My bar for a normal upvote is pretty low. Sometimes I even upvote somewhat low quality posts from new authors if I think they actually tried + seems like they could get better with some encouragement.
Strong upvote is for a post that hits most of: useful, interesting, well written, credible and surprising.
I wanted to write a post on this topic for a while, but couldn’t find the time. I’m glad I got to do the talk instead, since that helped me with narrowing down the scope.
I have more thoughts I can type up, if people are interested.
But getting the timing [on buying options] right seems tricky to me.
Decide on how much to spend per month and just buy longest available options. (I think the payout for this gets progressively better the closer you think we are to singularity.)
I’d consider adding exposure to specific company candidates most likely to participate / benefit from AGI, namely: Google, Microsoft, IBM, Amazon, etc…
Also, since you’re betting on a pretty drastic outcome, which is very likely not priced in correctly into the markets*, you should consider buying options instead of stocks. The cost to you is much cheaper, it’s easier to get more leverage, and they payout is much bigger for the extreme cases (in your favor).
* I gave a talk that touches on this point recently. The transcript should be up in the next few weeks.
No the SSC article is about how you should pay attention to the distribution of aliens in different universes, and that in most of them you won’t find any, while the mean can still be pretty high.
Do you find the solutions to problems like this manually or are there tools out there that can help or completely solve it?
Yeah I’d love to hear more about it. Anything you can share. And that could be a good material for a post too,
Wow, that’s very cool! This is actually the closest existing thing to Arbital I’ve heard about. I guess to Eliezer’s point, it does sound like they built this system in one go, without doing much of MVP-kind of iteration. But also… damn! From the sound of it, there are a lot of complicated components, and a lot of manual work that went into the whole thing. If those are the minimum requirements to build something like that, then I’m not sure we ever had a chance.
But the good news is: if this really works, then I think Arbital is totally doable and would be just the online version of this. The remaining difficult part would be monetization, but in retrospect it’s quite possible Arbital should have been a non-profit.
Are you doing homeschooling? How is that going? I’m just very curious because I’m thinking about it for my children too. What is forest school?
I feel like the obvious answer here is to look at the underlying intention.
This clip (from The Office) reminds me of when people suggest various patches to AI after it violates some safety concern / fails an experiment.
I have a one month old baby girl. I think the most important skill I can teach her is how to learn. There’s of course a bunch of sub-skills there: beginner’s mindset, paying attention, research, asking for help, checking, etc....
As you might imagine it’s a personal thing that does not translate very well. I do want to share it with people but I have not yet thought of a way to do it .. correctly.
Honestly it’s the hardest thing I’ve ever had to do. One month in and it’s getting a bit easier. She sleeps about 2-3 hours at a time.
I was walking along the same line of thought about 10 years ago. And a year ago it finally led me to a very very interesting update. Happy adventuring!
It’s a good question, and this scenario is something I’ve been thinking about as well. I don’t have a good answer. One obvious consideration is how easy is it to travel. By car you can go to Mexico or Canada. Otherwise you need to fly or take a boat.
I’m now a father of a 3 weeks old girl. So your parenting posts are extra useful and appreciated!
Would you / when would you recommend Brian Skyrms’s Signals: Evolution, Learning, and Information?
I was learning a bit of piano last year too, and found it very motivational to try to write my own songs. Even as a completely beginner and basically through pure trial and error, it was very fun. Then when I learned bits of theory it was nice to view my songs through that lens and see what resonated. (E.g. “ah that’s why this key sounds nice here: because it’s following the major scale I’m in”)
Oh, and I strongly second the “play the songs you want” approach. It’s so much more fun than trying to learn what you “should”.