[Question] TAI?

It looks like people around here are now using the acronym TAI with the accompanying definition “transformative AI is AI that precipitates a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution.”

Is there some kind of consensus that this hasn’t already happened?

Because my current belief is that if Moore’s laws stopped tomorrow and there was absolutely 0 innovation in AI beyond what GANs and Transformers give us, the social implications are already of that magnitude, they’re just not “evenly distributed”.

Here’s what I think a world where our current level of AI becomes evenly distributed looks like:

  • AI is built into every product imaginable and used for almost every task.

  • Most labor (including almost physical labor) has been replaced by robots. The jobs that remain consist of research and application of AI and robotics.

    • Note: jobs like entertainer, teacher, philosopher, historian, YouTube influencer, etc still exist but these are voluntary in the sense that they do not contribute to providing for the ongoing physical needs of humankind.

  • Universal Basic Income means the vast majority of people no longer need to work.

  • “Popular” entertainment is generated using AI and individualized to the taste of the viewer. That is to say human scripted TV, movies and video games still exist, but in the same way that plays exist in our current world.

  • Space travel becomes routine and humanity is a multi planetary species (I’m not really sure we need AI for this one, but I bet people on Mars will be using robots to clean their solar farms and watching AI generated content instead of waiting for the 30 minute delay to download media from Earth).

So for those who don’t think TAI exists, is the claim:

  1. The story you’ve told requires innovations that do not yet exist

  2. The story you’ve told doesn’t count as FAI

  3. Something else?

Specifically, “If Moore’s law stopped tomorrow and there are no more ‘breakthroughs’ in AI—I’m not counting what an expert in 2021 would consider an obvious or incremental improvement or application—what would a world where such technology was ‘evenly distributed’ look like, and how would it fall short of TAI?”

Edit: I thought I should add that I don’t think the industrial revolution is “evenly distributed” yet either. Let’s posit the industrial age as ending with the introduction of the personal computer in 1976. US GDP/​capita was then $27,441.89 (in 2012 dollars). World GDP/​capita for 2019 was only $11,442. And every country poorer than South Korea has not yet reached this level.