Building an Epistemic Status Tracker
Based on my experiences in the rationalist community as well as the work of Tetlock and others in superforecasting, I was inspired to build something I’ve been wanting for a long time: an epistemic status tracker.
In its simplest form, it’s a tool for making predictions, logging Bayesian updates, and analyzing your forecasting abilities.
While Metaculus and other prediction markets are great for world events, making predictions about more obscure events is also key to developing intuition—I’ve resorted to logging these in my journal (in a format similar to Scott Alexander’s), but this was always an imperfect solution.
Below are some sketches for the most basic version of the mobile app:
Of course, this is a personal, not-for-profit project that I’ll be open-sourcing.
I’ve thought about including social features (e.g., friends can take the over or under on your predictions) and analytics (particularly the classic calibration chart).
Most of all, I’m hoping to hear feedback from other community members: what would you want to see included?