Karma: 945

I’m an independent researcher, hobbyist forecaster, programmer, and aspiring effective altruist.

In the past, I’ve studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exhasperation at the inefficiency; picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 and 2019, and SPARC during 2020; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and a a good fraction of my research is available on

With regards to forecasting, I am LokiOdinevich on GoodJudgementOpen, and Loki on CSET-Foretell, and I have been running a Forecasting Newsletter since April 2020. I also quite enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs.

I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and I’m working on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do “independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term.” You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2021

NunoSempere1 Jul 2021 21:35 UTC
12 points
2 comments14 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2021

NunoSempere1 Jun 2021 15:51 UTC
9 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2021

NunoSempere1 May 2021 16:07 UTC
8 points
0 comments10 min readLW link