The people who make ad blockers have improved my life enormously. It’s worth noting Facebook timeline ads are not particularly annoying. Maybe forcing sites to mask their ads as content is a good thing.
It only assumes there are a lot of domains in which you would be happy to make progress. In addition success is at least somewhat fungible across domains. And it is much easier to cut red tape once you already resources and a track record (possibly in a different domain).
Don’t start out in a red-tape domain unless you are ready to fight off the people trying to slow you down. This requires a lot of money, connections, and lawyers and you still might lose. Put your talents to work in an easier domain, at least to start.
If you are a smart person I suggest working in domains where the regulators have not yet shut down progress. In many domains, if you want to make progress most of your obstacles are going to be other humans. It is refreshingly easy to make progress if you only have to face the ice.
Everyone shits on younger people (say 14-22). But the younger people I interact with have a lot of great ideas and good perspectives. I am always happy to have a chance to learn from them. Why so much hate?
Crypto is not doing the hottest. But another part of the story is BTC is losing dominance. Though who knows what is about to happen.
Use Authy, not Google authenticator. GA not supporting any sort of backups is a huge problem.
The magnitudes are much smaller on both sides of a recent situation. My father died three weeks ago. The family somehow ended up spending over 40K on death expenses (funeral, mausoleum slot, flowers, etc). My mom ended up spending six hundred and fifty dollars on a single rose arrangement in the shape of a big heart. The time to convince my family of effective altruism is not right after my father died. But I found spending so much money on a dead man, or more charitably expensive rites for the living, horrifying to see up close. Six hundred and fifty dollars is around the average monthly salary in Kenya. We could have really helped someone out sending that money overseas. Never mind what forty thousand dollars could have been used for.
Years of accumulated experience and metis point the other way, at least for this audience. Anyone who has spent time in rationalist or rationalist adjacent spaces knows that a huge percentage of rationalists* are trans. After many years of being an active rationalist* I literally know dozens of trans people in or adjacent to the community. If a rationalist is struggling with whether to transition they should try transitioning. A huge number of rationalists think trying hormones was the best decision they ever made, very few seriously regret it. If a rationalist tries transitioning I strongly predict they will think it was a good decision. Though there are some people who have regrets the expected value is very good.
I will note that the people who do best don’t get too preoccupied with philosophical debates about the true nature of transition. The extremely simplistic ideas like ‘transwomen are women, transmen are men’** do great however. Rationalists who give transition a real shot are usually happy they did so. Taking HRT for a month or two is mostly reversible but you don’t have a time machine. You cannot get back the years you spent miserable.
*For simplicity, I am just going to say rationalist. But I am including anyone active in spaces adjacent to the community such as effective altruism. I am not going to count people who are only weakly involved, for example, they just read SSC.
**No intent to erase non-binary people!
The coronavirus response has been so bad I no longer doubt many Sci-Fi premises. Before I often said to myself “you have tech that can do X and you still have problem Y. Ridiculous!”. But apparently, we can make a coronavirus vaccine in two days. But we still had over a year of lockdowns and millions of deaths. One in six hundred people in the USA have died of the virus but we blocked a vaccine because one in a million people who take it MIGHT develop treatable blood clots.
My standards for ‘realistic’ dysfunction have gotten a lot lower.
There are several groups now because people wanted to keep some topics seperated. Sadly I don’t think any of them are open to the public.
Which epistemic values? I am posting these trades in public (not always on lesswrong itself but in adjacent spaces which are easy enough to check if needed). If they blow up I will suffer the reputational consequences. The inverse should occur if they work out well. Do you want to bet on whether FTX.com losses a substantial amount of user funds in the next year? What odds do you give?
The opportunities don’t seem gone to me. Though I doubt we see anything as good as 2011 bitcoin. Many rationalists bought Solana around January 7th when it unlocks. I posted about this on the EA investing group in early January (before the unlock). It is up more than 10x. That’s not 250x but it’s something. The arbitrage opportunities I discuss are live right now.
You claim there are these huge counterparty risks but you have no presented any data substantiating your claims. I would estimate the expected loss rate in decentralized finance is probably between 1.6%-2.75% yearly. This is based on actual empirical data. The loss on a centralized is dramatically lower. Probably a tenth of that. Exchanges do not commonly lose user funds. They have been safe for many years. You should be more concerned with getting hacked than with counterparty risk from a Cefi exchange. As I said before the risks would have to be quite large not just present to compensate for the returns. I see no evidence that they are.
I believe scholarship is one of the twelve virtues. Please teach me this value. Please show me some kind of credible analysis that counterparty risks are extremely high (as in 10%+ a year)? Many people I know will be very interested if you can. I will share your findings with many interested parties.
1 - The historical returns would obviously have been ludicrously high. I assume advice will be worse going forward. There has not been all that much investing advice on lesswrong and some of it was to buy crypto relatively early. If some of your investments 200-2000x you don’t need to be right about much else. And it is not like all the other advice would have gone terribly. Tech stocks are doing great. Some of the advice was also boring stuff like ‘buy index funds’. Do you think there are hundreds of examples of investment ideas on lesswrong that went to near zero? Which examples are you thinking of? Why do you think the normal investment ideas even underperformed the S&P500 (or whatever your favorite index is).
2 - It does not seem like a ‘really hard problem’ to me. I don’t think I am especially talented. I know many rationalists who are doing much better than I am. The reason you are hearing from me is that I am the one willing to break the norm against posting such threads. Now is an unusually easy time to make money but rationalists are also making good money on things like prediction markets. If someone is a smart rationalist it seems to me they can pretty reliably find a way to ‘beat the market’.
It’s worth noting that I talk to many people who are actually professionals. They agree the trades I discuss are good. I agree it is a hard problem for most people. But the idea that good rationalists cannot make money trading part-time seems based purely on theory. Experience, over quite some time in many cases, begs to differ.
I also disagree with the framing. In many cases the community agreed the advice was good but just failed to act!
A good friend of mine, who I know is making absurd returns on altcoins, is still bummed about that losing his entire investment on that options trade. Losing 100% is pretty demoralizing I guess.
That is not a similar situation. In the AI situation, your risks obviously increase over time.
If you are trying to get people into an investment don’t mention the price you got in at. Mentioning it just makes them less likely to buy-in. They don’t have a time machine so they don’t need to know. What matters is why you think the current price is too low.
It is not a serious problem if your epistemology gives you the wrong answer in extremely unlikely worlds (ie ones where you survived 1000 rounds of Russian Roulette). Don’t optimize for extremely unlikely scenarios.
I agree and recommend this trade here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MSpfFBCQYw3YA8kMC/violating-the-emh-prediction-markets