To add to this, I’ve noticed something that I do when I’m programming is rely on various constructs/built-ins that I have a solid gears-level model of. I often find myself unwilling to use functions/constructions where I don’t understand why they do what they do because I’m worried that the code might cause unintended effects that cause bugs, especially since debugging is extremely difficult without gears-level models.
I think the ideal programmer maintains probability distributions over whether or not they understand what various parts of their code is doing. If there is a bug, then they have some weighting over where the bug probably is, enabling faster debugging.
Probably? The reason I like the coleto is primarily for the multiple colors. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NfdHG6oHBJ8Qxc26s/the-zettelkasten-method-1#Use_of_Color describes the basic partitioning of content that I assign to colors, which I have found super useful so far.
yes—they work great with my pixel3a.
For the people who don’t know acronyms (me), RSI stands for repetitive strain injury.
Seems like it potentially increases my productivity by a non-trivial amount. Just ordered one. Thanks!
Custom—the ink cartridges need to be designed for the pen specifically.
Apple’s Airpod Pro are an extremely good pair of wireless earbuds, even for people without other apple products. They’re comfortable, stay in my ears fairly well, and have pretty good noise canceling.
High quality wireless earbuds in general are extremely valuable to me as they increase my willingness to exercise by a significant margin.
Uniqlo’s Stretch Sweatpants are the only pants I’ve worn for the past month. They’re fairly cheap, the fabric is high quality, and the pockets have zippers.
The Pilot Hi-Tec-C Coleto 4 is the best pen I’ve used among 10+ pens. The ink is very smooth, it’s highly customizable, and it’s narrow enough to fit comfortably in the hand. The Coleto 5 is too thick. The downside is that the ink in the individual cartridges runs out very quickly. This is mitigated because replacing ink cartridges in a pen feels exciting.
It’s not a random walk among probabilities, it’s a random walk among questions, which have associated probabilities. This results in a non-random walk downwards in probability.
The underlying distribution might be described best as “nearly all questions cannot be decided with probabilities that are as certain as 0.999999”.
There is a difference in “error in calculation” versus “error in interpreting the question”. The former affects the result in such a way that makes it roughly as likely to go up as down. If you err in interpreting the question, you’re placing higher probability mass on other questions, which you are less than 0.999999 certain about on average. Roughly, I’m saying that you expect regression to the mean effects to apply in proportion to the uncertainty. E.g. If I tell you I scored an 90% on my test for which the average was a 70%, then you expect me to score a bit lower on a test of equal difficulty. However, if I tell you that I guessed on half the questions, then you should expect me to score a lot lower than you did if you assumed I guessed on 0 questions.
I don’t know why the last comment is relevant. I agree that 1 in a million odds happen 1 in a million times. I also agree that people win the lottery. My interpretation is that it means “sometimes people say impossible when they really mean extremely unlikely”, which I agree is true.
Not so. “X is guilty” is a very specific hypothesis and 0.99999999 is Very Confident, so general increases in uncertainty should make you think it’s less likely that “X is guilty” is true. For example, if I’m told I misread the question, since I will not be 0.99999999 confident on nearly every question, since I now have non-trivial probability mass on other questions, I should become less confident.
The result is that it takes a specific misreading to make you more confident and that most misreadings will make you less confident, so you should become less confident.
Tried this with no noticeable effect except for noticing the sensations in my feet more throughout the day.
Reminds me of something Nate Soares wrote:
When I was quite young, one of the guests at our house refused to eat processed food. I remember that I offered her some fritos and she refused. I was fairly astonished, and young enough to be socially inept. I asked, incredulous, how someone could not like fritos. To my surprise, she didn’t brush me off or feed me banal lines about how different people have different tastes. She gave me the answer of someone who had recently stopped liking fritos through an act of will. Her answer went something like this: “Just start noticing how greasy they are, and how the grease gets all over your fingers and coats the inside of the bag. Notice that you don’t want to eat things soaked in that much grease. Become repulsed by it, and then you won’t like them either.”
Now, I was a stubborn and contrary child, so her ploy failed. But to this day, I still notice the grease. This woman’s technique stuck with me. She picked out a very specific property of a thing she wanted to stop enjoying and convinced herself that it repulsed her.
I failed to see the first link and am embarassed.
ah, I meant the link from “Here is the link to join.”
could I have the link? it doesn’t appear to have been copied over.
Can you link your ergodox config? I’m currently trying to build mine and suffering from feature creep.
I was using my phone too much in bed, so I moved my phone charger far enough that it wouldn’t reach my bed.
I’m fine with uncertain answers if the response is qualified, e.g. “I did one-shot-things A, B along with non-one-shot-thing C and observed that Y problem was solved after. Subjectively, it feels like A solved most of the problem.”