That was extremely interesting and relevant, thanks!
Alex is correct about water. People can go weeks without food but only days without water, so if there’s a crisis water is the most important.
I’m not a general prepper, but if an earthquake breaks a bunch of water pipes or something it might take a few days to fix things.
Can you give an example of this happening in the real world? I don’t quite see what it applies to.
Decisions about covid policy have been mostly political, but vaccines weren’t political before that. Consider smallpox. Smallpox was all over the world and apparently unbeatable. It was described in China in 340. George Washington and Abraham Lincoln got it, and if they died history could have gone way differently. https://rootsofprogress.org/smallpox-and-vaccines. It was just a thing that sometimes happened to people, and nothing could be done about it. Suddenly, as soon as vaccines were applied to a region. Smallpox was completely eliminated there.
A similar thing happened with Polio, Tetanus, Hepatitis A and B, Rubella, Measles, Hib, Whooping Cough, Pneumococcal Disease, Mumps, Diptheria… They are almost gone, and the only people who get them now are in places that haven’t gotten consistent and almost complete vaccination.
In fact, there’s one that most people alive remember. Chicken pox used to be seen as an inevitable childhood disease, to the point that people used to throw “pox parties” to get it over with. but when the vaccine was invented in 1995 it rapidly decreased, and I don’t know anyone my age who has gotten it (born in 1996). It’s pretty much gone now.
Zvi isn’t trying to have “fairness in a political fight”, as if the sides were equal. The “vaccines are effective” side is totally crushing the “vaccines are bad” side. And plague doesn’t care about your politics.
I wrote about this from a retrospective perspective already. “If computer power is the only thing standing between us and the singularity then we will finally have enough computer power… a decade ago.” Humans have a slight advantage in compute architecture now, but I doubt that’s enough to overcome computers’ other advantages.
How would students police that, exactly? Could you elaborate?
Also, coordination was tried, like when I made a deal with a friend named Griffin to do a homework exchange, but parents shut that down because that’s considered plagiarism and “cheating is wrong”.
I’m in the US, not UK (sorry for not clarifying). Maybe homework is functional there, and if so, great, but that isn’t what happens here. Also, I wish homework was a bit of retrieval practice on past content, but it’s not
Not quite, since although it never went that far, there was a legitimate concern that I could get killed. Also, l needed to show a specific example of a bully taking the extra effort to do extra harm, and giving a real example would be, well, problematic.
Good point, I didn’t consider statistical bundling.
Actually, I don’t think statistical bundling is a commonly recognized term, but I see the use of it now.
I don’t think there is a term, and don’t think there needs to be one. If someone else disagrees with me that’s fine, but situations where
1: you can consistently do far better than average by doing system B in a certain way
2: most people who use system B do worse
are so rare that it doesn’t need a term. Unless you can think of several specific examples?
You missed my main reason for avoiding spoilers. It’s not because something is intended a certain way or that I think it would train rationality better to not do something, it’s because doing things myself is way more fun than having things done for me. I found trying to figure out how to solve a rubix cube myself to be way more fun than being told would have been. (Or figuring out the villain’s plot before the monologue, or whatever).
I suggest reading the “Fun theory” sequence.
What if it’s just regression to the mean? Maybe the main problem wasn’t that late Rome was unusally bad, but that Rome at it’s peak was anomalously successful, and this didn’t last because technology and culture just wasn’t able to sustain an anomaly at the time?