2022 ACX predictions: market prices

As part of the 2022 ACX prediction contest, which I am co-running with Eric Neyman, I wanted to get market prices for all of the predictions.[1] These market prices will be included with the contest data, which should be released soon.

This ended up being harder than I expected, and I can’t guarantee this data is error-free. So in the interest of transparency, I’m making this post to explain where all the numbers came from.

Before I get into it, some notes:

  • These are supposed to be market prices as of February 14, 2022, which was the last day for contest submissions.

    • In some cases (like when backing a probability out of a Metaculus probability distribution) I didn’t know how to get historical data. If it didn’t look to me like the market had moved much since 214, I instead used the predictions as of today, March 5.

  • When aggregating predictions from different markets, I’m weighting them according to how many stars they get from Metaforecast, when available. When not available, I’m using my judgement.

    • Many of the Manifold markets were very lightly traded, some having only 1 or 2 bets. I tried to note this below when I noticed it.

  • There was some personal judgement involved in e.g. deciding whether a market asked close enough to the right thing to be relevant, adding or subtracting a few percentage points to PredictIt markets which don’t sum to 100%, etc. If it seems like I misjudged anything here, it’s possibly because I did.

  • I also expect that there’s at least one outright error from something silly like copying the wrong number.

  • So: if you see anything wrong please let me know! Also please let me know if there’s a relevant market which I missed or if you see a way to back predictions out of financial markets which I didn’t think of (I’ve noted such cases below).

Anyway, here we go:

Scott predictions

  1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than fifty percent: 14
    (12 from Manifold; also this market from Kalshi saying 20% for having approval >45% on election day in November)

  2. At least $250 million in damage from a single round of mass protests in US: 36 (Manifold)

  3. PredictIt thinks Joe Biden is most likely 2024 Dem nominee: 73 (Manifold)

  4. PredictIt thinks Donald Trump is most likely 2024 GOP nominee: 60 (Manifold)

  5. Major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/​Ukraine conflict: 76 (88 from Manifold; 60% chance of invasion from Metaculus)

  6. Major flare-up (worse than past 10 years) in Israel/​Palestine conflict: 15 (Manifold)

  7. Major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/​Taiwan conflict: 15 (20 from Manifold; 10% chance of military conflict from Metaculus)

  8. Honduran ZEDEs legally crippled to the point where no reasonable person would invest in them further: None (no one had yet made a bet in the Manifold market)

  9. New ZEDE approved in Honduras: None (no one has made a bet in the Manifold market even now)

  10. Gamestop stock price still above $100: 50 (GME options; Manifold said 24%, but there were 2 bets so I’m ignoring it)

  11. Bitcoin above 100K: 8 (5 from BTC options; 11 from Metaculus; 33 from Manifold)

  12. Ethereum above 5K: 20 (17 from ETH options; 83(!) from Manifold)

  13. Ethereum above 0.05 BTC: 36 (from 2 Manifold bets; I don’t know of a way to back this out of options prices but would love to hear suggestions)

  14. Dow above 35K: 54 (Dow options; ignoring the one (1) Manifold bet)

  15. Dow above 37.5K: 30 (Dow options; ignoring the 3 Manifold bets)

  16. Inflation for the year below five percent: 45 (Manifold; the financial markets probably have an opinion about this but I don’t know how to find it—would appreciate any help!)

  17. Unemployment below five percent in December: 73 (Kalshi said 92% that unemployment never goes above 6%; 49 from Manifold)

  18. Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked: 14 (Manifold)

  19. Starship reaches orbit: 94 (71 from Manifold; 97 from Metaculus)

  20. Fewer than 10K daily average official COVID cases in US in December 2022: None (Manifold had no bettors)

  21. Fewer than 50K daily average COVID cases worldwide in December 2022: 2 (congrats to the one person who bet on this on Manifold)

  22. >66% US population fully vaccinated (by current standards) against COVID: 80 (Manifold)

  23. India’s official case count is higher than US: None (no bettors on Manifold)

  24. Medical establishment reverses course and officially says any of Vitamin D, HCQ, or ivermectin is actually effective against COVID: 9 (Manifold)

  25. FDA approves a COVID indication for fluvoxamine: None (still no bets on Manifold)

  26. Some new variant not currently known is greater than 25% of cases: 79 (Manifold)

  27. Most people Scott sees in his local grocery store on December 31st are wearing masks: 38 (Manifold)

  28. Masks still required on US domestic flights: 51 (47 from Manifold; 53 from Metaculus)

  29. CDC recommends that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax: 61 (Manifold)

  30. China has fewer than 100,000 COVID cases this year (official estimate): None (sad Manifold)

  31. No new real-money prediction market becomes bigger than Polymarket: 61 (Manifold)

  32. Manifold Markets is still alive and active: 91(a very optimistic Manifold)

  33. New legal US real-money prediction market at least half as big as Kalshi: 12 (Manifold)

  34. New illegal but easy-to-use market satisfying the above: 42 (Manifold)

Future Perfect predictions

  1. Inflation for the year under three percent: 29 (33 from Metaculus (technically for Dec 2021 to Dec 2022); 25 from Manifold)

  2. Democrats will lose their majorities in the House and Senate: 73 (73 from PredictIt; 72 from Smarkets; 65 from Metaculus; 84 from Manifold)

  3. Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade: 46 (62 from Metaculus; 26 from Manifold)

  4. Emmanuel Macron will be reelected president of France: 77 (75 from Polymarket; 79 from PredictIt; 74 from Metaculus; 79 from Smarkets; 81 from Manifold)

  5. Jair Bolsonaro will be reelected president of Brazil: 28 (25 from Polymarket; 26 from PredictIt; 34 from Metaculus; 25 from Smarkets; 33 from Manifold)

  6. Bongbong Marcos will be elected president of the Philippines: 76 (80 from PredictIt; 75 from Metaculus; 63 from Manifold)

  7. China will NOT reopen its borders at any point during the first half of 2022: 98 (Metaculus (market is technically about whether US travelers will need to quarantine); still no bets on Manifold)

  8. Chinese GDP will continue to grow for the first 34 of the year: 95 (Manifold)

  9. 20% of US kids between 0.5 and 5 years old will get at least one COVID vaccine by year’s end: 56 (50 from Metaculus; 68 from two bets on Manifold)

  10. WHO will designate another Variant Of Concern: 76 (76 from Metaculus; 77 from Manifold)

  11. 12 billion COVID shots will be given out globally by November 1st: 92 (Metaculus; ignoring one bet from Manifold)

  12. At least one country will have less than 10% of people vaccinated with two shots by November 1st: 81(Manifold; Metaculus has a market that only counts countries that are releasing data, so e.g. not North Korea; FP and Scott might resolve this one differently)

  13. A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized/​legalized in at least one more US state: 57 (59 from Metaculus; 55 from Manifold)

  14. AI will discover a new drug promising enough for clinical trials: 71 (Manifold)

  15. US government will NOT renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research: 73 (74 from Metaculus; 71 from Manifold)

  16. The Biden administration will set the social cost of carbon at $100/​ton or more: 35 (31 from Metaculus; 49 from two bets on Manifold)

  17. 2022 will be warmer than 2021: 70 (62 from Metaculus; 80 from Manifold)

  18. Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast will win Best Picture: 36 (35 from Metaculus; 37 from Manifold)

Matt Yglesias predictions

  1. Democrats lose at least two Senate seats: 53 (63 from PredictIt; 48 from Metaculus; 45 eyeballed from Smarkets (their binning wasn’t compatible with this question))

  2. Democrats lose fewer than six Senate seats: 92 (PredictIt and Metaculus)

  3. Nancy Pelosi announces retirement plans: 42 (Manifold; but maybe there’s a way to back this out of other markets?)

  4. Joe Biden is still president: 91 (Manifold)

  5. At least one Biden cabinet-rank official resigns: None (couldn’t find any markets)

  6. No military conflict between the PRC and Taiwan: 89 (90 from Metaculus; 86 from Manifold)

  7. Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations: None (couldn’t find any markets)

  8. Fewer US Covid deaths in 2022 than in 2021: 96 (Metaculus)

  9. Emmanuel Macron re-elected: 77 (same as above; this appeared twice in the contest, oops)

  10. Liz Cheney loses primary: 77 (78 from PredictIt; 74 from Manifold)

  11. Some version of USICA passes Congress: 80 (Kalshi)

  12. Lula elected president of Brazil: 70 (67 from Polymarket; 72 from PredictIt)

  13. China officially abandons Covid Zero: 74 (Manifold)

  14. Additional booster shots of mRNA vaccines authorized for seniors: None (couldn’t find any markets)

  15. The Fed ends up doing more than its currently forecast three interest rate hikes: 84 (SOFR futures; see this comment by SimonM)

  16. Viktor Orbán loses power in Hungary: 26 (17 from PredictIt; 20 from Smarkets; 45 from Metaculus on whether he loses the election; why the big difference here—is there concern that he would win the election and lose power anyway?)

  17. Sinn Fein becomes the largest party in the Northern Ireland assembly: 80 (Smarkets)

  18. Democrats lose at least one governor on net: 76 (Manifold)

  1. ^

    See also the excellent work of SimonM, who did this exercise for Scott’s 2021 predictions.