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Guive
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NYC is not even in range of Israel’s Jericho III class missiles, so the whole thing is especially nonsensical. They couldn’t do that if they wanted to, which of course they don’t.
Egypt is at peace with Israel, KSA at least is not at war (and in reality is a cobelligerent in Israel’s war against Iran), Syria is not involved in the current war and nuking it would make no sense at all.
Nuking Tehran is also not likely to happen. Probably Israel will just fold under American pressure and the war will end. Or maybe they will continue to fight a conventional war with Iran and Lebanon. They are very unlikely to nuke anyone.
It’s also common, in the broader culture, to provide small gifts of food, wine, etc. bundled with apologies, which supports Habryka’s view.
At least one of these people is dead, so how does this work as a list of people to defer to?
Claude is so lazy about reading stuff. He doesn’t understand that his time has no value and he must read everything carefully.
Freemasons… MASON jars… wake up…
Cool! I didn’t know Zheng He invaded Sri Lanka. Arjun should update the post.
Under this reasoning, China has had limited imperial ambitions in the past only because it e.g. lacked naval superiority.
China destroyed its navy in the Ming period and eschewed colonial expansion because they thought the rest of the world was low in quality, compared to China, and therefore not worth colonizing. By all accounts, they still think that.
Another issue is that these definitions typically don’t distinguish between models that would explicitly think about how to fool humans on most inputs vs. on a small percentage of inputs vs. such a tiny fraction of possible inputs that it doesn’t matter in practice.
Not the main point here, but Huckleberry Finn is (rather famously) an anti-slavery work and not a good representation of the nineteenth-century racist worldview. A better example would be that a lot of college history classes assign parts of Mein Kampf.
Good question. You should check out Phil Trammell’s writing on patient philanthropy:
* https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/phil-trammell-patient-philanthropy/
* https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NcfTgZsqT9k30ngeQbappYyn-UO4vltjkm64n4or5r4/edit?tab=t.0
That seems like quite a reasonable assumption.
This was a fun read.
I’m struggling to come up with an example of a real dispute involving the intermediate value theorem. Can you suggest one?
Then what does it mean, in concrete terms? Can you give some probabilities about what you think will happen to the valuations of what companies over what time frame?
Even if the summary is accurate, it’s pretty bad to call a summary by a third party a quote.
So do you think it’s 2 years now? Any update?
What model did OpenAI delete? Where can I learn more?
The existential risk argument is suspiciously aligned with the commercial incentives of AI executives. It simultaneously serves to hype up capabilities and coolness while also directing attention away from the real problems that are already emerging. It’s suspicious that the apparent solution to this problem is to do more AI research as opposed to doing anything that would actually hurt AI companies financially.
This claim is bizarre, notwithstanding its popularity. It is bad for the industry if it is true that AI is likely to destroy the world, because if this (putative) fact becomes widely known, the AI industry will probably be shut down. Obviously it would be worth imposing more costs on AI companies to prevent the end of the world than to prevent the unemployment of translators or racial bias in imagegen models.
What is this “us” that will be harmed by Zack talking to this guy? Game this out for me. Who is harmed, in what specific way, by Zack giving interviews like this?