We need better prediction markets

I have 0 exposure to cryptocurrencies and I don’t work in that industry, but the recent news about FTX plummeting to the ground have left me thinking quite a bit.

It’s extremely surprising how a person can go from one day being considered a “genius” or a shrewd business man to being a world wide piece of shit, conman, idiot in some aspects and overall hated by everyone. With this hindsight, now, we can tell that everything that Bankman-Fried said was a lie… he never did tell the truth.

Plus the arrogance that comes from the deep insecurity of having a bad hand where the only choice is to double down every time until you get caught (he was giving product advice to Stripe CEO while alt-tabbing on an interview; now, who is this guy really...) I feel like this could happen again, and to anyone. And, looking back it’s obvious, this guy was offering 3 billion dollars to buy a piece of Twitter to a surprised Musk saying, “Does Sam have 3b liquid?”

As soonest as that message did come out it should have been aggregated, it should have moved the needle strongly towards the insolvency of this company and hopefully save thousands of users from having their funds locked. The same goes for any centralized exchange functioning right now, this lowers the probability that they will be able to sustain a bank-run (by different amounts.)

We have to find ways in which the skepticism of people are accounted for and people that were right are rewarded, in the case of FTX this would have been a service to the tune of a billion dollar value.

This will happen again, how can we save the next thousands of users and the next billion of dollars?