Just this guy, you know?
Dagon
Karma: 6,097
I think this is simultaneously too weak a statement, and too harsh a judgement of analogies. In truth, ALL analogies are wrong. The entire point is that there are two distinct things/situations that you’re comparing. There are going to be differences which your analogy ignores.
However, this is just a subset of the fact that all models are wrong. The entire discussion is about maps, not territory. Reality is simply too complex to fully understand or communicate, so you internally use analogies and models to predict bits of it. There’s no avoiding that.I take your point that arguing and convincing are generally indicators that you’re moving away from truth-seeking. In those cases, analogy isn’t the problem; there’s a more fundamental power dynamic that’s getting in the way.
None of my beliefs feel weird to me—I find it weird that many/most people seem to believe different things.
For this site, I’ll go with radical anti-realism. All value is personal and relative—there is no objective view or measure about moral decisions. Crowley had it right (on this point; he was wackadoo on others) “Do what thou wilt, and then do nothing else”.
I think you’re missing an underlying point about the Boltzmann Brain concept—simulating an observer’s memory and perception is (probably) much easier than simulating the things that seem to cause the perceptions.
Once you open up the idea that universes and simulations are subject to probability, a self-contained instantaneous experiencer is strictly more probable than a universe which evolves the equivalent brain structure and fills it with experiences, or a simulation of the brain plus some particles or local activity which change it over time.
A lot depends on how much personal control you have of when and what kind of vaccine you get. If you knew for certain you could wait 3 weeks and get your preferred vaccine, that’s probably better than taking J&J today. But if there’s a fair chance that you WON’T be able to—either you’ll have to wait much longer or take J&J anyway, you’re probably better off just taking it now.
The driving factor is just how much COVID-19 sucks, and the cost of getting it during that voluntary gap. If you’re truly comfortable and truly locked down, then waiting longer is more reasonable, and it also lets people who need it more than you get it sooner. In that case, delays of up to a few months may be justified. If you’re only mostly locked down (as I am—I still go out briefly a few times a week for things that can’t easily be delivered), then delay is riskier and you should prioritize any vaccine, delaying no more than a week or two.
The flip side of this is tradeoff bias (a term I just made up—it’s related to false dichotomies). Assuming you have to give up something to get a desired goal, and that costs always equal rewards is a mistake. Some people CAN get all As, excel at sports, and have a satisfying social life. Those people should absolutely do so.
I think the post has good underlying advice: don’t beat yourself up or make bad tradeoffs if you CAN’T have it all. Experimenting to understand tradeoffs, and making reasoned choices about what you really value is necessary. But don’t give up things you CAN get, just because you assume there’s a cost you can’t identify.
Anthropic reasoning is hard. It’s especially hard when there’s no outside position or evidence about the space of counterfactual possibilities (or really, any operational definition of “possible”).
I agree that we’re equally likely to be in any simulation (or reality) that contains us. But I don’t think that’s as useful as you seem to think. We have no evidence of the number or variety of simulations that match our experience/memory. I also like the simplicity assumption—Occam’s razor continues to be useful. But I’m not sure how to apply it—I very quickly run into the problem that “god is angry” is a much simpler explanation than a massive set of quantum interactions.
Is is simpler for someone to just simulate this experience I’m having, or to simulate a universe that happens to contain me? I really don’t know. I don’t find https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boltzmann_brain to be that compelling as a random occurrence, but I have to admit that as the result of an optimization/intentional process like a simulation, it’s simpler than the explanation that there has actually existed or been simulated the full history of specific things which I remember.
On self-reflection, I just plain don’t care about people far away as much as those near to me. Parts of me think I should, but other parts aren’t swayed. The fact that a lot of the motivating stories for EA don’t address this at all is one of the reasons I don’t listen very closely to EA advice.
I am (somewhat) an altruist. And I strive to be effective at everything I undertake. But I’m not an EA, and I don’t really understand those who are.
You’re overthinking this. First Doses First would have been the better policy a few months ago, but in most places it just hasn’t taken hold, and delivery has ramped up to the point that appointments are fairly easy to get for anyone who wants it. They’re often a few weeks out, but the optimization of delaying yours by X weeks to get someone else’s X weeks earlier is not worth the effort.
Get your second shot. Show everyone that getting the shots as recommended is the right general answer. Encourage standardization and avoid contrarianism and confusion, except on topics where it’s egregious and clearly needed.