Adam B(jellyb)

• Adam B 26 Feb 2024 14:52 UTC

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: Eli Tyre’s comment on: Fate­book for Chrome: Make and em­bed fore­casts any­where on the web

  Here’s an alpha version of a Firefox version!

  If you run into any problems, it would be great to hear about them (e.g. by email).

Fate­book for Chrome: Make and em­bed fore­casts any­where on the web

• Adam B 16 Oct 2023 8:41 UTC

  11 points

  2

  on: RSPs are pauses done right

  most potentially dangerous capabilities should be highly correlated, such that measuring any of them should be okay. Thus, I think it should be fine to mostly focus on measuring the capabilities that are most salient to policymakers and most clearly demonstrate risks.

  Once labs are trying to pass capability evaluations, they will spend effort trying to suppress the specific capabilities being evaluated*, so I think we’d expect them to stop being so highly correlated.

  * If they try methods of more generally suppressing the kinds of capabilities that might be dangerous, I think they’re likely to test them most on the capabilities being evaluated by RSPs.

• Adam B 16 Aug 2023 15:24 UTC

  1 point

  0

  on: Quan­tified In­tu­itions: An epistemics train­ing web­site in­clud­ing a new EA-themed cal­ibra­tion app

  We’ve added a new deck of questions to the calibration training app—The World, then and now.

  What was the world like 200 years ago, and how has it changed? Featuring charts from Our World in Data.

  Thanks to Johanna Einsiedler and Jakob Graabak for helping build this deck!

  We’ve also split the existing questions into decks, so you can focus on the topics you’re most interested in:

  

• Adam B 28 Jul 2023 18:26 UTC

  3 points

  0

  in reply to: Yoav Ravid’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  This should be fixed now (it was a timezone-related bug!)

• Adam B 28 Jul 2023 17:55 UTC

  6 points

  5

  in reply to: mukashi’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  I’ve made a basic version of Fatebook for Discord—you can install it here!

• Adam B 25 Jul 2023 12:31 UTC

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: mesaoptimizer’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  I’ve also added the ability to import your forecasts from a spreadsheet/​CSV file, which I think is also useful for switching tools: fatebook.io/​import-from-spreadsheet

• Adam B 25 Jul 2023 12:30 UTC

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: Raemon’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  This is now added (see below)

• Adam B 25 Jul 2023 12:29 UTC

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: Joe Kwon’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  I’ve now added this! You can also see your track record for questions with specific tags, e.g.:

  

  What links here?

  • Adam B's comment on In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions by Adam B (25 Jul 2023 12:30 UTC; 1 point)

• Adam B 25 Jul 2023 12:28 UTC

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: vyasnikhil96’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  Thanks, fixed!

• Adam B 15 Jul 2023 12:06 UTC

  3 points

  0

  in reply to: Arun Johnson’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  Cool thanks! For now you can use https://​​fatebook.io on your phone, do you think a native app would be much better?

• Adam B 13 Jul 2023 10:19 UTC

  4 points

  0

  in reply to: Aryeh Englander’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  Thanks for asking—I’m interested in doing iOS and Android apps! It’d be helpful to hear if other people are keen for this to help prioritise.

  For now, one option is to add a homescreen shortcut to the website in Chrome.

• Adam B 12 Jul 2023 15:31 UTC

  2 points

  0

  in reply to: Celarix’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  Thanks! And thanks for mentioning this bug where the contents of comments were lost—I’ve now fixed this, comments made from now on should be recorded properly.

• Adam B 12 Jul 2023 15:22 UTC

  21 points

  0

  in reply to: mesaoptimizer’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  I’ve added a feature to export all your forecasts to CSV, thanks for the suggestion!

  

• Adam B 12 Jul 2023 9:52 UTC

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: mukashi’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  Currently it’s not—just Slack and web. What would do you think you’d use it for in Discord?

• Adam B 12 Jul 2023 7:16 UTC

  2 points

  1

  in reply to: mesaoptimizer’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  I agree—I think data export is especially important for a prediction platform so you’re confident making long-run predictions.

  I’m planning to add import/​export to spreadsheet, and maybe also to JSON, probably this week. If anyone has thoughts about the format of this data lmk!

• Adam B 11 Jul 2023 17:35 UTC

  2 points

  0

  in reply to: Garrett Baker’s comment on: In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

  Glad to hear it!

  For PredictionBook users: you can import all your historical predictions to Fatebook here: https://​​fatebook.io/​​import-from-prediction-book

In­tro­duc­ing Fate­book: the fastest way to make and track predictions

Fate­book for Slack: Track your fore­casts, right where your team works

The Es­ti­ma­tion Game: a monthly Fermi es­ti­ma­tion web app