Crypto started off like 5% of my portfolio. Now it is like 70%. I have actually been selling crypto lol.
Multiple houses did this sort of thing.
There was also an enormous amount of social pressure to be extremely covid cautious. It was really over the top given the community demographics (very young!). This is part of the reason I recently left the Bay community.
I disagree with your interpretation of what happened with respect to talent constraints. In addition, I have a meta-critique. In your hypothetical people talk about ‘talent constraints’ without citing any articles. But you don’t cite any articles either!
I think quite a lot of the basis for ’EA is talent constrained came from the 80K hours surveys. 2017 2018. Both surveys were quite detailed and cannot be quickly summarized. But the 2017 report literally says the following:
On a 0-4 scale EA organisations viewed themselves as 2.5 ‘talent constrained’ and 1.2 ‘funding constrained’, suggesting hiring remains the more significant limiting factor, though funding still does limit some.
‘EA is talent constrained’ was definitely not just a mistranslation, the explicit concept of ‘talent constrained’ vs ‘funding constrained’ was used on official surveys as recently as 2017. The surveys also make it clear that organizations considered keeping their recent hires to be worth seemingly incredible amounts of money. They were asked:
For a typical recent Senior/Junior hire, how much financial compensation would you need to receive today, to make you indifferent about that person having to stop working for you or anyone for the next 3 years?
Responses in 2017 and 2018 respectively for Senior/Junior hires:
Senior $8,200,000 $7,400,000.00Junior $1,300,000 $1,050,000
80k Hours explicitly agrees the surveys were misleading for many readers and they will try to do better in the future. So there is no need to harp on them. But the meta point seems important here.
That does not seem like very strong evidence his bets on the 2020 election were good. He did better than people who refused to bet at all. But he did worse than people who just bet on Biden. Many people figured out the Biden bet in the poker and gambling communities. You should certainly downgrade your opinion of RJ relative to people who did a lot better.
Many people including myself got way better percentage and absolute returns on the election. He was way too optimistic.
What do you think of this article by Holden: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gTaDDJFDzqe7jnTWG/some-thoughts-on-public-discourse
Holden seems rather concerned with PR to me. The article explicitly supports your claim that ‘PR concerns’ push people towards not communicating at all. But it seems like Holden has quite good reasons to communicate less openly.
To be honest I am not sure what exactly is being advised. It seems important in many contexts to avoid angering the wrong people. Maintaining ‘good PR’ is a valuable instrumental goal. To what degree are you saying we should ignore these concerns? Do you think trying to be ‘honorable’ will suffice to avoid bad outcomes? Are you just saying to be marginally less concerned with PR? Do you think Open Phil should do things differently?
One of my biggest regrets is not focusing on making money when I was younger. There was a lot of money to be made, and it would have been really useful. Money is optionality and can be used to further many goals.
This advice would have gone really terribly for me. I have maintained a lot of friendships over time and I have been with the same primary partner for almost eight years now. But most of my previous life plans were really dumb. Thank goodness I did not commit to them!
A decent number of people get into polyamory due to the rationalist community. If someone got involved with polyamory thanks to the community and it went badly, I think it would be reasonable to write such a post. Especially if they would have done the opposite if things had gone well. I should note I myself am poly. There are definitely houses that have gone even worse than DT.
Also the most obvious to me example of ’good standing outside the bay → ‘got into a huge amount of trouble in the bay’ also had no connection to DT.
Bughouse Chess seems like an option. Bughouse is played on two boards. Pieces captured on one board can be placed on the other board. Bughouse is rather popular with strong chess players. Traditionally bughouse is played in teams of two. But nothing is stopping you from having one player play both of their boards. Given its popularity, it seems like an attractive option. Though you have to order the turns WhiteA, WhiteB, BlackB, BlackA.
You can significantly reduce draws in normal Chess by simplifying the rules and getting rid of ‘check’. Just swap to the clean win condition of ‘capture the opposing King’. In particular, this means all KIng+Pawn vs King endgames are won unless the friendly pawn and king are too far away. If KPvsK is winning a large number of other endgames are winning as well since they can be converted to KPvsK. It has other implications. For example, all normal Queen vs Pawn endgames are won unless the pawn immediately promotes.
It basically is a command. So maybe it’s a feature that the phrase feels commanding. Though it is a sort of ‘soft command’ in that you would accept a good excuse to not answer (like ‘I am too busy, I will explain later’).
I sent you a pm
Yeah, to get 20%+ you have to lever up. You can either use other investments on ftx as collateral to avoid liquidation (there are many attractive ones including copies of SPY) or you have to tolerate some liquidation threshold.
The US presidential election has already ended but for weeks since it concluded people outside the USA (and arguably inside the USA) have been able to bet on it. At this point, it is very clear that Trump will not become president. But you can still make 20%+ returns shorting ‘TRUMPFEB’ on FTX. As recently as the 24th you could make 30%+. These markets resolve on Feb 1st. This easily ‘beats the market’ even if you give Trump a 1% chance and accept some counter-party risk.
I can think of various other ways to easily get 10%+ returns in months in the crytpo markets. For example several crypto futures are extremely underpriced relative to the underlying coin. At this point, I am wondering why the EMH was ever held in such high regard on lesswrong. These markets have fairly high liquidity. You could have gotten in millions of dollars.
One common response is “If you are right why are you not amazingly rich?”. This seems to assume that being right means you can convince people to give you tons of capital to work with. It is unclear why ‘being right’ would get you rewarded in this way. Notably even if you post advice publicly and it works you do not magically get billions of dollars. For example, I told people to Bet on Biden. Joe Biden did win but I did not make millions off this. Grey enlightenment has been posting very good financial advice for years and is likely quite wealthy. But I predict he is not a billionaire and does not run a hedge fund. His long and very good track record does not magically cause him to have access to billions in capital to invest.
The real solution is to drop out unless you are clearly a superstar or you are extremely close to finishing your PHD. No need to deny the truth.
I say this as someone who wasted three years in a PHD program. Luckily I got out when I did before I wasted more years or started a postdoc. If you are not a superstar start planning your exit.
There are several alternatives available to US residents. If you are willing to bet using crypto you can get large sizes and much lower fees than predictit. If you did not make substantial amounts of money (relative to your net worth) from the US election you made a mistake.
dirac_x(A) is a function of A, x is fixed.