[Question] Where in the world will a UBI develop first?

Disclaimer: As a pathological lurker, I’m partially asking this question to help pave the way for questions/​posts that I have spent more time thinking about and am more emotionally invested in. However, this question also struck me as important and relevant to the miscellany of other half-baked posts bouncing around my head.

Without any further ado, where in the world will a UBI develop first?

I feel like stabs, some tentative, some rushed, have shown up in a lot of the western world. I’d disqualify them from the status of full UBI, because of either:

  • Less than universal. Examples: Pilot projects done by philanthropists, universities, and governments.

  • Less than basic. Examples: SNAP [food stamps], EITC [tax credits].

  • Less than an income. Examples: COVID-19 direct payments by the US Government, Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend.

So, even though this question is probably hosted in some form on PredictIt and Metaculus already, I ask you, LessWrong, where do you think a UBI will first develop, and why?