Hey there~ I’m Austin, currently building https://manifold.markets. Always happy to meet LessWrong people; reach out at akrolsmir@gmail.com, or find a time on https://calendly.com/austinchen/manifold !
Austin Chen
Karma: 775
Prediction markets meetup/coworking (hosted by Manifold Markets)
Inositol, I believe: https://www.facebook.com/100000020495165/posts/4855425464468089/?app=fbl
I’ve been following the SMTM hypothesis with great interest; don’t have much to add on a technical level, but I’m happy to pay a $200 bounty in M$ to Natália in recognition of her excellent writeup here. Also—happy to match (in M$) any of the bounties that she outlined!
San Jose has The Tech Interactive (formerly The Tech Museum of Innovation) located in the downtown. I remember going often as a kid, and being enthralled by the interactions and exhibits. One of the best is located outside, for free: a 2-story tall Rube Goldberg machine that shuffles billiards balls through various contraptions. Absolutely mesmerizing.
I’d have more hope—not significant hope, but more hope—in separating the concerns of (a) credibly promising to pay big money retrospectively for good work to anyone who produces it, and (b) venturing prospective payments to somebody who is predicted to maybe produce good work later.
I desperately want to make this ecosystem exist, either as part of Manifold Markets, or separately. Some people call it “impact certificates” or “retroactive public goods funding”; I call it “equity for public goods”, or “Manifund” in the specific case.
If anyone is interested in:
a) Being a retroactive funder for good work (aka bounties, prizes)
b) Getting funding through this kind of mechanism (aka income share agreements, angel investment)
c) Working on this project full time (full-stack web dev, ops, community management)
Please get in touch! Reply here, or message austin@manifold.markets~
Thanks again Elizabeth for pushing forward this initiative; Slime Mold Time Mold’s obesity hypothesis has been one of the most interesting things I’ve come across in the last couple years, and I’m glad to see citizen research efforts springing up to pursue it~
The credit for combining the data set really goes to Oliver S and Josh C; I mostly just posted the bounty haha:
I’m biased towards all the prediction market ones, naturally haha. In case you wanted to get a head start on manipulating markets for fun & profit:
I like this a lot! I am also the kind of person to use a new tab death clock, though your post inspired me to update it to my own AI timeline (~10 years).
I briefly experimented with using New Tab Redirect to set your site as my new tab page, but I think it takes a smidgen longer to load haha (it needs to fetch the Metaculus API or something?)
Sorry about that—had some configuration issues. It should work now!
Thanks! I tried splitting into smaller sections (half the size) so that we don’t have this issue as much; not sure what other solutions look like.
Yeah probably a stale caching layer, what fic were you reading? Glowflow doesn’t read from an epub, it’s reading html from the site itself.
Lemme try rebooting to see if that refreshes. That’s obviously not sustainable… I didn’t expect people to actually use it for a live, updating fic lol.
Edit: added a “Clear cache” button, hope that solves it!
Text centering should now be live!
dark mode seems to have stopped working
Hm, do you have “dark mode” toggled on the sidebar? (There’s two settings unfortunately due to how Streamlit is set up):
The outer box doesn’t widen together with the text and background, and the text doesn’t stay centered
Yeah unfortunately this is mostly working-as-implemented. The box size isn’t a thing I can change; “Wide Mode” lets it the box be big, otherwise it’s small.
Text centering might be possible if you’re in “Wide Mode”—I’ll look into that.
Done! Thanks for the feedback. Hoping 2000px is plenty but it’s easy to increase lol.
(Having too many options is sometimes a symptom of bad UX design, but it seems reasonable for a web reader to support these all of these.)
Hrm, I think I could code in a way to specify the height of the box… lemme look into it.
Thanks for all your suggestions, btw!
I hope so! I myself bounced off of Mad Investor Chaos twice before because the formatting was too hard for me to read… but after implementing this reader, spent 2 hours last night reading through it.
Thanks so much for writing this Glowfic!
Your wish is my command—dark mode added!
I liked how the epub strips out unnecessary UI from the glowfic site, but downloading and moving epubs around is a pain...
So I built a web reader on top of this code! Check it out here: https://share.streamlit.io/akrolsmir/glowflow/main
It’ll work for any Glowfic post actually, eg https://share.streamlit.io/akrolsmir/glowflow/main?post=5111 Would probably be simple to add a download button to get the epub file; source code here.
I’ve been thinking for a while that maybe forecasting should have its own LessWrong instance, as a place to discuss and post essays (the way EA Forum and AI Alignment have their own instances); curious to get your thoughts on whether this would improve the forecasting scene by having a shared place to meet, or detract by making it harder for newcomers to hear about forecasting?
I really, really wish crossposting and crosslinking was easier between different ForumMagnum instances...
Rob Wiblin from 80k asks: