Great post!
| Manifold markets that were resolved after GPT-4’s current knowledge cutoff of Jan 1, 2022
Were you able to verify that newer knowledge didn’t bleed in? Anecdotally GPT-4 can report various different cutoff dates, depending on the API. And there is anecdotal evidence that GPT-4-0314 occasionally knows about major world events after its training window, presumably from RLHF?
This could explain the better scores on politics than science.
(Responded to the version of this on the EA Forum post.)