I have a tentative hypothesis that the US is quite precarious. Although I believe we have likely avoided the worst outcomes this year, I think the next 10-30 yrs have some reasonable chance of going very badly. I don’t know what that means, nor what the implications are for top cause areas.
I want to create a reading/listening list for exploring all this. Things I’m interested in:
history, particularly broad arcs/analysis of history (e.g., maybe I should read some Peter Turchin stuff)
history, particularly significant changes in global power dynamics (where power also involves technological advancement or similar)
....other things I’m not thinking of that feel relevant
I have no background here at all. So even very basic recommendations would be appreciated.
Search for “Samo Burja” on YouTube.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9477.2011.00265.x
Recommend this paper, which suggests that wealthy democracies never fall.