This, again, seems plausible if the payoff is made sufficiently small.
How do you make the payoff small?
This is actually very similar to traditional Dutch-book arguments, which treat the bets as totally independent of everything.
Isn’t your Dutch-book argument more recursive than standard ones? Your contract only pays out if you act, so the value of the dutch book causally depends on the action you choose.
I disagree, I don’t think it’s a simple binary thing. I don’t think Dutch book arguments in general never apply to recursive things, but it’s more just that the recursion needs to be modelled in some way, and since your OP didn’t do that, I ended up finding the argument confusing.
I don’t think your argument goes through for the imp, since it never needs to decide its action, and therefore the second part of selling the contract back never comes up?
Hmm, on further reflection, I had an effect in mind which doesn’t necessarily break your argument, but which increases the degree to which other counterarguments such as AlexMennen’s break your argument. This effect isn’t necessarily solved by multiplying the contract payoff (since decisions aren’t necessarily continuous as a function of utilities), but it may under many circumstances be approximately solved by it. So maybe it doesn’t matter so much, at least until AlexMennen’s points are addressed so I can see where it fits in with that.