What do you say about the behavior of those of us who had COVID 6 months ago or after?
Not necessarily. You can have people believe that EMH works in US equities or US Treasuries but not say, US corps.
But most people in finance that I encountered throughout my career believed that EMH did not worked in any market.
I studied and worked in finance and I don’t think I ever met someone who truly believed that the EMH was the absolute truth.
Thank you for your response!
I have made some changes to the original post regarding your nitpicks. I agree with them. I also appreciate your in depth breakdown of all of my sections, I think the community here will appreciate your detail follow up / counters to my post. I am trying to think of a way to edit my post so that it is more clear that I use USTs and risk free rate interchangeably.
Solid primer. It is hard to really simplify this subject but I think you did a decent job.
I remember how much it irritated my advanced investment finance professors that variance and volatility were used interchangeably. But even in the whitepaper the CBOE uses the term volatility. Considering the simplistic nature of the post, I will add a footnote to make the definition more clear. Thank you.
Regarding prediction markets, have you seen this piece by Vitalik?https://vitalik.ca/general/2021/02/18/election.html
I came in here to say leverage. There are options outside of margin lending that are interesting to explore, such as:
Investment Loan (Although the rate is similar to that of a margin loan)
Home Equity Line of Credit (Cheaper than the above)
Borrowing to re-investing and pledging your assets as collateral has been used for decades by wealthy investors to increase their return.
I use these products:
Yeah I didn’t write about the gamma squeeze because I wanted to keep the length of the post short. But you bring up an excellent point.
I agree with you, but that goes beyond the scope of my intention when writing this post. This post was meant to be as elementary as possible.
I saw it and sent it to my Canadian friends. They really appreciated your update.
While I concur with your conclusion, I fear that if mainstream media presents the results like you did in this post, it will create a perverse incentive. I posted the UK press release in my social media and immediately folks started saying that they should try to catch it in order to get immunity.
Is it possible to make this a standalone post? This is fantastic information.
Agreed on both comments. Hopefully the pre-print is more clear
Interesting report on reinfections came out today.
“PHE scientists working on the study have concluded naturally acquired immunity as a result of past infections provide 83% protection against reinfection, compared to people who have not had the disease before. This appears to last at least for 5 months from first becoming sick.”