This is utterly deranged and I’m not sure if it was meant as a joke or not, but fuck I enjoyed it, and holy shit that WebMD link is absolutely crazy. Thanks for posting.
In all seriousness: I suspect we should explore such crazy ideas at least intellectually, just because we never know where the mind could turn after having considered them.
pick every company in proportion to their market cap
I didn’t know this, now it makes much more sense, thank you.
Yes, right, so to continue this line of thought: since more diversified means less risk, Gwern would want to buy VTSAX if he needs to spend that money in a relatively short time horizon. If this isn’t the reason, though, from what I gathered from a personal finance book I read years ago, funds tracking S&P500 always outperformed funds tracking the entire U.S. equity market over long periods (is this actually true?). So I was curious about why Gwern made such a choice in case the reason I hypothesized (he is investing money he potentially needs shorter-term) was wrong and there are actually good reasons to buy funds tracking the total US equity market even when saving long term.
Why not S&P500?
Once you have dealt with signaling, one other huge problem remains. I have met just one person IRL who actually invests (my brother). Everyone else isn’t aware safe investment options exist and they just put everything in the bank account. Also, in my experience, middle-aged and older people tend to downplay their wealth and not brag about it (why? Not entirely sure). Younger people instead seem more braggy… but most young people aren’t very wealthy. This is just my experience though. I wonder if it is actually common.
Another angle to view this is “coming up with ideas is compulsory if you want to optimize literally everything”. Bonus: when you practice holding off proposing solutions, ideas are usually better.
True. Thanks for the good tip. I might actually implement it now that the weather and temperature are nicer.
Italy. House of 5 people. A city with around 1k cases per day for a few months. One person goes to school, sees friends, invites friends into the house. Another travels abroad or inside the country for a few days every 10 days or so and doesn’t always get tested when returning. When he is in the house he also invites his girlfriend, eats out, sees friends, etc. In the microcovid test site I put 5 ppl house with 10 close contacts for lack of better options. Sounds reasonable?
Edit: Italy’s vaccination rate sucks. Not gonna see a vaccine for me or anyone in the house with risky behavior till 2022
My risk should be from 19% to 82% probability in the next six months. This, if I always remain in the house. In order to avoid that, I should put my life on hold and get a full-time job I dislike. And people call me exaggerated and crazy both IRL and online. Long-term consequences of Covid are what worry me the most. Idk how to deal with this tbh. Genuinely asking.
The result is more paranoia ,_,
Berkeley people have it good. At least they are doing this together. Imagine being a Berkeley person at heart and being in a completely anti-Berkeley environment.
I thought lvl 10 wasn’t about that anymore, but you may be right
Level 10′s more ground-level explanation should be something like “If I say “There’s not a lion across the river.” I’m getting downvoted and if I say “There’s a lion across the river” I’m getting upvoted?”I’m trying to not use the expression “trying to mind control you”. But stated this way it’s not that different from lvl 3. Maybe lvl 10 is lvl 3 + an explicit selection mechanism such as upvotes or downvotes. But one could argue that such incentives exist regardless of how explicit they are.
Thanks for your service, Mingyuan. 10⁄10.
Does the fact that Alcor is co-owner create difficulties if you want to change cryonics provider at some point? Example: new tech (e.g. aldehyde stabilized cryopreservation) gets offered somewhere else but not at Alcor, so you want to change.
Nvm, I received confirmation and the answer was yes :)
From the Alcor Associate Member page:
To become an Associate Member use our Associate Membership Form to send a check, money order, or credit card information ($5 per month or $60 per year) to Alcor Life Extension Foundation, 7895 E. Acoma Dr., Suite 110, Scottsdale, Arizona 85260, or call Marji Klima at (480) 905-1906 ext. 101 with your credit card information.Or you can pay online via PayPal using the Join button below (quarterly option is not available this way). Please note that this will set up automatic recurring charges of either $5 per month or $60 per year. You do not need a PayPal account to make a payment to Alcor (however, your browser will need to accept a harmless PayPal cookie or you will get an error message). If you want to receive Cryonics magazine, be sure to include your name and mailing address.
To become an Associate Member use our Associate Membership Form to send a check, money order, or credit card information ($5 per month or $60 per year) to Alcor Life Extension Foundation, 7895 E. Acoma Dr., Suite 110, Scottsdale, Arizona 85260, or call Marji Klima at (480) 905-1906 ext. 101 with your credit card information.
Or you can pay online via PayPal using the Join button below (quarterly option is not available this way). Please note that this will set up automatic recurring charges of either $5 per month or $60 per year. You do not need a PayPal account to make a payment to Alcor (however, your browser will need to accept a harmless PayPal cookie or you will get an error message). If you want to receive Cryonics magazine, be sure to include your name and mailing address.
From what is written I gather that setting up the PayPal payment is enough to become an associate member and compiling the form is not necessary, correct?Btw, thanks A LOT for this sequence. I currently live in Italy, my home country, but this is still HUGELY useful for me. I plan to move to the US eventually and even if I decide to postpone my real subscription for when I’ll be there and I will have an actual income, this sequence will guide my decisions moving forward.
I dont’t know actually (for both questions). And I’m not sure how many billionaires like this there are.
The thing that’s very unclear to me is why SENS has so little funding if that’s framework is now consensus
Because they choose the most neglected (long-term/difficult/high-risk high-reward) projects within the Hallmark framework (I talked extensively about this in my posts if you want to take a peek).
I feel like this kind of thing has been on the rise since the early 2010s, although it might just be me being in more places on the internet. Sort of the sentiment Eliezer expresses here (from where I took the quote at the end).Initially, open and continuous contempt for other people and for other communities was a thing I saw mainly happening in the context of fandoms and tight groups. Example: in the anime community, in particular literature communities, etc. places where sometimes sorta-narcissistic people form groups to fight other groups with different tastes, mainly to establish an identity in which they are better than other people for made-up reasons (this is obviously not new… hello WWII?).Now I see it done everywhere. I feel it is a result of identity politics and more discussions over moral stuff in general, AND of more tight-knit communities, that, as Yudkowsky pointed out way earlier than it got out of control from my POV, they naturally tend to form cults. Now if you enter basically any community and you say the wrong thing you get murdered with negative internet points and scorn. I guess you could use this for some effective anti-conformity training?The formation of large communities with the only purpose of scorn I feel it is part of the same phenomenon. The sentiment “I am better than you” and “people who disgust me must die (socially unacceptable instances in my group excluded)” might have been born in small communities and then expanded in large ones. There is also the hypothesis that this is due to the internet now populated by everyone, and the themes changed (Scott Alexander wrote about how before this era there was the atheism vs. religion era, which produced discourse that was at least sorta linked with reality and not happening only above it in the social context).
When someone politely presents themselves with a careful argument, does your cultural software tell you that you’re supposed to listen and make a careful response, or make fun of the other person and then laugh about how they’re upset? What about when your own brain tries to generate a careful argument? Does your cultural milieu give you any examples of people showing how to really care deeply about something (i.e. debate consequences of paths and hew hard to the best one), or is everything you see just people competing to be loud in their identification?