Further updates:
On the one hand, Nate Silver’s model now gives Trump a ~30% chance of winning in Virginia, making my side of the bet look good again.
On the other hand, the Economist model gives Trump a 10% chance of winning Delaware and a 20% chance of winning Illinois, which suggests that there’s something going wrong with the model and that it was untrustworthy a month ago.
That said, betting markets currently think there’s only a one in four chance that Biden is the nominee, so this bet probably won’t resolve.
[this comment is irrelevant to the point you actually care about and is just nit-picking about the analogy]
There is a pretty big divide between “liberal” and “conservative” Christianity that is in some ways bigger than the divide between different denominations. In the US, people who think of themselves as “Episcopalians” tend to be more liberal than people who call themselves “Baptists”. In the rest of this comment, I’m going to assume we’re talking about conservative Anglicans rather than Episcopalians (those terms referring to the same denominational family), and also about conservative Baptists, since they’re more likely to be up to stuff / doing meaningful advocacy, and more likely to care about denominational distinctions. That said, liberal Episcopalians and liberal Baptists are much more likely to get along, and also openly talk about how they’re in cooperation.
My guess is that conservative Anglicans and Baptists don’t spend much time at each other’s churches, at least during worship, given that they tend to have very different types of services and very different views about the point of worship (specifically about the role of the eucharist). Also there’s a decent chance they don’t allow each other to commune at their church (more likely on the Baptist end). Similarly, I don’t think they are going to have that much social overlap, altho I could be wrong here. There’s a good chance they read many of the same blogs tho.
In terms of policy advocacy, on the current margin they are going to mostly agree—common goals are going to be stuff like banning abortion, banning gay marriage, and ending the practice of gender transition. Anglican groups are going to be more comfortable with forms of state Christianity than Baptists are, altho this is lower-priority for both, I think. They are going to advocate for their preferred policies in part by denominational policy bodies, but also by joining common-cause advocacy organizations.
Both Anglican and Baptist churches are largely going to be funded by members, and their members are going to be disjoint. That said it’s possible that their policy bodies will share large donor bases.
They are also organized pretty differently internally: Anglicans have a very hierarchical structure, and Baptists having a very decentralized structure (each congregation is its own democratic policy, and is able to e.g. vote to remove the pastor and hire a new one)
Anyway: I’m pretty sympathetic to the claim of conservative Anglicans and Baptists being meaningfully distinct power bases, altho it would be misleading to not acknowledge that they’re both part of a broader conservative Christian ecosystem with shared media sources, fashions, etc.
Part of the reason this analogy didn’t vibe for me is that Anglicans and Baptists are about as dissimilar as Protestants can get. If it were Anglicans and Presbyterians or Baptists and Pentecostals that would make more sense, as those denominations are much more similar to each other.