Great info, thanks!

I note that this particular checklist results in an alarm bell which basically cannot go off until a pandemic is already well under way. Like, the “3 continents” item or the “medical supply shortages” or “quarantine of a city” or “front page news” are essentially hindsight indicators; by that point the pandemic has already reached significant scale. In hindsight, February 20 2020 was *very* late to start paying attention to covid.

That’s basically correct; the main immediate gain is that it makes it much easier to compute abstractions and compute using abstractions.

One additional piece is that it hints towards a probably-more-fundamental derivation of the theorems in which maximum entropy plays a more central role. The maximum entropy Telephone Theorem already does that, but the resampling + gKPD approach routes awkwardly through gKPD instead; there’s probably a nice way to do it directly via constrained maximization of entropy. That, in turn, would probably yield stronger and simpler theorems.