Founder, The Roots of Progress (rootsofprogress.org). Part-time tech consultant, Our World in Data. Former software engineering manager and tech startup founder.
jasoncrawford(Jason Crawford)
Karma: 3,372
Descriptive vs. prescriptive optimism
Meetup in SF, Feb 26: Progress Studies + Effective Altruism
Interesting, how does Oslo do it? What are the infrastructure changes required?
Since writing this, I’ve run across even more examples:
The transatlantic telegraph was met with celebrations similar to the transcontinental railroad, etc. (somewhat premature as the first cable broke after two weeks). Towards the end of Samuel Morse’s life and/or at his death, he was similarly feted as a hero.
The Wright Brothers were given an enormous parade and celebration in their hometown of Dayton, OH when they returned from their first international demonstrations of the airplane.
I’d like to write these up at some point.
Related: The poetry of progress (another form of celebration, broadly construed)
One thing I’ve learned since then: I now think this is wrong:
To my (limited) understanding, this does not produce a significantly different immune response than injecting the antigen directly.
My understanding now (which is still quite limited) is that there is an improved immune response. If I have it right, the reason is that in a traditional vaccine, the antigen only exists in the bloodstream; with an mRNA vaccine, the antigen originates inside the cell—which more closely mimics how an actual virus works.
Thanks. Yeah, it’s an overloaded term: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanism_(disambiguation)
Progress, humanism, agency: An intellectual core for the progress movement
Yeah, I had to pull the data into a spreadsheet and look at the annual absolute and percent increase
I think it’s still a pretty good proxy. Quantitatively, correlation between energy usage and GDP is pretty high, even at higher income levels. Qualitatively, many things that would greatly improve quality of life would also use lots more energy: supersonic air travel, nanotech, flying cars, etc.
For electricity, I don’t think production and consumption are that different? Certainly not for the US
If you look at the second-to-last chart, energy production was growing exponentially 1950–73, then about linearly 1973–2005, and then not growing at all after that.
More power to you
I don’t think there’s more of it than in good times—there’s less. But you don’t need to get all the way to zero bread for a famine.
That’s possible, although she had ways of getting information. For instance, she would stand outside at an easel, painting, and eavesdrop on conversations.
The bonds of family and community: Poverty and cruelty among Russian peasants in the late 19th century
Meetup for The Roots of Progress in San Diego, Dec 1
We should totally bring this back.
This is a modern example I like: https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2013/07/04/a-fight-with-euclid/
Thanks for the detailed thoughts Alex! An incomplete reply:
I agree that “human well-being as the standard of value” leaves a lot open. That’s deliberate because I think that not everyone in this movement agrees on how exactly we should interpret, measure, etc. human well-being. Utilitarianism is one but not the only approach. It is an important topic for us to work out.
Agree with you about philosophy of risk / philosophy of safety. These are issues I am thinking about. For one preliminary, narrow case study see “How factories were made safe.”
I disagree that almost all progress is scientific/technological, if by that you mean that no significant moral/social progress has happened. The transition from monarchy to republics, the virtual end of slavery, and great progress in equal rights for women are three major points of moral/social progress that have occurred in the last ~250 years.