ozziegooen

Karma: 4,302

I’m currently researching forecasting and epistemics as part of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.

Information-Dense Conference Badges

ozziegooen13 Jun 2025 17:52 UTC

28 points

4 comments4 min readLW link

(ozziegooen.substack.com)

Nuanced Models for the Influence of Information

ozziegooen10 Apr 2025 18:28 UTC

8 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

6 (Potential) Misconceptions about AI Intellectuals

ozziegooen14 Feb 2025 23:51 UTC

18 points

11 comments12 min readLW link

$300 Fermi Model Competition

ozziegooen3 Feb 2025 19:47 UTC

16 points

18 comments2 min readLW link

AI for Resolving Forecasting Questions: An Early Exploration

ozziegooen16 Jan 2025 21:41 UTC

10 points

2 comments9 min readLW link

Introducing Squiggle AI

ozziegooen3 Jan 2025 17:53 UTC

92 points

15 comments8 min readLW link

Enhancing Mathematical Modeling with LLMs: Goals, Challenges, and Evaluations

ozziegooen28 Oct 2024 21:44 UTC

7 points

0 comments15 min readLW link

My Current Claims and Cruxes on LLM Forecasting & Epistemics

ozziegooen26 Jun 2024 0:40 UTC

11 points

0 comments24 min readLW link

LLM-Secured Systems: A General-Purpose Tool For Structured Transparency

ozziegooen18 Jun 2024 0:21 UTC

10 points

1 comment21 min readLW link

“Full Automation” is a Slippery Metric

ozziegooen11 Jun 2024 19:56 UTC

30 points

1 comment2 min readLW link

A Case for Superhuman Governance, using AI

ozziegooen7 Jun 2024 0:10 UTC

30 points

0 comments10 min readLW link

Ideas for Next-Generation Writing Platforms, using LLMs

ozziegooen4 Jun 2024 18:40 UTC

26 points

4 comments2 min readLW link

Higher-Order Forecasts

ozziegooen22 May 2024 21:49 UTC

45 points

1 comment3 min readLW link

Scorable Functions: A Format for Algorithmic Forecasting

ozziegooen21 May 2024 4:14 UTC

29 points

0 comments8 min readLW link

What’s Going on With OpenAI’s Messaging?

ozziegooen21 May 2024 2:22 UTC

191 points

13 comments3 min readLW link

Distinctions when Discussing Utility Functions

ozziegooen9 Mar 2024 20:14 UTC

24 points

7 comments8 min readLW link

Using Points to Rate Different Kinds of Evidence

ozziegooen25 Aug 2023 20:11 UTC

18 points

3 comments6 min readLW link

(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Announcing Squiggle Hub

ozziegooen and Slava Matyukhin

5 Aug 2023 1:00 UTC

49 points

4 comments5 min readLW link

(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Relative Value Functions: A Flexible New Format for Value Estimation

ozziegooen18 May 2023 16:39 UTC

20 points

0 comments16 min readLW link

Thinking of Convenience as an Economic Term

ozziegooen7 May 2023 1:21 UTC

6 points

0 comments12 min readLW link

(forum.effectivealtruism.org)