Doesn’t this depend on what we value?
In particular, you appear to assume that we care about events outside of our lightcone in roughly the way we care about events in our near future. I’m guessing a good deal of skepticism of ECL is a result of people not caring much about distant events.
The part about “securities with huge variance” is somewhat widely used. See how much EA charities get from crypto and tech startup stock donations.
It’s unclear whether the perfectly anti-correlated pair improves this kind of strategy. I guess you’re trying to make the strategy more appealing to risk-averse investors? That sounds like it maybe should work, but is hard because risk-averse investors don’t want to be early adopters of a new strategy?