links 3/2/26: https://roamresearch.com/#/app/srcpublic/page/03-02-2026
https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.07164 more effective way to elicit “in character” personalities from LLMs
https://blog.egan.bio/p/reviving-estrogen-replacement-therapy overview on why hormone therapy for menopause is losing its black-box label (tl;dr: it’s not a totally unreasonable choice)
https://www.owlposting.com/p/neurotechnology-for-cancer-ben-woodington Abhishaike Mahajan interview with the founders of Coherence Neuro, which uses neuromodulation to disrupt (mostly brain) tumors. neurotransmitters can be tumor growth factors!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-income_attribution#Modeling_the_yield_curve functions that define the yield curve for bonds
https://lydialaurenson.substack.com/p/social-contracts-moral-order-weaving Lydia Laurenson on “missing stair” type dynamics, how hard it is to enforce norms against bad actors in a community
https://www.hyperdimensional.co/p/clawed Dean Ball is sticking his neck out to do the right thing here
https://www.clinicaltrialsabundance.blog/p/ai-wont-automatically-accelerate sorry Dario Amodei, AI can’t make all clinical trials take under a year; sometimes you need follow-ups longer than that for the actual course of disease to become clear! this is crazypants and we need to keep in mind the actual places there’s room for improvement on trial times—reducing purely regulatory delays, or procedural time (like patient recruitment time) as opposed to medically-relevant follow-up time, and finding surrogate endpoints where good ones exist. (I kinda hate surrogate endpoints cause so many suck, but yeah, clearly, when you find a good one it will speed up trials substantially.) Ruxandra Tesloianu bringing the common sense and much-needed urgency, as usual.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/02/if-you-have-the-right-to-die-you-should-have-the-right-to-try.html right-to-try is the least-good and most popular form of medical deregulation, IMO, but it is still correct. Ruxandra Tesloianu again.
https://read.technically.dev/p/how-are-companies-using-ai survey of how companies are using AI
https://www.economicforces.xyz/p/we-dont-need-to-just-make-up-fantasy solid economics based takedown of the Citrini piece
https://www.gleech.org/enhance I think I buy this, by Gavin Leech; nobody will ever acknowledge that the transhumanists were right, they will simply adopt “better-than-well”/human-augmentation technologies piecemeal, as those technologies become practical, safe-enough, and accessible.
links 3/10/26: https://roamresearch.com/#/app/srcpublic/page/03-10-2026
https://manufacturing-operations.vercel.app/index.html Ben Reinhardt’s matrix of manufacturing operations, ranked by how valuable closed-loop self-improving automation would be
bottlenecks in defense production:
https://www.businessdefense.gov/ibr/mceip/dpai/dpat3/ DPA Article III is a department involved in procuring supplies from the private sector
https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-18-45.pdf solid rocket motors, used in missiles, are in shortage; carbon fiber motor casings are one of the bottlenecks
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan wargames of an invasion of Taiwan
https://www.insensitivemunitions.org/history/the-introduction-of-castable-plastic-bonded-explosives-pbxs-in-navy-munitions/ plastic bonded explosives are also a key bottleneck
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Tennessee_manufacturing_plant_explosion explosives manufacturing is quite dangerous
https://www.navalsteminterns.us/nreip/labs/nswc_indianhead.html missile warheads are made and tested at a single naval facility
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holston_Army_Ammunition_Plant this is the only place where the explosive material for missiles is made
https://www.heritage.org/tidalwave/chapters/chapter-6-assessing-the-us-indo-pacific-munitions-system we are short of missiles by about an order of magnitude, Heritage estimates
https://www.defensenews.com/space/2017/06/21/us-industrial-base-at-risk-for-key-rocket-motor-ingredient/ there is only one supplier of a key ingredient for rocket oxidizer, ammonium perchlorate
https://nuclearcompanion.com/data/mark-48-torpedo/ parts of a torpedo
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/lrasm.htm the LRASM, a key missile
https://news.usni.org/2026/01/24/2026-u-s-national-defense-strategy the US’s official current strategy in the Pacific: “denial defense along the Pacific Island Chain”, i.e. preventing an invasion of Taiwan by being ready to sink any Chinese fleet attempting to attack
https://dynomight.net/pattern/ Dynomight, food for thought
https://catboost.ai/docs/en/ library for gradient boosting
https://paulgraham.com/brandage.html Paul Graham on watches as an extended metaphor for what happens when technical competence is commoditized. he never mentions AI but it’s interesting to consider what the analogies would be.
https://thezvi.substack.com/p/anthropic-officially-arbitrarily Zvi Mowshowitz, like all reasonable people, decries what’s going on here
https://timhwang.github.io/because-china/ China is an excellent excuse for whatever you wanted to do anyway
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distillation#History the Babylonians had distillation, but for perfume, not booze
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_gunpowder it is entirely a myth that the Chinese used gunpowder only for fireworks and were unaware of its military applications. they used gunpowder weapons for centuries before Europeans did.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_variates method used in Monte Carlo estimation