Well, how else would we figure out if it actually works. We are not the experts.
Anyway. I take it. I have seen that it got banned by CDC and that would let me update a bit. But I want to move forward and the main motivator of having a bet is that I will follow it until next year :-)
Update: I expect to get in touch by DM here when results are due.
When our firstborn was in kindergarten and had trouble with his peers, I was very worried about how he would fare in school. I was considering setting up a homeschooling school. Not real homeschooling because Germany has mandatory schooling but using a legal construct that uses a private school as ‘adapter’ between multiple co-home-schooling parents. I had already researched the requirements and written (parts of) the application. But it turned out that our son had no problems in school—quite the opposite. Part of the reason probably was that he had an extremely experienced and caring teacher who also allowed me to offer some activities in the class (I was the “fried of numbers” in the class).
Anyway, your idea of a teaching community sounds quite like what I had in mind with my homeschooling school (though regulations would have set significant parts of the curriculum). I understand that you want to teach the ‘valuable’ parts of the curriculum like active reading and writing skills, math, and the scientific method plus some more useful stuff that is left unspecified.
Over time, I have discussed multiple times how education can be improved. We have taught our kids many things that are not part of the school curriculum, and I have made clear which aspects I judge to provide little long term value. Talking about the process with my kids (my oldest is now in 10th grade) has also informed my views. He has his own opinions on it. Now, with COVID19, he had the opportunity to study more self-directed and enjoyed it (and invested much more effort in some school projects than before).
My conclusion is that there is no simple answer. Do we understand why school is the way it is? Is it some Chesterton’s Fence? I think so. Especially after a lengthy discussion, I have concluded that school reproduces more than knowledge. It reproduces culture. It does so partly by creating a shared experience, a shared vocabulary, and shared methods of working together. And shared social networks. Sure, a big part is signaling. But the structure that the signaling supports—fitness for work in the corporate world—is highly interconnected with everything else. Can we get rid of it without breaking a lot of things? Maybe. It is worth a try for sure. Let’s experiment and learn.
The other aspect is that you and I might have good ideas about which curriculum would be best. But that is informed by our predisposition—which our kids may or may not share. The world is evolving fast. We may be well-adapted to the current state (hopefully, after not too painful learning experience). But that doesn’t mean that passing our tools on to our kids makes them well-equipped for the future also. The jobs we have now didn’t exist when we were kids (at least mine didn’t). Many of today’s well-paying professions didn’t exist before the age of the internet. At least not in the form we see them now. As usual, the future arrives with leaving things superficially unchanged—but things did change. And they will do so in the future too. Maybe even faster.
I talk a lot with my older son about how I do not know which future job will be best for him. I can only provide ideas and support, and he has to figure out most of it. I’m not worried. He is so rational and seems to take up many of my suggestions quickly. I am more concerned about his younger brother, who watches YouTube videos without end. But who am I to judge? When I was his age, I was reading copious amounts of science fiction. Many would have judged this a waste of time. And I played around with these computer things (that was in the 80s). Who knows? Maybe his fluency in these memes and the English he is picking up from it will be useful for him. I think his older brother will benefit from the rationality skills too. But I can’t force the tools. I will keep talking with them. Talking helps.
I feel like a big trick to parenting so far has been trying to find the angle from which these look the same, or at least harmonious.
This!
@Zvi The deeper look by Glen below lets me update back to ~40% that HCQ as prophylactic i.e. taken before the infection works. I’m now willing to take my $10 vs. your $30. We would commit here and transfer by PayPal after Scott has resolved. OK?
Thank you for looking deeper into this. A likely 1⁄3 reduction when taking it on day 1 is amazing. And if people at risk take it routinely (“day zero”) it might be even better. I guess I have to update back to 40% likely it works.
Tip: Take notes of what new things she does every week—or even every day. It is so cool to see one brain module after another come online.
That said, your daughter falling and hurting herself may be a positive in the long run.
I am also of the opinion that we should let our kids take some real risks (at least those without long-term health consequences). And risk here meaning that some of these risks do lead to getting hurt. getting bruises or even broken arms or teeth. This way the kids can calibrate how dangerous (or not dangerous) the world really is. This way, when they grow up, they will a) have more options to choose from and b) avoid options dangerous options they didn’t know were dangerous.
My go-to-example is a toddler who jumped out of his high-stool head-first because he genuinely didn’t know that was a bad idea. My boys knew that certain heights are bad ideas because from early on when they were crawling toward the edge of our bed we would let them ‘fall’ down, i.e. let them slide down head-first and just make sure they would land just gently enough (by holding their leg) that they would learn “this is uncomfortable and probably not a good idea this way”.
One thing that I have not yet figured out is how to teach delegation. Being very independent myself, I took very long to realize that I achieve more by delegating or working together on topics. Many friends esp. in manager roles love to delegate tasks while I enjoy figuring things out myself. I really have no solution. Maybe it is also a question of interests and talents—but then how do you know you kid has the talent to delegate and organize?
On the topic of parenting books there is also Kazdin’s Everyday Parenting Toolkit (one of the few evidence-based books on parenting).
Note that if your goal is only that it can lead to a lack of trust that comes from unconditional support. I think kids should receive quite a lot of unconditional support and love. As always the trick is to find the right balance.
The general approach of teaching vs helping goes is the same directions as “say yes, but” in this post I wrote some time ago, more examples (esp. for older kids) can be found there:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DEsgKpLJ9LvTRuDh7/soft-paternalism-in-parenting
My father-in-law said: “I’m not here to make you happy but to prepare you for life.”
I love your deep analysis of meditation and the mind (not just impermanence here). Thank you. I especially liked this one and added it to my Anki deck. To remind me of the concept it conveys I added this short summary (which totally doesn’t do it justice but served as a memory aid):
Sensory perceptions (external as well as internal) do not convey off themselves permanent information about the (internal or external) world. Those can only be inferred (often mistakenly) by memory and learning.
And Re Scott Adams: I know that he is pushing things. He is actually relatively transparent about that part esp. in his Periscopes. He is basically demoing most of his techniques for his audience (and his audience does a lot of the explaining in the replies). I don’t like him as he can be very offending/transgressing but it still possible to learn quite a bit about politics and psychology from him and he is always ahead of the curve.
Update: An RCT on HCQ as prophylactic is just out (with some evidence on Zinc too) and it is negative:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638
See also the supplementary material which has the details on Zinc:
So this covers use of HCQ plus Zinc as treatment and the people show the same symptoms (feaver, chills, headache,...; not only positive tests) than the controls.
This really leaves little room for any noticable benefits. I am updating toward lower than 10% now.
Thank you for offering the bet. I would have taken it. Unfortunately I see it just now that I have an update on the matter. See below.
Constant vigilance when dealing with oracles!
Agree.
I agree with all points regarding actual risks which match my own actions and the recommendations I give friends and family.
The only point where my probability estimates seems to noticeable differs from yours is with HCQ:
11. Best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective: 20%
I sold to 15%, given studies are actively being halted let’s knock that down to 10% now.
I think it is still relatively likely that there are combinations of HCQ with esp. Zinc that might work. I have updated toward them not working by now but would still give them at least 40%. Pure HCQ obviously not. I would offer a bet between your 10% and my 40% i.e. 1 to 3 that in the end a treatment with HCQ plus other active ingredients turns out to be effective.
Disclaimer: I follow ScottAdamsSays on Twitter and while he is also uncertain the potential upsides seem to be huge. He mentions use as a prophylactic for personell at risk like medical and police. He pushes further looking into it and there are many posts about other countries using combinations of HCQ with Zinc and others. You mention Zinc yourself. It seems plausible that Zinc is the active ingredient and HCQ enables its uptake. I seem to remember that CellBioGuy also wrote something along these lines.
This is also how we do it. Works well for e.g. Set or Zoff im Zoo.
Other alternatives:
if you have many (mostly adult) players the kid can play with one player and they let the kid execute the turn (e.g. place a card or execute pieces, throw dice and move etc.). The next level here is that the kid suggest moves and the adult supervises. This works best for traditional board games like Ludo, Malefiz. But also with Catan or Robo Ralley.
The games overall goes as usual and the kid plays one role—but errors are OK or are corrected if that makes sense. One traditional example in germany is Oma Skat. But it works with many games. Poker works, Bluff/Perudo is another good example. This changes the dynamic of the game for the other players because they have to accommodate a level of ‘randomness’. Works best if winning is not essential for the kid and being able to make reasonable moves is rewarding enough.
Scaling the game by skill level. Our kids all wanted to join in Boggle and partly learned reading from it. The scoring was scaled down by allowing single letter words and any mis-spellings and scoring up to 3 less letters.
Games like Take it easy where everybody has their own board.
The result is that the kids reach a surprising level of proficiency very quickly. We routinely play Talisman, Risk (legacy!) with an 8-year-old.
Can you share the fanfic tree in a higher resolution?