Vladimir_Nesov

Per­ma­nent Disem­pow­er­ment is the Baseline

Low P(x-risk) as the Bailey for Low P(doom)

Mus­ings on AI Com­pa­nies of 2025-2026 (Jun 2025)

Levels of Doom: Eu­topia, Disem­pow­er­ment, Extinction

Slow­down After 2028: Com­pute, RLVR Uncer­tainty, MoE Data Wall

Short Timelines Don’t De­value Long Hori­zon Research

Tech­ni­cal Claims

What o3 Be­comes by 2028

Mus­ings on Text Data Wall (Oct 2024)

Vladimir_Nesov’s Shortform

Su­per­in­tel­li­gence Can’t Solve the Prob­lem of De­cid­ing What You’ll Do

OpenAI o1, Llama 4, and AlphaZero of LLMs

Mus­ings on LLM Scale (Jul 2024)

No An­thropic Evidence

A Math­e­mat­i­cal Ex­pla­na­tion of Why Char­ity Dona­tions Shouldn’t Be Diversified

Con­se­quen­tial­ist For­mal Systems

Pre­dictabil­ity of De­ci­sions and the Di­ag­o­nal Method

Shift­ing Load to Ex­plicit Reasoning

Karma Bub­ble Fix (Grease­mon­key script)

Coun­ter­fac­tual Calcu­la­tion and Ob­ser­va­tional Knowledge