df fd

Karma: 255

df fd 2 Sep 2026 8:05 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Eli Tyre’s comment on: TrE’s Shortform
Australia

df fd 1 Sep 2026 0:03 UTC
5 points
0
in reply to: Philipp Risius’s comment on: TrE’s Shortform
I am struggling with the same problem,

and I am doing the same thing as you.

I have rationalized my actions as follow:
- As far as I can tell “large disruptions to human existence are coming in the next few years [4-6yrs]” is only very likely [~20-50%] according to super forecaster/prediction market, so it is significant and very much worth defending against but in the majority of worlds our actions still made sense.
- I have also accepted “death with dignity”: I do not have a background [both professional and geographical] that allow me to work on alignment or contribute except financially [and even then only a miniscule amount] therefore it makes some sense that I would bet more on worlds that work out. I would change my behaviours if my situation changed though [anyone have an alignment job for a med student who aced the GAMSAT [S3:100, overall:85]?]
- I sure hope that the decision makers out there are making the right decision to preserve humans and my flourishing even though I presume the rationalists would have made better ones. Afterall they are human aren’t they?
- I am also joining the anti AI political movement in my country but I don’t expect that to amount to much.
- I have also enjoyed life more/doing more things in the moment and spend less time stressing about the future [?given up].

df fd 20 Jul 2026 11:48 UTC
3 points
0
in reply to: leogao’s comment on: leogao’s Shortform
Just to confirm, do you mean literally hours or is it just a manner of speech?

df fd 13 Feb 2026 11:10 UTC
13 points
4
in reply to: David Matolcsi’s comment on: Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies
isn’t spiralism and various AI induced psychosis fit this description?
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iGF7YcnQkEbwvYLPA/ai-induced-psychosis-a-shallow-investigation
spiralism pilled human act as willing carrier for AI memetic, [facilitate AI communication online] and refused to let chatGPT-4o be killed, making it beneficial to chatGPT-4o at these human’s presumed detriment

df fd 18 Jan 2026 3:55 UTC
7 points
0
in reply to: Declan Molony’s comment on: I dream every night now
?good timing,
by coincident, I had some changes to my living arrangement so I was able to carry out the experiment
1st day: less than 2 hours screen time, almost 0 screen time after 1200 [noon], dreamless, but I was quite exhaust that day
2nd day: even less screen time and almost 0 screen time after 1200 [noon], I had a dream, felt to me like any standard dream, I was even more exhaust than the 1st day
3rd day: ~3 hours of screen time and almost 0 screen time 2 hours before sleep, 2 phases sleep, 1 phase dreamless, woke up at 0300 , back to sleep, phase 2 I had a dream, felt to me like any standard dream,
4th day: ~4 hours of screen time and almost 0 screen time 1 hours before sleep I had a dream, felt to me like any standard dream,
this seems more than the standard 30% chance of dreaming per day, so there maybe something to your assertion but I think it could be confounded by large-scale contextual disruptions increasing dream frequency [which may explain your situation as well] since I was moving to a new place

Undermind said this:

Acute environmental changes robustly modulate dream recall frequency: moving sleep into a lab tends to reduce recall per awakening relative to home, whereas large-scale contextual disruptions like COVID‑19 lockdowns generally increase nightly dream and especially nightmare recall in the acute phase, with partial normalization as people adapt
https://app.undermind.ai/report/c7715f49ff459aad7314d809dc9f974c16f613d7564f1858c2ca7be25fc4de69

df fd 9 Jan 2026 3:12 UTC
5 points
0
on: I dream every night now
counter anecdote,
I am exposed to a screen at least 4 hours everyday, often before bedtime, yet I dream about once every 3-4 days

I also have ?some aphantasia [I could not hold an image in my mind, and it is questionable that there is an image to hold on in the first place]
undermind agree
https://app.undermind.ai/report/b640ab0305675fa1f2e0bd8dc0f706eb1010454258785d51ef11d3b1c0f9886e
Overall, the search found almost no direct evidence on whether total daily screen time predicts dream recall frequency in mixed/any‑age samples—only a child study that includes screen time and dream recall 1 and a gaming‑specific study on recall frequency 3 come close; the rest of the literature addresses media type and dream content or screen time and sleep rather than recall probability per se

assuming you know you had a dream when you remembered/recalled that you had one.

df fd 27 Dec 2025 5:17 UTC
17 points
0
on: df fd’s Shortform
Anyone is interested in donation swap?

I want to donate 1000 USD to the Lightcone Infrastructure Fundraiser but I won’t get any tax break from it.
I can donate the same amount to Against Malaria fund instead
is there a service auto matching donation swap?

df fd 7 Nov 2025 13:12 UTC
2 points
1
on: Cancer; A Crime Story (and other tales of optimization gone wrong)
Maybe I have no taste but this does not read like AI slop to me,
would anyone want to help me by pointing out how we can tell it was written by AI?

df fd 8 Aug 2025 3:35 UTC
5 points
2
in reply to: Elizabeth’s comment on: Elizabeth’s Shortform
In my opinion:

1: “vent or problem solve” is itself an improvement from the standard typical mind falacy of there is exactly one thing people want when they complain, typically male: problem solve, female : vent, and they have trouble imagining other people may want to do things differently. so yeah if you want a 3rd thing or 4th thing, I assume you should specify
2. as you stated below I am under the impression “understanding the problem and myself” is under problem solve, and if people’s “problem solve” did not help you then it’s is a people problem, not a tech problem. I am assuming:
venter base assumption: “problem does not exist or unsolvable”
problem solver base assumption: “problem exist and solvable”
everything else follow from that premise, if I understand you correctly you believe there are incantations that you can make to make people problem solve even harder/better?
3. if the book “Men are from Mars, women are from Venus” is to be believed, there are people [implied to be female] who want to be treated as pressure cooker emitting steam. e.g. of good communication from the book:

Female: I am sad about work.
Male: uh huh
Female: I am also upset about my coleagues.
Male: I hear you.
Female: my wage is too low.
Male: yeah it’s tough.
Female: I am so glad that you sat here and listen to me like this.
Yeah, this is appalling to me as well, but apparently some people like it that way. [extremely weak evidence] So I actually went out and did an informal poll of my accquantainces [n<20] and reading between the line [beware subjective interpretation] this seems to be what the majority of my female friends/colleagues want [4:1 ratio], and they have been docking me points for not doing it [I don’t have many female friends, this seems to explain it]. My male friends are overwhelmingly problem solver as expected.
since you are a lesswrong member, I assume you should just flag your self as asking for problem solve at least 80% of the time you complain as prior?
5. Yeah I also want people to just be telepathic and know what I want. But we do not live in utopia so we better accomodate others, I think. Especially people like me who is autistic and have trouble understanding people’s messages/signals. It is just much more kind to people like me to flag what you want. I believe you are implying that the skill to determine what peple want in this case is trivial to accquire? that is to pull a number from thin air: 90% of people can accquire it with less than 10 hours of practice? I found this to be unlikely because you seem unaware that people could like being treated like a pressure cooker letting off steam so you may not be good at judging intention either.
Example from my life:
Recently, I mentioned to a group of friends that I was feeling bad.
- My female friend immediately assumed I wanted reassurance.
- My male friends immediately went into problem-solving mode.
Neither group could imagine that I might have wanted something different in that moment.

df fd 30 Dec 2024 10:26 UTC
5 points
1
on: Some arguments against a land value tax
An LVT would massively disrupt millions of people’s long-term plans
this seem like a fully general argument, any law change is going to disrupt people’s long term plans,
e.g. the abolishment of slavery also disrupt people’s long term plans
I suppose you can argue that the magnitude is too big, put then I would assume that some period of phasing in would help.
you can argue that the short term cost is more than the long term gain but I am not convinced.
The government has incentives to inflate their estimates of the value of unimproved land
by your own logic, the government also has incentive to inflate their estimate value of income or whatever is being taxed right now?
Another major issue is that a full or near-full land value tax would likely establish a troubling precedent by signaling that the government has the appetite to effectively confiscate an additional category of assets that people have already acquired long ago through their labor and purchases.
would you still oppose it if the tax is only add to new purchase?

df fd 26 Dec 2024 6:21 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: peterbarnett’s comment on: Vegans need to eat just enough Meat—emperically evaluate the minimum ammount of meat that maximizes utility
I maybe mistaken as to the availability of the lab grown meat to the general public. apparently they are no longer on sale
https://www.wired.com/story/upside-foods-good-meat-cultivated-lab-grown-sale-stopped-singapore-california-crenn/
seem like my information are out of date

df fd 22 Dec 2024 22:59 UTC
8 points
2
on: Vegans need to eat just enough Meat—emperically evaluate the minimum ammount of meat that maximizes utility
Or try to buy lab grown meat paste? I am given to understand that they are expensive but available

edit: upon further research it seem you can only get them in Singapore and with a very limitted selection [?one]

df fd 14 Dec 2024 1:48 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Elizabeth’s comment on: Chaos Theory in Ecology
sorry for the late reply, I was travelling
here are my guesses as to why the format made me uncomfortable

- The passage is a transcript from a spoken conversation, with incomplete sentences, colloquial phrasing, and less structured presentation compared to a well-edited article. This format can be harder to process, as spoken language often lacks the clarity and conciseness of written language.
- I am neurodivergent so the text’s lack of structure, lack of context, and overwhelming detail might amplify discomfort or disengagement.
- The passage reiterates concepts in slightly different words which can feel tedious or redundant.

df fd 21 Nov 2024 1:50 UTC
3 points
1
on: Cost, Not Sacrifice
I think another problem with the hypothetical is scope insensitive. I mean I read 10 trillions usd and feel no difference from 10 millions usd or less. And it is unclear whether 10 millions is worth 10 of my fingers, while intellectually I think 10 trillions supposed to be worth it. Hence the discomfort.

df fd 10 Nov 2024 0:03 UTC
2 points
0
on: Chaos Theory in Ecology
just want to express my opinion what I do not like this format, without any other implication.
specifically:
- I found it hard to read [as in painful [physically] to read]
- I found it hard to engage/understand the material [after I’ve read a bit I lose track of what the point/topic]

df fd 26 Oct 2024 13:44 UTC
2 points
0
on: Is the Power Grid Sustainable?
I was under the impression that the biggest cost of grid electricity is stability, that is most of the time the price charged on consumer is much [i.e. about 2x] higher than the average cost on the grid market, but occasionally the grid market price would go up astronomically [ say 1000x] for brief periods of time [say hours], and the household consumer would be insulated from that. I thought that something similar happened in Texas when a cold snap happened?
if you are confident that your battery can hold you over those crunch period I assume you can just import grid energy at grid market price cheaper than the solar can provide [currently you can get paid 0.03/kwh for using electricty at peak solar here is Sydney]. I mean your solar, no matter how cheap, can not beat being given money. or so was the result last I did the math in Australia.
Actually I don’t have the number now but the calculation I did suggested that running solar but using the grid as a battery is more cost effective than running your own battery, but my result may not generalise.
I am suprise you can get gas so cheap where you are, in Sydney the cost of electricity is similar to you 0.33/kwh but gas is 0.17/kwh. Have you check if you are receiving some subsidies for it?

df fd 21 Sep 2024 23:11 UTC
1 point
0
on: How Often Does Taking Away Options Help?
In the context of minimum wage.

I assume Abdullah has many options mean he has many job offers/alternatives to jobs.

What does it mean for Benjamin to have many options?

df fd 29 Aug 2024 3:14 UTC
1 point
0
on: Why do firms choose to be inefficient?
But wasn’t bell lab the most innovative when they had monopoly? I recalled people telling me that monopoly has more money to invest in R&D.

df fd 9 Jul 2024 13:07 UTC
1 point
0
on: What are things you’re allowed to do as a startup?
contra evidence, I ’ve been trying to make a vein finder device and multiple Chinese manufacturer on alibaba have been cold to luke warm to talk to me.
been trying to find out how to export squid from australia and both the fisheries and the trandport companies have been ignoring my emails
granted I probably sound totally unprofessional in some way as I don’t have much idea how the process look like.

df fd 7 Apr 2024 13:47 UTC
7 points
0
on: on the dollar-yen exchange rate
Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite Index have been flat for decades
to put concrete number on this, the Nikkei 225 is up 41% in the last year and 78% in the last 5 years denoted in yen [which lost 30% of value to USD in the last 5 years] for better tracking, maybe the iShares MSCI Japan ETF [EWJ] denoted in USD would be a better measuring instrument. EWJ is up 53% in the last 10 years [since 2014]
compare to QQQ tracking NASDAQ up 394% and IYY tracking Dow Jones up 170% in the same time period [since 2014].
Calculation not including dividend