I spent some time. I do not see the smoking gun. Can you post more details or links?
I think they are basically epistemic security theater.
I do not know of any safe to do this. If you are found out you risk losing money if they freeze your account. This bet looks a lot worse if you are risking your account when you get found out. If you have outside friends who trust you maybe they will ‘bet for you’.
There are some offshore sites taking American bets. You can also place bets online legally if you are in NJ (I think).
Depends on where you bet. If you are in the right country you can make a lot of money if Biden is 70% to win. I emphasized predictit because I believe most people on lesswrong are in the USA.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y8RWtNBiksbSzm9j4/bet-on-biden?commentId=ENYJswSZy2DgrntEh seems like an ok guess.
I have a much higher confidence in this being a good bet than in any particular theory of why people are betting on Trump.
If you have BTC lying around and trust mybookie you can get 1K free if you wager enough. Getting 1K free on top of 10K is a lot of value. The site is a lot worse without BTC.
Its only 16 days from the election. I am not so worried about the time value of money.
Do you know if mybookie is legit. They are offering a ridiculous 1K signup bonus if you use crypto (you have to bet about 10K as I understand it to get the money out). The odds are worse than offshore sites but that is a lot of free value on top of an amazing bet.
The site is way crappier if you are not using BTC for various reasons.
Obviously, we agree on the fundamentals. But what exactly is the argument for waiting? Maybe polls will get closer?
Bet 100% of your upcoming charitable donations. Even if you are loss averse the charities are not. Donate the winnings if the bet pays off.
Have you actually tried checking with anyone resembling a ‘pro bettor’? I predict the majority of them would say the bet is in fact attractive and you should put money on Biden. I see one person in the thread who is known for regularly making money betting on things other than stocks (Zvi). He said ‘yes the odds are insane at this point’.
Terms are actually better right now outside of Predictit but Americans cannot legally use those. I have not look into all the options for getting millions into the markets (I do not have that kind of money). But you can certainly bet hundreds of thousands of USD easily if you are not American. This seems more than sufficient to be attractive to pro bettors. The things you list in parenthesis do not explain the current situation.
Yes. I was clear in the OP Predictit is a worse deal depending on your tax situation. If you cannot deduct losses things look much worse. But many people either have low incomes or already deduct.
Betting on international sites should be profitable regardless of tax status since the returns are much better.
I would say Biden is conservatively 80% to win from here. Polls are incredibly good. The election is in sixteen days. When I made the thread you could get Biden for 0.65.
You need to pay 3.5 cents tax on winnings if you buy at 0.65. There is also a 5% withdrawal tax. So if you win you get (100/0.65)(0.965)(0.95)(0.8) = 112.8 . 12.8% returns in 16 days is nothing to laugh at. You are still getting almost 6% expected returns if you think Biden is only 75% to win. This all assumes you immediately withdraw your winnings from Predictit which is obviously bad for your expected value.
If you are not in the US you can both get better odds than 0.65 and you don’t have to pay the insane rake.
Anyone who thinks that betting market prices are rational will not bet on them. Why would you tie up your capital (even for a few weeks) and pay fees if the prices are fair?
I would encourage you to bet on other things too if you think you have a big edge. It is not obvious to me there are any better bets available at this moment.
538 had reasonable odds in 2016 imo. 27% chances happen.
Bookies/Sites offer odds based on how much money is on both sides.
Metaculus prediction dropped to 2033 after gpt-3. So some people adjacent to the community think that your logic leads to the right conclusion.
Thanks. Fine by me.
Keep in mind you are not getting the same terms as the investors. And the valuation is based on the terms the recent investors got. See more details: https://www.benkuhn.net/terms/