Wow as Vakus Drake said, looks like chimps have more working memory than us, at least in one sense that feels important: https://twitter.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1213860120058220546
Liron
Karma: 3,609
This content is a real gem. It’s easy and fun to read, yet offers a high density of CFAR’s unique insights which are worth knowing to improve your life. It also manages to speak to all rationality skill levels and knowledge.
I would love to see this content featured on CFAR’s site, which is currently kind of a black box in terms of what specific “rationality” they teach. There’s this FAQ answer that lists the topics of the workshop, but I suspect it’s better to let prospective workshop attendees dive in more ahead of time if they’re curious.
I was so inspired by how this handbook makes CFAR look good that we’re now working on the same thing at my startup Relationship Hero, a public-facing handbook that will make our coaching less of a black box. Update: It’s live here.
Alright I shall update to a belief that maybe there’s some different dynamic that makes remote work less advantageous when an organization size is in the 10,000+ range.
What are all these “costs” that outweigh the benefits? I suspect they are easy enough to circumvent. My observation is that all the same tools being invented that make non-remote companies more productive (e.g. Slack) are usable remotely.
I’d still bet 1:1 odds that 2+ of the top 10 US companies by market cap in 5 years will allow more than 50% of their employed software engineers to work from anywhere.
You think I would use the language of belief probabilities as a figure of speech???
I’m up for $100 vs $100. Just send me a message at https://m.me/sendmessage to confirm with your real identity.
I don’t have any hard data but I’d bet that the ratio of “work locations per market cap dollar” has been steadily increasing in the economy over the last few years. (A measure of how distributed each company’s workforce is, and weighting higher-market-cap companies higher.)
I also bet more than 50% chance that within 3 years at least one of {Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon} will give more than 50% of their software engineers the ability to work from home for at least 80% of their workdays.
The fact that Stripe ($30B+ valuation) is now actively hiring many remote employees is a significant recent anecdote I can offer. Do you have any significant anecdotes indicating a remote work decrease?
But every sufficiently large organization is already distributed across lots of offices and timezones. Why should we expect the distinction between “on-site” and “off-site” work to be relevant to productivity if on-site work is already remotely distributed?
The inside view is: even if you’re in the same office with all the people who matter to your job, most of your job is done by you interfacing with your computer. Even when I did the whole “live with your startup cofounder in a 2BR apartment” thing, we worked in separate rooms and interacted via text. So what specific interactions happen in meatspace that are durably necessary for increased productivity in our increasingly virtual world, and can’t be compensated for by any creative remote-work best practices?
It seems obvious to me that the answer is nothing.
I’m confident that the larger trend is the opposite of the examples you’ve witnessed. Sure, big companies who wake up to the importance of having engineering resources might first get the idea to hire them in-house, but remote work is clearly a huge trend throughout the economy. One way to understand this is that even “in-house” often means that a company’s own employees are working across national/international offices or working from home.
I think competition explains a lot of it. Using USPS instead of UPS or Fedex is a free-market choice, but I don’t have much choice where to get electricity for my home or where to get a driver’s license after moving to a new state.
From my other comment:
What kind of workers are producing more value? What are the characteristics of a job that enables more value creation? One where there’s more leverage, i.e. an hour of work produces more economic value, without a corresponding increase in supply.
Another example of a sector that’s seeing much higher economic leverage is white-collar work serving high-cost-of-living countries/cities from within lower-cost-of-living countries/cities. E.g. English-speaking workers from our neighbor Mexico where real income per capita is only 28% of the US’s, can now create more value on their time by working from home and copy editing articles, or doing phone customer service, or graphic design, and even management-level work like marketing strategy and project management.
Unfortunately remote workers’ leverage increase here is partly zero-sum because it decreases the economic leverage that local workers get from their location. But it’s actually positive sum because poorer people tend to benefit from a wealth transfer more than richer people lose. It’s also positive sum because some jobs are only worth paying below the local living wage. E.g. a San Francisco company might be able to afford paying $12/hr for a customer service representative, which is far below cost of living in the SF Bay Area, but not bad in Mississippi.
Remote work has also created higher leverage on the value of everyone’s haven’t-gotten-dressed time or currently-babysitting time, regardless of their previous baseline.
Also note that one type of remote white-collar work is programming. Companies hiring their in-house software engineers offshore to work remotely, or contracting with offshore software consultancies, is also an increasingly common practice which is helping other economies and raising US GDP while reducing US programmer salaries, but the US salary effect is small because the whole world’s programmer supply is still not keeping pace with global demand growth.
Ah right yes, ok so not a huge increase. Meanwhile, I’ve seen real value of entry-level programmer compensation packages at least double since 2000, probably more like triple.
I think my point about GDP growth helping the outside view is this: *some* significant chunks of sectors in the economy are getting significantly more productive. What kind of workers are producing more value? What are the characteristics of a job that enables more value creation? One where there’s more leverage, i.e. an hour of work produces more economic value, without a corresponding increase in supply. And any sector where the leverage on time is increasing say 5x+ per decade is a good bet for an area where supply is trailing demand.
We don’t understand why programmers are paid so well
It might be pretty straightforward.
GDP is 2x higher than in 2000Real GDP per capita is up 25% since 2000, so some category of workers must have gottenat least 2xmore productive in that timeframe, so their real income should be2xhigher. That seems like a plausible story for the software engineering career.This simplified model is consistent with my inside view. I can help sufficiently big companies save $millions/yr, or earn $millions/yr more, by writing software that streamlines some detail of their internal processes or external interactions. And my ability to do this is obviously much higher thanks to all the tools that exist today that didn’t exist in 2000: cloud computing, tons of third-party APIs, ubiquitous mobile phones with fast chips and internet connections, huge high-resolution monitors, Stack Overflow, etc.
The tech entrepreneur and investor Naval Ravikant talks a lot about how “leveraging yourself up” is the key to getting rich. E.g. these days Joe Rogan makes $1M for recording a 90-min podcast because he built a following. He has distribution as leverage.
Programming in the internet age is an unprecedentedly huge source of economic leverage on human capital. A doctor or lawyer sells an hour of their time with a limited impact multiplier—they benefit one patient or one party in one case. In contrast, it keeps getting more common throughout the economy for an hour of a programmer’s time to give value to thousands or millions of customers. Plus, the programmers are constantly getting better tools to get 10x more functionality built in that hour of time than was possible a few years ago. For example, building a basic form to accept a credit card payment has gone from taking days to minutes thanks to Stripe, a company that launched in 2010 and is now worth $30B. But they didn’t just make themselves rich, they added to the leverage that the rest of us have. It’s a real leveragefest.
It seems like software will continue to “eat the world” and add tons of economic value for a while. At the very least I’d confidently bet on another decade where supply increases much more slowly than demand, and the gap between career appeal of doctors/lawyers and software engineers will widen further in that time.
The Power to Draw Better
Yep I’m sympathetic to your post. As for the counterargument, I have two rebuttals:
1. I would agree if we were talking about e.g. money-limited people donating small token amounts to effective charities to build their identities, but “one who limits personal carbon footprint outside of a strategy to stop global warming” isn’t even an identity people should want :)
2. Even if we give up on talking about strong causal mechanisms and just talk about weak effects of one’s carbon-footprint-reduction efforts like “raising awareness of the issue”, there’s also the self-licensing effect where people are satisfied to think of themselves as a good person after just taking one or two actions, so actions that don’t help can drive out actions that would have helped.
Awesome, I think the Western world currently has a shortage of specific ambitious proposals like this. Strong upvote.
In Zero to One, Peter Thiel calls this “definite future” mindset and specifically mentions the Reber Plan as an example.
I think many of the people who were commenting in your threads would have been up to let you interview them in a video chat if you’d DM’d them at the time. I don’t think it should take more than 10 DMs to get a video interview with this kind of approach.
Can you link to specific posts you’ve made in relevant communities for poker and/or startups asking for feedback or discussion about your ideas? If they get 1k+ views then I’d expect at least one or two leads to come out of such a post.
Well it’s not surprising that someone on a forum who said they love your app weeks or months ago is probably not super likely to respond to a DM now. There’s just a general level of flakiness that suits all of us to partake in to some degree.
How about DMing 10 users who have commented in the poker reddit in the last 48 hours and asking if they’d do you a favor and answer questions about their poker interest on a video call? I bet you’d get a couple takers. Until I understand why your specific situation is best helped by an email list of early adopters, I’m skeptical that your value prop generalizes the way you think it does.
With the poker app, I found that the poker subreddit, other poker forums, in person networking, and cold emails didn’t amount to enough leads.
[...] I think the success of this platform idea we’re talking about depends a good amount on the answer to that question, because if founders are currently doing fine with customer outreach, then it wouldn’t really be solving a problem for them.
No question that acquiring leads/customers is a huge problem for a huge number of businesses. Google and Facebook are worth a combined $trillion because they sell a solution to that problem.
I just don’t think an “email list of early adopters” would have helped you acquire leads more than you can already help yourself by using existing forums that aggregate poker-lovers plus existing forums that aggregate people who are open to testing startups.
You probably think whoever currently follows Product Hunt is a good candidate to be on your email list, if only Product Hunt had a section for pre-launch companies. Well, it’s not hard to look up 100 PH users’ emails and blast them an email to take a look at your poker bot :) you can target PH people who have liked poker-related products. This would constitute an MVP of testing your idea, even though on the surface you might not imagine it as such.
But my impression is that a) many founders struggle to get in touch with these sorts of early adopters, and b) even if they are successfully getting in touch with some, they’d still want more. Of course, this is a hypothesis that could be validated without actually building anything, eg. by talking to founders.
Before talking to other founders, a good first step is to convince yourself you would be a passionate user of this, which I’m skeptical about. E.g. would you pay $50/month for access? (This $50 threshold is a generally-applicable stronger version of the Value Prop Story test.)
Good point about everyone needing to have backup plans for power outages.
Another observation is: It’s crazy that few people were aware that an outage would be happening with elevated probability until the day of. It probably would have avoided $1B in marginal lost productivity to have proper communication.
Hmmm interesting, thanks for posting this! Overall the fact that humans are so much smarter than chimps but still have the same-size tiny-on-any-absolute-scale symbolic working memory seems to support my original claim that this is a tragically sucky situation.