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

Un­cal­ibrated quan­tum ex­per­i­ments act cla­si­cally

justinpombrio21 Jul 2020 5:31 UTC
18 points
12 comments8 min readLW link

How good is hu­man­ity at co­or­di­na­tion?

Buck21 Jul 2020 20:01 UTC
72 points
43 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Are par­a­sitic worms an effec­tive weapon against MS?

Demeter23 Jul 2020 13:59 UTC
27 points
11 comments9 min readLW link

Swiss Poli­ti­cal Sys­tem: More than You ever Wanted to Know (II.)

Martin Sustrik22 Jul 2020 13:50 UTC
70 points
21 comments12 min readLW link
(250bpm.com)

A Nat­u­ral Ex­pla­na­tion of Nash Equilibria

Dr. Birdbrain25 Jul 2020 23:40 UTC
3 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Mini-Re­view: ‘The Oxford Hand­book of Philos­o­phy of Cog­ni­tive Science’

lukeprog1 Feb 2012 21:48 UTC
11 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Time se­ries fore­cast­ing for global tem­per­a­ture: an out­side view of cli­mate forecasting

VipulNaik7 Jul 2014 16:25 UTC
5 points
11 comments10 min readLW link

How to Seem (and Be) Deep

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Oct 2007 18:13 UTC
79 points
119 comments4 min readLW link

Ad­vanced Place­ment exam cut­offs and su­perfi­cial knowl­edge over deep knowledge

JonahS1 Sep 2013 21:01 UTC
10 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

The Orange Head Joke

Anatoly_Vorobey25 Jan 2011 20:33 UTC
28 points
96 comments2 min readLW link

LSD, Med­i­ta­tion, En­light­en­ment, and Ego Death

Fink20 Apr 2014 19:41 UTC
9 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

List of com­mon hu­man goals

Elo24 Aug 2015 7:58 UTC
19 points
24 comments7 min readLW link

Effects of Cas­tra­tion on the Life Ex­pec­tancy of Con­tem­po­rary Men

Fluttershy8 Aug 2015 4:37 UTC
15 points
50 comments10 min readLW link

The Atomic Bomb Con­sid­ered As Hun­gar­ian High School Science Fair Project

Scott Alexander26 May 2017 9:45 UTC
33 points
7 comments14 min readLW link

Time­less Physics

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 May 2008 9:09 UTC
42 points
121 comments12 min readLW link

What are the most com­mon and im­por­tant trade-offs that de­ci­sion mak­ers face?

Andy_McKenzie3 Nov 2014 5:03 UTC
13 points
30 comments2 min readLW link

New pa­per: Long-Term Tra­jec­to­ries of Hu­man Civilization

Kaj_Sotala12 Aug 2018 9:10 UTC
33 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Study on what makes peo­ple ap­prove or con­demn mind up­load tech­nol­ogy; refer­ences LW

Kaj_Sotala10 Jul 2018 17:14 UTC
21 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(www.nature.com)

[Question] Would a halfway copied brain em­u­la­tion be at risk of hav­ing differ­ent val­ues/​iden­tity?

Ghatanathoah30 Jul 2020 5:43 UTC
9 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Covid 7/​30: Whack a Mole

Zvi30 Jul 2020 15:50 UTC
39 points
4 comments10 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Run­ning the num­bers: Cryo vs Dis­count rate

RomeoStevens4 Jun 2014 7:54 UTC
9 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

New Paper on Herd Im­mu­nity Thresholds

Zvi29 Jul 2020 20:50 UTC
40 points
17 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] How has the cost of cloth­ing in­su­la­tion changed since 1970 in the USA?

DanielFilan12 Jan 2020 23:31 UTC
14 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

In­sights from ‘The Strat­egy of Con­flict’

DanielFilan4 Jan 2018 5:05 UTC
34 points
13 comments7 min readLW link

Free Ed­u­ca­tional and Re­search Resources

wearsshoes31 Jul 2020 0:24 UTC
45 points
25 comments6 min readLW link

In­fer­ence & Empiricism

SatvikBeri20 Mar 2018 15:47 UTC
38 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

A Ker­nel of Truth: In­sights from ‘A Friendly Ap­proach to Func­tional Anal­y­sis’

TurnTrout4 Apr 2020 3:38 UTC
31 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

ODE to Joy: In­sights from ‘A First Course in Or­di­nary Differ­en­tial Equa­tions’

TurnTrout25 Mar 2020 20:03 UTC
36 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

En­forc­ing Type Distinction

lionhearted31 Jul 2020 11:39 UTC
25 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

[Question] Is this info on zinc lozenges ac­cu­rate?

philh27 Jul 2019 22:05 UTC
30 points
22 comments5 min readLW link

Value Impact

TurnTrout23 Sep 2019 0:47 UTC
60 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

De­duc­ing Impact

TurnTrout24 Sep 2019 21:14 UTC
64 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

At­tain­able Utility The­ory: Why Things Matter

TurnTrout27 Sep 2019 16:48 UTC
60 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

World State is the Wrong Ab­strac­tion for Impact

TurnTrout1 Oct 2019 21:03 UTC
61 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

The Gears of Impact

TurnTrout7 Oct 2019 14:44 UTC
50 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

At­tain­able Utility Land­scape: How The World Is Changed

TurnTrout10 Feb 2020 0:58 UTC
51 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

The Era Of Un­limited Every­thing: Un­limited Ma­te­ri­als & Un­limited Money

jdampolargo1 Aug 2020 3:01 UTC
4 points
11 comments10 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Effi­cient Mar­kets in Poli­ti­cal Power

johnswentworth1 Aug 2020 4:49 UTC
40 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] What is ab­strac­tion?

adamzerner15 Dec 2018 8:36 UTC
25 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2020.

NunoSempere1 Aug 2020 17:08 UTC
21 points
4 comments22 min readLW link

Ra­tion­al­ity, Levels of In­ter­ven­tion, and Empiricism

Geoff_Anders25 Sep 2019 16:59 UTC
62 points
35 comments9 min readLW link2 nominations3 reviews

[Question] What are ex­am­ples of ‘sci­en­tific’ stud­ies that con­tra­dict what you be­lieve about your­self?

Mati_Roy3 Aug 2020 6:11 UTC
12 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

How To Use Bureaucracies

Samo Burja17 Jul 2018 8:10 UTC
66 points
37 comments9 min readLW link
(medium.com)

The Re­la­tion­ship Between Hier­ar­chy and Wealth

sarahconstantin23 Jan 2019 2:00 UTC
57 points
8 comments12 min readLW link
(srconstantin.wordpress.com)

A sketch of ‘Si­mu­lacra Levels and their In­ter­ac­tions’

Yoav Ravid4 Aug 2020 9:13 UTC
44 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

The Golden Age of Data

Collisteru4 Aug 2020 21:35 UTC
5 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Is Wire­cut­ter still good?

Ben Pace7 Aug 2020 21:54 UTC
45 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

The Man­ual Economy

eapache7 Aug 2020 22:29 UTC
8 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AI Progress: A Re­search Agenda

10 Aug 2020 1:04 UTC
39 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What’s the ev­i­dence on fal­ling testos­teron and sperm counts in men?

Self-Embedded Agent10 Aug 2020 8:58 UTC
3 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

So­cial Dynamics

curi10 Aug 2020 19:29 UTC
10 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Money cre­ation and debt

AnthonyC12 Aug 2020 20:30 UTC
26 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Sen­tence by Sen­tence: “Why Most Pub­lished Re­search Find­ings are False”

AllAmericanBreakfast13 Aug 2020 6:51 UTC
22 points
5 comments47 min readLW link

The Case for Education

SamuelKnoche14 Aug 2020 17:20 UTC
26 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

The Best Ed­u­ca­tional In­sti­tu­tion in the World

SamuelKnoche14 Aug 2020 17:18 UTC
38 points
12 comments9 min readLW link

How webs of mean­ing grow and change

Hazard14 Aug 2020 13:58 UTC
12 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

The Hu­man Condition

Martin Sustrik16 Aug 2020 5:23 UTC
25 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Notes on Brain­wash­ing & ‘Cults’

gwern13 Sep 2013 20:49 UTC
62 points
104 comments16 min readLW link

Honors Fuel Achievement

Samo Burja10 Jun 2019 16:10 UTC
38 points
2 comments8 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Mul­ti­tudi­nous out­side views

Davidmanheim18 Aug 2020 6:21 UTC
49 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

Cy­ber­netic dreams: Beer’s pond brain

Yuxi_Liu19 Nov 2019 12:48 UTC
36 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Can we use ideas from ecosys­tem man­age­ment to cul­ti­vate a healthy ra­tio­nal­ity memes­pace?

13 Jun 2019 12:38 UTC
36 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Me­taphilo­soph­i­cal Mysteries

Wei_Dai27 Jul 2010 0:55 UTC
47 points
265 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How would we check if “Math­e­mat­i­ci­ans are gen­er­ally more Law Abid­ing?”

Raemon12 Jan 2020 20:23 UTC
26 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What ex­per­i­ments would demon­strate “up­per limits of aug­mented work­ing mem­ory?”

Raemon15 Aug 2019 22:09 UTC
28 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

In­tel­li­gence Am­plifi­ca­tion Interview

KatjaGrace28 Mar 2014 22:21 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Sto­ries About Academia

Ben Pace2 Sep 2019 18:40 UTC
32 points
1 comment19 min readLW link

Judg­ment Day: In­sights from ‘Judg­ment in Man­age­rial De­ci­sion Mak­ing’

TurnTrout29 Dec 2019 18:03 UTC
24 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

A Quick Tax­on­omy of Ar­gu­ments for The­o­ret­i­cal Eng­ineer­ing Capabilities

Ruby21 May 2019 22:38 UTC
29 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

See­ing the Ma­trix, Switch­ing Ab­strac­tions, and Miss­ing Moods

Raemon4 Jun 2019 21:08 UTC
31 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] What is re­quired to run a psy­chol­ogy study?

Raemon29 May 2019 6:38 UTC
30 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are some “Com­mu­ni­ties and Cul­tures Differ­ent From Our Own?”

Raemon12 May 2019 22:03 UTC
28 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Stubs of Posts I’d like to Write

Raemon7 Oct 2017 23:27 UTC
11 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How could “Kick­starter for Inad­e­quate Equil­ibria” be used for evil or turn out to be net-nega­tive?

Raemon21 Feb 2019 21:36 UTC
25 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

The Ass­hole Filter

DragonGod7 Oct 2017 16:51 UTC
15 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(siderea.livejournal.com)

The Just World Hypothesis

michael_vassar29 Oct 2017 6:03 UTC
14 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Start Un­der the Streetlight, then Push into the Shadows

lukeprog24 Jun 2013 0:49 UTC
51 points
29 comments8 min readLW link

Real-World Co­or­di­na­tion Prob­lems are Usu­ally In­for­ma­tion Problems

johnswentworth13 Jun 2019 18:21 UTC
31 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

Grow­ing Up is Hard

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Jan 2009 3:55 UTC
38 points
41 comments7 min readLW link

Selec­tive pro­cesses bring tag-alongs (but not always!)

AnnaSalamon11 Mar 2009 8:17 UTC
34 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

New Post ver­sion 1 (please read this ONLY if your last name be­ings with a–k)

lukeprog27 Jul 2011 21:57 UTC
38 points
87 comments5 min readLW link

How is your mind differ­ent from ev­ery­one else’s?

Kaj_Sotala5 Dec 2011 8:38 UTC
40 points
267 comments1 min readLW link

How More Knowl­edge is Mak­ing Us Dumber

jdampolargo20 Aug 2020 15:08 UTC
1 point
4 comments3 min readLW link

“Tech­nol­ogy and the Fu­ture of Per­sons”, by Lynne Rud­der Baker (2013)

Callmesalticidae20 Aug 2020 14:31 UTC
5 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Long-Term Tech­nolog­i­cal Forecasting

lukeprog11 Jan 2012 4:13 UTC
34 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

How about test­ing our ideas?

[deleted]14 Sep 2012 10:28 UTC
41 points
113 comments3 min readLW link

Notes on Psychopathy

gwern19 Dec 2012 4:02 UTC
42 points
100 comments35 min readLW link

Im­prov­ing En­joy­ment and Re­ten­tion Read­ing Tech­ni­cal Literature

sentientplatypus7 Aug 2013 6:29 UTC
45 points
39 comments3 min readLW link

The silos of ex­per­tise: be­yond heuris­tics and biases

Stuart_Armstrong26 Jun 2014 13:13 UTC
48 points
16 comments9 min readLW link

[Re­tracted] Simp­son’s para­dox strikes again: there is no great stag­na­tion?

CarlShulman30 Jul 2012 17:55 UTC
41 points
51 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How much can sur­gi­cal masks help with wild­fire smoke?

G Gordon Worley III21 Aug 2020 15:46 UTC
9 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Epistemic Com­par­i­son: First Prin­ci­ples Land vs. Mime­sis Land

ozziegooen21 Aug 2020 22:28 UTC
32 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What am I miss­ing? (quan­tum physics)

kithpendragon21 Aug 2020 12:39 UTC
10 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What posts on fi­nance would your find helpful or in­ter­est­ing?

Alexei22 Aug 2020 4:31 UTC
32 points
47 comments1 min readLW link

“The Holy Grail” of port­fo­lio management

Alexei22 Aug 2020 4:25 UTC
48 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Why don’t coun­tries, like com­pa­nies, more of­ten merge?

Vishrut Arya22 Aug 2020 23:56 UTC
13 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

Effi­cient Mar­ket Frontier

Alexei22 Aug 2020 23:52 UTC
18 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

We­bBun­dles and URL Randomization

jefftk26 Aug 2020 17:50 UTC
10 points
1 comment3 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Are We Right about How Effec­tive Mock­ery Is?

Ronny27 Aug 2020 10:48 UTC
44 points
13 comments9 min readLW link

19th-cen­tury progress studies

jasoncrawford27 Aug 2020 2:28 UTC
30 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Notes on “The An­thro­pol­ogy of Child­hood”

juliawise27 Aug 2020 17:11 UTC
160 points
9 comments45 min readLW link

[Question] What is the in­ter­pre­ta­tion of the do() op­er­a­tor?

Bunthut26 Aug 2020 21:54 UTC
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

A Policy for Bit­ing Bullets

eapache31 Aug 2020 21:00 UTC
6 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2020.

NunoSempere1 Sep 2020 11:38 UTC
16 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

Au­gust 2020 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwern1 Sep 2020 21:04 UTC
25 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Study Group for Progress – 50% off for LessWrongers

jasoncrawford3 Sep 2020 0:17 UTC
14 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What’s the best overview of com­mon Micro­morts?

Raemon3 Sep 2020 2:39 UTC
34 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

The Box Spread Trick: Get rich slightly faster

Thomas Kwa1 Sep 2020 21:41 UTC
40 points
33 comments6 min readLW link

Emo­tional valence vs RL re­ward: a video game analogy

Steven Byrnes3 Sep 2020 15:28 UTC
11 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

“How to Talk About Books You Haven’t Read”, by Pierre Bayard

Callmesalticidae3 Sep 2020 13:05 UTC
10 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

Li and Vi­tanyi’s bad scholarship

alanf5 Sep 2020 8:07 UTC
0 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Hello or­di­nary folks, I’m the Cho­sen One

dadadarren4 Sep 2020 19:59 UTC
17 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Why would code/​English or low-ab­strac­tion/​high-ab­strac­tion sim­plic­ity or brevity cor­re­spond?

curi4 Sep 2020 19:46 UTC
2 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Ice

Hivewired6 Sep 2020 18:30 UTC
34 points
1 comment6 min readLW link
(hivewired.wordpress.com)

Es­ca­la­tion Out­side the System

jefftk8 Sep 2020 18:20 UTC
25 points
11 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Loneliness

AllAmericanBreakfast8 Sep 2020 8:14 UTC
13 points
0 comments12 min readLW link

[Question] Effi­cacy of Vi­tamin D in helping with COVID

df fd8 Sep 2020 10:49 UTC
16 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

CTWTB: Paths of Com­pu­ta­tion State

johnswentworth8 Sep 2020 20:44 UTC
36 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] De­ci­sion the­ory anal­y­sis of whether vac­cines should be dis­tributed prior to the com­ple­tion of stage three tri­als please

rockthecasbah7 Sep 2020 23:50 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Up­dates Thread

adamzerner9 Sep 2020 4:34 UTC
54 points
41 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] So­cial Cap­i­tal Paradoxes

abramdemski10 Sep 2020 18:44 UTC
66 points
24 comments4 min readLW link

“In the Dust of This Planet,” by Eu­gene Thacker

Callmesalticidae10 Sep 2020 19:50 UTC
4 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

What’s Wrong with So­cial Science and How to Fix It: Reflec­tions After Read­ing 2578 Papers

habryka12 Sep 2020 1:46 UTC
102 points
22 comments2 min readLW link
(fantasticanachronism.com)

Progress: Fluke or trend?

jasoncrawford13 Sep 2020 0:21 UTC
16 points
19 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

How To Fermi Model

9 Sep 2020 5:13 UTC
78 points
7 comments11 min readLW link

Against boots theory

philh14 Sep 2020 13:20 UTC
34 points
14 comments6 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

[Question] If Star­ship works, how much would it cost to cre­ate a sys­tem of rotable space mir­rors that re­duces tem­per­a­tures on earth by 1° C?

ChristianKl14 Sep 2020 18:46 UTC
13 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Book Re­view: Work­ing With Contracts

johnswentworth14 Sep 2020 23:22 UTC
135 points
26 comments11 min readLW link

A case study in simu­lacra lev­els and the Four Chil­dren of the Seder

AllAmericanBreakfast14 Sep 2020 22:31 UTC
32 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Most Pri­soner’s Dilem­mas are Stag Hunts; Most Stag Hunts are Schel­ling Problems

abramdemski14 Sep 2020 22:13 UTC
123 points
31 comments10 min readLW link

What Does “Sig­nal­ling” Mean?

abramdemski16 Sep 2020 21:19 UTC
37 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are ex­am­ples of sim­pler uni­verses that have been de­scribed in or­der to ex­plain a con­cept from our more com­plex uni­verse?

Mati_Roy17 Sep 2020 1:31 UTC
4 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­pan­sive trans­la­tions: con­sid­er­a­tions and possibilities

ozziegooen18 Sep 2020 15:39 UTC
43 points
15 comments6 min readLW link

[Question] Are air­craft car­ri­ers su­per vuln­er­a­ble in a mod­ern war?

Liron20 Sep 2020 18:52 UTC
15 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How of­ten do se­ries C star­tups fail to exit?

Jessica Shu21 Sep 2020 19:37 UTC
14 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Com­par­a­tive Ad­van­tage is Not About Trade

johnswentworth22 Sep 2020 18:43 UTC
82 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Vi­su­al­iz­ing the text­book for fun and profit

AllAmericanBreakfast24 Sep 2020 19:37 UTC
25 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

I have dis­cov­ered a new kind of un­em­ploy­ment.

Nathan Brooks24 Sep 2020 1:04 UTC
12 points
4 comments2 min readLW link
(seekingalpha.com)

[Question] What hard sci­ence fic­tion sto­ries also got the so­cial sci­ences right?

Mati_Roy27 Sep 2020 20:37 UTC
15 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

Do­ing dis­course bet­ter: Stuff I wish I knew

dynomight29 Sep 2020 14:34 UTC
27 points
11 comments7 min readLW link
(dyno-might.github.io)

Holy Grails of Chemistry

chemslug30 Sep 2020 2:03 UTC
31 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Three car seats?

jefftk1 Oct 2020 14:30 UTC
16 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2020 11:00 UTC
21 points
3 comments11 min readLW link

Math That Clicks: Look for Two-Way Correspondences

TurnTrout2 Oct 2020 1:22 UTC
30 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

At­ten­tion to snakes not fear of snakes: evolu­tion en­cod­ing en­vi­ron­men­tal knowl­edge in periph­eral systems

Kaj_Sotala2 Oct 2020 11:50 UTC
39 points
1 comment3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

Weird Things About Money

abramdemski3 Oct 2020 17:13 UTC
71 points
31 comments6 min readLW link

Fish­bowl re­al­ity

Elo4 Oct 2020 2:16 UTC
10 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

[Link] Faster than Light in Our Model of Physics: Some Pre­limi­nary Thoughts—Stephen Wolfram Writings

Kenny4 Oct 2020 20:26 UTC
1 point
14 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Fermi Challenge: Trains and Air Cargo

Ben Pace5 Oct 2020 21:51 UTC
29 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

The Rise and Fall of Amer­i­can Growth: A summary

jasoncrawford5 Oct 2020 21:41 UTC
57 points
9 comments11 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Poli­ti­cal Lot­tery in Switzerland

Martin Sustrik8 Oct 2020 5:03 UTC
29 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

More Ques­tions about Trees

digital_carver9 Oct 2020 8:35 UTC
2 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(bit-player.org)

Some el­e­ments of in­dus­trial literacy

jasoncrawford8 Oct 2020 19:51 UTC
9 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Alpha α and Beta β

lsusr10 Oct 2020 6:27 UTC
3 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Ex­am­ples of pos­i­tive-sum(ish) games?

NicholasKross10 Oct 2020 21:09 UTC
3 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Charisma is a Force Multiplier

Davis_Kingsley11 Oct 2020 10:21 UTC
34 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Tech­nol­ogy and its side effects

jasoncrawford13 Oct 2020 20:07 UTC
17 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

A prior for tech­nolog­i­cal discontinuities

NunoSempere13 Oct 2020 16:51 UTC
50 points
17 comments6 min readLW link

Le­gal­ize Black­mail: An Example

rockthecasbah14 Oct 2020 21:18 UTC
0 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is Stu­pidity Ex­pand­ing? Some Hy­pothe­ses.

David_Gross15 Oct 2020 3:28 UTC
68 points
42 comments4 min readLW link

Eval­u­at­ing ex­per­tise: a clear box model

JustinShovelain15 Oct 2020 14:18 UTC
35 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Covid 10/​15: Play­time is Over

Zvi15 Oct 2020 14:30 UTC
74 points
22 comments17 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Moloch games

Chris van Merwijk16 Oct 2020 15:19 UTC
74 points
5 comments4 min readLW link

You have re­cov­ered from SARS-CoV-2. Now what?

Annapurna18 Oct 2020 17:52 UTC
15 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

[Question] Has any­one re­searched speci­fi­ca­tion gam­ing with biolog­i­cal an­i­mals?

capybaralet21 Oct 2020 0:20 UTC
11 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Covid 10/​22: Europe in Crisis

Zvi22 Oct 2020 15:40 UTC
80 points
13 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

“Lit­tle glimpses of em­pa­thy” as the foun­da­tion for so­cial emotions

Steven Byrnes22 Oct 2020 11:02 UTC
25 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Limited agents need ap­prox­i­mate induction

Manfred24 Apr 2015 7:42 UTC
16 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] What is the cur­rent bot­tle­neck on ge­netic en­g­ineer­ing of hu­man em­bryos for im­proved IQ

Eli Tyre23 Oct 2020 2:36 UTC
33 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What is our true life ex­pec­tancy?

adamzerner23 Oct 2020 23:17 UTC
14 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Lo­cal So­lar Time

jefftk23 Oct 2020 19:40 UTC
16 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Su­per­vised learn­ing of out­puts in the brain

Steven Byrnes26 Oct 2020 14:32 UTC
26 points
9 comments10 min readLW link

In­te­gers as Compression

Chris_Leong28 Oct 2020 7:36 UTC
9 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What’s hold­ing back out­sourc­ing to cloud labs?

ChristianKl28 Oct 2020 23:07 UTC
23 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

How to Find the Fron­tiers of Knowledge

Samo Burja30 Oct 2020 10:50 UTC
53 points
1 comment9 min readLW link
(medium.com)

[Question] Why does His­tory as­sume equal na­tional in­tel­li­gence?

HumaneAutomation30 Oct 2020 23:11 UTC
1 point
38 comments1 min readLW link

Why I Pre­fer the Copen­hagen In­ter­pre­ta­tion(s)

dadadarren31 Oct 2020 21:06 UTC
5 points
44 comments4 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Oc­to­ber 2020 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwern1 Nov 2020 21:38 UTC
24 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

[Question] What is the right phrase for “the­o­ret­i­cal ev­i­dence”?

adamzerner1 Nov 2020 20:43 UTC
24 points
41 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Nov 2020 13:09 UTC
10 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

The Born Rule is Time-Symmetric

lsusr1 Nov 2020 23:24 UTC
1 point
17 comments1 min readLW link

Zeno’s Paradoxes

Chris_Leong1 Nov 2020 23:39 UTC
7 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Three more sto­ries about causation

cousin_it3 Nov 2020 15:51 UTC
15 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

When Money Is Abun­dant, Knowl­edge Is The Real Wealth

johnswentworth3 Nov 2020 17:34 UTC
200 points
50 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Where do (did?) sta­ble, co­op­er­a­tive in­sti­tu­tions come from?

AnnaSalamon3 Nov 2020 22:14 UTC
130 points
72 comments4 min readLW link

Gifts Which Money Can­not Buy

johnswentworth4 Nov 2020 19:37 UTC
73 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Mul­ti­ple Wor­lds, One Univer­sal Wave Function

evhub4 Nov 2020 22:28 UTC
44 points
76 comments25 min readLW link

Notes on Jus­tice (as a virtue)

David_Gross5 Nov 2020 20:27 UTC
3 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

Im­pos­tor Syn­drome as skill/​dom­i­nance mismatch

Viliam5 Nov 2020 20:05 UTC
75 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Heat Engine

johnswentworth5 Nov 2020 19:01 UTC
137 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

“model scores” is a ques­tion­able concept

Maxwell Peterson6 Nov 2020 3:19 UTC
26 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Heat Eng­ine II: Ther­mo­dy­namic Effi­ciency Limit

johnswentworth6 Nov 2020 17:30 UTC
48 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

A re­view of Where Is My Fly­ing Car? by J. Storrs Hall

jasoncrawford6 Nov 2020 20:01 UTC
87 points
21 comments11 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Ethics in Many Worlds

fin6 Nov 2020 23:21 UTC
4 points
17 comments9 min readLW link

Three Open Prob­lems in Aging

johnswentworth7 Nov 2020 19:39 UTC
48 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions made by Mati Roy in early 2020

Mati_Roy21 Nov 2020 3:24 UTC
23 points
7 comments16 min readLW link

Why philos­o­phy of sci­ence?

Richard_Ngo7 Nov 2020 11:10 UTC
53 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

Can we prime peo­ple to take risk?

tonyoconnor7 Nov 2020 17:17 UTC
5 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Nu­clear war is un­likely to cause hu­man extinction

landfish7 Nov 2020 5:42 UTC
82 points
36 comments11 min readLW link

When Hind­sight Isn’t 20/​20: In­cen­tive De­sign With Im­perfect Credit Allocation

johnswentworth8 Nov 2020 19:16 UTC
60 points
21 comments6 min readLW link

Fre­quen­tist prac­tice in­cor­po­rates prior in­for­ma­tion all the time

Maxwell Peterson7 Nov 2020 20:43 UTC
17 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Costs and benefits of metaphysics

George9 Nov 2020 14:31 UTC
11 points
1 comment11 min readLW link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

9 Nov 2020 16:20 UTC
39 points
17 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What frac­tion of Dan Ariely’s Ir­ra­tional Game hasn’t repli­cated?

Mati_Roy9 Nov 2020 20:25 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

My de­fault frame: some fun­da­men­tals and back­ground beliefs

Pontor10 Nov 2020 0:04 UTC
6 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] What Would Ad­vanced So­cial Tech­nol­ogy Look Like?

johnswentworth10 Nov 2020 17:55 UTC
43 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

Why I’m Writ­ing A Book

Samo Burja10 Nov 2020 16:50 UTC
33 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Are the so­cial sci­ences challeng­ing be­cause of fun­da­men­tal difficul­ties or be­cause of im­posed ones?

ozziegooen10 Nov 2020 4:56 UTC
53 points
13 comments11 min readLW link

Think in Terms of Ac­tions, not Attributes

Collisteru11 Nov 2020 15:57 UTC
7 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Link] Digi­tal Democ­racy Is Within Reach

Alexei11 Nov 2020 22:12 UTC
19 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(your-undivided-attention.simplecast.com)

A Cor­re­spon­dence The­o­rem in the Max­i­mum En­tropy Framework

johnswentworth11 Nov 2020 22:46 UTC
33 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Book re­view: Age Later

PeterMcCluskey27 Oct 2020 4:21 UTC
27 points
3 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

[Question] Where can I find good ex­pla­na­tions of the cen­tral limit the­o­rems for peo­ple with a Bayesian back­ground?

Maxwell Peterson13 Nov 2020 16:36 UTC
2 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

In­for­ma­tion Charts

Rafael Harth13 Nov 2020 16:12 UTC
28 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

A Self-Embed­ded Prob­a­bil­is­tic Model

johnswentworth13 Nov 2020 20:36 UTC
30 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

The Dar­win Game—Rounds 3 to 9

lsusr14 Nov 2020 2:26 UTC
24 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

The Wis­dom of the Crowd so­cial learn­ing group

Jason Geringer13 Nov 2020 21:33 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forms.gle)

My Con­fu­sion about Mo­ral Philos­o­phy

Nacruno9614 Nov 2020 3:49 UTC
1 point
14 comments3 min readLW link

Spe­cial­ized La­bor and Coun­ter­fac­tual Compensation

philh14 Nov 2020 18:13 UTC
18 points
2 comments19 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

On Ar­gu­ments for God

Chris_Leong14 Nov 2020 9:06 UTC
10 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

15 Nov 2020 21:12 UTC
67 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

How Rood­man’s GWP model trans­lates to TAI timelines

Daniel Kokotajlo16 Nov 2020 14:05 UTC
20 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Anatomy of a Gear

johnswentworth16 Nov 2020 16:34 UTC
72 points
12 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] How can labour pro­duc­tivity growth be an in­di­ca­tor of au­toma­tion?

Polytopos16 Nov 2020 21:16 UTC
2 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

On the Shoulders of Giants

meanderingmoose17 Nov 2020 18:10 UTC
1 point
5 comments6 min readLW link

AGI Predictions

21 Nov 2020 3:46 UTC
103 points
35 comments4 min readLW link

The cen­tral limit the­o­rem in terms of convolutions

Maxwell Peterson21 Nov 2020 4:09 UTC
29 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

My in­tel­lec­tual influences

Richard_Ngo22 Nov 2020 18:00 UTC
77 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

It’s not eco­nom­i­cally in­effi­cient for a UBI to re­duce re­cip­i­ent’s employment

paulfchristiano22 Nov 2020 16:40 UTC
80 points
59 comments4 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

De­mys­tify­ing the Se­cond Law of Thermodynamics

Eigil Rischel22 Nov 2020 13:52 UTC
7 points
8 comments6 min readLW link

Syn­tax, se­man­tics, and sym­bol ground­ing, simplified

Stuart_Armstrong23 Nov 2020 16:12 UTC
25 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

Sny­der-Beat­tie, Sand­berg, Drexler & Bon­sall (2020): The Timing of Evolu­tion­ary Tran­si­tions Suggests In­tel­li­gent Life Is Rare

Kaj_Sotala24 Nov 2020 10:36 UTC
79 points
15 comments2 min readLW link
(www.liebertpub.com)

Con­volu­tion as smoothing

Maxwell Peterson25 Nov 2020 6:00 UTC
26 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Squig­gle: An Overview

ozziegooen24 Nov 2020 3:00 UTC
41 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

The Ex­ploita­bil­ity/​Ex­plain­abil­ity Frontier

ike26 Nov 2020 0:59 UTC
17 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Squig­gle: Tech­ni­cal Overview

ozziegooen25 Nov 2020 20:51 UTC
16 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

De­con­struct­ing 321 Voting

abramdemski26 Nov 2020 3:35 UTC
37 points
5 comments6 min readLW link

Ma­tryoshka Fara­day Box

lsusr26 Nov 2020 9:42 UTC
36 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Evolu­tion and fit­ness vs self-aware­ness and memetics

FractalParrot29 Nov 2020 21:07 UTC
3 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Book re­view: WEIRDest People

PeterMcCluskey30 Nov 2020 3:33 UTC
88 points
54 comments9 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

[Question] Why did the Ming trea­sure voy­ages end in 1433?

ChristianKl30 Nov 2020 13:30 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Linkpost] AlphaFold: a solu­tion to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology

adamShimi30 Nov 2020 17:33 UTC
54 points
22 comments1 min readLW link
(deepmind.com)

Non-Book Re­view: Pat­terns of Conflict

johnswentworth30 Nov 2020 21:05 UTC
32 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2020

NunoSempere1 Dec 2020 17:00 UTC
28 points
5 comments12 min readLW link

Book Re­view: ‘His­tory Has Be­gun: The Birth of a New Amer­ica’ by Bruno Maçães

tonyoconnor1 Dec 2020 11:47 UTC
1 point
2 comments10 min readLW link

Why Re­cent Protein Fold­ing Ad­vance­ments Should Change Your Per­sonal Health Strategy

lisperati3 Dec 2020 2:39 UTC
10 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Novem­ber 2020 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwern3 Dec 2020 22:47 UTC
14 points
5 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Real-Life Ex­am­ples of Pre­dic­tion Sys­tems In­terfer­ing with the Real World (Pre­dict-O-Matic Prob­lems)

NunoSempere3 Dec 2020 22:00 UTC
111 points
29 comments9 min readLW link

The Hard Prob­lem of Magic

enaumov4 Dec 2020 18:51 UTC
0 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Anti-EMH Ev­i­dence (and a plea for help)

Wei_Dai5 Dec 2020 18:29 UTC
90 points
42 comments5 min readLW link

Cul­tural accumulation

KatjaGrace6 Dec 2020 6:20 UTC
83 points
50 comments3 min readLW link
(meteuphoric.com)

1960: The Year The Sin­gu­lar­ity Was Cancelled

Scott Alexander23 Apr 2019 1:30 UTC
93 points
14 comments11 min readLW link2 nominations1 review
(slatestarcodex.com)

An el­e­gant proof of Laplace’s rule of succession

UnexpectedValues7 Dec 2020 22:43 UTC
31 points
12 comments8 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Walk to a San Fran­cisco FedEx

KatjaGrace9 Dec 2020 8:50 UTC
27 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Notes on Know-how

David_Gross9 Dec 2020 17:21 UTC
10 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Parable of the Dammed

johnswentworth10 Dec 2020 0:08 UTC
96 points
27 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What tech­nolo­gies could cause world GDP dou­bling times to be <8 years?

Daniel Kokotajlo10 Dec 2020 15:34 UTC
42 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

Un­ex­plored modes of language

KatjaGrace10 Dec 2020 7:00 UTC
28 points
21 comments2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Flights of wonder

KatjaGrace11 Dec 2020 10:50 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

The Fermi Para­dox has not been dis­solved—James Fodor

MakoYass12 Dec 2020 23:18 UTC
30 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

[Question] What con­fu­sions do peo­ple have about simu­lacrum lev­els?

johnswentworth14 Dec 2020 20:20 UTC
27 points
30 comments1 min readLW link

The wild

KatjaGrace15 Dec 2020 10:50 UTC
17 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

In­cen­tiviz­ing fore­cast­ing via so­cial media

16 Dec 2020 12:15 UTC
19 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

[Question] How long till In­verse AlphaFold?

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Dec 2020 19:56 UTC
41 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

We des­per­ately need to talk more about hu­man challenge tri­als.

AllAmericanBreakfast19 Dec 2020 10:00 UTC
28 points
25 comments4 min readLW link

In­ter­ac­tive ex­plo­ra­tion of LessWrong and other large col­lec­tions of documents

20 Dec 2020 19:06 UTC
49 points
9 comments10 min readLW link

The Best Vi­su­al­iza­tions on Every Subject

ryan_b21 Dec 2020 22:51 UTC
53 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

When life was liter­ally full of crap

jasoncrawford21 Dec 2020 21:16 UTC
57 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

The First Sam­ple Gives the Most Information

Mark Xu24 Dec 2020 20:39 UTC
90 points
8 comments1 min readLW link
(markxu.com)

[Question] What ev­i­dence will tell us about the new strain? How are you up­dat­ing?

Zvi25 Dec 2020 21:37 UTC
82 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Perfec­tion­ism as depth-first search

MSRayne29 Dec 2020 1:49 UTC
5 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Book Re­view: On In­tel­li­gence by Jeff Hawk­ins (and San­dra Blakeslee)

Rafael Harth29 Dec 2020 19:48 UTC
20 points
7 comments14 min readLW link

The map and ter­ri­tory of NFT art

frcassarino29 Dec 2020 11:45 UTC
27 points
13 comments5 min readLW link
(federicorcassarino.substack.com)

Stock mar­ket hints for 2021 from past crashes

bfinn30 Dec 2020 20:05 UTC
19 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

SpaceX will have mas­sive im­pact in the next decade

ChristianKl31 Dec 2020 1:04 UTC
35 points
30 comments2 min readLW link

A Sim­plified Ver­sion of Per­spec­tive Solu­tion to the Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

dadadarren31 Dec 2020 18:27 UTC
5 points
10 comments5 min readLW link
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

Pre­dic­tions for 2021

UnexpectedValues31 Dec 2020 21:12 UTC
6 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2020

NunoSempere1 Jan 2021 16:07 UTC
12 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

More predictions

rockthecasbah2 Jan 2021 15:53 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What tech­ni­cal-ish books do you recom­mend that are read­able on Kin­dle?

Rudi C3 Jan 2021 20:54 UTC
3 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Ra­tional Ot­tawa Pre­dic­tions for 2021

eapache3 Jan 2021 20:53 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(grandunifiedempty.com)

The Sense-Mak­ing Web

Chris_Leong4 Jan 2021 6:17 UTC
35 points
18 comments6 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions for 2021 (+ a tem­plate for yours)

epiphi5 Jan 2021 3:35 UTC
17 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Why is loss of mus­cle cells not con­sid­ered one of the hal­l­marks of ag­ing?

ChristianKl5 Jan 2021 14:19 UTC
11 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Links for Dec 2020

ike5 Jan 2021 19:53 UTC
12 points
0 comments8 min readLW link
(www.facebook.com)

Cen­trally planned war

KatjaGrace6 Jan 2021 10:40 UTC
15 points
24 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Grokking illusionism

Joe Carlsmith6 Jan 2021 5:50 UTC
37 points
49 comments9 min readLW link

Les­sons from “The Book of My Life”

bmgarfinkel6 Jan 2021 22:40 UTC
99 points
3 comments16 min readLW link
(benmgarfinkel.wordpress.com)

Grad­ing my 2020 predictions

UnexpectedValues7 Jan 2021 0:33 UTC
7 points
0 comments11 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Why the out­side view sug­gests that longevity es­cape ve­loc­ity is a long time away and cry­on­ics is a much more fea­si­ble op­tion for those al­ive to­day: sig­nal-boost­ing a com­ment by Calm-Meet9916 on Reddit

Synaptic8 Jan 2021 17:20 UTC
31 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Jo­hannes Ke­pler, Sun Worshipper

Ruby9 Jan 2021 7:09 UTC
35 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

2020: Fore­cast­ing in Re­view.

NunoSempere10 Jan 2021 16:06 UTC
26 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

A differ­ent dictionary

KatjaGrace10 Jan 2021 6:30 UTC
16 points
1 comment2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

[Question] Base rate of RCT from de­vel­op­ing coun­tries find­ing un­ex­pected effects

MichaelLowe12 Jan 2021 1:57 UTC
18 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Any ex­am­ples of peo­ple an­a­lyz­ing/​cri­tiquing sci­en­tific stud­ies or pa­pers?

warrenjordan13 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
3 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

In­te­grat­ing the Lindy Effect

lsusr7 Sep 2019 17:38 UTC
48 points
9 comments2 min readLW link2 nominations1 review

Med­i­ta­tions on faith

Richard_Ngo15 Jan 2021 22:20 UTC
27 points
9 comments6 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

AR Glasses: Much more than you wanted to know

frcassarino16 Jan 2021 0:31 UTC
12 points
6 comments17 min readLW link
(federicorcassarino.substack.com)

[Question] Why do stocks go up?

tryactions17 Jan 2021 16:36 UTC
25 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How can I find trust­wor­thy dietary ad­vice?

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Jan 2021 13:11 UTC
30 points
22 comments1 min readLW link

What is go­ing on in the world?

KatjaGrace17 Jan 2021 11:30 UTC
80 points
47 comments3 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Use con­di­tional prob­a­bil­ities to clear up er­ror rate confusion

Maxwell Peterson17 Jan 2021 8:27 UTC
4 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Three types of Evidence

Rafael Harth19 Jan 2021 17:25 UTC
14 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Dis­cov­ery fic­tion for the Pythagorean theorem

riceissa19 Jan 2021 2:09 UTC
9 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

A Demo­cratic Currency

MikkW19 Jan 2021 5:32 UTC
11 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Matt Lev­ine on “Fraud is no fun with­out friends.”

Raemon19 Jan 2021 18:23 UTC
97 points
24 comments4 min readLW link
(www.bloomberg.com)

Deutsch and Yud­kowsky on sci­en­tific explanation

Richard_Ngo20 Jan 2021 1:00 UTC
24 points
19 comments6 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

The Tele­olog­i­cal Mechanism

G Gordon Worley III19 Jan 2021 23:58 UTC
5 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion: As­tra Zeneca ap­proval date

rockthecasbah19 Jan 2021 21:59 UTC
11 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Zen and Ra­tion­al­ity: Karma

G Gordon Worley III12 Jan 2021 20:56 UTC
11 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Multi-Tower Study Strategy

AllAmericanBreakfast21 Jan 2021 8:42 UTC
45 points
8 comments8 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] The Chrysan­the­mum and the Sword

lsusr22 Jan 2021 6:29 UTC
23 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How good are our mouse mod­els (psy­chol­ogy, biol­ogy, medicine, etc.), ig­nor­ing trans­la­tion into hu­mans, just in terms of un­der­stand­ing mice? (Same ques­tion for drosophila.)

Ruby22 Jan 2021 20:45 UTC
60 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­er­cise: Ta­boo “Should”

johnswentworth22 Jan 2021 21:02 UTC
85 points
24 comments9 min readLW link

Ten­ta­tive covid sur­face risk estimates

KatjaGrace25 Jan 2021 9:40 UTC
92 points
8 comments2 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

A per­spec­tive on co­vari­ate ad­just­ment and con­found­ing in ran­dom­ized ex­per­i­ments.

Darren25 Jan 2021 20:22 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

What is up with spiritu­al­ity?

KatjaGrace27 Jan 2021 6:20 UTC
20 points
14 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

Build Your Num­ber Sense

AllAmericanBreakfast27 Jan 2021 21:01 UTC
21 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Has any­one on LW writ­ten about ma­te­rial bot­tle­necks be­ing the main fac­tor in mak­ing any tech­nolog­i­cal progress?

George27 Jan 2021 14:14 UTC
11 points
48 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Did con­va­les­cent plasma ther­apy drive the evolu­tion of more in­fec­tious covid strains?

Angela Pretorius27 Jan 2021 6:16 UTC
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Where num­bers come from

Eigil Rischel28 Jan 2021 21:33 UTC
27 points
2 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] For those who ad­vo­cate Anki

jmh31 Jan 2021 0:01 UTC
19 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Smug­gled frames

Artyom Kazak1 Feb 2021 1:22 UTC
61 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2021

NunoSempere1 Feb 2021 23:07 UTC
19 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

Late-talk­ing kids and “Ein­stein syn­drome”

Steven Byrnes3 Feb 2021 15:16 UTC
29 points
19 comments5 min readLW link

Covid cafes

KatjaGrace3 Feb 2021 8:20 UTC
24 points
9 comments3 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

In­tu­itions about utilities

mingyuan6 Feb 2021 0:12 UTC
29 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Fake Frame­works for Zen Med­i­ta­tion (Sum­mary of Sek­ida’s Zen Train­ing)

G Gordon Worley III6 Feb 2021 15:38 UTC
52 points
10 comments10 min readLW link

Democ­racy, Bureau­cracy, Cen­tral Banking

Martin Sustrik7 Feb 2021 8:54 UTC
18 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

Why I Am Not in Charge

Zvi7 Feb 2021 18:20 UTC
139 points
22 comments25 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Met­ric se­lec­tion bias: why Moore’s law is less im­por­tant than you think

aaronb508 Feb 2021 0:21 UTC
18 points
10 comments6 min readLW link
(aaronbergman.substack.com)

His­tory of the Public Suffix List

jefftk7 Feb 2021 22:20 UTC
11 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Fix­ing The Good Reg­u­la­tor Theorem

johnswentworth9 Feb 2021 20:30 UTC
76 points
21 comments8 min readLW link

Book re­view: The Geog­ra­phy of Thought

PeterMcCluskey9 Feb 2021 18:47 UTC
72 points
37 comments5 min readLW link
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

Still Not in Charge

Zvi9 Feb 2021 16:00 UTC
46 points
26 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Un­wit­ting cult leaders

Kaj_Sotala11 Feb 2021 11:10 UTC
89 points
5 comments3 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

[Question] What does the FDA ac­tu­ally do be­tween get­ting the trial re­sults and hav­ing their meet­ing?

ChristianKl12 Feb 2021 13:08 UTC
28 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Su­per-fore­cast­ers as a ser­vice

frcassarino12 Feb 2021 13:35 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(federicorcassarino.substack.com)

Notes on Hen­rich’s “The WEIRDest Peo­ple in the World” (2020)

MichaelA14 Feb 2021 8:40 UTC
15 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Chi­nese History

lsusr15 Feb 2021 6:43 UTC
34 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Math­e­mat­i­cal Models of Progress?

abramdemski16 Feb 2021 0:21 UTC
28 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

He­lio­cen­trism in the an­cient era

ForensicOceanography16 Feb 2021 8:34 UTC
15 points
4 comments6 min readLW link
(forensicoceanography.wordpress.com)

Gen­er­al­ised mod­els as a category

Stuart_Armstrong16 Feb 2021 16:08 UTC
12 points
5 comments4 min readLW link

Prepar­ing to land on Jezero Crater, Mars: Notes from NASEM livestream

Yitz17 Feb 2021 19:35 UTC
3 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

On the Na­ture of Reputation

Martin Sustrik20 Feb 2021 12:50 UTC
16 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

The Kelly Cri­te­rion in 3D

lsusr20 Feb 2021 8:21 UTC
24 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

Ex­po­nen­tial growth is the baseline

jasoncrawford22 Feb 2021 2:08 UTC
27 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

The slopes to com­mon sense

George22 Feb 2021 19:22 UTC
47 points
19 comments8 min readLW link
(cerebralab.com)

[Fic­tion] Lena (MMAcevedo)

Kaj_Sotala23 Feb 2021 19:46 UTC
40 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(qntm.org)

Sur­vey on cor­ti­cal unifor­mity—an ex­pert am­plifi­ca­tion exercise

Jsevillamol23 Feb 2021 22:13 UTC
37 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

Differ­ent kinds of lan­guage proficiency

Kaj_Sotala26 Feb 2021 18:20 UTC
33 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(kajsotala.fi)

The Case for Pri­vacy Optimism

bmgarfinkel10 Mar 2020 20:30 UTC
43 points
1 comment32 min readLW link
(benmgarfinkel.wordpress.com)

Naïve Set The­ory—Part 1: Con­struc­tion of Sets

Sai Sasank Y28 Feb 2021 11:57 UTC
1 point
23 comments2 min readLW link

Kelly *is* (just) about log­a­r­ith­mic utility

abramdemski1 Mar 2021 20:02 UTC
69 points
18 comments12 min readLW link

[Question] Are the Born prob­a­bil­ities re­ally that mys­te­ri­ous?

Adele Lopez2 Mar 2021 3:08 UTC
43 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2021

NunoSempere1 Mar 2021 21:51 UTC
12 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Tap Water and Filtration

manaterra2 Mar 2021 3:45 UTC
15 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Some re­cent in­ter­views with AI/​math lu­mi­nar­ies.

fowlertm4 Mar 2021 1:26 UTC
0 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

A Semitech­ni­cal In­tro­duc­tory Dialogue on Solomonoff Induction

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Mar 2021 17:27 UTC
92 points
16 comments54 min readLW link

Why Selec­tive Breed­ing is a Bad Way to do Ge­netic Engineering

GeneSmith5 Mar 2021 2:30 UTC
10 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What (fea­si­ble) aug­mented senses would be use­ful or in­ter­est­ing?

AprilSR6 Mar 2021 4:28 UTC
8 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

The av­er­age North Korean mathematician

Elmer of Malmesbury7 Mar 2021 17:28 UTC
62 points
19 comments8 min readLW link
(www.telescopic-turnip.net)

Teach­ing to Compromise

Martin Sustrik7 Mar 2021 13:57 UTC
14 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Book Notes: Scal­ing, Why is An­i­mal Size so Im­por­tant?

ketchupduck7 Mar 2021 20:16 UTC
19 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

[Lec­ture Club] Awak­en­ing from the Mean­ing Crisis

Vaniver8 Mar 2021 15:22 UTC
59 points
140 comments1 min readLW link

What I’d change about differ­ent philos­o­phy fields

Rob Bensinger8 Mar 2021 18:25 UTC
55 points
52 comments4 min readLW link

Will Mar­tian G be enough to make healthy baseline ba­bies?

BossSleepy9 Mar 2021 3:30 UTC
4 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

D&D.Sci III Eval­u­a­tion and Ruleset

abstractapplic8 Mar 2021 23:01 UTC
13 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

[Pre­dic­tion] The Con­se­quences of Rad­i­cal Reform

lsusr9 Mar 2021 23:05 UTC
36 points
16 comments5 min readLW link

Defla­tion­ism isn’t the solu­tion to philos­o­phy’s woes

Rob Bensinger10 Mar 2021 0:20 UTC
61 points
46 comments8 min readLW link

Quaran­tine variety

KatjaGrace10 Mar 2021 8:40 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

An­i­mal faces

KatjaGrace11 Mar 2021 8:50 UTC
45 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(worldspiritsockpuppet.com)

[Question] Ri­gor­ous poli­ti­cal sci­ence?

abramdemski12 Mar 2021 15:30 UTC
23 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­iz­ing Power to multi-agent games

22 Mar 2021 2:41 UTC
43 points
17 comments7 min readLW link

Fe­bru­ary 2021 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwern13 Mar 2021 14:57 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Blue is arbitrary

lsusr14 Mar 2021 9:04 UTC
55 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

What’s So Bad About Ad-Hoc Math­e­mat­i­cal Defi­ni­tions?

johnswentworth15 Mar 2021 21:51 UTC
104 points
52 comments7 min readLW link

Con­ver­sa­tion Ex­change Statistics

lsusr16 Mar 2021 8:50 UTC
22 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

On At­tempts to Tran­scend our Models of Numbers

Chris_Leong17 Mar 2021 8:37 UTC
9 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

“Ob­jec­tive vs So­cial Real­ity” vs “Si­mu­lacra 1/​3″

Raemon17 Mar 2021 22:15 UTC
27 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Is RL in­volved in sen­sory pro­cess­ing?

Steven Byrnes18 Mar 2021 13:57 UTC
14 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Acetyl­choline = Learn­ing rate (aka plas­tic­ity)

Steven Byrnes18 Mar 2021 13:57 UTC
29 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Book Club: Soft­ware De­sign for Flexibility

stuhlmueller18 Mar 2021 15:42 UTC
42 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Why sig­moids are so hard to predict

Stuart_Armstrong18 Mar 2021 18:21 UTC
41 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Chaos In­duces Abstractions

johnswentworth18 Mar 2021 20:08 UTC
79 points
11 comments7 min readLW link

Jean Mon­net: The Guerilla Bureaucrat

Martin Sustrik20 Mar 2021 10:37 UTC
154 points
19 comments18 min readLW link

“Med­i­ta­tion for skep­tics” – a re­view of two books, and some thoughts

Sherrinford20 Mar 2021 23:35 UTC
16 points
4 comments12 min readLW link

Trust sta­tus sigmoidally

AllAmericanBreakfast20 Mar 2021 19:50 UTC
14 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Fish­e­rian Ru­n­away as a de­ci­sion-the­o­retic problem

Bunthut20 Mar 2021 16:34 UTC
10 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

A dash­board for progress

jasoncrawford21 Mar 2021 3:51 UTC
24 points
8 comments2 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Mov­ing Data Around is Slow

SatvikBeri22 Mar 2021 2:36 UTC
34 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

My re­search methodology

paulfchristiano22 Mar 2021 21:20 UTC
137 points
35 comments16 min readLW link
(ai-alignment.com)

Thirty-three ran­domly se­lected bioethics papers

Rob Bensinger22 Mar 2021 21:38 UTC
103 points
45 comments50 min readLW link

The dan­ger of er­ror descriptions

gistya25 Mar 2021 20:05 UTC
−1 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Com­mu­ni­ca­tion Re­quires Com­mon In­ter­ests or Differ­en­tial Sig­nal Costs

Zack_M_Davis26 Mar 2021 6:41 UTC
22 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

Core Path­ways of Aging

johnswentworth28 Mar 2021 0:31 UTC
110 points
54 comments22 min readLW link

The (not so) para­dox­i­cal asym­me­try be­tween po­si­tion and momentum

ejenner28 Mar 2021 13:31 UTC
17 points
5 comments4 min readLW link

In­framea­sures and Do­main Theory

Diffractor28 Mar 2021 9:19 UTC
26 points
3 comments33 min readLW link

In­fra-Do­main Proofs 2

Diffractor28 Mar 2021 9:15 UTC
13 points
0 comments21 min readLW link

In­fra-Do­main proofs 1

Diffractor28 Mar 2021 9:16 UTC
13 points
0 comments23 min readLW link

Bureau­cracy is a world of magic

dominicq29 Mar 2021 12:41 UTC
63 points
28 comments3 min readLW link

Sys­tem­atiz­ing Epistemics: Prin­ci­ples for Re­solv­ing Forecasts

Davidmanheim29 Mar 2021 20:46 UTC
33 points
8 comments11 min readLW link

Pro­gres­sive High­light­ing: Pick­ing What To Make Into Flashcards

AllAmericanBreakfast29 Mar 2021 22:57 UTC
48 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Ju­lia Galef and Matt Ygle­sias on bioethics and “ethics ex­per­tise”

Rob Bensinger30 Mar 2021 3:06 UTC
44 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

What Hap­pens To Your Brain When You Write?

mikejari30 Mar 2021 7:47 UTC
3 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] TAI?

Logan Zoellner30 Mar 2021 12:41 UTC
12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

A com­mand-line gram­mar of graphics

philh30 Mar 2021 20:30 UTC
20 points
10 comments3 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Spec­u­la­tions Con­cern­ing the First Free-ish Pre­dic­tion Market

mike_hawke31 Mar 2021 3:20 UTC
29 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Could billions spa­cially dis­con­nected “Boltz­mann neu­rons” give rise to con­scious­ness?

Szymon Kucharski31 Mar 2021 19:58 UTC
5 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

What Do We Know About The Con­scious­ness, Any­way?

alex_lw31 Mar 2021 23:30 UTC
11 points
50 comments24 min readLW link

Bridg­ing Two Eso­teric 4-Value Log­ics Us­ing Quan­tum Physics: An­swered Mo­dal Logic vs Catuṣkoṭi

Sven Nilsen1 Apr 2021 0:34 UTC
4 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2021

NunoSempere1 Apr 2021 17:12 UTC
22 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

How Crypto Crosses the Moat

adaminoue1 Apr 2021 15:26 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.inoue.today)

The in­no­cent gene

Joe Carlsmith5 Apr 2021 3:31 UTC
37 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

His­tor­i­cal Ex­am­ples of Op­po­si­tion to Tech­nolog­i­cal Progress

chw5 Apr 2021 21:26 UTC
17 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

I’m from a par­allel Earth with much higher co­or­di­na­tion: AMA

5 Apr 2021 22:09 UTC
94 points
19 comments61 min readLW link

An In­tro­duc­tion to A Crack­pot Physics

ACrackedPot5 Apr 2021 23:59 UTC
−4 points
0 comments11 min readLW link

Test­ing The Nat­u­ral Ab­strac­tion Hy­poth­e­sis: Pro­ject Intro

johnswentworth6 Apr 2021 21:24 UTC
108 points
15 comments6 min readLW link

2020 pre­dic­tions—Poli­tics, Econ, Tech

Bucky7 Apr 2021 14:10 UTC
8 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Com­pound­ing In­cum­bent Advantage

adaminoue7 Apr 2021 13:40 UTC
3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(www.inoue.today)

In­sights from “All of Statis­tics”: Statis­ti­cal Inference

Rafael Harth8 Apr 2021 17:49 UTC
6 points
0 comments18 min readLW link

In­sights from “All of Statis­tics”: Probability

Rafael Harth8 Apr 2021 17:48 UTC
6 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

High­lights from The Au­to­bi­og­ra­phy of An­drew Carnegie

jasoncrawford8 Apr 2021 22:03 UTC
87 points
7 comments19 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Spe­cial­iz­ing in Prob­lems We Don’t Understand

johnswentworth10 Apr 2021 22:40 UTC
99 points
26 comments8 min readLW link

A Brief Re­view of Cur­rent and Near-Fu­ture Meth­ods of Ge­netic Engineering

GeneSmith10 Apr 2021 19:16 UTC
64 points
31 comments15 min readLW link

On Falsify­ing the Si­mu­la­tion Hy­poth­e­sis (or Em­brac­ing its Pre­dic­tions)

Lorenzo Rex12 Apr 2021 0:12 UTC
8 points
15 comments5 min readLW link

The Case for Ex­treme Vac­cine Effectiveness

Ruby13 Apr 2021 21:08 UTC
120 points
24 comments22 min readLW link

Placebo effect re­port: chi­ro­prac­tic adjustment

supposedlyfun15 Apr 2021 2:50 UTC
15 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

The Vari­a­tional Char­ac­ter­i­za­tion of Expectation

Zachary Robertson16 Apr 2021 0:12 UTC
3 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Most Analo­gies Are Wrong

Jemist16 Apr 2021 19:53 UTC
9 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

All is fair in love and war, on Zero-sum games in life

Ratios17 Apr 2021 2:11 UTC
4 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

Book re­view and policy dis­cus­sion: di­ver­sity and complexity

victorsintnicolaas17 Apr 2021 11:36 UTC
3 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Types of generalism

Nora_Ammann20 Apr 2021 8:22 UTC
24 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Hard vs Soft in fields as at­ti­tudes to­wards model collision

Jemist20 Apr 2021 18:57 UTC
13 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Thiel on se­crets and indefiniteness

Rob Bensinger20 Apr 2021 21:59 UTC
26 points
1 comment9 min readLW link

A Crack­pot Physics: Time, Spe­cial Rel­a­tivity, and Why Bother?

ACrackedPot21 Apr 2021 20:17 UTC
0 points
0 comments11 min readLW link

Löb’s the­o­rem sim­ply shows that Peano ar­ith­metic can­not prove its own soundness

rhaps0dy22 Apr 2021 9:17 UTC
2 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Fibromyal­gia, Pain & De­pres­sion. How much is due to phys­i­cal mis­al­ign­ment?

leggi29 Oct 2019 14:58 UTC
5 points
4 comments18 min readLW link

Should the­o­ries have a con­trol group

George24 Apr 2020 14:45 UTC
5 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
(blog.cerebralab.com)

A Book Review

Zack_M_Davis28 Apr 2020 17:43 UTC
15 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(unremediatedgender.space)

In­di­vi­d­ual Ra­tion­al­ity Needn’t Gen­er­al­ize to Ra­tional Consensus

Akshat Mahajan4 May 2020 22:53 UTC
42 points
16 comments4 min readLW link

Kids and Mo­ral Agency

jefftk8 May 2020 12:50 UTC
30 points
9 comments1 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Nihilism doesn’t matter

Bob Jacobs21 May 2020 18:19 UTC
7 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

The Valley of Bad Theory

johnswentworth6 Oct 2018 3:06 UTC
63 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

Will AI un­dergo dis­con­tin­u­ous progress?

SDM21 Feb 2020 22:16 UTC
25 points
20 comments20 min readLW link

Coron­avirus as a test-run for X-risks

SDM13 Jun 2020 21:00 UTC
66 points
10 comments18 min readLW link

A Sketch of Good Communication

Ben Pace31 Mar 2018 22:48 UTC
108 points
34 comments3 min readLW link

Ed­u­ca­tion 2.0 — A brand new ed­u­ca­tion system

aryan15 Jul 2020 10:09 UTC
−8 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Mu­si­cal Outgroups

eapache19 Jul 2020 22:55 UTC
8 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

The abrupt­ness of nu­clear weapons

paulfchristiano25 Feb 2018 17:40 UTC
46 points
35 comments2 min readLW link

Se­cu­rity Mind­set and Or­di­nary Paranoia

Eliezer Yudkowsky25 Nov 2017 17:53 UTC
74 points
21 comments29 min readLW link

Self-fulfilling correlations

PhilGoetz26 Aug 2010 21:07 UTC
139 points
50 comments3 min readLW link

Life at Three Tails of the Bell Curve

lsusr27 Jun 2020 8:49 UTC
56 points
8 comments4 min readLW link

Gears in understanding

Valentine12 May 2017 0:36 UTC
124 points
36 comments10 min readLW link

What can the prin­ci­pal-agent liter­a­ture tell us about AI risk?

Alexis Carlier8 Feb 2020 21:28 UTC
99 points
31 comments16 min readLW link

In­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

So8res9 May 2019 19:16 UTC
66 points
22 comments5 min readLW link

Science like a chef

adamzerner8 Feb 2018 21:23 UTC
32 points
17 comments3 min readLW link

How Doomed are Large Or­ga­ni­za­tions?

Zvi21 Jan 2020 12:20 UTC
76 points
42 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Sepa­ra­tion of Concerns

abramdemski23 May 2019 21:47 UTC
66 points
30 comments6 min readLW link1 nomination

Six Plau­si­ble Meta-Eth­i­cal Alternatives

Wei_Dai6 Aug 2014 0:04 UTC
67 points
36 comments3 min readLW link

The Sim­ple Math of Everything

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Nov 2007 22:42 UTC
69 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

1001 Pre­dic­tionBook Nights

gwern8 Oct 2011 16:04 UTC
72 points
49 comments1 min readLW link

News ⊂ Advertising

lsusr22 Jun 2020 19:19 UTC
36 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

“But that’s your job”: why or­gani­sa­tions can work

Stuart_Armstrong5 Feb 2020 12:25 UTC
68 points
12 comments4 min readLW link

What is a School?

Zvi13 Mar 2020 22:00 UTC
51 points
7 comments1 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Franken­stein De­lenda Est

eapache10 Jul 2020 14:38 UTC
11 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Fight the Power

Jacob Falkovich22 Jun 2020 2:19 UTC
23 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Con­figu­ra­tions and Amplitude

Eliezer Yudkowsky11 Apr 2008 3:14 UTC
47 points
390 comments10 min readLW link

No One Knows What Science Doesn’t Know

Eliezer Yudkowsky25 Oct 2007 23:47 UTC
61 points
107 comments3 min readLW link

What Botswana Can Teach Us About Poli­ti­cal Stability

Samo Burja9 May 2019 18:30 UTC
40 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Joint Configurations

Eliezer Yudkowsky11 Apr 2008 5:00 UTC
50 points
40 comments4 min readLW link

Noisy Poll Re­sults And Rep­tilian Mus­lim Cli­ma­tol­o­gists from Mars

Scott Alexander12 Apr 2013 10:49 UTC
23 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

An­gry Atoms

Eliezer Yudkowsky31 Mar 2008 0:28 UTC
51 points
60 comments4 min readLW link

Bleach

jefftk4 Mar 2020 3:20 UTC
32 points
2 comments3 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

Knowl­edge is Freedom

Scott Garrabrant9 Feb 2018 5:24 UTC
29 points
16 comments6 min readLW link

Form Your Own Opinions

Ben Pace28 Apr 2018 19:50 UTC
33 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Lay­ers of Ex­per­tise and the Curse of Curiosity

Gyrodiot12 Feb 2019 23:41 UTC
19 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

So­phie Grouchy on A Build-Break Model of Cooperation

weft25 May 2018 14:55 UTC
23 points
6 comments8 min readLW link
(sophiegrouchy.wordpress.com)

How to pick your categories

[deleted]11 Nov 2010 15:13 UTC
78 points
22 comments6 min readLW link

Me­gapro­ject management

ryan_b11 Jan 2019 17:08 UTC
55 points
11 comments5 min readLW link2 nominations1 review

Burnout: What it is and how to Treat it.

Elizabeth7 Nov 2018 22:02 UTC
49 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

How fea­si­ble is long-range fore­cast­ing?

Ben Pace10 Oct 2019 22:11 UTC
40 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

On Defense Mechanisms

Quaerendo4 Mar 2018 18:53 UTC
25 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

The Three Stages Of Model Development

katerinjo22 Feb 2018 14:33 UTC
17 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

A vot­ing the­ory primer for rationalists

Jameson Quinn12 Apr 2018 15:15 UTC
181 points
91 comments17 min readLW link

In­tel­lec­tual Hip­sters and Meta-Contrarianism

Scott Alexander13 Sep 2010 21:36 UTC
267 points
360 comments8 min readLW link

Cred­i­bil­ity of the CDC on SARS-CoV-2

7 Mar 2020 2:00 UTC
216 points
117 comments6 min readLW link

Lizard Jock­ey­ing for Fun and Profit

ialdabaoth10 Nov 2017 18:51 UTC
24 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

Me­mory, nu­tri­tion, mo­ti­va­tion, and genes

PhilGoetz26 Feb 2013 5:25 UTC
24 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Cri­tiquing Gary Taubes, Part 2: Atk­ins Redux

ChrisHallquist30 Dec 2013 0:58 UTC
7 points
191 comments4 min readLW link

Cri­tiquing Gary Taubes, Part 3: Did the US Govern­ment Give Us Ab­surd Ad­vice About Su­gar?

ChrisHallquist30 Dec 2013 0:58 UTC
8 points
153 comments6 min readLW link

Prospect­ing for Con­cep­tual Holes

lsusr30 Oct 2019 8:34 UTC
61 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Hy­po­thet­i­cals: The Direct Ap­pli­ca­tion Fallacy

Chris_Leong9 May 2018 14:23 UTC
21 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

En­tan­gled Truths, Con­ta­gious Lies

Eliezer Yudkowsky15 Oct 2008 23:39 UTC
61 points
42 comments4 min readLW link

Is the World Get­ting Bet­ter? A brief sum­mary of re­cent debate

ErickBall6 Feb 2019 17:38 UTC
35 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(capx.co)

How to Un­der­stand and Miti­gate Risk

Matt Goldenberg12 Mar 2019 10:14 UTC
55 points
30 comments16 min readLW link

“Every­thing is Cor­re­lated”: An An­thol­ogy of the Psy­chol­ogy Debate

gwern27 Apr 2019 13:48 UTC
40 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

Cat­e­gories: mod­els of models

countedblessings9 Oct 2019 2:45 UTC
44 points
18 comments12 min readLW link

Philos­o­phy as low-en­ergy approximation

Charlie Steiner5 Feb 2019 19:34 UTC
39 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How Can Peo­ple Eval­u­ate Com­plex Ques­tions Con­sis­tently?

Elizabeth26 Aug 2019 20:33 UTC
46 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

How Should We Cri­tique Re­search? A De­ci­sion Perspective

gwern14 Jul 2019 22:51 UTC
46 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

In­tel­lec­tual Dark Matter

Samo Burja16 Jul 2019 15:20 UTC
43 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(medium.com)

Hearsay, Dou­ble Hearsay, and Bayesian Updates

Mass_Driver16 Feb 2012 22:31 UTC
67 points
107 comments6 min readLW link

Defin­ing “An­timeme”

lsusr26 Dec 2019 9:35 UTC
15 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Peck­ing Order and Flight Leadership

sarahconstantin29 Apr 2019 20:30 UTC
43 points
18 comments3 min readLW link
(srconstantin.wordpress.com)

Minor, per­spec­tive chang­ing facts

Stuart_Armstrong22 Apr 2013 19:01 UTC
58 points
158 comments1 min readLW link

What Are Prob­a­bil­ities, Any­way?

Wei_Dai11 Dec 2009 0:25 UTC
39 points
89 comments2 min readLW link

Com­plete Class: Con­se­quen­tial­ist Foundations

abramdemski11 Jul 2018 1:57 UTC
39 points
34 comments13 min readLW link

Cor­re­spon­dence vi­su­al­iza­tions for differ­ent in­ter­pre­ta­tions of “prob­a­bil­ity”

So8res10 May 2019 17:10 UTC
42 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Ac­ti­va­tion En­er­gies and Uncertainty

whpearson1 Nov 2017 10:23 UTC
19 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

The Mean­ing of Right

Eliezer Yudkowsky29 Jul 2008 1:28 UTC
43 points
152 comments23 min readLW link

Set­ting Up Metaethics

Eliezer Yudkowsky28 Jul 2008 2:25 UTC
20 points
34 comments4 min readLW link

Chang­ing Your Metaethics

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 Jul 2008 12:36 UTC
36 points
21 comments5 min readLW link

Is Mo­ral­ity Given?

Eliezer Yudkowsky6 Jul 2008 8:12 UTC
26 points
100 comments8 min readLW link

Mo­ral Complexities

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Jul 2008 6:43 UTC
22 points
36 comments1 min readLW link

The Be­drock of Fairness

Eliezer Yudkowsky3 Jul 2008 6:00 UTC
40 points
102 comments5 min readLW link

Could Any­thing Be Right?

Eliezer Yudkowsky18 Jul 2008 7:19 UTC
37 points
39 comments6 min readLW link

This Ter­ri­tory Does Not Exist

ike13 Aug 2020 0:30 UTC
7 points
199 comments7 min readLW link

Many-wor­lds ver­sus dis­crete knowledge

jessicata13 Aug 2020 18:35 UTC
24 points
27 comments1 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

[Link] “Fewer than X% of Amer­i­cans know Y”

Nisan10 Oct 2012 16:59 UTC
57 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

When (Not) To Use Probabilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky23 Jul 2008 10:58 UTC
41 points
44 comments6 min readLW link

How does per­son­al­ity vary across US cities?

JonahS20 Dec 2016 8:00 UTC
60 points
16 comments6 min readLW link

Ap­ply­ing util­ity func­tions to hu­mans con­sid­ered harmful

Kaj_Sotala3 Feb 2010 19:22 UTC
35 points
116 comments5 min readLW link

[Link] A gen­tle video in­tro­duc­tion to game the­ory

[deleted]13 Dec 2011 8:52 UTC
46 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

Real­ity has a sur­pris­ing amount of detail

jsalvatier13 May 2017 20:02 UTC
56 points
21 comments1 min readLW link
(johnsalvatier.org)

Real­ity is weirdly normal

Rob Bensinger25 Aug 2013 19:29 UTC
56 points
81 comments5 min readLW link

Univer­sal Law

Eliezer Yudkowsky29 Apr 2007 6:41 UTC
63 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Acausal romance

lukeprog25 Feb 2012 9:13 UTC
31 points
37 comments1 min readLW link

Con­fused as to use­ful­ness of ‘con­scious­ness’ as a concept

KnaveOfAllTrades13 Jul 2014 11:01 UTC
54 points
230 comments7 min readLW link

Test­ing the Effi­cacy of Disagree­ment Re­s­olu­tion Tech­niques (and a Pro­posal for Test­ing Dou­ble Crux)

Ronny21 Oct 2019 22:57 UTC
33 points
4 comments15 min readLW link

[Question] What au­thors con­sis­tently give ac­cu­rate pic­tures of com­plex top­ics they dis­cuss?

seez21 Aug 2019 0:09 UTC
34 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

To what de­gree do you model peo­ple as agents?

Swimmer96325 Aug 2013 19:29 UTC
46 points
133 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Hard to find fac­tors mess­ing up ex­per­i­ments: Ex­am­ples?

Hazard15 Nov 2019 17:46 UTC
32 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

In­spec­tion Para­dox as a Driver of Group Separation

shminux17 Aug 2019 21:47 UTC
29 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

By de­fault, avoid am­bigu­ous dis­tant situations

Stuart_Armstrong21 May 2019 14:48 UTC
33 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

The Do­main of Your Utility Function

Peter_de_Blanc23 Jun 2009 4:58 UTC
35 points
99 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How do we iden­tify bot­tle­necks to sci­en­tific and tech­nolog­i­cal progress?

NaiveTortoise31 Dec 2018 20:21 UTC
29 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

A hun­dred Shakespeares

Stuart_Armstrong11 Dec 2018 23:11 UTC
29 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

The State of Affairs

Jacob Falkovich3 May 2019 16:18 UTC
30 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

Nat­u­ral Laws Are De­scrip­tions, not Rules

pragmatist8 Aug 2012 4:27 UTC
39 points
236 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] What’s your big idea?

G Gordon Worley III18 Oct 2019 15:47 UTC
27 points
63 comments1 min readLW link

Is That Your True Re­jec­tion? by Eliezer Yud­kowsky @ Cato Unbound

XiXiDu7 Sep 2011 18:27 UTC
44 points
83 comments1 min readLW link

Episte­mol­ogy and the Psy­chol­ogy of Hu­man Judgment

badger28 May 2011 5:15 UTC
43 points
9 comments11 min readLW link

An Agent is a Wor­ldline in Teg­mark V

komponisto12 Jul 2018 5:12 UTC
27 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Risk aver­sion does not ex­plain peo­ple’s bet­ting behaviours

Stuart_Armstrong20 Aug 2012 12:38 UTC
14 points
36 comments2 min readLW link

Risk is not em­piri­cally cor­re­lated with return

jsalvatier22 Nov 2010 5:31 UTC
11 points
28 comments2 min readLW link

Risk of Mass Hu­man Suffer­ing /​ Ex­tinc­tion due to Cli­mate Emer­gency

willfranks14 Mar 2019 18:32 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Risk aver­sion vs. con­cave util­ity function

dvasya31 Jan 2012 6:25 UTC
3 points
35 comments3 min readLW link

Risk and un­cer­tainty: A false di­chotomy?

MichaelA18 Jan 2020 3:09 UTC
3 points
9 comments20 min readLW link

[Question] How can guessti­mates work?

jacobjacob10 Jul 2019 19:33 UTC
24 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Levels of AI Self-Im­prove­ment

avturchin29 Apr 2018 11:45 UTC
9 points
0 comments39 min readLW link

Distinct Configurations

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 Apr 2008 4:42 UTC
49 points
23 comments6 min readLW link

Col­lapse Postulates

Eliezer Yudkowsky9 May 2008 7:49 UTC
41 points
64 comments3 min readLW link

De­co­her­ence is Simple

Eliezer Yudkowsky6 May 2008 7:44 UTC
50 points
61 comments11 min readLW link

De­co­her­ence is Falsifi­able and Testable

Eliezer Yudkowsky7 May 2008 7:54 UTC
37 points
40 comments9 min readLW link

Quan­tum Non-Realism

Eliezer Yudkowsky8 May 2008 5:27 UTC
37 points
37 comments8 min readLW link

Quan­tum com­put­ing for the de­ter­mined (Link)

XiXiDu13 Jun 2011 17:42 UTC
23 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Quan­tum Joint Con­figu­ra­tion ar­ti­cle: need help from physicists

mwengler22 Dec 2010 18:32 UTC
25 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Quan­tum Me­chan­ics, Noth­ing to do with Consciousness

Donald Hobson26 Nov 2018 18:59 UTC
10 points
27 comments3 min readLW link

The In­spec­tion Para­dox is Everywhere

Chris_Leong15 Nov 2018 10:55 UTC
24 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(allendowney.blogspot.com)

The Web Browser is Not Your Client (But You Don’t Need To Know That)

Error22 Apr 2016 0:12 UTC
44 points
47 comments7 min readLW link

A Cri­tique of Lev­er­age Re­search’s Con­nec­tion Theory

peter_hurford20 Sep 2012 4:28 UTC
39 points
31 comments6 min readLW link

Con­nec­tion The­ory Has Less Than No Evidence

WilliamJames1 Aug 2014 10:17 UTC
31 points
50 comments2 min readLW link

Knigh­tian un­cer­tainty: a re­jec­tion of the MMEU rule

So8res26 Aug 2014 3:03 UTC
39 points
9 comments15 min readLW link

Beyond Rea­son­able Doubt? - Richard Dawk­ins [link]

Dreaded_Anomaly10 Feb 2012 2:28 UTC
33 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

Hier­ar­chy and wings

Benquo6 May 2019 18:39 UTC
25 points
22 comments2 min readLW link
(benjaminrosshoffman.com)

On See­ing Through ‘On See­ing Through: A Unified The­ory’: A Unified Theory

gwern15 Jun 2019 18:57 UTC
24 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

To un­der­stand, study edge cases

shminux2 Mar 2019 21:18 UTC
25 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Ev­i­den­tial De­ci­sion The­ory, Selec­tion Bias, and Refer­ence Classes

Qiaochu_Yuan8 Jul 2013 5:16 UTC
33 points
128 comments6 min readLW link

Over­con­fi­dent Pessimism

lukeprog24 Nov 2012 0:47 UTC
35 points
38 comments4 min readLW link

Analog­i­cal Rea­son­ing and Creativity

jacob_cannell1 Jul 2015 20:38 UTC
38 points
15 comments14 min readLW link

Philo­soph­i­cal self-ratification

jessicata3 Feb 2020 22:48 UTC
23 points
13 comments5 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Pre­dic­tive Rea­son­ing Systems

ozziegooen20 Feb 2019 19:44 UTC
25 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What to make of Aubrey de Grey’s pre­dic­tion?

Rafael Harth28 Feb 2020 19:25 UTC
23 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Time Binders

Hivewired24 Feb 2020 9:55 UTC
23 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(hivewired.wordpress.com)

June 2020 gw­ern.net newsletter

gwern2 Jul 2020 14:19 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.gwern.net)

[Question] Why hasn’t there been re­search on the effec­tive­ness of zinc for Covid-19?

Rudi C24 Aug 2020 20:58 UTC
12 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

The Values-to-Ac­tions De­ci­sion Chain

Remmelt Ellen30 Jun 2018 21:52 UTC
25 points
6 comments10 min readLW link

Indig­na­tion in re­sponse to the 1890 census

jasoncrawford8 Sep 2020 20:14 UTC
24 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(rootsofprogress.org)

Clar­ify­ing “What failure looks like” (part 1)

Sam Clarke20 Sep 2020 20:40 UTC
69 points
13 comments17 min readLW link

Up close and per­sonal with the world

dominicq25 Sep 2020 6:52 UTC
12 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

COVID Strat­egy 101

Mike Harris5 Oct 2020 19:30 UTC
55 points
7 comments18 min readLW link

Allow­ing Ex­ploita­bil­ity in Game Theory

Liam Goddard17 May 2020 23:19 UTC
2 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Philos­o­phy of Therapy

DaystarEld10 Oct 2020 20:12 UTC
105 points
28 comments16 min readLW link
(daystareld.com)

How to come up with ver­bal probabilities

jimmy29 Apr 2009 8:35 UTC
27 points
20 comments3 min readLW link

A Toy Model for Me­dia Sharing

Zachary Robertson17 Oct 2020 15:59 UTC
12 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Does play­ing hard to get work? AB test­ing for romance

amplemaple26 Oct 2020 15:29 UTC
16 points
26 comments5 min readLW link

The Con­scious Sorites Paradox

Eliezer Yudkowsky28 Apr 2008 2:58 UTC
11 points
41 comments5 min readLW link

The Com­edy of Behaviorism

Eliezer Yudkowsky2 Aug 2008 20:42 UTC
22 points
56 comments6 min readLW link

Con­tam­i­nated by Optimism

Eliezer Yudkowsky6 Aug 2008 0:26 UTC
17 points
78 comments7 min readLW link

Fried­man’s “Pre­dic­tion vs. Ex­pla­na­tion”

Eliezer Yudkowsky29 Sep 2008 6:15 UTC
9 points
79 comments1 min readLW link

To­tal Nano Domination

Eliezer Yudkowsky27 Nov 2008 9:54 UTC
19 points
23 comments10 min readLW link

Disjunc­tions, An­tipre­dic­tions, Etc.

Eliezer Yudkowsky9 Dec 2008 15:13 UTC
27 points
26 comments5 min readLW link

Get­ting Nearer

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Jan 2009 9:28 UTC
16 points
23 comments3 min readLW link

In­vest­ing for the Long Slump

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Jan 2009 8:56 UTC
11 points
54 comments1 min readLW link

Lies and Secrets

steven04618 Mar 2009 14:43 UTC
18 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Two rea­sons to ex­pect a peace­ful change of power in the US

rockthecasbah8 Nov 2020 17:13 UTC
11 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Where Do We Go From Here?

eapache8 Nov 2020 19:53 UTC
7 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Read­ing/​listen­ing list for the US failing or other sig­nifi­cant shifts?

Nicole Ross13 Nov 2020 15:34 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Without models

RichardKennaway4 May 2009 11:31 UTC
19 points
56 comments7 min readLW link

Ex­am­ples of Measures

Maxwell Peterson15 Nov 2020 1:44 UTC
20 points
20 comments2 min readLW link

Con­sider Rep­re­sen­ta­tive Data Sets

Vladimir_Nesov6 May 2009 1:49 UTC
12 points
15 comments5 min readLW link

Eth2 Stak­ing ex­plained as a Fi­nan­cial Instrument

Annapurna2 Dec 2020 3:33 UTC
18 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

How We Failed COVID-19

LukeOnline2 Dec 2020 21:29 UTC
16 points
7 comments7 min readLW link