[Question] Testing and contact tracing impact assessment model?

What is a good model for as­sess­ing the effect of test­ing and con­tact trac­ing on R0?

I’m imag­in­ing it would have pa­ram­e­ters per­haps like:

  • test­ing frequency

  • test­ing re­sult delay

  • time

  • viral load (varies with time)

  • test­ing false nega­tives (prob­a­bly varies with viral load)

  • path through en­vi­ron­ment (varies with viral load—i.e. if very sick they self iso­late)

  • num­ber of peo­ple who in­ter­sect that path (per­haps weighted by dis­tance and du­ra­tion)

  • emis­sion fil­tra­tion (aka masks)

  • re­cep­tion fil­tra­tion (aka masks)

  • per­centage of the pop­u­la­tion tested on a reg­u­lar fre­quency (or more com­plex ar­range­ments if you wish to build that in)

  • per­centage of peo­ple who go into iso­la­tion if they test pos­i­tive or are re­quested to do so as a pre­cau­tion­ary mea­sure be­cause of the con­tact trac­ing conclusions

  • con­tact trac­ing den­sity—maybe only 50% of the pop­u­la­tion is part of the network

  • how deep in the con­tact trac­ing web it is recom­mended to self iso­late (per­haps vary­ing with test­ing fre­quency be­cause it spreads in time)

  • the growth rate in time (which de­pends on a lot of the pa­ram­e­ters above)

  • some sums or in­te­grals over time and when the test­ing occurred

  • some­thing some­thing de­fault pa­ram­e­ters (some of which can be de­ter­mined by the origi­nal R0 and dou­bling time of covid-19)

  • some­thing some­thing ini­tial conditions

  • maybe in­clud­ing the per­centage of the pop­u­la­tion already in­fected or recovered

  • maybe some­thing some­thing pooled tests or ran­dom­ized pop­u­la­tion testing

  • maybe some­thing some­thing con­tact graph structure

  • if very am­bi­tious adding things like pack­ages or per­haps other an­i­mals that may be able to catch and trans­mit it


Ideally it would be able to an­swer ques­tions like: How much does it de­crease R0 if you test 90% of peo­ple ev­ery 10 days with a false nega­tive rate of 15%, an iso­la­tion com­pli­ance rate of 85%, a con­tact trac­ing web that is 50% dense, and a proac­tive quaran­tine over the con­tact trac­ing web that is two con­tacts deep?

No answers.