Karma: 691

I’m an independent researcher, hobbyist forecaster, programmer, and aspiring effective altruist.

In the past, I’ve studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exhasperation at the inefficiency; picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 and 2019, and SPARC during 2020; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and a a good fraction of my research is available on

With regards to forecasting, I am LokiOdinevich on GoodJudgementOpen, and Loki on CSET-Foretell, and I have been running a Forecasting Newsletter since April 2020. I also quite enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs.

I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and I’m working on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do “independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term.” You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

2020: Fore­cast­ing in Re­view.

NunoSempere10 Jan 2021 16:06 UTC
23 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2020

NunoSempere1 Jan 2021 16:07 UTC
12 points
0 comments10 min readLW link