[Question] Testing and contact tracing impact assessment model?

What is a good model for assessing the effect of testing and contact tracing on R0?

I’m imagining it would have parameters perhaps like:

  • testing frequency

  • testing result delay

  • time

  • viral load (varies with time)

  • testing false negatives (probably varies with viral load)

  • path through environment (varies with viral load—i.e. if very sick they self isolate)

  • number of people who intersect that path (perhaps weighted by distance and duration)

  • emission filtration (aka masks)

  • reception filtration (aka masks)

  • percentage of the population tested on a regular frequency (or more complex arrangements if you wish to build that in)

  • percentage of people who go into isolation if they test positive or are requested to do so as a precautionary measure because of the contact tracing conclusions

  • contact tracing density—maybe only 50% of the population is part of the network

  • how deep in the contact tracing web it is recommended to self isolate (perhaps varying with testing frequency because it spreads in time)

  • the growth rate in time (which depends on a lot of the parameters above)

  • some sums or integrals over time and when the testing occurred

  • something something default parameters (some of which can be determined by the original R0 and doubling time of covid-19)

  • something something initial conditions

  • maybe including the percentage of the population already infected or recovered

  • maybe something something pooled tests or randomized population testing

  • maybe something something contact graph structure

  • if very ambitious adding things like packages or perhaps other animals that may be able to catch and transmit it

Ideally it would be able to answer questions like: How much does it decrease R0 if you test 90% of people every 10 days with a false negative rate of 15%, an isolation compliance rate of 85%, a contact tracing web that is 50% dense, and a proactive quarantine over the contact tracing web that is two contacts deep?

No answers.