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Fore­cast­ing & Prediction

TagLast edit: 1 Oct 2020 21:37 UTC by Ruby

Fore­cast­ing or Pre­dict­ing is the act of mak­ing state­ments about what will hap­pen in the fu­ture (and in some cases, the past). This tag is for dis­cus­sion of the prac­tice, skill, and method­ol­ogy of fore­cast­ing. Posts ex­clu­sively con­tain­ing ob­ject-level lists of fore­casts and pre­dic­tions are in Fore­casts. Re­lated: Bet­ting.

Above all, don’t ask what to be­lieve—ask what to an­ti­ci­pate. Every ques­tion of be­lief should flow from a ques­tion of an­ti­ci­pa­tion, and that ques­tion of an­ti­ci­pa­tion should be the cen­ter of the in­quiry. – Mak­ing Beliefs Pay Rent

See also

Ex­ter­nal links

Pre­dic­tionBook, a web­site that keeps track of pre­dic­tions and cal­ibra­tion levels

A frame­work for think­ing about sin­gle predictions

Rafael Harth13 Nov 2020 16:12 UTC
13 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

Range and Fore­cast­ing Accuracy

niplav16 Nov 2020 13:06 UTC
17 points
13 comments18 min readLW link

Assess­ing Kurzweil pre­dic­tions about 2019: the results

Stuart_Armstrong6 May 2020 13:36 UTC
128 points
17 comments4 min readLW link

How to eval­u­ate (50%) predictions

Rafael Harth10 Apr 2020 17:12 UTC
118 points
48 comments9 min readLW link

[Part 1] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – Models of im­pact and challenges

19 Dec 2019 15:50 UTC
53 points
21 comments17 min readLW link

16 types of use­ful predictions

Julia_Galef10 Apr 2015 3:31 UTC
110 points
54 comments8 min readLW link

S-Curves for Trend Forecasting

mr-hire23 Jan 2019 18:17 UTC
103 points
14 comments3 min readLW link

Com­pe­ti­tion: Am­plify Ro­hin’s Pre­dic­tion on AGI re­searchers & Safety Concerns

stuhlmueller21 Jul 2020 20:06 UTC
86 points
40 comments3 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Nov 2020 13:09 UTC
10 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

AGI Predictions

21 Nov 2020 3:46 UTC
101 points
31 comments4 min readLW link

Dis­con­tin­u­ous progress in his­tory: an update

KatjaGrace14 Apr 2020 0:00 UTC
163 points
20 comments31 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Failures in tech­nol­ogy fore­cast­ing? A re­ply to Ord and Yudkowsky

MichaelA8 May 2020 12:41 UTC
46 points
19 comments11 min readLW link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA20 Apr 2020 1:08 UTC
22 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter. June 2020.

NunoSempere1 Jul 2020 9:46 UTC
27 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Fu­tur­is­tic Pre­dic­tions as Con­sum­able Goods

Eliezer Yudkowsky10 Apr 2007 0:18 UTC
27 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Mul­ti­vari­ate es­ti­ma­tion & the Squig­gly language

ozziegooen5 Sep 2020 4:35 UTC
42 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

Launch­ing Fore­cast, a com­mu­nity for crowd­sourced pre­dic­tions from Facebook

Rebecca Kossnick20 Oct 2020 6:20 UTC
53 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Statis­ti­cal Pre­dic­tion Rules Out-Perform Ex­pert Hu­man Judgments

lukeprog18 Jan 2011 3:19 UTC
71 points
198 comments5 min readLW link

Are “su­perfore­cast­ers” a real phe­nomenon?

reallyeli9 Jan 2020 1:23 UTC
31 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

My stum­ble on COVID-19

AllAmericanBreakfast18 Apr 2020 4:32 UTC
40 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

How su­perfore­cast­ing could be manipulated

AllAmericanBreakfast17 Apr 2020 6:47 UTC
24 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Eval­u­at­ing Pre­dic­tions in Hindsight

Zvi16 Apr 2020 17:20 UTC
58 points
8 comments27 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Pre­dic­tion-based medicine (PBM)

ChristianKl29 Dec 2016 22:49 UTC
31 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

[Link] Beyond the hill: thoughts on on­tolo­gies for think­ing, es­say-com­plete­ness and fore­cast­ing

jacobjacob2 Feb 2020 12:39 UTC
35 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Part 2] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – re­sults from a pre­limi­nary exploration

19 Dec 2019 15:49 UTC
48 points
5 comments14 min readLW link

Run­ning Effec­tive Struc­tured Fore­cast­ing Sessions

6 Sep 2019 21:30 UTC
22 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

How to write good AI fore­cast­ing ques­tions + Ques­tion Database (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 3)

3 Sep 2019 14:50 UTC
31 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­s­olu­tion Coun­cil (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 2)

29 Aug 2019 17:35 UTC
31 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing Dic­tionary (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 1)

8 Aug 2019 16:10 UTC
43 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Con­ver­sa­tion on fore­cast­ing with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

30 Jul 2019 11:16 UTC
43 points
18 comments32 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion as coordination

jacobjacob23 Jul 2019 6:19 UTC
46 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

The Pre­dic­tion Pyra­mid: Why Fun­da­men­tal Work is Needed for Pre­dic­tion Work

ozziegooen14 Feb 2019 16:21 UTC
44 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] “The Sig­nal and the Noise: Why So Many Pre­dic­tions Fail—But Some Don’t.”, by Nate Silver

Douglas_Reay7 Oct 2012 7:29 UTC
9 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dict—“Log your pre­dic­tions” app

Gust17 Aug 2015 16:20 UTC
21 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Throw a pre­dic­tion party with your EA/​ra­tio­nal­ity group

eukaryote31 Dec 2016 23:02 UTC
8 points
14 comments3 min readLW link

Cal­ibra­tion Prac­tice: Retro­d­ic­tions on Metaculus

Raemon14 Jul 2020 18:35 UTC
31 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Ben­tham Prize at Metaculus

AABoyles27 Jan 2020 14:27 UTC
29 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

In­tro­duc­ing Fore­told.io: A New Open-Source Pre­dic­tion Registry

ozziegooen16 Oct 2019 14:23 UTC
91 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

On Overconfidence

Scott Alexander21 Aug 2015 2:21 UTC
39 points
3 comments14 min readLW link

Con­fi­dence lev­els in­side and out­side an argument

Scott Alexander16 Dec 2010 3:06 UTC
165 points
190 comments6 min readLW link

Some high­lights from Nate Silver’s “The Sig­nal and the Noise”

JonahS13 Jul 2013 15:21 UTC
24 points
11 comments6 min readLW link

Call for vol­un­teers: as­sess­ing Kurzweil, 2019

Stuart_Armstrong2 Apr 2020 12:07 UTC
27 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

Shal­low Re­view of Con­sis­tency in State­ment Evaluation

Elizabeth9 Sep 2019 23:21 UTC
68 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

Mul­ti­tudi­nous out­side views

Davidmanheim18 Aug 2020 6:21 UTC
47 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

A ques­tion about Eliezer

perpetualpeace119 Apr 2012 17:27 UTC
39 points
160 comments1 min readLW link

[LINK] What should a rea­son­able per­son be­lieve about the Sin­gu­lar­ity?

Kaj_Sotala13 Jan 2011 9:32 UTC
27 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Long-Term Tech­nolog­i­cal Forecasting

lukeprog11 Jan 2012 4:13 UTC
22 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AI Progress: A Re­search Agenda

10 Aug 2020 1:04 UTC
39 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dictably Pre­dictable Fu­tures Talk: Us­ing Ex­pected Loss & Pre­dic­tion In­no­va­tion for Long Term Benefits

ozziegooen8 Jan 2020 12:51 UTC
13 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

Ideas for Next Gen­er­a­tion Pre­dic­tion Technologies

ozziegooen21 Feb 2019 11:38 UTC
17 points
25 comments6 min readLW link

Reflec­tions on AI Timelines Fore­cast­ing Thread

Amandango1 Sep 2020 1:42 UTC
50 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Ten Com­mand­ments for Aspiring Superforecasters

Evan_Gaensbauer25 Apr 2018 4:55 UTC
74 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

9 Nov 2020 16:20 UTC
23 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

Time Travel Mar­kets for In­tel­lec­tual Accounting

abramdemski9 Nov 2020 16:58 UTC
34 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

Embed­ded In­ter­ac­tive Pre­dic­tions on LessWrong

Amandango20 Nov 2020 18:35 UTC
204 points
78 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2020.

NunoSempere31 May 2020 12:35 UTC
8 points
1 comment20 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2020

NunoSempere30 Apr 2020 16:41 UTC
22 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Del­e­gate a Forecast

Amandango28 Jul 2020 17:43 UTC
42 points
25 comments2 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

FLI Pod­cast: On Su­perfore­cast­ing with Robert de Neufville

Palus Astra30 Apr 2020 23:08 UTC
6 points
0 comments52 min readLW link

Jan Bloch’s Im­pos­si­ble War

Hivewired17 Feb 2020 16:14 UTC
102 points
31 comments5 min readLW link
(hivewired.wordpress.com)

Atari early

KatjaGrace2 Apr 2020 6:10 UTC
89 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Ar­gu­ment, in­tu­ition, and recursion

paulfchristiano5 Mar 2018 1:37 UTC
103 points
12 comments9 min readLW link2 nominations1 review

Seek Fair Ex­pec­ta­tions of Others’ Models

Zvi17 Oct 2017 14:30 UTC
103 points
17 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Don’t Con­di­tion on no Catastrophes

Scott Garrabrant21 Feb 2018 21:50 UTC
82 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Prob­lems in AI Align­ment that philoso­phers could po­ten­tially con­tribute to

Wei_Dai17 Aug 2019 17:38 UTC
84 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Rea­son­able Explanations

Alicorn16 Jun 2019 5:29 UTC
78 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

What a 20-year-lead in mil­i­tary tech might look like

Daniel Kokotajlo29 Jul 2020 20:10 UTC
65 points
44 comments16 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2020.

NunoSempere1 Aug 2020 17:08 UTC
22 points
4 comments22 min readLW link

After crit­i­cal event W hap­pens, they still won’t be­lieve you

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Jun 2013 21:59 UTC
44 points
107 comments3 min readLW link

Mea­sur­ing Meta-Certainty

Bob Jacobs5 Jul 2020 21:15 UTC
8 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

How fea­si­ble is long-range fore­cast­ing?

Ben Pace10 Oct 2019 22:11 UTC
43 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Ab­sur­dity Heuris­tic, Ab­sur­dity Bias

Eliezer Yudkowsky5 Sep 2007 3:20 UTC
40 points
9 comments2 min readLW link

SlateS­tarCodex 2020 Pre­dic­tions: Buy, Sell, Hold

Zvi1 May 2020 14:30 UTC
57 points
15 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Cri­tique my Model: The EV of AGI to Selfish Individuals

ozziegooen8 Apr 2018 20:04 UTC
51 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tionBook.com—Track your calibration

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Oct 2009 0:08 UTC
34 points
53 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] His­tor­i­cal fore­cast­ing: Are there ways I can get lots of data, but only up to a cer­tain date?

elityre21 Nov 2019 17:16 UTC
39 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tions: good ac­cu­racy, poor self-calibration

Stuart_Armstrong11 Jul 2012 9:55 UTC
36 points
39 comments9 min readLW link

Kah­ne­man’s Plan­ning Anecdote

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Sep 2007 16:39 UTC
27 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Ra­tion­al­ity Is Not Sys­tem­atized Winning

namespace11 Nov 2018 22:05 UTC
39 points
20 comments1 min readLW link
(www.thelastrationalist.com)

The File Drawer Effect and Con­for­mity Bias (Elec­tion Edi­tion)

Salemicus8 May 2015 16:51 UTC
31 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

Rais­ing the fore­cast­ing wa­ter­line (part 1)

Morendil9 Oct 2012 15:49 UTC
33 points
106 comments6 min readLW link

[LINK] Get paid to train your rationality

XFrequentist3 Aug 2011 15:01 UTC
27 points
55 comments3 min readLW link

Against easy su­per­in­tel­li­gence: the un­fore­seen fric­tion argument

Stuart_Armstrong10 Jul 2013 13:47 UTC
25 points
48 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] How can guessti­mates work?

jacobjacob10 Jul 2019 19:33 UTC
26 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Knigh­tian un­cer­tainty in a Bayesian framework

So8res24 Jul 2014 14:31 UTC
27 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

A thought-pro­cess test­ing opportunity

[deleted]22 Apr 2013 19:51 UTC
27 points
28 comments1 min readLW link

Over­con­fi­dent Pessimism

lukeprog24 Nov 2012 0:47 UTC
25 points
38 comments4 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tive Rea­son­ing Systems

ozziegooen20 Feb 2019 19:44 UTC
27 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What to make of Aubrey de Grey’s pre­dic­tion?

Rafael Harth28 Feb 2020 19:25 UTC
24 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

I Started a Sports and Gam­bling Substack

Zvi25 Aug 2020 21:30 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

In­tro­duc­tion to fore­cast­ing work­sheet

edoarad6 May 2020 13:54 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.foretold.io)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2020.

NunoSempere1 Sep 2020 11:38 UTC
16 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

[Question] Do bond yield curve in­ver­sions re­ally in­di­cate there is likely to be a re­ces­sion?

bgold10 Jul 2019 1:23 UTC
22 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

How to reach 80% of your goals. Ex­actly 80%.

Stuckwork10 Oct 2020 17:33 UTC
29 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Separat­ing the roles of the­ory and di­rect em­piri­cal ev­i­dence in be­lief for­ma­tion: the ex­am­ples of min­i­mum wage and an­thro­pogenic global warming

VipulNaik25 Jun 2014 21:47 UTC
24 points
66 comments4 min readLW link

In­trade and the Dow Drop

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Oct 2008 3:12 UTC
2 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Models pre­dict­ing sig­nifi­cant vi­o­lence in the US?

kdbscott25 Oct 2020 18:45 UTC
54 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

A prior for tech­nolog­i­cal discontinuities

NunoSempere13 Oct 2020 16:51 UTC
50 points
17 comments6 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt: Pres­i­den­tial Mar­ket is In­creas­ingly Wrong

Zvi18 Oct 2020 22:40 UTC
39 points
28 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Bet­ting Thread

Amandango20 Oct 2020 2:17 UTC
33 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Bet On Biden

deluks91717 Oct 2020 22:03 UTC
39 points
84 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2020 11:00 UTC
24 points
3 comments11 min readLW link

[AN #121]: Fore­cast­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI timelines us­ing biolog­i­cal anchors

rohinmshah14 Oct 2020 17:20 UTC
22 points
5 comments14 min readLW link
(mailchi.mp)

Ad­just­ing prob­a­bil­ities for the pas­sage of time, us­ing Squiggle

NunoSempere23 Oct 2020 18:55 UTC
15 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What fea­tures would you like a pre­dic­tion plat­form to have?

Mati_Roy13 Oct 2020 0:48 UTC
8 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Does play­ing hard to get work? AB test­ing for romance

amplemaple26 Oct 2020 15:29 UTC
17 points
26 comments5 min readLW link

Dis­ap­point­ment in the Future

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Dec 2008 4:45 UTC
9 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion should be a sport

chaosmage10 Aug 2017 7:55 UTC
13 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Dialec­ti­cal Bootstrapping

Johnicholas13 Mar 2009 17:10 UTC
21 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Gen­er­al­ize Kelly to Ac­count for # Iter­a­tions?

abramdemski2 Nov 2020 16:36 UTC
24 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

In­vest­ing for the Long Slump

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Jan 2009 8:56 UTC
8 points
54 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are good ML/​AI re­lated pre­dic­tion /​ cal­ibra­tion ques­tions for 2019?

james_t4 Jan 2019 2:40 UTC
18 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Wrong Tomorrow

Eliezer Yudkowsky2 Apr 2009 8:18 UTC
7 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Scor­ing 2020 U.S. Pres­i­den­tial Elec­tion Predictions

Zack_M_Davis8 Nov 2020 2:28 UTC
37 points
6 comments4 min readLW link
(zackmdavis.net)

Pre­dic­tions made by Mati Roy in early 2020

Mati_Roy21 Nov 2020 3:24 UTC
22 points
7 comments16 min readLW link

Au­tomat­ing rea­son­ing about the fu­ture at Ought

jungofthewon9 Nov 2020 21:51 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(ought.org)

[Question] Is there a.. more ex­act.. way of scor­ing a pre­dic­tor’s cal­ibra­tion?

MakoYass16 Jan 2019 8:19 UTC
22 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­gram­matic Pre­dic­tion markets

whpearson25 Apr 2009 9:29 UTC
3 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tionBook: A Short Note

Jayson_Virissimo10 Nov 2011 15:10 UTC
20 points
37 comments2 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

15 Nov 2020 21:12 UTC
71 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

SETI Predictions

hippke30 Nov 2020 20:09 UTC
11 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
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