I noticed two separate predictions on manifold.markets related to Xi and Xi & Putin remaining at the top of their governments.
Xi and Putin at 93% and Xi at 95%.
What’s interesting, and I wonder if it makes sense, is that together these suggest people think Putin is more secure in his future than Xi.
Curious about other’s take on this.
I suspect you shouldn’t attribute much precision to Manifold, especially for things under 10% or so (or over 90%, same thing). Play-money and thinly traded questions make for a pretty weak consensus.
[Question] Interesting predictions on manifold.markets
I noticed two separate predictions on manifold.markets related to Xi and Xi & Putin remaining at the top of their governments.
Xi and Putin at 93% and Xi at 95%.
What’s interesting, and I wonder if it makes sense, is that together these suggest people think Putin is more secure in his future than Xi.
Curious about other’s take on this.
I suspect you shouldn’t attribute much precision to Manifold, especially for things under 10% or so (or over 90%, same thing). Play-money and thinly traded questions make for a pretty weak consensus.