What matters is not how well your ballot reflects your preferences, but how well the outcome matches the preferences of the electorate. IRV can have very strange results where when a candidate starts to get more support it actually hurts them (http://zesty.ca/voting/sim/) and if voters/campaigns are strategic you can get worse outcomes than first past the post (http://electionscience.github.io/vse-sim/VSE/)
jefftk
Karma: 6,993
A “Yes on 2” board member posted a response on the FB side of this discussion: https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100184817106872?comment_id=10100184909856002
Summary:
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IRV has more of a track record which is useful for convincing people to support it
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“later-no-harm” matches real preferences well
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I like Ping’s simulations a lot! The two main problems with it are that by representing voter preferences as a plane there will always be a condorcet winner (when a lot of the weirdness and voting systems comes down to how they handle the cases when there isn’t one) and that assumes voters always vote their true preferences (when a lot of the weirdness in voting systems comes from strategic voting).
I’m Voting For Ranked Choice, But I Don’t Like It
Was number of children ever asked on an EA survey?
I think it’s the other way around: If your forest is burning every 20 years then the fire is relatively minor. There’s much less accumulated fuel so it won’t burn as hot or be as destructive as we see now.
On the other hand, talking to a friend in the Bay area rationality scene, it sounds like maybe even with the gender imbalance there are more women looking to settle down than men? In which case the gender imbalance is actually likely making marriage more common?
EA Relationship Status
I was curious what tone changes NPR made between the archived version you linked and the current version. I ran a quick diff:
hand-wringing about looting. → condemnation of looting
bemoaned the property damage → denounced the property damage
“” → Osterweil is a self-described writer, editor and agitator who has been writing about and participating in protests for years. And her book arrives as the continued protests have emerged as a bitter dividing point in the presidential race.
I spoke with Osterweil about this summer’s riots, the common narratives surrounding looting, and why “nonviolence” can be a misleading term. → I spoke with Osterweil
Now, as protests and riots continue to grip cities, she argues that looting is a powerful tool → Now, as protests and riots continue to grip cities, she stakes out a provocative position: that that looting is a powerful tool
The rioters who smash windows and take items from stores, she says, are engaging in a powerful tactic → The rioters who smash windows and take items from stores, she claims, are engaging in a powerful tactic* new Black and Brown nations → new Black and brown nations
the Civil Rights bill → the civil rights bill
You know, one of the causes of the L.A. riots was a Korean small-business owner murdering 15-year-old Latasha Harlins → You know, one of the causes of the L.A. riots was a Korean small-business owner [killing] 15-year-old Latasha Harlins
Excellent post; thanks for the link!
I like the first section as well, especially the “war is not the instrument he thought it was” perspective.
(I grew up Quaker, and while at this point I am not 100% pacifist I am generally extremely skeptical about the ability of violence to improve situations)
Escalation Outside the System
Ability to mount things on the wall
Nice to have, but not critical?
Bring additional utilities (water, sewer, networking) into the space?
Not planning on water/sewer. I should decide about ethernet and do it at this stage if I’m going to. Probably yes ethernet?
what’s the climate like where you’re building?
Northeast US. Primarily heating. Climate details: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/67yzoZE88Qd3EjQ8d Not planning for AC, though the window will be able to take a window unit if need be.
Shed Wall Plans
Estimating the ROI of Insulation
WebBundles and URL Randomization
The Best Toy In The Park
How to set up foot pedals
This is a great point: it looks like peak infectiousness is quite short-lived (~2d?), so even if someone does have a contacts model they should be counting person A this week and person A last week as separate contacts.
While we don’t have controlled studies, married people do tend to be happier. Overall, many married people find the companionship of having another person to spend their life with fulfilling, rewarding, comforting, and generally very positive.
There is a risk of an unhappy marriage, but there is also a risk of missing out on what could be a really important relationship.
You could consider talking to people a few decades older than you who seem like the kind of people you might be in a few decades time, and asking whether they’re married and how they feel about it?