It looks like glucosamine may help reduce all-cause mortality (UK Biobank study), so I might start taking that as well.
ioannes
Karma: 756
It’s a big topic and I don’t have a great articulation for it yet.
Some scattered points:
Generally higher model uncertainty than I used to have
Idealism now seems as plausible as materialism
Panpsychism seems plausible / not-crazy, and consciousness matters a lot
The many-worlds interpretation seems plausible. If physics is many-worlds, we may not be able to ever escape from ethical parochialism
Not about metaphysics, but I’ve been growing less confused about my motivations such that ethical considerations no longer feel as fraught. (I used to identify my ethics with my view of my self-worth such that acting ethically seemed super important)
fwiw I’ve noticed that my feelings about x-risk have started to loosen recently, though it’s probably because some of my metaphysics are shifting
Yes! I’m also reminded of Romeo’s comment about rationality attracting “the walking wounded” on a similar post from a couple years back.
I think rationality is doing pretty good, all things considered, though I definitely resonate with Applied Divinity Studies’ viewpoint. Tsuyoku Naritai!
[Link] “Where are all the successful rationalists?”
In folksier terms, what’s being discussed is rationalists’ often-strange relationship to common courtesy (i.e. Lindy social dynamics).
Reminds me a bit of this good thread by Qiaochu.
NXIVM had much recruiting success by training people on techniques that actually helped them quickly solve their present problems.
(NXIVM is a deeply problematic organization which contained a secret cult and in many ways should not be emulated.)
+1 to Ann Arbor.
As a native Ann Arborite, I can vouch for its greatness.I’ve also heard hearsay about Madison, WI being good.
For me to prefer a rationalist community hub, it would have to have similar kinds of support. I’m imagining a circle of parents that takes turns watching ALL the kids. Or passes toys around in an exchange circle. There is also an issue where rationalists often have very particular ideas about child rearing, and they don’t all mesh. Even with people filling the child care role for each other, I think I’d strongly miss not having “elders” around.
Makes me think of this David Brooks essay, which includes a profile of the Temescal Commons in Oakland.
Agree with these points, though Seattle doesn’t seem very dynamic compared to the Bay, LA, NYC, or even Salt Lake. (It seems very normie, to use a pejorative.)
I actually feel like East Bay (Oakland and every place north of Oakland) is really pleasant:
Cost of living isn’t terrible except for rent, and it’s still possible to find good deals on rent, e.g. I’ve lived in North Oakland for 6 years and have only paid more than $1,000/month for one of those years (granted for the rest of the time I’ve been living in group houses or with a partner)
East Bay parks are amazing
Minimal social decay except for downtown Berkeley and parts of Oakland
Wonderful weather for ~10 months of the year (every season except for fire season)
Lots of interesting + diverse people, intellectual communities, and social life
What am I missing?
Got it, thanks for clarifying
For example, Kurzweil’s 1999 predictions of what 2009 would look like were mostly wrong, but if instead you pretend they are predictions about 2019 they are almost entirely correct.
This isn’t right.
See Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results – “So, did more time allow for more perspective or more ways to go wrong? Well, Kurzweil’s predictions for 2019 were considerably worse than those for 2009, with more than half strongly wrong”
Yeah, I’m roughly as excited about Microsoft as I am about Facebook or Apple.
I wonder how much of OpenAI they got for their $1B...
Investment idea: basket of tech stocks weighted towards AI
The biggest semiconductor equipment companies (symbols BRKS, LRCX, KLAC, and AMAT) look like decent investments, but not quite cheap enough that I’m willing to buy them.
What do you think of companies like Broadcom, NXP, Marvell, and MediaTek?
(I don’t quite know where these sit in the value chain in relation to the companies you quoted; I believe they’re focused more on chip design and mostly don’t do fabrication)
After looking into this a bit more, I now think holding these ETFs is a straightforward way to approximate the thesis:
SOXX
SOXL
FNGU
CIBR