people who haven’t interacted with Said
Well, this is someone who hasn’t interacted with Said in the sense of exchanging words. They have interacted with him in the sense that Said’s comments have marginally changed the trajectory of thir life. (So maybe we say they haven’t interacted with Said but Said has interacted with them? But that seems like the more important direction here.)
Like, some rando who never heard of LW or Said Achmiz chiming in to say “I would have found Said unpleasant if I’d been here” would feel a bit weird to me. Not off topic but also not very meaningful, and I’d be worried about selection effects. (Which I take to be the bad dynamics you’re thinking of. “We don’t get an unbiased sample of randos, so it’s hard to tell what randos-in-aggregate think.”)
But here… sure, there’s still some chance of selection effects, and it’s good to keep them in mind, which Duncan did.[1]
But there’s also selection effects that come from “people somewhat driven away by Said are less likely to be here than people nonewhat driven away by him”, and encouraging DrShiny to comment is a way of counteracting those.
So like, I think it’s good to notice the thing that you noticed, we should indeed be paying attention to such things, but ultimately I don’t think it was bad.
- ^
Granted, his attempt to fight against them presumably wasn’t 100% successful in expectation. Duncan’s discord members are probably somewhat selected in the direction of disliking Said, though I think less than a lot of people would guess.
Another thing that seems relevant: I claim the members are also somewhat selected for “people who would be a good fit for LW if they feel like being here”, and I haven’t spoken to DrShiny much but from what I have I believe they are such a person.
I think the claim I’d make is not necessarily that Oli’s Sense Motive check has succeeded, but that Oli’s Sense Motive check correlates much better with other people’s Sense Motive checks than yours does, and that ultimately that’s what ends up mattering for the effects on discourse.
Like, in the sense that someone’s motives approximately only affect LessWrong by affecting the words that they write. So when we know the words they write, knowing their motives doesn’t give us any more information about how they’re going to affect LessWrong. For some people, there’s something like… “okay, if this person actually felt disdain then the words they write in future are likely to be _, and if not they’re likely to be _ instead; and we can probably even shift the distribution if we ask them hey we detect disdain from your comment, is that intended?”. But we don’t really have that uncertainty with Said. We know how he’s going to write, whether he feels disdain or not.
I am somewhat interested in his True Motives, but I don’t think they should be relevant to LW moderation.
(This is not intended to say “Said’s comments are just fine except that people detect disdain”.)