Author, The Roots of Progress (rootsofprogress.org). Part-time tech consultant, Our World in Data. Former software engineering manager and tech startup founder.
jasoncrawford(Jason Crawford)
Karma: 1,873
Great! Merkel made a good statement also. But the praise should be coming from world leaders everywhere.
How to end stagnation?
Exponential growth is the baseline
Interesting, but I think you’re underestimating the impact of other general-purpose technologies, such as in energy or manufacturing. New energy sources can be applied broadly across many areas, for instance.
One clarification: This is about the technological frontier, not about global development. See my followup post.
That’s a great way of putting it
Clarifications on tech stagnation
Some hypotheses for “why stagnation” in my review of Where Is My Flying Car?
Yes, I put logistics under transportation. Transportation of cargo has always been more important than passenger travel.
Containerization was huge, but it mostly happened 50+ years ago.
Ah, you are from Eastern Europe? To clarify, the stagnation hypothesis is about the frontier of technological development in the wealthiest countries. I don’t think there has necessarily been stagnation in global development.
This analysis, and the stagnation debate in general, is really about the technological frontier. Global development overall has not necessarily been stagnating—India and China have seen huge growth in the last 50 years.
There was far more progress in aviation from 1920–1970 than from 1970–2020. In 1920, planes were still mostly made of wood and fabric. By 1970 most planes had jet engines and flew at ~600mph. Today planes actually fly a bit slower than they did in 1970. Yes, there has been progress in safety and cost, but it doesn’t compare to the previous 50-year period.
Similar pattern for automobiles and even highways.
Also the phonograph, telegraph, telephone, radio, and television! If “information” wasn’t a category before the late 1800s, it was by then.
Large orgs can get things done, that’s true.
In this post I specifically referred to the centralization and bureaucratization of research funding, e.g., the consolidation of research funding under the NIH/NSF.
Thanks! I had to start from the ground level to build up to this perspective…
Maybe, see Dustin’s comment above for related discussion
I’m not convinced by the optimists, either, and ADS made some good points. This post was laying the foundation for my response. With this framework I think you can analyze things in at least a slightly more rigorous way.
Yup, here is a roundup of recent “is stagnation over?” commentary: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/techno-optimism-roundup
I would like to address / reply to this soon.
Here are some introductory posts that explain why progress matters:
Smart, rich & free
Progress studies as a moral imperative
I agree that the bar keeps getting raised, and therefore progress gets more difficult. I don’t see why that implies any asymptote. (I wrote in a previous post why exponential growth should be our baseline, even as we pick off low-hanging fruit.)