Karma: 900

I’m an independent researcher, hobbyist forecaster, programmer, and aspiring effective altruist.

In the past, I’ve studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exhasperation at the inefficiency; picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 and 2019, and SPARC during 2020; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and a a good fraction of my research is available on

With regards to forecasting, I am LokiOdinevich on GoodJudgementOpen, and Loki on CSET-Foretell, and I have been running a Forecasting Newsletter since April 2020. I also quite enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs.

I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and I’m working on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do “independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term.” You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2021

NunoSempere1 Apr 2021 17:12 UTC
22 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­ing Metafore­cast: A Fore­cast Ag­gre­ga­tor and Search Tool

7 Mar 2021 19:03 UTC
76 points
6 comments6 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2021

NunoSempere1 Mar 2021 21:51 UTC
12 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Prize Results

19 Feb 2021 19:07 UTC
32 points
0 comments6 min readLW link