Farmed animals are currently inside a non-extinction X-risk.
sapphire
Karma: 2,043
My current allocation to AI is split something like this:
AMAT 4.25 AMD 3.55 ANET 4.30 ASML 8.07 CDNS 4.04 GFS 1.28 GM 1.84 GOOG 7.90 INTC 6.17 KLAC 2.33 LLY 2.88 LRCX 4.62 MRVL 1.87 MSFT 14.65 MSFT Calls 2.78 MU 4.38 ONTO 0.24 RMBS 1.00 SMSN 7.88 SNPS 2.77 TSM 10.45 TXN 2.74
I recommend sgov for getting safe interest. It effectively just invests in short term treasuries for you. very simple and straightforward. Easier than buying bonds yourself. I do not think 100 percent or more equities is a good idea right now given that we might get more rate increases. Obviously do not buy long term bonds. Im not a prophet just saying how I am handling things
I have supported myself for almost a decade now via speculation / gambling / arbitrage. I almost never find the Kelly criterion all that useful in my own life. If a bet is really juicy go as hard as you can while finding the downside tolerable. If a bet isn’t QUITE JUICY I usually pass.
All things arise and all things pass away.
Where do you live in Ohio? In columbus poly isnt very taboo ime living in cbus. But Columbus is the biggest city.
Multi, aren’t you a fellow leftist? Why did you summon these demons.
This is a specific claim about what specific people should do
CEA!
Every retrospective I know of has shown them to do a terrible job. Note the failures are not even obviously ideological. They have protected the normal sort of abuser. But they also protected Kathy Forth who was a serial false accuser (yes they banned her from some events but she was still active in EA spaces until her suicide).
For at least five I have been telling victims* that there is no obvious advice on what they should do. But that they should absolutely avoid any formal community process. In particular totally avoid the community health team.
I assume the community health team is mostly or entirely staffed by good well intentioned people. But I have personally treated it as way too corrupt in function. Whenever someone from the community health team messages me I just ignore them. Once you think an institution is corrupt the SAFEST response is to minimize contact. By contrast im happy to discuss community issues, which I have non-trivially often ended up involved in, with seemingly well intentioned normal community members.
Official dispute processes tend to get captured by people who are either overt bad actors or, more commonly, just very internally aligned with power/status/money. You should not trust these processes in general. But especially do not trust them in the rationality community.
*technically people claiming to me to be victims, afaik in all cases these are the same thing)
Weight maintenance system I use and recommend:
1 - Weigh yourself daily right in the morning
2 - Have a narrow target band. IE 140-142 inclusive.
3 - If you are below the band eat something decadent. Maybe cake or ice cream!
4 - If below eat super low cal but have fun! Only fresh fruit day is dope!!!
I truly. truly appreciate reading this.
I would wire you guys 300-400K today if I wasn’t still worried about the theory that ‘AI Safety is actually a front for funding advancement of AI capabilities’. It is a quixotic task to figure out how true that theory is or what actually happened in the past, neverminded why. But the theory seems at least kind of true to me and so I will not be donating.
Its unlikely to be worth your time to try to convince me to donate. But maybe other potential donors would appreciate a reassurance its not actively net-negative to donate. For example several people mentioned in the post have ties to dangerous organizations such as Anthropic.
Meta-honesty: There is not enough values alignment to trust me with sensitive information and I definitely do not endorse ‘always keep secrets you agreed to keep’. I support leaking the pentagon papers, etc.
FOUR ORIENTATIONS TOWARD LOVE
There is an emotion. It is something like ‘the joy of connection’. Its the emotion that can make just sitting near a friend fun. Or hearing about their day. People definitely vary in how much they feel this emotion by default.lets call this emotionC
Honestly emotionC + ‘sexual interest’ explains most of what almost everyone means by romance. But this has been, for various reasons, logical and historical, to have gotten quite confused.There are really FOUR main ways people orient toward this situation:
1) TRAD solution: More or less everyone is assumed straight in the uhhh ways that ‘matter’. Of course we have something like enforced monogamy. But you are totally permitted to feel emotionC as strongly as you want toward same sex friends. ‘Strongly as you want’ is meant quite literally, many things modern people would consider literal love poetry are allowed. Arbitrary amounts of loyalty toward your bros is allowed too. In some contexts you are allowed to fuck same sex friends. Bans on fucking same sex people are not really a breach of mono so much as ‘may or may not be considered too icky to be allowed’. By definition same sex stuff is not romantic. EmotionC towards your wife/husband is considered great but supergatory. Married partners have different obligations toward each other and their children but emotionC surely isn’t mandatory.
This was hugely dominant for most of history and is basically where a lot of ideas on romance actually come from. In some ways it actually works fine. but of course its part of a very harmful overall trad memeplex. And its extremely homophobic and stuff. But it actually genuinely does have its appeals. Its certainly not dead.More or less in reaction to the TRAD SOLUTION you get the LIB SOLUTION. Im trying to be supportive of everyone but of course I have the least affinity for the one I named lib.
2) The LIB SOLUTION more or less accepts most of the logic of the trad solution. But it gets rid of the homophobia and blatant sexism and stuff. On net this is probably fine but uhh it really causes some insane neurosis. The truest of trad boys think women are idiots anyway so there aren’t gonna really ‘fall in emotionC’ with a girl anyway. Besides under true trad men and women have very different lives and social spheres. Well under libdom they don’t have very separate lives so your partner is gonna meet lots of opposite sex people they might be interested in. Situation is even worse if people are queer. This again has its charms but its where you get stuff like ‘emotional infidelity’ memes. Its definitely a cause of LOTS of people only actually being friends with their marriage partner as they age. Its also worth noting that if you add a little ‘LIB’ to the TRAD solution you arguably make the trad solution worse. This is why the reactionary boys get so mad about ‘gays make boys holding hands unacceptable’ or whatever.
3) well after lib you get to LEFTY SOLUTION
The LEFTY SOLUTION is to basically insist on ‘you can only have totally unrestricted sex and emotionC with one person’. Definitely cannot openly date others. But we are going to be fairly flexible. Exactly one person gets very storng commitment, relationship escalator, strong (but not infinite or lexical) prioritization. Conditional on the prior rules, other people can get extremely high amounts of emotionC. And some amount of sexual flexibility is often involved (varies).
the LEFTY sOLUTION more or less works but like many lefty solutions its not exactly the most autism friendly. Lots of stuff is sort of handled indirectly. At some point its gets ridiculous to not call some relationships romantic, and they are tolerated, but only if not too overt. One can be like mega autist and do this more blatantly but it gets harder to do this the less idk ‘tact’ you add. This is basically what I would recommend most people tbh. But follow the system and dont be too overt and blatant about everything. Use some tact and emotional intelligence if you are gonna go with this tech.
4) Well COMMUNISM, as always, is simple and pure. Just allow totally unrestricted intimacy and sex.
Well that works great for some people and it is SIMPLE LOGICAL PURE and MAXIMUM LOVE. It does have a bit of a problem though. Most people like stability. Under communist norms there is no possible way to prevent, or even discourage, your ‘life partner’ from deciding they actually prefer to spend more or their time with someone else. Or they want to live with someone else. In truly hellish cases maybe they move away from you! Its especially funny to call this communism because a true believer in communism would say ‘well maybe people cannot tolerate this now, but that’s just because they live in a toxic society that indoctrinated them with shitty memes. If they just read enough theory and live under better conditions they will love communism’. Well Im a true believer in my heart but if you aren’t already a NEW SOVIET MAN/GIRL/ENBY this might be a bridge too far.
Note I did not know this when I decided to be poly. I chose purely based on ‘idk communist solutions sounds like MAX LOVE’ and im a believer in love.
Note one can try to patch communism by insisting on idk primary/secondary and stuff. But this destroys the logic and empirically is very unpleasant. Its EXTREMELY important not to end up doing de facto LEFTY as a compromise between communism and LIB. Total nightmare.
My honest opinion is that Ziz got several friends of mine killed. So i dont exactly have a high opinion of her. But I have never heard of Ziz referring to themselves as LaSota. Its honestly toxic not to use people’s preferred names. Its especially toxic if they are trans but the issue isn’t restricted to trans people. So Id strongly prefer people refer to Ziz as Ziz.
Anthropic is further accelerating the Arms Race?
FWIW this is around the amount of progress I was expecting in 2016. For better or worse I updated very hard toward very short timelines once alphago was released in 2015. Amusingly at the time I figured we had 10-20 years until strong AGI, which gives an average of 2030. I prefer to say strong AGI since as far as I’m concerned publicly available AGI was released in late 2022.
Arguably EA/Rationality needed much simpler and less nuanced messaging on how to deal with aI capabilities companies. We really should have gone with ‘absolutely do not help or work for companies increasing ai capabilities. Only work directly on safety.’ Nuance is cool and all but the nuanced messaging arguably just ended up enabling Anthropic and OpenAI.
You can buy GDR common shares via LSE on Interactive Brokers.