Rank: #10 out of 4859 in peer accuracy at Metaculus for the time period of 2016-2020.
ChristianKl
Karma: 35,864
But this solution should not be appealing to anyone who wants to use the cryptocurrency even if a cryptocurrency is better funded without much mining (of course, if mining is replaced with another consensus mechanism after all the coins have been created, then this objection does not stand). After all, Satoshi Nakamoto did not fund Bitcoin by selling bitcoins. There are other ways to fund a cryptocurrency project without alternate consensus mechanisms.
I don’t understand why that would be an argument against just using proof of stake. Proof of stake has a bunch of different benefits. It solves the energy problem.
It also increases the amount of writes that the blockchain can do per minute which is very important for usability.
How about reading the post to which I’m replying? It quite explicitly defines bad faith in a way that not about “conscious intent to deceive”.
If you look at the YIMBY example that Anna laid out, cities policies are not under direct control of citizens, yet Anna found some points that relate to what people can actually do.
If it seems like you don’t have any control over something you want to change it makes sense to think of a theory of changes according to which you have control.
Right now, one issue seems to be that most people don’t really have it as part of their world view that there’s a good change of human extinction via AI. You could build a heuristic around, being open about the fact that there’s a good chance of human extinction via AI with everyone you meet.
There are probably also many other heuristics you could think of about what people should do.
For whom would you recommend getting additional doses of the Covid vaccine right now?
The scenarios are either that Tyler Robinson is the perpetrator or that someone tried to set him up as a patsy.
In an age of no-click remote exploits for phones, it’s easy for someone with nation state capability to fake the text messages and there is plenty of the discussion online that they are looking fake. I think it’s debatable whether the text messages are stronger evidence for Tyler as perpetrator or patsy.
The rifle being found in the woods near the shooting is consistent with both versions.
confession
It’s a hand-written document that could also have been faked if someone tried to setup Tyler as a patsy. The same goes for the discord message.
convinced many civilians, including Robinson’s own father and his boyfriend to lie
We don’t have on the record statements from Tyler’s father. We have statements from the police that suggests that the father thought Tyler is guilty. There are statements from Candace Owens that she contacted Tyler’s parents and that the position of his parents is that Tyler is innocent.
The official position is that the boyfriend (Lance Twiggs) has no prior knowledge of the killing. To the extend that he knows anything about it, it’s that he received text messages. There’s also no on-the-record statement from Lance that Tyler is guilty and it seems people who want to interview him can’t reach him.
The TPUSA position seems pretty weird to me. Their [spokesperson Andrew Kolvet is essentially saying](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VzyGCRB4B8&t) that he privately asked some people in the Trump administration to look into Israel as a possible suspect for the killing. That they are glad, that Candence publishing messages put them into a situations where they could say so, because apparently beforehand they didn’t think they could be open about that.
They also seem to argue that it would be harder to convince a jury that Tyler is guilty if TPUSA would release more of the video material of what went on that day, and that’s why TPUSA doesn’t release more of the video of that day.
I somehow had a cached thought from looking at Metaculus statistics of myself in the past that my performance was more middle of the pack. Yesterday, I looked at the statistics again and it ranks me, Rank: #10 out of 4859 out of Time Period:2016 − 2020.
I’m not exactly sure how I got my impression in the past, maybe I was better at the more long running predictions? Or did Metaculus change something about how it calculates scores?
“Learned helplessness” is a quasi-popular-therapy word for this.
It’s a terms that means something else:Learned helplessness is a psychological state in which a person (or animal) stops trying to change their situation after repeated experiences of powerlessness, even when escape or improvement later becomes possible. The concept originated from experiments by Martin Seligman and Steven Maier in the late 1960s: dogs exposed to unavoidable shocks later failed to avoid shocks they could escape.
In the situation the OP talks about it’s possible to change the situation by signaling being in pain to other people and then getting help from those people or those people otherwise accepting behavior of the person to change the situation that they might not otherwise expect.
I’m not entirely sure how this relates to seeing this pattern in others. If they’re your friend, you typically take a two-pronged approach: help superficially and get them to address the root problem to the extent you’re aware of a root problem.
Who’s that “you”? There’s stereotypical situation where a wife tells her husband about one of her struggles and then the husband tries to superficially help which actually doesn’t lead anywhere.
I think a good default response is listening and holding space for a person that suffers. There are also higher skill options that involve not accepting the frame. If you want to understand more in that regard jimmy’s sequence is good.
I like geeking out over masks and there are a lot of options. I have a bunch of models, and if you’d like to come try them sometime (next EA Boston meetup on 10/26?) I’d be happy to show you what they’re like.
I think it would be great if you can gather some data about how many people prefer which of the options and publish it.
Let’s say you have a leader of a company that uses AI a lot. They make some decisions based on the advice of the AI. People who don’t like those decisions say that the leader suffers from AI psychosis. That’s probably a scenario that plays out in many workplaces and government departments.
I’m a good prompt engineer
You are vibe coding
He has AI psychosis
A new major study finds that alcohol causes cancer, so government worked to bury the study. Time and time again we get presented with the fact that small amounts of drinking correlate with improved health in various ways, fooling many into thinking a little alcohol is healthy.
That seems a pretty uncritical way to frame the issue.
It turns out when you put a few people who believe that nutritional research with it’s correlational observational studies is crap into leadership positions, they don’t take that kind of nutritional research very seriously. MAHA was never about trusting the existing nutrition researchers, so this should not be surprising.
If you do report on the issue, I think it would make sense to focus on the actual merits of a policy choice instead of just “Trump administration doesn’t like the status quo that nutritional experts propagate—Nutritional experts are so worthy of respect that disrespecting them is bad”.
It’s visible in several frames as he walks away, otherwise it blends in with his legs.
What time stamps do you mean?
Which blob are you talking about?
While the moment right before he jumps might have a blob that’s consistent with a lot of different items, it seems to me like the time he walks, there’s no such blob as far as I (and GPT-5 Pro) seem tobe able to tell.It’s worth noting that the government document says that him carrying an object consistent with being a rifle is visible while he runs across the roof. The moment where he prepares his jump is not a moment he runs over the roof.
I have not told it anything about me not seeing the rifle. I did give the link to my chatlog and the questions I asked, and my follow-up questions. In a previous chat I just asked it fairly objective questions about what the official timeline is. Given the way GPT is set up, if anything that should bias it toward validating the official version.
I don’t think GPT-5 Pro’s capability is absolute proof, but it’s another set of eyes and GPT-5 likely know a bunch about how artifacts from low resolution in videos are supposed to look like that I don’t know.
If you create a system based on your own experimentation in a psychological field where you deviate from what’s normal and you crate a bunch of terms to have a handle on what you are doing, you should assume that those handles are unique to yourself.
There might be someone who does something similar than you, but they are likely not using the same vocabulary.
If you want to ground yourself, journaling frequently about the process is a good idea. It’s also good to expose yourself to real world feedback.
Fortunately, the internet allows people to talk to people from other countries. There are plenty of online discussions at places like Reddit where you can argue with a global audience.
Unless, you have special connections to influence your Canadian politics I would expect that using your energy to affect global public opinion seems more promising.
[Question] Did Tyler Robinson carry his rifle as claimed by the government?
Also, is your akrasia progress an example that came from reading this post, or something you picked up on elsewhere which happens to mirror this post? If the former, what made it click, exactly?
Understanding cause and effect generally isn’t easy. I think I have read half of the sequence in the week beforehand. One key aspect is agency. Reading it motivated my to exert agency, reading it motivated me to look at my procrastination more as a puzzle to be solved than something that’s given.
I think the structure of what was in my mind was. “If I do X, I will likely make some mistakes → I should not do X because X is high stakes” this then lead to procrastinating X. After looking at it more explicitly I got “If I do X, I will likely make some mistakes → It completely fine to make some mistakes, mistakes just would lead to me being asked to fix them → do X”. Kinesthetically, making that shift came with some relaxation.
The sequence suggest that if I do procrastinate, then there’s likely a reason why I’m procrastinating so applying the sequence to the problem was about looking for that reason. Beforehand the procrastination was puzzling because I did have a firm belief of “X has to happen before deadline X / procrastinating it is bad”.
You yourself gave the example where your wife had to tell you “Aren’t you saying you can help other people with problems like this?” to actually apply the concepts when it matters. Michael Smith who created the CFAR curriculum in the early days once told me that the key aspect of what the 4-day CFAR workshop is about is to put people in an environment where they actually feel the agency to make changes. From that perspective, just putting a book with the workshop topics online wouldn’t do what the CFAR workshop is about.
In the introduction to your sequence you write “This sequence comprises nineteen posts, totaling approximately 70,000 words. If you want to test the water and verify that there’s real insights to be gained, try your hand at the challenges, then check the solutions.” I would hope that your goal isn’t just insights but people actually putting ideas into practice.
Long before I actually really applied NLP and hypnosis there was a time where I was reading a lot of the relevant online discussions. The first time I was actually applying something was when I was emotionally hurting because I had a crush on a girl. In the same token, it might be that someone with chronic pain feels like they need to actually apply your sequence when the time comes when they don’t have another choice.
It would be better if the sequence would succeed in people having a clear idea of how they could actually apply the concepts to their lives and then doing that.
Grammarly has https://www.grammarly.com/authorship if you want to prove that you wrote something.
I don’t think patent laws are the key difference other property rights are more important.
Gutenberg was living in a free city and was able to take a loan to start a startup with 15-25 employees on the promise of an unproven technology without any patent laws protecting him. Merchants were strong enough at the time so that idea of creating a startup with the main motivation of financial return was viable.
Chinese rulers could just take whatever they wanted from merchants, so merchants were less powerful and did not make similar capital investments. When Europeans sailed across the oceans, they did it because the ability to make a profit from trade. When Chinese did it, they wanted to bring home gifts to the emperor.
The key difference is that European merchants could make very expensive capital investments that then produced returns and reinvest those returns to produce even more value.
From the perspective of thinking that Tyler is innocent it makes a lot of sense to encourage him to turn himself in. It makes it less likely that he would get shoot during the arrest and also makes it less likely that someone else can shoot him in retaliation for allegedly shooting Charlie. He shouldn’t have any expectations of permanently being able to escape a manhunt either.
Do you think that’s what a lawyer would advise him to do as the most effective way to free his son? I doubt that’s the case. Standard legal advice is to not to talk to the media.