Probably really bad, actually. The first thing that comes to mind here is the hygiene hypothesis—preventing kids from getting low-strength diseases as children when their immune systems are “being trained” to fight it off is likely going to cause issues in the future, and to solve a relatively small problem anyways (not many kids are hospitalized or die from other pathogens, and there isn’t any good evidence that the long-term effects of diseases on children cause fitness or intelligence loss in the general population). Not to mention, masks are a major cost. Would you ask adults to wear masks in the workplace permanently? Obviously you wouldn’t because that would cause riots. Requiring masks in schools for essentially tiny risks is significantly more overbearing and inconveniencing than, for example, requiring seatbelts, and yet it would likely save far fewer lives in the long run.
So forcing kids to mask permanently has:
Relatively tiny short-term effects, because not that many kids are dying of infectious diseases anyways;
Unknown long-term effects, because we really have no idea which way the fitness advantage is going and it may well be that minor infectious diseases as children are a positive thing;
An inconvenience ranging from minor to major for literally 56.4 million public and private school students, for 6-8 hours a day, or something like 143 billion person-hours per year.
Yeah, I think that that’s a good point about the one-dimensionality of any unit of measure used to assess risk. It might be possible to effectively start measuring in quality-adjusted life minutes or hours, but that quite quickly becomes a massive headache to calculate, even if it’s more accurate to the actual impact on people. I think that using a unit like the mortmile is a good way to effectively make back-of-the-envelope calculations to assess the degree of risk and quickly understand just how risky something is, especially when differences are measured in orders of magnitude (as they usually are).
Where are you getting a billion to 1 odds for the options bet payoff of the S&P going down 30% in the next year? Because if that’s true, I’d invest a thousand dollars in that and have a solid chance at becoming a trillionaire.
It’s somewhat active, but games take a week or so to begin after signups. Player level is definitely variable.
How do you end up assessing which players are easily manipulated, and how do you “pocket” them without other skilled players catching on to what you’re doing?
How strongly are anti-vaxxers incentivised to create fake vaccine passports, anyways? There’s a certain aspect that you mentioned—accepting the solemnity of the ritual requires that one submits to the rules, that they agree that they need to show a vaccine card to enter restaurants. Anti-vaxxers by and large either fundamentally object to the vaccine and are proud of that fact, or they are still hesitant to get the vaccine because they’re scared of it/think they don’t need it/it’s too much of an inconvenience/whatever else. For the first group, showing a fake vaccine card shows submission and acceptance to vaccination. To the second, obtaining a vaccine card when free vaccines are available basically everywhere takes both a measure of effort and willingness to blatantly lie that doesn’t seem particularly common amongst a population. Thus, I think that at the very least, requiring vaccines to do something will cause large decreases in the number of unvaccinated people doing that thing. I also believe that requiring vaccines to access large and growing parts of everyday life will directly increase the number of vaccinated people, although admittedly I am less confident in this assertion.