Coding day in and out on LessWrong 2.0. You can reach me at habryka@lesswrong.com
habryka(Oliver Habryka)
Karma: 14,125
Huh, that’s really interesting. Do you have any sources around this? That sure could introduce some big shifts in the EV.
See also this question, which asks the same question and comes with a $1000 bounty for the best answers: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fBGzge5i4hfbaQZWy/usd1000-bounty-how-effective-are-marginal-vaccine-doses
Oops, indeed. Fixed.
Huh, interesting, I haven’t heard of this. Do you have a source handy?
I usually associate things like “being evil” more with something like “part of my payoff matrix has a negative coefficient on your payoff matrix”. I.e. actively wanting to hurt people and taking inherent interest in making them worse off. Selfishness feels pretty different from being evil emotionally, at least to me.
Parallel HN thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27848186
Oh, well, I definitely didn’t get that reference. But that definitely makes me more sympathetic to the title.
Would the title of this just be better as “What would it look like if AGI was near?”. I feel a bit confused what the additional “if it looked like” clause is doing.
I also found these very valuable! I wonder whether a better title might help more people see how great these are, but not sure.
Mod note: For critiques like this, please give more context or background. Disagreement and critiques are really useful, but they are very hard to engage with when they give this little context. In my experience, comments like this can cause quite a bit of stress for both readers and authors, and I would really like to avoid that on LessWrong, so try to outline at least a basic argument for why you believe something when you disagree, or alternatively add a meta-comment of the form “I don’t have time to write up my reasons for believing this, but I am overall pretty confident that this would reduce tax revenue. Sorry that I don’t have time to write up the arguments for this, but I think that’s a major obstacle to this being a good idea, and it seemed good to voice my take even if I can’t give more context”, or something like that.
Oh, yeah. I tried to scroll, but on a desktop clicking and dragging wasn’t something I considered.
I was unable to read all the quotes. At least one of them was cut off on the right side:
I also couldn’t find any way to scroll to make the quote visible.
Replaced the image in the post with this image.
This FB post by Matt Bell on the Delta Variant helped me orient a good amount:
https://www.facebook.com/thismattbell/posts/10161279341706038
As has been the case for almost the entire pandemic, we can predict the future by looking at the present. Let’s tackle the question of “Should I worry about the Delta variant?” There’s now enough data out of Israel and the UK to get a good picture of this, as nearly all cases in Israel and the UK for the last few weeks have been the Delta variant. [1] Israel was until recently the most-vaccinated major country in the world, and is a good analog to the US because they’ve almost entirely used mRNA vaccines.
- If you’re fully vaccinated and aren’t in a high risk group, the Delta variant looks like it might be “just the flu”. There are some scary headlines going around, like “Half of new cases in Israel are among vaccinated people”, but they’re misleading for a couple of reasons. First, since Israel has vaccinated over 80% of the eligible population, the mRNA vaccine still is 1-((0.5/0.8)/(0.5/0.2)) = 75% effective against infection with the Delta variant. Furthermore, the efficacy of the mRNA vaccine is still very high ( > 90%) against hospitalization or death from the Delta variant. Thus, you might still catch Delta if you’re vaccinated, but it will be more like a regular flu if you do. J&J likely has a similar performance in terms of reduced hospitalizations and deaths, as the UK primarily vaccinated its citizens with the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is basically a crappier version of J&J, and is still seeing a 90+% reduction in hospitalizations and deaths among the vaccinated population. [2]
[...]
Do you have a new probability?
Ah, that section is a random sample of posts that you haven’t read, weighted slightly exponentially by their karma. So any frontpage post can show up in that section.
I’m not sure why this is pinned.
Not sure what you mean by this?
Seems great to me. I will revisit it in a month or so and see whether it has reached critical mass.
Done