Do you have resources on this topic to recommend?
I fixed the typo.
At least for the time being, I’m abstracting the specifics from most of the things I learned, because they are pretty personal.
This was super useful for me. Reading this post was causal in starting to figure out how to do statistical analysis on my phenomenology-based psychological models. We’ll see where this goes, but it might be enough to convert my qualitative model-building into quantitative science!
One thing I guess I could share:
I often make choices based on plans that I’m excited about at the time. But very frequently I don’t actually get very far with those plans before they peter out and falter / I move on to something else. When I am making choices about what to do, I should take my current plans with a grain of salt, because things actually change a lot from that initial vission.
I think that’s pretty personal to me.
Here are some examples, though as I said, I think my own definition of a decision was too strict:
I went to that forecasting day that included Carl Shulman, Kajta, etc.
I didn’t do [multi week research project with some people].
I rejoined CFAR’s colloquium.
I decided to go to the mainline workshop in late February.
I bought a macbook air with a 512 GB hard drive and 18 GB of RAM. I returned it for a macbook pro with a 512 GB hard drive and 18 GB of RAM. This was $100 more expensive, but with a faster processor. For that reason I’m typing this on my old (often crashing) machine.
I opted not to attend the Bay NVC convergence facilitation training.
I returned my macbook pro to get a macbook air again, because of the better battery life.
I got on to Prague time the long way, by staying up late, sleeping all day, and then taking an evening plane, having a long travel day, then crashing, when I got to Europe.
I decided to come back from Europe early so that I could meet with Brienne and Duncan about instructor training, instead of hanging with FHI.
I didn’t join the conversation about [topic] between [people].
I downloaded [that sketchy file].
I told [employer] that I could do about 10 to 12 hours of [category] work in October.
I bought access to AWC’s demonstrations of Focusing.
I stayed two extra days in Prague and then had a flight that left at 9:00 AM from Prague to Copenhagen, and then a connecting flight from Copenhagen to Oakland. Getting up really early to go to the airport didn’t suit me much since I had been waking up around 10:00. So I bought an $85 ticket to Copenhagen a day early, and stayed in the cheapest Hostel I could find.
I think at least one trigger for flagging decisions might be something like “I’m about to ‘pull the trigger’ on something.” I have some amount of indecision, or conflictedness, and then I settle into one state or another.
Ooo. Thank you!
Deep Blue: a chess engine beats the reigning world chess champion, Gary Kasparov.
AlexNet in 2012. I’m not super clear on the details, but it seems to be the first time a deep neural net substantially outperformed other AI methods, and thereby kicked off the deep learning revolution.
Frank Rosenblatt develops the perceptron algorithm.
This is great. I was so pleased to see all those footnote citations.
Heh. This is a good observation.
Could it just be increasing literacy? One hypothesis might be that as more people read at all, the average reading level drops.
I agree that it doesn’t match up with the specific model that Eliezer outlines, but that model is part of a broader class of ideas with different time horizons. So I feel like this is still useful evidence.
I don’t know, one might say that Moloch is slowly winning. And I do expect things to change pretty radically soon, which might provide an opportunity for a coup de grace.