Economist.
Sherrinford
Karma: 1,045
It seems the recent tariff designs already are serious policy. What do you mean by “added as a new centerpiece of the tax and spending regime”? What are the alternative futures?
Sorry, I confused something (not about the median, but about the 400). Thanks for illustrating.
729.1 + 3546.2 (90, 200, 400) [n=241]
About the Tokyo estimates: I assume that the (90, 200, 400) need to be corrected. But I misunderstand something.
What is the current status of CFAR? The website seems like it is inactive, which I find surprising given that there were four weekend workshops in 2022 that CFAR wanted to use for improving its workshops.
Musk recently wrote an opinion piece for the German newspaper Welt, calling on voters to vote for the far-right AfD party in the upcoming election. And now it seems that the article is practically the direct result of asking Grok for such an opinion piece. Is the way you produce such an opinion piece relevant? Possibly, because you might produce generic, cliched text that way and not realize how little you know. If so, efitors should realize that, of course.
What are recommendable essays discussing how to write essays?
Somewhat related as data points:
„A total of 565 studies from 80 different countries or regions were included in the final analysis. Postpartum depression was found in 17.22% (95% CI 16.00–18.51) of the world’s population.“ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41398-021-01663-6
„Many women experience labour-related and childbirth-related morbidity in the medium-to-long term after childbirth (ie, beyond 6 weeks postnatally). Available data show the most prevalent conditions are dyspareunia (35%), low back pain (32%), urinary incontinence (8–31%), anxiety (9–24%), anal incontinence (19%), depression (11–17%), tokophobia (6–15%), perineal pain (11%), and secondary infertility (11%).“ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(23)00454-0/fulltext
I think I did not assume anything away. I pointed out that the theory of comparative advantage rests on assumptions, in particular autonomy. If someone can just force you to surrender your production (without a loss of production value), he will not trade with you (except maybe if he is nice).
Exactly. But then what does “curiosity” signal? Not laziness (as suggested in the post), but the opposite, right? Just asking seems the lazier version.
“But nowadays curiosity was déclassé. It suggested laziness (why not just ask it?)…”
I think that does not work. Asking is easy, so asking is the lazy option.
Reminds me of this: “If you watch Stranger Things with your kids, there’s a good chance they think the strangest things of all are not the slimy monsters without faces but the kids riding their bikes without parental supervision.”
This does not have so much to do with child books vs books for grown-ups, though. I remember when everyone was reading Dan Brown and I know people who blamed themselves for it because it wasn’t considered real literature.
Skill in childcare is not going to correlate with ‘tests of cognitive ability’
This is a bold claim and would require evidence, at least according to my priors. It is a much stronger claim than saying that the cost-benefit-ratio is worse for requiring whatever educational achievement or IQ requirement someone might demand.
But certainly paying grandparents to do childcare seems way better than paying daycare centers to do childcare?
Well, who knows? Just from a bang-for-the-buck perspective, the answer depends on how much you have to pay grandparents for childcare, how much you have to pay kindergartners, how much quality differs and how many children each would supervise. As people have children at higher age, grandparents are older and probably cannot take as much stress as they could decades ago; as families are smaller, grandparents will take care of one or two children. (They could take care of children from outside the family, but then the question is whether you should make working more attractive and maybe subsidize for old people.)
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The researchers point to unexpected results in trials of school-based mental health interventions in the United Kingdom and Australia: Students who underwent training in the basics of mindfulness, cognitive behavioral therapy and dialectical behavior therapy did not emerge healthier than peers who did not participate, and some were worse off, at least for a while.
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This is a case where it would be interesting to see what “underwent training” actually means. If, for example, they did not count the students who lost interest and only counted those who remained in the study, then I would expect exactly this result.
… Apparently Obamacare included a recommended annual screening of teen girls for depression and HHS also mandated a change in how hospitals code injuries. …
This would be very interesting if we knew if these are just random people explaining superficial interpretations on Twitter or people who really formed hypotheses based on reasonable readings of the data. I had heard that Haidt used international data and not just Obamacare data, but I don’t know.
Moreover, I would assume that Schizophrenia in particular is not a condition that nowadays you would just act like you have it and in former times people did not care because there was no Obamacare.
What is strange about the graph though is that the data is starting in 2008 and the rate is always a comparison to 2008.
Lenore Skenazy: Sometimes some lady will call 911 when she sees a girl, 8, riding a bike. So it goes these days.
BUT the cops should be able to say, “Thanks, ma’am!”…and then DO NOTHING.
Instead, a cop stopped the kid, then went to her home to confront her parents.
That seems weird. Where I live (not in the US), many parents feel bad if their children are not able to ride a bike when they are 4 or 5 years old. (Of course we do not let them ride their bikes alone / in the traffic until they are older.)
Maybe the numerator of the score should remain at the initial karma until at least 4 people have voted, for example.
Thanks. I dud not see any, but I will check again. Maybe I also accidentally set them when i tried to check whether I had set any...
I will see whether I can make a useful one later on. Still, my main point is about the sorting score as stated in that referenced footnote: if indeed a post karma is divided by whatever, then I expect all 0 karma post to appear at the same position, and I expect the first person who votes to have a strong influence leading to herding, in particularif the personvotes the post to zero or lower. Right?
The list is very long, so it is hard to make a screenshot. Now with some hours of distance, I reloaded the homepage, tried again, and one 0 karma post appeared. (Last time, it did definitely not, I searched very rigorously.)
However, according to the mathematical formula, it still seems to me that all 0 karma post should appear at the same position, and negative karma posts below them?
Sorry, I don’t really understand your idea here. In the passive form of “they were understood to be unenforceable all along”, I do not understand who you think might have understood them to be unenforceable. The markets seem to understand them as enforceable to a relevant extent: “The S&P 500 sank nearly 6%, the Dow plunged 2,230 points, and the Nasdaq lost 5.8%, hitting their lowest levels since last May.” (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market) The movements on the markets have already had massive effects on who owns what, they have affected geopolitical relations and expectations about the future of these relations.
Yes, tariff-based taxation governments and income-based taxation governments are different. However, I don’t understand the comparison to the dark-forest government paradigm.