Karma: 1,111

I’m an independent researcher, hobbyist forecaster, programmer, and hardcore utilitarian.

In the past, I’ve studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exhasperation at the inefficiency; picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 and 2019, and SPARC during 2020; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and a a good fraction of my research is available on

With regards to forecasting, I am LokiOdinevich on GoodJudgementOpen, and Loki on CSET-Foretell, and I have been running a Forecasting Newsletter since April 2020. I also quite enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs.

I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and I’m working on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do “independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term.” You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2021.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2021 17:06 UTC
12 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2021

NunoSempere1 Sep 2021 17:01 UTC
19 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

US Mili­tary Global In­for­ma­tion Dom­i­nance Experiments

NunoSempere1 Sep 2021 13:34 UTC
21 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Metafore­cast up­date: Bet­ter search, cap­ture func­tion­al­ity, more plat­forms.

NunoSempere16 Aug 2021 18:31 UTC
34 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

All Metafore­cast COVID predictions

NunoSempere16 Aug 2021 18:30 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link