No current plans, and not sure if it should have music at all. But it’s good to know we can reach out to you if that becomes important; appreciate you letting us know!
Jonas V
Karma: 1,458
Help the AI 2027 team make an online AGI wargame
Some people downvoted / disagree-voted. I’m very curious what you disagree with!
Wasn’t aware of that piece, thanks!
Yeah, good point. Edited the title to say “good taste in projects / priorities”
Jonas V’s Shortform
Some musings on what makes good taste in projects / priorities
(Copy-pasting and lightly editing an off-the-cuff Slack message that I originally wrote in the context of investments / trading)
Some people have really good taste (in research, startups, career priorities, investment ideas, etc.). E.g. not chasing after current trends but instead building something truly novel. I’ve been trying to cultivate good taste and I think I’m decent at it, but others are substantially better than me.
Examples of bad taste (most of these are examples that I consider my own mistakes): founding undifferentiated SaaS startups, shallow EA movement building programs, fundraising from poker pros (regcharity.org), buying BTC because it vaguely looks cheap (I did this in 2021), shorting overvalued meme stocks without a clear story for information advantage (my RGTI/QUBT put spread trades), or market-making in illiquid secondaries where you have an information disadvantage.
Examples of good taste: founding Tesla, founding Cradle, investing in Anthropic Series A, Atlas Fellowship, AI 2027, the Covid short.
Taste is by definition hard to grasp, but here are some prompts:
1) a year later, will this look like the genius move of the week/year? (will I feel great about how I spent that part of my life?)
2) if it succeeds, will I be proud to tell my peers about it, or will it look like dumb luck? if it fails, will I be proud to tell my peers about it (will it look like an excellent bet that didn’t pan out)?
3) if someone told me they’re doing this, would I think they’re a genius or an idiot (accounting for the fact that genius ideas sometimes look dumb at first glance)?
4) does it build towards something big and exciting and revolutionary?
5) how would I feel telling someone really impressive/smart/successful about it? (e.g. [insert your intellectual heroes here])
Nitpick:
although some of these reviewers only saw bits of it.
Gary Marcus was shared the full draft including all the background research / forecast drafts. So it would be more accurate to say “only read bits of it”.
AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like
Yeah, you will get much better fills if you walk your options limit orders (manually or automatically, see here for an example of an automatic implementation: https://www.schwab.com/content/how-to-place-walk-limit-order). Market makers will often fill your nearly-mid-market limit orders within seconds.
I own lots of SPY/SPX calls and agree with this perspective. I think QQQ calls also look pretty good (and have done great over the last year).
My most recent forecasts:
Predict 2025 AI capabilities (by Sunday)
OpenAI didn’t say what the light blue bar is
Presumably light blue is o3 high, and dark blue is o3 low?
If you’re launching an AI safety startup, reach out to me; Polaris Ventures (which I’m on the board of) may be interested, and I can potentially introduce you to other VCs and investors.
Makes sense! And yeah, IDK, I think the concept of ‘measure’ is pretty confusing itself and not super convincing to me, but if you think through the alternatives, they seem even less satisfying.
That leads you to always risk your life if there’s a slight chance it’ll make you feel better … Right? E.g. 2% death, 98% not just totally fine but actually happy, etc., all the way to 99.99% death, 0.01% super duper happy
I did some research and the top ones I found were SMH and QQQ.
I’m not sure what (if any) action-relevant point you might be making. If this is supposed to make you less concerned about death, I’d point out that the thing to care about is your measure (as in quantum immortality), which is still greatly reduced.
Under the status quo, it’s pretty hard for private individuals to acquire significant shares in AGI companies; a key step towards realizing OGI would be to require AGI companies to be listed publicly.