Yeah, that’s fair. I think what’s going on is that I’m asking a compound question, and ‘overwhelmed hospitals but we don’t respond with severe restrictions’ would be a no, but also I didn’t update this enough. The 35->65 update directly should raise this and I should have been at 25-30.
Zvi
Karma: 19,897
I did not know such a feature existed, say more?
You can subscribe to the substack (thezvi.substack.com) or use my Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/thezvi) if you’d like to contribute.
Also considering turning on Twitter tips, which I think would have relatively low fees.
Yep.
Omicron Post #4
Vaccination right now is more important. Vaccination in February is less important...
I’d be very surprised if people trading in prediction markets then battling it out to steer the FDA wouldn’t be an improvement over current conditions, but I also think there’s a lot of zeroes before that’s something to consider.
At current pace you have 1-2 months before the peak, and the booster takes a week to work. There’s basically no chance as a non-prioritized person you’ll be able to get an Omicron booster in that time frame.
Things I instinctively observed slash that my model believes that I got while reading that seem relevant, not attempting to justify them at this time:
There is a core thing that Eliezer is trying to communicate. It’s not actually about timeline estimates, that’s an output of the thing. Its core message length is short, but all attempts to find short ways of expressing it, so far, have failed.
Mostly so have very long attempts to communicate it and its prerequisites, which to some extent at least includes the Sequences. Partial success in some cases, full success in almost none.
This post, and this whole series of posts, feels like its primary function is training data to use to produce an Inner Eliezer that has access to the core thing, or even better to know the core thing in a fully integrated way. And maybe a lot of Eliezer’s other communications is kind of also trying to be similar training data, no matter the superficial domain it is in or how deliberate that is.
The condescension is important information to help a reader figure out what is producing the outputs, and hiding it would make the task of ‘extract the key insights’ harder.
Similarly, the repetition of the same points is also potentially important information that points towards the core message.
That doesn’t mean all that isn’t super annoying to read and deal with, especially when he’s telling you in particular that you’re wrong. Cause it’s totally that.
There are those for whom this makes it easier to read, especially given it is very long, and I notice both effects.
My Inner Eliezer says that writing this post without the condescension, or making it shorter, would be much much more effort for Eliezer to write. To the extent such a thing can be written, someone else has to write that version. Also, it’s kind of text in several places.
The core message is what matters and the rest mostly doesn’t?
I am arrogant enough to think I have a non-zero chance that I know enough of the core thing and have enough skill that with enough work I could perhaps find an improved way to communicate it given the new training data, and I have the urge to try this impossible-level problem if I could find the time and focus (and help) to make a serious attempt.
I disagree that the derived statement is unreasonable. I also disagree that it’s obviously saying something other than what it literally says.
Covid 12/2: But Aside From That
Omicron Post #3
Covid Prediction Markets at Polymarket
FDA Votes on Molunpiravir
Nice. Working on getting more. Hopefully it will get more volume once it gets more eyes.
Fair. Presume 80% for it to become majority rather than fully take over, somewhat less to go full.
BTW I did take a bet on this for $100 at 50% odds in another comment thread (operationalized as Omicron bigger than delta by end of May.)
Remarkable degree of awareness there. I appreciate it.
Omicron Variant Post #2
Reasonable. In the realm of such bets we’re not that far apart. I’d take a bet at 50% (1:1) but there’s no value to you there. I’m in process of reading new sources.
66% by March 1 is very close to 70% eventually, and I noted my confidence level is low, but I will consider if I become more confident within the window. Thank you for the offer, in any case.
What is your fair? 50%? 30%?
My model is that ‘hospitals are at capacity and under stress, and turn you away a lot’ is pretty much baked in, but ‘this turns into a crisis where we have people dying in the corridors and emergency conditions imposed’ as a compound statement is a lot less likely. Still, I agree that 17% was too low, and I should have been more like 30%.