If you literally maximize expected number of paperclips, using standard decision theory, you will always pay the casino. To refuse the one shot game, you need to have a nonlinear utility function, or be doing something weird like median outcome maximization.

Choose action A to maximixe m such that P(paperclip count>m|a)=1/2

A well defined rule, that will behave like maximization in a sufficiently vast multiverse.

My claim at the start had a typo in it. I am claiming that you can’t make a human seriously superhuman with a good education. Much like you can’t get a chimp up to human level with lots of education and “self improvement”. Serious genetic modification is another story, but at that point, your building an AI out of protien.

It does depend where you draw the line, but the for a wide range of performance levels, we went from no algorithm at that level, to a fast algorithm at that level. You couldn’t get much better results just by throwing more compute at it.