I’m upvoting this for basically one reason: after reading about the Top Gun Effect, I strongly updated towards “Hollywood movies can seriously mess up your mind”. Also this:
According to the US Navy, the box office success of Top Gun saw their recruitment rates balloon by a massive 500% in the year following the original movie’s release. This swell in numbers was due in no small part to the institution’s ability to tap into Top Gun fever when viewers of the movie were still at their most zealous and over-enthusiastic — as they walked out of the multiplex. The U.S. Navy set up recruiting stations outside of movie theaters when Top Gun was released, catching potential recruits as they were left the cinema hyped up by the movie’s dramatic climax. The strategy paid off, as the Navy soon had their highest number of applications in years.
If a single movie can make people do very serious life choices like signing up for the Navy, then we should probably be less confident in our ability to separate fiction from real-life.
(Also, I fully endorse the “avoid social networks like the plague” advice)
Like seriously: who is still in favor of slavery?!?!?!
You’d be surprised.
Doing a quick search, it seems that people are already trying to close the slavery loophole:
Friday, June 18, 2021, Washington, D.C. – As Juneteenth approaches this weekend, Oregon’s U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley and Congresswoman Nikema Williams (GA-05) have introduced the Abolition Amendment, which would strike the ‘Slavery Clause’ of the 13th Amendment that allows slavery to continue in the United States.[...]The introduction follows a wave of bills introduced in state legislatures across the country to eliminate the Slavery Clause from state constitutions. Three of those states—Utah, Nebraska, and Colorado—referred the measure to their citizens, and large majorities in each case approved the measure, including 80 percent of voters in Utah.
Friday, June 18, 2021, Washington, D.C. – As Juneteenth approaches this weekend, Oregon’s U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley and Congresswoman Nikema Williams (GA-05) have introduced the Abolition Amendment, which would strike the ‘Slavery Clause’ of the 13th Amendment that allows slavery to continue in the United States.
The introduction follows a wave of bills introduced in state legislatures across the country to eliminate the Slavery Clause from state constitutions. Three of those states—Utah, Nebraska, and Colorado—referred the measure to their citizens, and large majorities in each case approved the measure, including 80 percent of voters in Utah.
If we trust this data, the hidden implication is that approximately 20% of those Utah voters are indeed in favor of slavery (at least in principle).
On the matter of removing ‘slavery’ as punishment from the state’s constitution, four Tennessee senate Republicans took exception.Members Joey Hensley, Janice Bowling, Brian Kelsey, and Frank Nicely on March 15 voted against a bill put forward by Democrat Sen. Raumesh Akbari that would remove a constitutional clause allowing slavery as punishment for a crime.
On the matter of removing ‘slavery’ as punishment from the state’s constitution, four Tennessee senate Republicans took exception.
Members Joey Hensley, Janice Bowling, Brian Kelsey, and Frank Nicely on March 15 voted against a bill put forward by Democrat Sen. Raumesh Akbari that would remove a constitutional clause allowing slavery as punishment for a crime.
I didn’t miss the second part, I just reported another scenario which also was not hypothetical.
How many people live in your brother’s town? If the whole community is 500 people (and does not include a retirement home), then I’ve no problem believing that literally everyone got COVID and survived. But the Italian data from 2020 points to a very different direction.
For example, in this article, they report the total number of deaths per town (every death, not just covid-related) and compare 2020 to 2019:
Town of Alzano Lombardo (~13.000 people): 123 deaths in 2019, 239 deaths in 2020.
Town of Nembro (~11.000 people): 121 deaths in 2019, 263 deaths in 2020.
Town of Albino (~18.000 people): 182 deaths in 2019, 292 deaths in 2020.
Approximately +100% deaths in one year is just not something I can ignore.
Regarding fatality ratio in retirement homes, I was basically citing the worst case lingering in my memory (this, also from Nembro, with 39% deaths).
I suppose that you mean the paper linked in this post:
Claiming to have Covid-19 was correlated with claiming to have Long Covid.Actually having Covid-19 was not correlated with anything other than anosmia.
Claiming to have Covid-19 was correlated with claiming to have Long Covid.
Actually having Covid-19 was not correlated with anything other than anosmia.
That said, I definitely know people with ongoing health problem after recovering from covid, and I would be really confused if this turned out to be just a belief.
It seems that about half of everyone you knew got the supercold; the rest avoided it by good luck or had such mild cases that they didn’t notice. One person had a fever for ten days and almost had to go to the hospital, but they did eventually recover.Nobody that you know died, though you did hear about a friend’s elderly great-uncle who caught the cold and died of complications.
It seems that about half of everyone you knew got the supercold; the rest avoided it by good luck or had such mild cases that they didn’t notice. One person had a fever for ten days and almost had to go to the hospital, but they did eventually recover.
Nobody that you know died, though you did hear about a friend’s elderly great-uncle who caught the cold and died of complications.
In the contrafactual world where the pandemic just spreads in full force (without vaccines and without special measures to avoid contagion), I claim that your experience will be far worse than “no one in my social circle died, business as usual”. The best example here is probably Northern Italy in March 2020, and especially the city of Bergamo and its surroundings (where the pandemic did spread in full force for several days, before restrictions were imposed). In this context, maybe your social circle manages to avoid lethal consequences, but your local hospital explodes, your local graveyard explodes, your local retirement home abruptly lose half of the residents, your local newspaper reports seven pages of obituaries every day instead of one, and in your extended social circle there’s probably someone who has personally seen a convoy of military trucks transporting coffins away. I challenge anyone to live through this and conclude that there’s nothing especially bad going on.
Downvoted. Do you actually consider HPMOR non-rational and non-effective? It isn’t just fan fiction, it’s a tiny layer of fan fiction wrapped around the Sequences. Judging from the numerous comments in the Open Threads starting with “I’ve discovered LW through HPMOR”, I think we could argue that HPMOR was most effective than the Sequences themselves (at least with respect to the goal of creating more aspiring rationalists).
More generally, every single piece of fiction written by EY that I’ve read so far involves very rational characters doing very rational things, and that’s kind of the point. No one is saying that you shouldn’t write fiction in general, but I do say that you shouldn’t stop being rational while writing fiction. Or poetry. A rationalist poet should lean toward didactic poetry or the like (at least, that’s what I would do). I am probably biased against silly poetry in general, but I personally regard writing dumb verses as I regard eating unhealthy cookies… do it if you need them to have fun, but you shouldn’t be proud of this.
Poetry in general is not dead (yet), but the very specific form of poetry aimed at explaining scientific concepts (rather than simply celebrating progress) is very, very dead since at least 150 years. I am talking about didascalic poetry, which used to be a thing in past centuries but now is so neglected that I must link its Italian Wikipedia page, since the English version doesn’t even exist (also, my grammar checker stubbornly keeps underlining “didascalic”).
This makes me feel a bit sad. As you could guess, I’m a big fan of didascalic poetry, and would absolutely support someone actually trying to carve rhymes from math proofs (or blueprints, or the like) without sacrificing the scientific accuracy. Unfortunately, doing it at an acceptable level is quite hard. Two years ago I tried to write a basic graph theory course in octaves (for basically no reason other than “I really like graph theory and metric poetry”), but I got stuck with some awkward rhymes after three pages and left it rotting unfinished.
Just for convenience, I think the relevant piece of code is this.
Also, from what I read in that file, even normal votes are weighted. A regular upvote/downvote counts double if the user has at least 1000 karma (right?).
Many poor people are actually ashamed to ask for money, or even to accept it when it is freely offered. The latter is somewhat mysterious to me, especially in situations where it is already established that they are poor and in dire need of money (so it is not like they would reveal this fact by accepting the money).
Does not seem so mysterious to me. Even if everyone already know that you’re poor, deliberately asking for money (or even accepting charity) moves you to Officially Poor People™ and strongly increase your risk of feeling like a burden. Also, unless you’ve been poor all your life, I suppose that local gossipmongers can be quite nasty if they catch you accepting charity (“I never thought they would stoop so low!”).
Of course, things can get even worse. According to Wikipedia, the second most commonly listed motive for suicides in Japan is “Financial/Poverty related issues” (17% of suicides). Some people are willing to kill themselves rather than being ashamed to ask for money (this is quite mysterious even to me).
In a world where you can create whoever you want and fully resurrect people no matter when they died, life ethics will be drastically different from our own. People would kill themselves in spectacular ways just for fun, as today they would practice extreme sports (just to cite Prime Intellect).
In this case I recommend trying to automate the transcription process. You could use something like piano2notes (yet another AI browser tool) in order to get the midi/transcript directly from the mp3 file.
I’ve never used such services before today, but I’ve just checked the quality with a sample mp3 tune written on the fly in Musescore and it seems quite good (at least for tonal music with very recognizable melodies). Here’s the result:
IMAGE (original score above, automated transcription below)
There’s also a free service called soundslice that declares to be optimized for use cases like yours, but I didn’t check it.
I don’t understand why you explicitly want to visualize the frequencies if you’re already able to read (and write) sheet music. I mean, learning a tune from the frequency graph seems quite awkward compared to learning from the score… a fairly trained musician should be able to sing straight from the score without ever having heard the original (I can, at least for tonal music). If you can write the sheet yourself, or if you have a suitable MIDI file, the simplest thing you can do is to get Musescore and repeatedly playback the song.
Interestingly enough, the overwhelming majority of pre-1900 music is not titled (see this list for some exceptions). Back in the old days, it was quite common to write a whole symphony and just publish it as “Symphony No. 1”. More often than not, names that have become associated with a work (such as Bach’s Brandenburg Concertos) were not even assigned by the composer.
Unless this is regional variation in English, it’s advise or advize. (The second one may trigger ‘autocorrects’.)
Unless this is regional variation in English, it’s advise or advize. (The second one may trigger ‘autocorrects’.)
Uh, no regional variation, it was just my first typo on LW.
Fixed. I’ve also included a small update with some final thoughts.
Right, “conspire” was the wrong word (as others have noted, information asymmetry is enough, and I don’t think that manufacturers literally gather in smoke-filled rooms to adjust the lifespan of their products). But I still think Moloch to be a valid metaphor for a situation where:
customers are forced to buy short-lived products
manufacturers could unilaterally prolong the lifespan of their products at a small cost (or even a small gain), but they choose not to because they want to sell more now
long-lived products could be sold at higher prices
If extra durability/lifespan (beyond the ~15 years that things already last) were possible with a small increase in cost, why wouldn’t manufacturers compete on this axis?
Because Moloch. If at least one major manufacturer add extra lifespan, that forces the others to compete. But the real profit-maximizing move for major manufacturers as a whole is to conspire into selling short-lived stoves.
As for examples, one of my favorites is this (Samsung printers programmed to stop working after a fixed number of prints). The Wikipedia page linked in my first comment contains other examples.
a modern stove designed and built to last a hundred years would be too expensive. It would take a bigger engineering effort (fixed cost) and probably more/better materials (variable cost). And it’s totally unnecessary.
I’m a bit skeptical about this point. It seems reasonable to avoid focusing all the effort into designing a very long-lived stove, but I wouldn’t be too surprised to learn about someone who did the very opposite (intentionally designing short-lived stoves even if some minor modifications would have had large impact on their lifespan). I agree that new items are generally better than old items in many ways, but Planned obsolescence is a thing. According to Wikipedia, in 2015 the French National Assembly established jail terms of up to two years for manufacturers planning the failure of their products. Knowing this, I would strongly suspect that some manufacturers do plan the failure of their products. To me, this seems less like positive continual upgrading and more like Moloch...
I usually buy from local butchers. If you are willing to eat something other than steaks (eg liver, which is definitely much richer in vitamins), you should make sure to buy it as fresh as possible, and local butchers are probably the best option for freshness as they generally cut the meat on demand.
(or maybe I’m just generalizing from one example, please check the quality of your local butcher)
Something like “I’ve forgotten how to walk” appeals much more to me since it emphasizes my present lack of skills.
I would suggest “Forgot how to sit down”.