RSS

Fore­cast­ing & Prediction

TagLast edit: 24 Sep 2022 19:09 UTC by Nathan Young

Forecasting or Predicting is the act of making statements about what will happen in the future (and in some cases, the past) and then scoring the predictions. Posts marked with this tag are for discussion of the practice, skill, and methodology of forecasting. Posts exclusively containing object-level lists of forecasts and predictions are in Forecasts. Related: Betting.

Above all, don’t ask what to believe—ask what to anticipate. Every question of belief should flow from a question of anticipation, and that question of anticipation should be the center of the inquiry. – Making Beliefs Pay Rent)

Forecasting allows individuals and institutions to test their internal models of reality. A good forecaster can have confidence in future predictions and hence actions in the same area as they have a good track record in. Organisations with decision-makers with good track records can likewise be more confident in their choices.

Forecasting Techniques

Forecasting is hard but many top forecasters use common techniques. This suggests that forecasting is a skill that can be learnt and practised.

Base rates

Reference Class Forecasting on Wikipedia

Suppose we are trying to find the probability that an event will occur within the next 5 years. One good place to start is by asking “of all similar time periods, what fraction of the time does this event occur?”. This is the base rate.

If we want to know the probability that Joe Biden is President of the United States on Nov. 1st, 2024, we could ask

These are all examples of using base rates. [These examples are taken from Base Rates and Reference Classes by jsteinhardt.]

Base rates represent the outside view for a given question. They are a good place to start but can often be improved on by updating the probability according to an inside view.

Note that there are often several reference classes we could use, each implying a different base rate. The problem of deciding which class to use is known as the reference class problem.

Calibration training

A forecaster is said to be calibrated if the events they say have a X% chance of happening, happen X% of the time.

Most people are overconfident. When they say an event has a 99% chance of happening, often the events happen much less frequently than that.

This natural overconfidence can be corrected with calibration training. In calibration training, you are asked to answer a set of factual questions, assigning a probability to each of your answers.

A list of calibration training exercises can be found here.

Question decomposition

Much like Fermi estimation, questions about future events can often be decomposed into many different questions, these questions can be answered, and the answers to these questions can be used to reconstruct an answer to the original question.

Suppose you are interested in whether AI will cause a catastrophe by 2100. For AI to cause such an event, several things need to be true: (1) it needs to be possible to build advanced AI with agentic planning and strategic awareness by 2100, (2) there need to be strong incentives to apply such a system, (3) it needs to be difficult to align such a system should it be deployed, (4) a deployed and unaligned AI would act in unintended and high-impact power seeking ways causing trillions of dollars in damage, (5) of these consequences will result in the permanent disempowerment of all humanity and (6) this disempowerment will constitute an existential catastrophe. Taking the probabilities that Eli Lifland assigned to each question gives a 80%, 85%, 75%, 90%, 80% and 95% chance of events 1 through 6 respectively. Since each event is conditional on the ones before it, we can find the probability of the original question by multiplying all the probabilities together. This gives Eli Lifland a probability of existential risk from misaligned AI before 2100 to be approximately 35%. For more detail see Eli’s original post here.

Decomposing questions into their constituent parts, assigning probabilities to these sub-questions, and combining these probabilities to answer the original questions is believed to improve forecasts. This is because, while each forecast is noisy, combining the estimates from many questions cancels the noise and leaves us with the signal.

Question decomposition is also good at increasing epistemic legibility. It helps forecasters to communicate to others why they’ve made the forecast that they did and it allows them to identify their specific points of disagreement.

Premortems

Premortems on Wikipedia

A premortem is a strategy used once you’ve assigned a probability to an event. You ask yourself to imagine that the forecast was wrong and you then work backwards to determine what could potentially have caused this.

It is simply a way to reframe the question “in what ways might I be wrong?” but in a way that reduces motivated reasoning caused by attachment to the bottom line.

Practice

Getting Started on the Forecasting Wiki

While the above techniques are useful, they are no substitute for actually making predictions. Get out there and make predictions! Use the above techniques. Keep track of your predictions. Periodically evaluate questions that have been resolved and review your performance. Assess the degree to which you are calibrated. Look out for systematic mistakes that you might be making. Make more predictions! Over time, like with any skill, your ability can and should improve.

Other Resources

Other resources include:

State of the Art

For many years there have been calls to apply forecasting techniques to non-academic domains including journalism, policy, investing and business strategy. Several organisations now exist within these niche.

Metaculus

Metaculus is a popular and established web platform for forecasting. Their questions mainly focus on geopolitics, the coronavirus pandemic and topics of interest to Effective Altruism.

They host prediction competitions with real money prizes and collect and track public predictions made by various figures.

Cultivate Labs

Cultivate Labs build tools that companies can use to crowdsource information from among their employees. This helps leadership to understand the consensus of people working on the ground and use this to improve the decisions they make.

Kalshi

Kalshi provide real money prediction markets on geopolitical events. The financial options they provide are intended to be used as hedges for political risk.

Manifold.Markets

Manifold.Markets is a prediction market platform that uses play money. It is noteworthy for its ease of use, great UI and the fact that the market creator decides how the market resolves.

QURI

QURI is a research organisation that builds tools that make it easier to make good forecasts. Their most notable tool is Squiggle—a programming language designed to be used to make legible forecasts in a wide range of contexts.

See also

Ta­boo “Out­side View”

Daniel Kokotajlo17 Jun 2021 9:36 UTC
314 points
25 comments8 min readLW link

Range and Fore­cast­ing Accuracy

niplav27 May 2022 18:47 UTC
48 points
19 comments40 min readLW link1 review

In­for­ma­tion Charts

Rafael Harth13 Nov 2020 16:12 UTC
28 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

How to eval­u­ate (50%) predictions

Rafael Harth10 Apr 2020 17:12 UTC
122 points
50 comments9 min readLW link

Assess­ing Kurzweil pre­dic­tions about 2019: the results

Stuart_Armstrong6 May 2020 13:36 UTC
143 points
20 comments4 min readLW link

[Part 1] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – Models of im­pact and challenges

19 Dec 2019 15:50 UTC
55 points
29 comments17 min readLW link

16 types of use­ful predictions

Julia_Galef10 Apr 2015 3:31 UTC
161 points
55 comments8 min readLW link

What 2026 looks like

Daniel Kokotajlo6 Aug 2021 16:14 UTC
359 points
85 comments16 min readLW link

Be­ware boast­ing about non-ex­is­tent fore­cast­ing track records

Jotto99920 May 2022 19:20 UTC
259 points
109 comments5 min readLW link

S-Curves for Trend Forecasting

Matt Goldenberg23 Jan 2019 18:17 UTC
99 points
22 comments7 min readLW link4 reviews

Com­pe­ti­tion: Am­plify Ro­hin’s Pre­dic­tion on AGI re­searchers & Safety Concerns

stuhlmueller21 Jul 2020 20:06 UTC
80 points
40 comments3 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Nov 2020 13:09 UTC
11 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Embed­ded In­ter­ac­tive Pre­dic­tions on LessWrong

Amandango20 Nov 2020 18:35 UTC
243 points
91 comments2 min readLW link1 review

AGI Predictions

21 Nov 2020 3:46 UTC
109 points
36 comments4 min readLW link

Real-Life Ex­am­ples of Pre­dic­tion Sys­tems In­terfer­ing with the Real World (Pre­dict-O-Matic Prob­lems)

NunoSempere3 Dec 2020 22:00 UTC
120 points
29 comments9 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Look­ing back at 2021

NunoSempere27 Jan 2022 20:08 UTC
57 points
6 comments9 min readLW link
(forecasting.substack.com)

[Question] Is there an equiv­a­lent of the CDF for grad­ing pre­dic­tions?

Optimization Process11 Apr 2022 5:30 UTC
6 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Statis­ti­cal Pre­dic­tion Rules Out-Perform Ex­pert Hu­man Judgments

lukeprog18 Jan 2011 3:19 UTC
92 points
199 comments5 min readLW link

Dis­con­tin­u­ous progress in his­tory: an update

KatjaGrace14 Apr 2020 0:00 UTC
178 points
25 comments31 min readLW link1 review
(aiimpacts.org)

Failures in tech­nol­ogy fore­cast­ing? A re­ply to Ord and Yudkowsky

MichaelA8 May 2020 12:41 UTC
44 points
19 comments11 min readLW link

Database of ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA20 Apr 2020 1:08 UTC
21 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter. June 2020.

NunoSempere1 Jul 2020 9:46 UTC
27 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

On Overconfidence

Scott Alexander21 Aug 2015 2:21 UTC
49 points
5 comments14 min readLW link

Fu­tur­is­tic Pre­dic­tions as Con­sum­able Goods

Eliezer Yudkowsky10 Apr 2007 0:18 UTC
35 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Mul­ti­vari­ate es­ti­ma­tion & the Squig­gly language

ozziegooen5 Sep 2020 4:35 UTC
44 points
5 comments7 min readLW link

Launch­ing Fore­cast, a com­mu­nity for crowd­sourced pre­dic­tions from Facebook

Rebecca Kossnick20 Oct 2020 6:20 UTC
110 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

Launch­ing the Fore­cast­ing AI Progress Tournament

Tamay7 Dec 2020 14:08 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Novem­ber 2021

NunoSempere2 Dec 2021 21:44 UTC
18 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

The pos­si­bil­ity of no good amaz­ing forecasters

Johannes C. Mayer3 Jan 2022 12:57 UTC
3 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Ret­ro­spec­tive forecasting

Ege Erdil30 Jan 2022 16:38 UTC
21 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Ukraine Post #1: Pre­dic­tion Markets

Zvi28 Feb 2022 19:20 UTC
67 points
1 comment16 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Linkpost] Solv­ing Quan­ti­ta­tive Rea­son­ing Prob­lems with Lan­guage Models

Yitz30 Jun 2022 18:58 UTC
76 points
15 comments2 min readLW link
(storage.googleapis.com)

A time-in­var­i­ant ver­sion of Laplace’s rule

15 Jul 2022 19:28 UTC
63 points
5 comments17 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

Are “su­perfore­cast­ers” a real phe­nomenon?

reallyeli9 Jan 2020 1:23 UTC
36 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

My stum­ble on COVID-19

AllAmericanBreakfast18 Apr 2020 4:32 UTC
39 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

How su­perfore­cast­ing could be manipulated

AllAmericanBreakfast17 Apr 2020 6:47 UTC
24 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Eval­u­at­ing Pre­dic­tions in Hindsight

Zvi16 Apr 2020 17:20 UTC
54 points
9 comments27 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Pre­dic­tion-based medicine (PBM)

ChristianKl29 Dec 2016 22:49 UTC
38 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

[Link] Beyond the hill: thoughts on on­tolo­gies for think­ing, es­say-com­plete­ness and fore­cast­ing

jacobjacob2 Feb 2020 12:39 UTC
33 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Part 2] Am­plify­ing gen­er­al­ist re­search via fore­cast­ing – re­sults from a pre­limi­nary exploration

19 Dec 2019 15:49 UTC
62 points
10 comments14 min readLW link1 review

Run­ning Effec­tive Struc­tured Fore­cast­ing Sessions

6 Sep 2019 21:30 UTC
21 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

How to write good AI fore­cast­ing ques­tions + Ques­tion Database (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 3)

3 Sep 2019 14:50 UTC
29 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing Re­s­olu­tion Coun­cil (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 2)

29 Aug 2019 17:35 UTC
35 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

AI Fore­cast­ing Dic­tionary (Fore­cast­ing in­fras­truc­ture, part 1)

8 Aug 2019 16:10 UTC
50 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Con­ver­sa­tion on fore­cast­ing with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

30 Jul 2019 11:16 UTC
41 points
18 comments32 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion as coordination

jacobjacob23 Jul 2019 6:19 UTC
42 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

The Pre­dic­tion Pyra­mid: Why Fun­da­men­tal Work is Needed for Pre­dic­tion Work

ozziegooen14 Feb 2019 16:21 UTC
42 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

[Book Re­view] “The Sig­nal and the Noise: Why So Many Pre­dic­tions Fail—But Some Don’t.”, by Nate Silver

Douglas_Reay7 Oct 2012 7:29 UTC
16 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dict—“Log your pre­dic­tions” app

Gust17 Aug 2015 16:20 UTC
26 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Throw a pre­dic­tion party with your EA/​ra­tio­nal­ity group

eukaryote31 Dec 2016 23:02 UTC
14 points
14 comments3 min readLW link

Cal­ibra­tion Prac­tice: Retro­d­ic­tions on Metaculus

Raemon14 Jul 2020 18:35 UTC
31 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Ben­tham Prize at Metaculus

AABoyles27 Jan 2020 14:27 UTC
28 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

In­tro­duc­ing Fore­told.io: A New Open-Source Pre­dic­tion Registry

ozziegooen16 Oct 2019 14:23 UTC
79 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

Con­fi­dence lev­els in­side and out­side an argument

Scott Alexander16 Dec 2010 3:06 UTC
224 points
193 comments6 min readLW link

Some high­lights from Nate Silver’s “The Sig­nal and the Noise”

JonahS13 Jul 2013 15:21 UTC
35 points
11 comments6 min readLW link

What a 20-year-lead in mil­i­tary tech might look like

Daniel Kokotajlo29 Jul 2020 20:10 UTC
68 points
44 comments16 min readLW link

Call for vol­un­teers: as­sess­ing Kurzweil, 2019

Stuart_Armstrong2 Apr 2020 12:07 UTC
26 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

Shal­low Re­view of Con­sis­tency in State­ment Evaluation

Elizabeth9 Sep 2019 23:21 UTC
65 points
6 comments9 min readLW link

How fea­si­ble is long-range fore­cast­ing?

Ben Pace10 Oct 2019 22:11 UTC
40 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Mul­ti­tudi­nous out­side views

Davidmanheim18 Aug 2020 6:21 UTC
55 points
13 comments3 min readLW link

A ques­tion about Eliezer

perpetualpeace119 Apr 2012 17:27 UTC
53 points
160 comments1 min readLW link

[LINK] What should a rea­son­able per­son be­lieve about the Sin­gu­lar­ity?

Kaj_Sotala13 Jan 2011 9:32 UTC
38 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Long-Term Tech­nolog­i­cal Forecasting

lukeprog11 Jan 2012 4:13 UTC
35 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing AI Progress: A Re­search Agenda

10 Aug 2020 1:04 UTC
39 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dictably Pre­dictable Fu­tures Talk: Us­ing Ex­pected Loss & Pre­dic­tion In­no­va­tion for Long Term Benefits

ozziegooen8 Jan 2020 12:51 UTC
13 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

Ideas for Next Gen­er­a­tion Pre­dic­tion Technologies

ozziegooen21 Feb 2019 11:38 UTC
22 points
25 comments7 min readLW link

Reflec­tions on AI Timelines Fore­cast­ing Thread

Amandango1 Sep 2020 1:42 UTC
53 points
7 comments5 min readLW link

Ten Com­mand­ments for Aspiring Superforecasters

Evan_Gaensbauer25 Apr 2018 4:55 UTC
28 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

9 Nov 2020 16:20 UTC
43 points
20 comments5 min readLW link

Time Travel Mar­kets for In­tel­lec­tual Accounting

abramdemski9 Nov 2020 16:58 UTC
38 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

15 Nov 2020 21:12 UTC
68 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Num­ber-guess­ing pro­to­col?

abramdemski7 Dec 2020 15:07 UTC
19 points
28 comments1 min readLW link

Su­per-fore­cast­ers as a ser­vice

frcassarino12 Feb 2021 13:35 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(federicorcassarino.substack.com)

Fore­cast­ing Prize Results

19 Feb 2021 19:07 UTC
37 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Re­s­olu­tions to the Challenge of Re­solv­ing Forecasts

Davidmanheim11 Mar 2021 19:08 UTC
57 points
13 comments5 min readLW link

Sys­tem­atiz­ing Epistemics: Prin­ci­ples for Re­solv­ing Forecasts

Davidmanheim29 Mar 2021 20:46 UTC
33 points
8 comments11 min readLW link

Spec­u­la­tions Con­cern­ing the First Free-ish Pre­dic­tion Market

mike_hawke31 Mar 2021 3:20 UTC
29 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Prevent­ing over­charg­ing by prosecutors

ChristianKl6 Apr 2021 11:13 UTC
29 points
35 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2021

NunoSempere1 May 2021 16:07 UTC
9 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

AXRP Epi­sode 7.5 - Fore­cast­ing Trans­for­ma­tive AI from Biolog­i­cal An­chors with Ajeya Cotra

DanielFilan28 May 2021 0:20 UTC
24 points
1 comment67 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2021

NunoSempere1 Jul 2021 21:35 UTC
13 points
2 comments14 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2021

NunoSempere1 Sep 2021 17:01 UTC
20 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Growth of pre­dic­tion mar­kets over time?

Daniel Kokotajlo2 Sep 2021 13:43 UTC
16 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

[Link post] When pool­ing fore­casts, use the ge­o­met­ric mean of odds

Jsevillamol6 Sep 2021 6:45 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

My Hyper­mind Aris­ing In­tel­li­gence Fore­casts and Reflections

elifland26 Sep 2021 20:47 UTC
23 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(www.foxy-scout.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2021.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2021 17:06 UTC
13 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

[Pre­dic­tion] We are in an Al­gorith­mic Over­hang, Part 2

lsusr17 Oct 2021 7:48 UTC
20 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Oc­to­ber 2021.

NunoSempere2 Nov 2021 14:07 UTC
22 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Tele­vised sports ex­ist to gam­ble with testos­terone lev­els us­ing pre­dic­tion skill

Lucent14 Nov 2021 18:24 UTC
22 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing: Zeroth and First Order

jsteinhardt18 Nov 2021 1:30 UTC
33 points
6 comments5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Yud­kowsky and Chris­ti­ano dis­cuss “Take­off Speeds”

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Nov 2021 19:35 UTC
191 points
180 comments60 min readLW link

Laplace’s rule of succession

Ege Erdil23 Nov 2021 15:48 UTC
47 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

Base Rates and Refer­ence Classes

jsteinhardt24 Nov 2021 22:30 UTC
19 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Chris­ti­ano, Co­tra, and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

25 Nov 2021 16:45 UTC
117 points
95 comments68 min readLW link

Biol­ogy-In­spired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Dec 2021 22:35 UTC
181 points
143 comments65 min readLW link

Com­bin­ing Forecasts

jsteinhardt10 Dec 2021 2:10 UTC
10 points
1 comment6 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

The “Other” Option

jsteinhardt16 Dec 2021 20:20 UTC
24 points
1 comment7 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Pri­ori­tiz­ing Information

jsteinhardt24 Dec 2021 0:00 UTC
15 points
0 comments7 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

From Con­sid­er­a­tions to Probabilities

jsteinhardt31 Dec 2021 2:10 UTC
10 points
1 comment5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2021

NunoSempere10 Jan 2022 19:35 UTC
30 points
5 comments9 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2022

NunoSempere3 Feb 2022 19:22 UTC
17 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Im­pact­ful Fore­cast­ing Prize for fore­cast write­ups on cu­rated Me­tac­u­lus questions

4 Feb 2022 20:06 UTC
36 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Ukraine #4: Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Move­ment Modeling

Zvi15 Mar 2022 22:20 UTC
28 points
1 comment14 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Thoughts on the SPIES Fore­cast­ing Method?

rodeo_flagellum19 Mar 2022 15:22 UTC
19 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Is Me­tac­u­lus Slow to Up­date?

SimonM25 Mar 2022 19:44 UTC
73 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Ukraine Post #7: Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Update

Zvi28 Mar 2022 16:10 UTC
45 points
3 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Con­fi­dence Levels in Fore­casts and Psy­cholog­i­cal Surveys

rodeo_flagellum31 Mar 2022 2:54 UTC
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2022

NunoSempere5 Apr 2022 20:23 UTC
15 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Is there a con­ve­nient way to make “sealed” pre­dic­tions?

Daniel Kokotajlo6 May 2022 23:00 UTC
32 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

Sealed pre­dic­tions thread

Zach Stein-Perlman7 May 2022 18:00 UTC
22 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Build­ing an Epistemic Sta­tus Tracker

rcu22 Jun 2022 18:57 UTC
6 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing Epoch: A re­search or­ga­ni­za­tion in­ves­ti­gat­ing the road to Trans­for­ma­tive AI

27 Jun 2022 13:55 UTC
95 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

The Track Record of Fu­tur­ists Seems … Fine

HoldenKarnofsky30 Jun 2022 19:40 UTC
91 points
23 comments12 min readLW link
(www.cold-takes.com)

Paper: Fore­cast­ing world events with neu­ral nets

1 Jul 2022 19:40 UTC
39 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing ML Bench­marks in 2023

jsteinhardt18 Jul 2022 2:50 UTC
36 points
19 comments12 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Pre­dic­tIt is clos­ing due to CFTC chang­ing its mind

eigen6 Aug 2022 3:34 UTC
20 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­ing Past­cast­ing: A tool for fore­cast­ing practice

Sage Future11 Aug 2022 17:38 UTC
86 points
7 comments2 min readLW link

Alex Lawsen On Fore­cast­ing AI Progress

Michaël Trazzi6 Sep 2022 9:32 UTC
18 points
0 comments2 min readLW link
(theinsideview.ai)

[Question] In fore­cast­ing, how do ac­cu­racy, cal­ibra­tion and re­li­a­bil­ity re­late to each other?

amarai11 Sep 2022 12:04 UTC
3 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus is build­ing a team ded­i­cated to AI forecasting

ChristianWilliams18 Oct 2022 16:08 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus An­nounces The Million Pre­dic­tions Hackathon

ChristianWilliams10 Nov 2022 20:00 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Some re­search ideas in forecasting

Jsevillamol15 Nov 2022 19:47 UTC
35 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2020.

NunoSempere31 May 2020 12:35 UTC
9 points
1 comment20 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2020

NunoSempere30 Apr 2020 16:41 UTC
22 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

Del­e­gate a Forecast

Amandango28 Jul 2020 17:43 UTC
44 points
25 comments2 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

FLI Pod­cast: On Su­perfore­cast­ing with Robert de Neufville

Palus Astra30 Apr 2020 23:08 UTC
6 points
0 comments52 min readLW link

Jan Bloch’s Im­pos­si­ble War

Slimepriestess17 Feb 2020 16:14 UTC
107 points
31 comments5 min readLW link
(hivewired.wordpress.com)

Atari early

KatjaGrace2 Apr 2020 6:10 UTC
86 points
4 comments5 min readLW link
(aiimpacts.org)

Ar­gu­ment, in­tu­ition, and recursion

paulfchristiano5 Mar 2018 1:37 UTC
42 points
13 comments9 min readLW link1 review

Seek Fair Ex­pec­ta­tions of Others’ Models

Zvi17 Oct 2017 14:30 UTC
60 points
17 comments9 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Don’t Con­di­tion on no Catastrophes

Scott Garrabrant21 Feb 2018 21:50 UTC
32 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Prob­lems in AI Align­ment that philoso­phers could po­ten­tially con­tribute to

Wei_Dai17 Aug 2019 17:38 UTC
75 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Rea­son­able Explanations

Alicorn16 Jun 2019 5:29 UTC
78 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2020.

NunoSempere1 Aug 2020 17:08 UTC
21 points
4 comments22 min readLW link

After crit­i­cal event W hap­pens, they still won’t be­lieve you

Eliezer Yudkowsky13 Jun 2013 21:59 UTC
77 points
107 comments3 min readLW link

Ab­sur­dity Heuris­tic, Ab­sur­dity Bias

Eliezer Yudkowsky5 Sep 2007 3:20 UTC
51 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

SlateS­tarCodex 2020 Pre­dic­tions: Buy, Sell, Hold

Zvi1 May 2020 14:30 UTC
53 points
15 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Cri­tique my Model: The EV of AGI to Selfish Individuals

ozziegooen8 Apr 2018 20:04 UTC
19 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tionBook.com—Track your calibration

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Oct 2009 0:08 UTC
41 points
53 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] His­tor­i­cal fore­cast­ing: Are there ways I can get lots of data, but only up to a cer­tain date?

Eli Tyre21 Nov 2019 17:16 UTC
38 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Kurzweil’s pre­dic­tions: good ac­cu­racy, poor self-calibration

Stuart_Armstrong11 Jul 2012 9:55 UTC
50 points
39 comments9 min readLW link

Kah­ne­man’s Plan­ning Anecdote

Eliezer Yudkowsky17 Sep 2007 16:39 UTC
36 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Ra­tion­al­ity Is Not Sys­tem­atized Winning

namespace11 Nov 2018 22:05 UTC
36 points
20 comments1 min readLW link
(www.thelastrationalist.com)

The File Drawer Effect and Con­for­mity Bias (Elec­tion Edi­tion)

Salemicus8 May 2015 16:51 UTC
48 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

Rais­ing the fore­cast­ing wa­ter­line (part 1)

Morendil9 Oct 2012 15:49 UTC
51 points
106 comments6 min readLW link

[LINK] Get paid to train your rationality

XFrequentist3 Aug 2011 15:01 UTC
40 points
55 comments3 min readLW link

Against easy su­per­in­tel­li­gence: the un­fore­seen fric­tion argument

Stuart_Armstrong10 Jul 2013 13:47 UTC
39 points
48 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] How can guessti­mates work?

jacobjacob10 Jul 2019 19:33 UTC
24 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Knigh­tian un­cer­tainty in a Bayesian framework

So8res24 Jul 2014 14:31 UTC
47 points
2 comments11 min readLW link

A thought-pro­cess test­ing opportunity

[deleted]22 Apr 2013 19:51 UTC
46 points
28 comments1 min readLW link

Over­con­fi­dent Pessimism

lukeprog24 Nov 2012 0:47 UTC
37 points
38 comments4 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tive Rea­son­ing Systems

ozziegooen20 Feb 2019 19:44 UTC
26 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What to make of Aubrey de Grey’s pre­dic­tion?

Rafael Harth28 Feb 2020 19:25 UTC
23 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

I Started a Sports and Gam­bling Substack

Zvi25 Aug 2020 21:30 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

In­tro­duc­tion to fore­cast­ing work­sheet

edoarad6 May 2020 13:54 UTC
12 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.foretold.io)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2020.

NunoSempere1 Sep 2020 11:38 UTC
16 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

[Question] Do bond yield curve in­ver­sions re­ally in­di­cate there is likely to be a re­ces­sion?

bgold10 Jul 2019 1:23 UTC
20 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

How to reach 80% of your goals. Ex­actly 80%.

Stuckwork10 Oct 2020 17:33 UTC
31 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Separat­ing the roles of the­ory and di­rect em­piri­cal ev­i­dence in be­lief for­ma­tion: the ex­am­ples of min­i­mum wage and an­thro­pogenic global warming

VipulNaik25 Jun 2014 21:47 UTC
38 points
66 comments4 min readLW link

In­trade and the Dow Drop

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Oct 2008 3:12 UTC
4 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Models pre­dict­ing sig­nifi­cant vi­o­lence in the US?

kdbscott25 Oct 2020 18:45 UTC
54 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

A prior for tech­nolog­i­cal discontinuities

NunoSempere13 Oct 2020 16:51 UTC
70 points
17 comments6 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tIt: Pres­i­den­tial Mar­ket is In­creas­ingly Wrong

Zvi18 Oct 2020 22:40 UTC
37 points
28 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Bet­ting Thread

Amandango20 Oct 2020 2:17 UTC
33 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Bet On Biden

sapphire17 Oct 2020 22:03 UTC
38 points
89 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Septem­ber 2020.

NunoSempere1 Oct 2020 11:00 UTC
21 points
3 comments11 min readLW link

[AN #121]: Fore­cast­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI timelines us­ing biolog­i­cal anchors

Rohin Shah14 Oct 2020 17:20 UTC
27 points
5 comments14 min readLW link
(mailchi.mp)

Ad­just­ing prob­a­bil­ities for the pas­sage of time, us­ing Squiggle

NunoSempere23 Oct 2020 18:55 UTC
17 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What fea­tures would you like a pre­dic­tion plat­form to have?

Mati_Roy13 Oct 2020 0:48 UTC
10 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Does play­ing hard to get work? AB test­ing for romance

amplemaple26 Oct 2020 15:29 UTC
16 points
26 comments5 min readLW link

Dis­ap­point­ment in the Future

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Dec 2008 4:45 UTC
15 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion should be a sport

chaosmage10 Aug 2017 7:55 UTC
21 points
21 comments2 min readLW link

Dialec­ti­cal Bootstrapping

Johnicholas13 Mar 2009 17:10 UTC
22 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Gen­er­al­ize Kelly to Ac­count for # Iter­a­tions?

abramdemski2 Nov 2020 16:36 UTC
24 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

In­vest­ing for the Long Slump

Eliezer Yudkowsky22 Jan 2009 8:56 UTC
11 points
54 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are good ML/​AI re­lated pre­dic­tion /​ cal­ibra­tion ques­tions for 2019?

james_t4 Jan 2019 2:40 UTC
19 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Wrong Tomorrow

Eliezer Yudkowsky2 Apr 2009 8:18 UTC
10 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Scor­ing 2020 U.S. Pres­i­den­tial Elec­tion Predictions

Zack_M_Davis8 Nov 2020 2:28 UTC
38 points
7 comments4 min readLW link
(zackmdavis.net)

Pre­dic­tions made by Mati Roy in early 2020

Mati_Roy21 Nov 2020 3:24 UTC
23 points
7 comments16 min readLW link

Au­tomat­ing rea­son­ing about the fu­ture at Ought

jungofthewon9 Nov 2020 21:51 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(ought.org)

[Question] Is there a.. more ex­act.. way of scor­ing a pre­dic­tor’s cal­ibra­tion?

mako yass16 Jan 2019 8:19 UTC
20 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Pro­gram­matic Pre­dic­tion markets

whpearson25 Apr 2009 9:29 UTC
7 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tionBook: A Short Note

Jayson_Virissimo10 Nov 2011 15:10 UTC
30 points
38 comments2 min readLW link

SETI Predictions

hippke30 Nov 2020 20:09 UTC
23 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing is a responsibility

AllAmericanBreakfast5 Dec 2020 0:40 UTC
23 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

The New Nostradamus

Kaj_Sotala12 Sep 2009 14:42 UTC
21 points
27 comments4 min readLW link

An overview of fore­cast­ing for poli­tics, con­flict, and poli­ti­cal violence

VipulNaik24 Jun 2014 22:10 UTC
10 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Crowd-Fore­cast­ing Covid-19

nikos31 Dec 2020 19:30 UTC
17 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Against but­terfly effect

ForensicOceanography9 Feb 2021 7:46 UTC
5 points
10 comments1 min readLW link
(forensicoceanography.wordpress.com)

Chaotic era: avoid or sur­vive?

Just Learning22 Feb 2021 1:34 UTC
3 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2021

NunoSempere1 Mar 2021 21:51 UTC
13 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­ing Metafore­cast: A Fore­cast Ag­gre­ga­tor and Search Tool

7 Mar 2021 19:03 UTC
82 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] How do you es­ti­mate how much you’re go­ing to like some­thing?

CTVKenney14 Mar 2021 2:33 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Data on fore­cast­ing ac­cu­racy across differ­ent time hori­zons and lev­els of fore­caster experience

CharlesD27 May 2021 18:53 UTC
25 points
0 comments23 min readLW link

An­nounc­ing the Nu­clear Risk Fore­cast­ing Tournament

MichaelA16 Jun 2021 16:16 UTC
16 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

An ex­am­i­na­tion of Me­tac­u­lus’ re­solved AI pre­dic­tions and their im­pli­ca­tions for AI timelines

CharlesD20 Jul 2021 9:08 UTC
28 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

The Walk­ing Dead

Logan Zoellner22 Jul 2021 16:19 UTC
22 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Metafore­cast up­date: Bet­ter search, cap­ture func­tion­al­ity, more plat­forms.

NunoSempere16 Aug 2021 18:31 UTC
35 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

How does fore­cast quan­tity im­pact fore­cast qual­ity on Me­tac­u­lus?

CharlesD1 Oct 2021 19:09 UTC
8 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

A Frame­work of Pre­dic­tion Technologies

isaduan3 Oct 2021 10:26 UTC
8 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

AI Pre­dic­tion Ser­vices and Risks of War

isaduan3 Oct 2021 10:26 UTC
3 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

Pos­si­ble Wor­lds af­ter Pre­dic­tion Take-off

isaduan3 Oct 2021 10:26 UTC
5 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus is seek­ing An­a­lyt­i­cal Sto­ry­tel­lers to write es­says for­tified with testable predictions

ChristianWilliams6 Oct 2021 4:44 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Com­mon Prob­a­bil­ity Distributions

jsteinhardt2 Dec 2021 1:50 UTC
44 points
3 comments5 min readLW link
(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

Pro­ject­ing com­pute trends in Ma­chine Learning

7 Mar 2022 15:32 UTC
59 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

My mis­take about the war in Ukraine

Ege Erdil25 Mar 2022 23:04 UTC
40 points
35 comments3 min readLW link

Sums and products

27 Mar 2022 21:57 UTC
23 points
11 comments12 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Tak­ing Good Heart To­kens Se­ri­ously, So Help Me God

Jackson Wagner1 Apr 2022 23:29 UTC
33 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

Op­ti­miz­ing crop plant­ing with mixed in­te­ger lin­ear pro­gram­ming in Stardew Valley

hapanin5 Apr 2022 18:42 UTC
28 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

Pre­dict­ing a global catas­tro­phe: the Ukrainian model

RomanS7 Apr 2022 12:06 UTC
5 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Syn­thetic Me­dia and The Fu­ture of Film

ifalpha24 May 2022 5:54 UTC
35 points
13 comments8 min readLW link

No­tion tem­plate for per­sonal predictions

Arjun Yadav30 May 2022 17:47 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Fore­casts are not enough

Ege Erdil30 Jun 2022 22:00 UTC
38 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus is seek­ing ex­pe­rienced lead­ers, re­searchers & op­er­a­tors for high-im­pact roles

ChristianWilliams10 Jul 2022 14:27 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(apply.workable.com)

Mar­burg Virus Pan­demic Pre­dic­tion Checklist

AllAmericanBreakfast18 Jul 2022 23:15 UTC
29 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Wanted: No­ta­tion for credal resilience

PeterH31 Jul 2022 7:35 UTC
18 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus and medians

rossry6 Aug 2022 3:34 UTC
18 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

AI strat­egy nearcasting

HoldenKarnofsky25 Aug 2022 17:26 UTC
79 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

An­nual AGI Bench­mark­ing Event

Lawrence Phillips27 Aug 2022 0:06 UTC
24 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Agency en­g­ineer­ing: is AI-al­ign­ment “to hu­man in­tent” enough?

catubc2 Sep 2022 18:14 UTC
9 points
10 comments6 min readLW link

Dan Luu on Fu­tur­ist Predictions

RobertM14 Sep 2022 3:01 UTC
50 points
9 comments5 min readLW link
(danluu.com)

$13,000 of prizes for chang­ing our mind about who to fund (Clearer Think­ing Re­grants Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ment)

spencerg20 Sep 2022 16:06 UTC
12 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(manifold.markets)

Cli­mate-con­tin­gent Fi­nance, and A Gen­er­al­ized Mechanism for X-Risk Re­duc­tion Financing

John Nay26 Sep 2022 13:23 UTC
0 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Against the weird­ness heuristic

Eleni Angelou2 Oct 2022 19:41 UTC
17 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Wanna bet?

ThomasJ9 Oct 2022 21:26 UTC
4 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches the ‘Fore­cast­ing Our World In Data’ Pro­ject to Probe the Long-Term Future

ChristianWilliams14 Oct 2022 17:00 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus is seek­ing Soft­ware Engineers

dschwarz5 Nov 2022 0:42 UTC
18 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(apply.workable.com)

Cog­ni­tive sci­ence and failed AI fore­casts

Eleni Angelou24 Nov 2022 21:02 UTC
0 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Hu­man-level Di­plo­macy was my fire alarm

Lao Mein23 Nov 2022 10:05 UTC
50 points
15 comments3 min readLW link