avturchin

Strength­en­ing the Ar­gu­ment for In­trin­sic AI Safety: The S-Curves Per­spec­tive

The Sharp Right Turn: sud­den de­cep­tive al­ign­ment as a con­ver­gent goal

Another for­mal­iza­tion at­tempt: Cen­tral Ar­gu­ment That AGI Pre­sents a Global Catas­trophic Risk

Run­ning many AI var­i­ants to find cor­rect goal generalization

AI-kills-ev­ery­one sce­nar­ios re­quire robotic in­fras­truc­ture, but not nec­es­sar­ily nanotech

The AI Shut­down Prob­lem Solu­tion through Com­mit­ment to Archiv­ing and Pe­ri­odic Restoration

Long-term mem­ory for LLM via self-repli­cat­ing prompt

Log­i­cal Prob­a­bil­ity of Gold­bach’s Con­jec­ture: Prov­able Rule or Coin­ci­dence?

A Pin and a Bal­loon: An­thropic Frag­ility In­creases Chances of Ru­n­away Global Warm­ing

The table of differ­ent sam­pling as­sump­tions in anthropics

Another plau­si­ble sce­nario of AI risk: AI builds mil­i­tary in­fras­truc­ture while col­lab­o­rat­ing with hu­mans, defects later.

Un­typ­i­cal SIA

Rus­sian x-risks newslet­ter May 2022 + short his­tory of “method­ol­o­gists”

Grabby An­i­mals: Ob­ser­va­tion-se­lec­tion effects fa­vor the hy­poth­e­sis that UAP are an­i­mals which con­sist of the “field-mat­ter”:

The Fu­ture of Nu­clear War

The dooms­day ar­gu­ment is normal

Rus­sian x-risk newslet­ter March 2022 update

I left Rus­sia on March 8

Rus­sian x-risks newslet­ter win­ter 21-22, war risks up­date.

SIA be­comes SSA in the multiverse