Another example of a dictator driven from power by losing a war is the Greek Junta. They instigated a coup in Cyprus, triggering an invasion by Turkey, and then lost power at home.
But Bruce Bueno de Mosquita claims that dictators are much better at cutting their losses and surviving, whereas democracies double down and escalate to total war.
I have not read the book, but my memory is that in a blog post he said that the probability is “at least” 10%. I think he holds a much higher number, but doesn’t want to speak about it and just wants to insist that his hostile reader should accept at least 10%. In particular, if people say “no it won’t happen, 10%,” then that’s not a rebuttal at all. But maybe I’m confusing that with other numbers, eg, here where he says that it’s worth talking about even if it is only 1%.
Here he reports old numbers and new:
I think that means he previously put 15% on ems in general and 5% on his em scenario (ie, you were right).
80% on the specific scenario leaves little room for AI, let alone AI destroying all value. So maybe he now puts that <1%. But maybe he has just removed non-em non-AI scenarios. In particular, you have to put a lot of weight on completely unanticipated scenarios; perhaps that has gone from 80% to 10%.