Posting this here for cross-reference:
If I Can’t Have Me, No One Can (a)
[Content warning: a suicide note that deals heavily with sexual violence]
At some point I’d like to interweave the simulacra-levels framework with the discussion of motivations in this post: Altruistic action is dispassionate
They feel related.
StatNews piece on the IHME model: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/
The adversarial collaboration talks a bit about this.
Pigs: about 100. Conditions for pigs are very bad, though I still think humans matter a lot more.
Very surprised by your ratios here.
cf. the “Is eating meat a net harm?” adversarial collaboration on Slate Star Codex. Look at the surveys they ran as a benchmark.
Yes, I pointed out some of the limitations in the original link. Should still be included in a lit review though.
Seems like a good model for estimating total infections, from my quick look: https://observablehq.com/@danyx/estimating-sars-cov-2-infections
I haven’t poked its methodology.
Thanks, hadn’t seen that.
Also just saw this, which makes a lot of the same points: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2020/04/04/ihme-projections/
Gautret et al. 2020 and Chen et al. 2020 are studies of hydroxychloroquine efficacy.
I stumbled onto these during the course of my internet reading, would be great to see a proper lit review.
IHME published a dashboard with state-by-state projections of coronavirus peaks: http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
The accompanying FAQ is also interesting: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs
Which US federal agencies should receive more funding in response to coronavirus? Which should receive less?
As a continuation of Karma 2.0 we are working on a feature in which your avatar size can scale with your karma, such that users with the most karma can signal their superiority even better, and truly tower over their intellectual contemporaries.
Is the Chinese coronavirus data fake?
If so, what’s a good estimate of the actual number of Chinese cases & actual number of Chinese deaths?
I think that’s right.
I looked into this a bit with a friend who’s an MD, and it turns out that this paper isn’t very good.
Study not randomized, groups not balanced by disease severity, several treatment-group patients excluded from the data after trial started because they got worse (some went to ICU; one died).
From p. 10 of the paper:
We enrolled 36 out of 42 patients meeting the inclusion criteria in this study that had at least six days of follow-up at the time of the present analysis. A total of 26 patients received hydroxychloroquine and 16 were control patients.
Six hydroxychloroquine-treated patients were lost in follow-up during the survey because of early cessation of treatment. Reasons are as follows: three patients were transferred to intensive care unit, including one transferred on day2 post-inclusion who was PCR-positive on day1, one transferred on day3 post-inclusion who was PCR-positive on days1-2 and one transferred on day4 post-inclusion who was PCR-positive on day1 and day3; one patient died on day3 post inclusion and was PCR-negative on day2; one patient decided to leave the hospital on day3 post-inclusion and was PCR-negative on days1-2; finally, one patient stopped the treatment on day3 post-inclusion because of nausea and was PCR-positive on days1-2-3.
The results presented here are therefore those of 36 patients (20 hydroxychloroquine-treated patients and 16 control patients). None of the control patients was lost in follow-up.
Does hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin effectively treat COVID-19?
See Gautret et al. 2020, a small trial of this (not randomized) that found a big effect.
Economists mostly disagree with present market sentiment, which could be the basis for a trade: http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/policy-for-the-covid-19-crisis/
… plus rising nominal prices means seeking returns is the main motivation, not avoiding risk.
Why do you think nominal prices will keep rising?
Isn’t it also plausible that the impact of the virus is deflationary? (Increased demand for USD as a store of value exceeds the impact of the Fed printing money, etc)