This suggests that a humidity between 50-60% is optimal https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/
Thank you for writing such a clear article on the issue. Cleared up my confusion around EMH, and especially how it differs from the random walk hypothesis. I’ll definitely reference this article when people bring up EMH.
Maybe people should, after removing a mask, wash their hands, then their faces (with a cloth too perhaps), and then their hands again?
I’d imagine increased costs first squeeze ‘existing’ profits before prices rise so maybe publicly owned grocery companies would be a good enough (indirect) proxy.
I think some encouragement is warranted, especially for people that know how to do it most effectively. I wouldn’t expect any of this to replace existing food supplies, but it might help complement them.
I think I get what you’re saying. Is it roughly the following?
“If an AI race did occur, maybe similar issues to what we saw in MAD might occur; there may well be an analogy there. But there’s a disanalogy between the nuclear weapon case and the AI risk case with regards to the initial race, such that the initial nuclear race provides little/no evidence that a similar AI race may occur. And if a similar AI race doesn’t occur, then the conditions under which MAD-style strategies may arise would not occur. So it might not really matter if there’s an analogy between the AI risk situation if a race occurred and the MAD situation.”
If so, I think that makes sense to me, and it seems an interesting/important argument. Though it seems to suggest something more like “We may be more ok than people might think, as long as we avoid an AI race, and we’ll probably avoid an AI race”, rather than simply “We may be more ok than people might think”. And that distinction might e.g. suggest additional value to strategy/policy/governance work to avoid race dynamics, or to investigate how likely they are. (I don’t think this is disagreeing with you, just highlighting a particular thing a bit more.)
So you’ve updated your unconditional estimate from ~5% (1 in 20) to ~9%? If so, people may have to stop citing you as an “optimist”… (which was already perhaps a tad misleading, given what the 1 in 20 was about)
(I mean, I know we’re all sort-of just playing with incredibly uncertain numbers about fuzzy scenarios anyway, but still.)
In the broader rationality/EA community there was also a Siderea post on Jan 30 and an 80K podcast on Feb 3 (along with a followup podcast on Feb 14).
These two, plus Matthew Barnett’s late Jan EA Forum post (which you linked), are the three examples I recall which look most like early visible public alarms from the rationality/EA community.
Other writing was less visible (e.g., on Twitter, Facebook, or Metaculus), less alarm-like (discussions of some aspect of what was happening rather than a call to attention), or later (like the putanumonit Seeing the Smoke post on Feb 27).
This is not particularly credible.
It’s also not particularly important.
Even if it were 100 percent true, it would be what I believe Less Wrong likes to call an “infohazard”. Unless you want to literally get people killed, you don’t want to spread this stuff.
Note: I’m one of those people who has taken up gardening for lack of other activities, and we’ve probably spent $200 so far, and that’s WITH me getting a lot of free stuff from e.g. Nextdoor (which is a big time sink, because it disappears pretty fast)
Well that’s reassuring.
Do you know of any videos on this? Ideally while the person is narrating their thoughts out loud.
What is the plan going forward for interviews? Are you planning to interview people who are more pessimistic?
Sadly Google Docs really doesn’t like being hosted on external websites, so I would try to upload them somewhere else (imgur works well for me).
I’m currently exploring a possible feature wherein question-authors, and moderators, can flag answers as “Top Answers”, which trigger the question moving to the top of the home page, and adding the most recent “top answer” author as a co-author of the post.
Not 100% sure on the implementation details. Does that sound like that would help with this problem?
Thank you for the offer, I am however currently reluctant to interact with people I met on the internet in this way. But know that your openness and forthcomingness is greatly appreciated :)
See this for some commentary on that study (and others)
Yeah the only way I can see that prices now would rise in anticipation of months-away shortages would be someone buying loads of nonperishable food and putting it into a warehouse for storage. No one would do that at scale; they would expect to be vilified and their property confiscated.
Maybe we could look at the price of some financial instrument to learn the market’s belief about future food prices, but I wouldn’t know the details.
Bill Gates is on it.
In particular, the combination of the glycans right next to the polybasic cleavage site suggests that the selection for the cleavage site probably occurred in the presence of an immune system rather than in culture.