Philosophy PhD student, worked at AI Impacts, then Center on Long-Term Risk, then OpenAI. Quit OpenAI due to losing confidence that it would behave responsibly around the time of AGI. Not sure what I’ll do next yet. Views are my own & do not represent those of my current or former employer(s). I subscribe to Crocker’s Rules and am especially interested to hear unsolicited constructive criticism. http://sl4.org/crocker.html
Some of my favorite memes:
(by Rob Wiblin)
My EA Journey, depicted on the whiteboard at CLR:
(h/t Scott Alexander)
I agree that 0.7% is the number to beat for people who mostly focus on helping present humans and who don’t take acausal or simulation argument stuff or cryonics seriously. I think that even if I was much more optimistic about AI alignment, I’d still think that number would be fairly plausibly beaten by a 1-year pause that begins right around the time of AGI.
What are the mechanisms people have given and why are you skeptical of them?