jmh

Karma: 1,618

jmh 25 May 2026 3:09 UTC
3 points
0
in reply to: Rattengift’s comment on: Taxing Small Cars To Improve MPG
Doesn’t the same general way work—at least for charging at a station. I suppose a similar approach could be used for home charging by requiring the hook-up to have some meter applied and then report consumption by the meter—or add the tax to the electric bill for collection.
But yes, it is a bit of a different setting for collecting tax revenues for electric vehicles. But might also just be one of the add-on fees public utilities already add to my bill to cover the infrastructure build and maintenance costs.

jmh 24 May 2026 12:46 UTC
−3 points
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in reply to: Radford Neal’s comment on: Probabilities are not the right concept
I was thinking in terms of what we’re thinking the numbers mean I suppose. Probabilities seem to imply some underlying fact of the population or process that we can (or are assumed to) know. The likelihood is more about putting numbers or weights on things in a way it’s consistent with what we observer. As you say, there is some proportionality between them.
Of course they are difference and it would not make much sense to just replace the label while leaving the underlying “thing” the same. But given the concerns about probability I wondered if a shift in thinking from p(x) (or p(x|B) ) to L(x) might help with some of the difficulties the OP sees.

jmh 24 May 2026 12:08 UTC
−5 points
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on: Probabilities are not the right concept
I wonder if changing the terminology from probability to likelihood would help a bit?

jmh 23 May 2026 0:19 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: Valdes’s comment on: Women should be able to open things
If the problem is purely grip strength then the observed results should be that when women try opening the jar their hand slip before the cap starts turning. Is that the case? Not sure myself.
For example, I suspect many more women moisturize their hands than men. That is going to change the adhesion of skin to cap producing the “grip” to turn the cap. (Here the analogy might be comparing tire compounds for long lasting tires and performance tires and cornering speeds of the same car on a test track.) What might happen when that is controlled for—assuming the view is correct?
Another thing no one has mentioned is hand size. I definitely notice a difference when opening jars of different sizes. Would be interesting to see if ratio of diameter of cap to span of hand is well correlated to ability to open a jar independent of some standardized measure of grip strength.

jmh 22 May 2026 1:53 UTC
5 points
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in reply to: DirectedEvolution’s comment on: AllAmericanBreakfast’s Shortform
Both have very recognizeable verbal tics. Gemini likes the word “exact,” like “this is the exact right blah blah blah.” Claude likes the words “genuine,” “honestly,” “worth,” “real.” They each have their own distinctive approaches to human diplomacy, trying to “gently” deliver critical feedback and so on.
I think you can add ChatGPT to that as well. I get that type of response frequently when posing some questions and generally when posing a follow-up question.

jmh 22 May 2026 1:31 UTC
4 points
1
in reply to: ChristianKl’s comment on: Women should be able to open things
To prevent food spoilage, companies that manufacture products not only want to prevent containers leaking or opening but want to prevent bacteria going into the products.
It’s actually a pretty old home production technique too, and I agree it has little to do with keeping the jar from accidentally opening or content spilling out. I suspect the vacuum itself is more by-product than intentional design.
Which seem to get to the core of the issue here. Is the situation really gender related or targeted? I don’t know if some of the comment about it being about pushing some pro-masculine conspiracy are really jokes or serious comment. Hopefully the former. I suspect the resulting challenges for many women, like the vacuum itself, is something of a by-product and may well be unavoidable if one wants to have the content stay good while stored.
I think the question here might come down to using the right tools, rather than suggesting the manufacture solve the problem.

jmh 22 May 2026 1:14 UTC
2 points
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on: Women should be able to open things
Just curious, as many comment seem to be focused on vacuum being the source the force required to open, is this about first time you open a jar or that or times where someone else has closed the jar and you then want it open?
Quick additional question, but data might be scarce, have you considered looking at the grip profiles for left and right handed people for open the standard jar? Hand position is different and I’m honestly unsure if the structure of the wrist is such that twist strength is symmetric.

jmh 22 May 2026 1:10 UTC
3 points
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in reply to: G Wood’s comment on: Women should be able to open things
And while it seems to be getting better (soft take here as I am not left-handed) but used to be the case that the world really punished left-handed people. If necessity is the mother of invention I somewhat wonder if that doesn’t explain part of the the (old) perception that left-handed people are smarter than others.

jmh 22 May 2026 1:06 UTC
2 points
2
in reply to: romeostevensit’s comment on: Women should be able to open things
In many cases you can also just hold the jar upside down and hit it with the heel of the palm of your other hand.
There are also band wrenches made specifically for opening jar which provide a nice level to increase the torque force when someone wants to open something with a twist off lid (not recommending this but you could probably use an oil filter band type wrench).

jmh 20 May 2026 3:17 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: JenniferRM’s comment on: A relatively brief explanation of Boltzmann Brains
Thanks.
If I think I’m a BB then I should not be very confident in 2+2=4 or that JenniferRM is connected to a human or even is an account on LW. All my memories and thinking (and quite likely any sensory input) is fake so disconnected from any external territory.
If I assume I’m simulated then it’s more complex.
I don’t think I am either, so I am quite comfortable with 2+2=4 and, since I think I can trust my senses, I can even verify that claim with my fingers and counting. These days I would have to question the JenniferRM is actually human and not some modern LLM that is fooling me a bit more. But, as you note, I do have some history to fall back on that precedes the more advanced LLM that can fool me and could be posting so still have a strong sense you’re not one. But, yes, your point stands, I would trust the math more than the account. But that is possible, for me, just because I don’t see myself as a BB or simulation.
As for the “we”, that was probably sloppy on my part. I tend to interpret claims of being a simulation to mean we’re all in one, not that the speaker considers they are (or might be) one. I should change that view.

jmh 19 May 2026 2:56 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: JenniferRM’s comment on: A relatively brief explanation of Boltzmann Brains
Just a slight point, maybe, but should we be equating Boltzmann brains with simulation cases? They seem much different to me, even if some of the problems for the specific observer/entity are common to both.
Curious about one other point as well. Could very much be my own ignorance and resulting confusion but it seems your position is that the math is real but we might not be. That seems to related to this AI answer to a prompt I made.
Prompt
With regards to Boltzmann Brains, did Boltzmann what is Boltzmann really assuming about the real universe and what it is made from—is this just about some observing entity in a universe with the actual structure and masses (all the elements and physical laws we current assume exist) or some equilibrium disordered state (whatever level or disorder is thought to exist)?
Part of the response included: “The concept of Cognitive Instability—why believing you are a Boltzmann Brain means you can’t trust your own math.”
That seems to raise questions about how real one can assume their math is if one starts from the position of “I’m a BB.” I am not entirely sure that is as reasonable for a simulation but that hangs on simulations and BBs being entirely different types of situations and settings.

jmh 18 May 2026 3:42 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: avturchin’s comment on: A relatively brief explanation of Boltzmann Brains
Is this a modern extension of Boltzmann? I thought the standard view was these BB are very temporary and do “die” fairly quickly (though I suppose “quickly” could be a rather long time in human terms when thinking in infinite time).
Edit: Perhaps that is answered in your other response but the link doesn’t seem to work for me.

jmh 18 May 2026 3:10 UTC
−1 points
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in reply to: EOC’s comment on: A relatively brief explanation of Boltzmann Brains
After a brief chat with one of the AI’s I had the impression that the main value of the BB was more about model/theory evaluation. Basically a theory that predicts a lot of the phenomenon should be questioned and probably “back to the drawing board” case.
A lot I don’t follow here but seems like the post might be challenging that, or perhaps some more simplified applications of that view.
But after the chats I actually wonder if that is the critical aspect rather than juts how we deal with infinities/really long time frames or how we think/define of equilibriums as the more critical areas of exploration.

jmh 16 May 2026 9:58 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: roha’s comment on: Models finding software vulnerabilities is not the primary source of cybersecurity risk
Would the INTEGRTY RTOS from Green Hill fit that bill?

jmh 16 May 2026 7:41 UTC
2 points
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on: Don’t be too Clever to Take Obvious Advice
I suspect that is a good suggestion and we all benefit keeping it in mind. But I do think it’s only part of the picture. Just as when someone tells us to get back in the saddle or have more faith in ourselves. Making the mental transition from whatever state (perhaps some form of denial or “over thinking/complicating” things versus just moving past) into that follow the cliche.
I suspect the big trick here is identifying why one needs to troubleshoot the computer problem rather than just rebooting, getting back up rather than thinking about why they are all dusty lying on the ground or whatever. But I agree that before one even gets to the “solution” one has to acknowledge the solution is a known one.
IDN, maybe some of it is about the need to be different or special or unique so we don’t want to accept that the simple, well knows approaches can possibly apply to “me and my situation”.

jmh 13 May 2026 1:41 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: Raphael Roche’s comment on: The Lies and Fallacies of the Buyer and Seller
I don’t think this has anything to do with business schools—business and marketing when I was in college years ago typically cast the sales and marketing more towards consumer intelligence gathering so the “persistent” sale staff would be doing much more asking about wants and needs, then pointing out how their product serves those wants and needs so well rather than the (perhaps not so stereotypical used car salesman) push to get you to sign the sales contract. But that’s a whole different topic I think.
I do get annoyed and sales people that are only about getting the sale and that don’t take “I am looking now, not buying” for an answer. And I think it’s a rather common response to be less polite when that first “No” seems to be completely ignored. But, I also try to remember I walked into the store on my own two feet with no gun at my head so should keep that in mind when reacting to someone just doing their job—even when I think they are doing a really poor job of it.
A bit of a tangent here, but why is everyone using the 1% chance of a future sale? If I’m going through all the effort to go somewhere to look firsthand at some product I’ve generally already made the decision that I will buy so 1% seems really low. Do many people just go “window shopping” for a lot of big ticket items (I’ve never got the hard sell when looking to by a cheap pen or sodas or notebook—or even a laptop or phone for that matter). That might explain the “don’t take No for an answer” dance any point to a fragility in a consumption driven socio-economic social model.

jmh 13 May 2026 1:21 UTC
2 points
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on: The Lies and Fallacies of the Buyer and Seller
I have to say I was put off by the first couple of paragraphs do cannot be sure if this whole post is about some market structure imperfection or just a rant about hard sell tactics. I think a better term is needed than sale as that is a pretty loaded word in some cases but very neutral and descriptive of a simple market exchange. One would be consistent with the 101 econ theory of perfect information while the other is not. But the 101 econ world of perfect information has never existed and I don’t thing any operates on that premise they are operating in such a world.
As for the starting lie, I simple tell the sales person I just looking now and will not buy today. If they want to spend some time explaining things to me and answering questions I might want to ask, that’s good. If they try pushing for a decision I’ll once more tell them I am not buying anything today. If they persist I’ll tell them to stop being rude and leave.
I suppose, not having read the full post but looking at the first couple of comments, part of the issue here has nothing to do with economics or market transactions/interaction but more about peoples sense of courtesy and recognition that they choose to enter a location where people have a job of interacting with the customers, often with income based on sales, and where the expectation is that customers are interested in buying products that are sold there. So when sales staff approach the customer expects some attempt to sell. So I see it more as a form of negotiation communications at something of a civil level. Is that really a problem?

jmh 11 May 2026 3:55 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: icely’s comment on: icely’s Shortform
I agree with Kaarel about envisioning something clearly that is very distant from what is current.
But I also wonder if there is not another issue here. Whose utopia are we talking about. While I doubt I could write out a complete utopian world for me I am pretty certain that many would take exception to it being a utopia because they see things differently. So unless one is talking about some private world of their own (or small number that agree with the structures) making a utopian setting is a big public choice problem. We cannot even solve getting good policies in many cases, reaching for utopian outcomes seems a stretch.

jmh 11 May 2026 3:38 UTC
2 points
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on: Please Be Serious
I do agree it is probably wise to avoid making a public appearance with some anonymous debating partner or interviewer who remains anonymous during the public event.
Personally I think his background (not even high school grad) and the outfit both display him as norm braking and original in thought. His accomplishments seem to support the view he is very intelligent (not some quack or cult thing) so formal credentials don’t matter for me, and the outfit doesn’t seem to undermine credibility (a bit of messenger versus message issue there I think).
Have not seen the debate (or seen transcripts) so not take on that aspect.

jmh 29 Apr 2026 3:00 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: ChristianKl’s comment on: Posts I don’t have time to write
Okay. That is something I didn’t know but fire codes are hardly the only standards that are generated via private organizations, but they all have to be implemented and enforced by governments. Without acceptance by the government with jurisdiction they are just words on paper.
But I don’t think that changes the claim that fire code is just one instances of a class and probably should not be singled out as something special unless it can be demonstrated as special. But one can look at the whole class and see similar problems of unintended consequences and special/inside interest incentives when trying to figure out if the over all results of any rule generation by some group is a new plus or negative. In fact I think knowing now that there are multiple layers between fire code design and implementation I have more concerns about labeling it as the root of all evil, seems more inflammatory than accurate.